Southampton tonight

[Well b back 3,232]

Sorry @nutty nigel another, another club thread lol.

Absoloutely walloping Preston, just to show how hard any play off game will be.

Preston fans lol, losing 3:0 and singing Leeds are falling apart again.

[ricardo 7,395]

Preston on the beach after last Saturday.

[yellowrider120 766]

Indeed! I thought that R Martin had blown it after that late defeat down the road but they are closing in on the top three although it still looks a gap too far with games almost done.

Southampton away would be a much more 'pleasant' trip than the horrible, bear pit in West Yorkshire but are on the field chances might be better against the latter.

 

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,435]

5 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Preston on the beach after last Saturday.

Yup I think we ended their season . 

[Robert N. LiM 4,421]

4 minutes ago, yellowrider120 said:

it still looks a gap too far with games almost done.

Assuming they don't blow a 3-0 lead tonight, they're three points behind Leeds with a game in hand. And they play both Leeds and Leicester. It's a tough ask, for sure, but given the stuttering recent form of the top three, they're definitely still in it.

[cambridgeshire canary 6,752]

15 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Preston on the beach after last Saturday.

Resigned them to another season finishing outside the playoffs. Their match against us was last chance saloon and they knew it.

They've given up.

Edited April 16 by cambridgeshire canary

[Hairy Canary 705]

6 minutes ago, yellowrider120 said:

Indeed! I thought that R Martin had blown it after that late defeat down the road but they are closing in on the top three although it still looks a gap too far with games almost done.

Southampton away would be a much more 'pleasant' trip than the horrible, bear pit in West Yorkshire but are on the field chances might be better against the latter.

 

Their decision to go gung ho for the win when they were drawing two two at Ip5w1ch could come back and bite them on the bùm. A draw there would have given them one more point but more importantly rob the binners of two.

[GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,788]

I fear whichever of Leeds ,Leicester or Southampton we run into will result in watching their fans celebrating on the pitch in front of us after the second leg...

[River End Rocker 46]

Three goals has taken their goal difference to two less than Ipswich.  It's so tight that this could be a factor.  As it stands:

Ipswich 89pts,  32GD

Leicester 88pts 41GD

Leeds 87pts 42 GD

Soton 84pts 30 GD (1 game in hand)

 

[canarybubbles 1,924]

14 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said:

Their decision to go gung ho for the win when they were drawing two two at Ip5w1ch could come back and bite them on the bùm. A draw there would have given them one more point but more importantly rob the binners of two.

Absolutely. If that match had finished all square, Southampton would now be in control of their own destiny in the sense that if they won all their remaining matches they would be promoted. Now they need either Ipswich or Leicester to screw up.

[TheGunnShow 5,953]

Preston looked leggy in the last fifteen against us after a huge effort, so it's not that surprising that a fluent passing side in good form, like Southampton, has got stuck into them early on and got their rewards.

[Capt. Pants 4,261]

Hopefully Bristol City and Swansea will also be on the beach.

Can't see Southampton getting autos but they aren't going to finish lower than 4th. Do we really want 5th?

[nutty nigel 7,554]

9 minutes ago, TheGunnShow said:

Preston looked leggy in the last fifteen against us after a huge effort, so it's not that surprising that a fluent passing side in good form, like Southampton, has got stuck into them early on and got their rewards.

A lot of teams have tired against us. I think we're pretty much the fittest side in the Championship.

[River End Rocker 46]

I can see them pipping Leeds to 3rd. 

[yellowrider120 766]

5 minutes ago, Capt. Pants said:

Hopefully Bristol City and Swansea will also be on the beach.

Can't see Southampton getting autos but they aren't going to finish lower than 4th. Do we really want 5th?

If you intend to go to the away leg then Yes!

[Google Bot 3,294]

Looking at the fixtures, Saints play 3 games (4 if including tonight) before Scum even kick off again, how mad is that(?!).

[Well b back 3,232]

27 minutes ago, yellowrider120 said:

If you intend to go to the away leg then Yes!

Essex won’t be there, as he decided not to pay his £25

[repman 635]

1 hour ago, nutty nigel said:

A lot of teams have tired against us. I think we're pretty much the fittest side in the Championship.

Really?

I feel like we routinely fade as the game goes on, our default when sitting on a lead is to drop deep and I don't think I can recall many games this year where we've really ramped up the pressure in the last 10-15 minutes, even in games where we're behind. The most obvious case to me is Hull at home which was the opening day.

I'm not sure it's strictly a fitness issue though. It's probably more to do with older legs, and more recently lack of subs, combined with us not being a possession heavy side like under Farke. 

[nutty nigel 7,554]

39 minutes ago, repman said:

Really?

I feel like we routinely fade as the game goes on, our default when sitting on a lead is to drop deep and I don't think I can recall many games this year where we've really ramped up the pressure in the last 10-15 minutes, even in games where we're behind. The most obvious case to me is Hull at home which was the opening day.

I'm not sure it's strictly a fitness issue though. It's probably more to do with older legs, and more recently lack of subs, combined with us not being a possession heavy side like under Farke. 

I guess different things stick in different memories. We have been a decent second half team since Bonfire Night. I think we've only conceded 14 in the last 28. Check it out.

 

[repman 635]

14 hours ago, nutty nigel said:

I guess different things stick in different memories. We have been a decent second half team since Bonfire Night. I think we've only conceded 14 in the last 28. Check it out.

 

The underlying numbers suggest the opposite though, there's certainly the factor of game state which would lead to us perhaps sitting back and conceding more shots while taking less but I think the difference is still pretty stark.

Our xG difference in the first half since boxing day (last 20 games) comes out to an average of +0.25, so if we played like that for the full 90 we'd be around Ipswich but still below the other top 4 teams. In the 2nd half of games the average comes out at -0.15, which over a full 90 would equate to something like relegation standard.

This has been even more apparent in the last few games, which I guess would lead us back around to the subs debate.

[nutty nigel 7,554]

52 minutes ago, repman said:

The underlying numbers suggest the opposite though, there's certainly the factor of game state which would lead to us perhaps sitting back and conceding more shots while taking less but I think the difference is still pretty stark.

Our xG difference in the first half since boxing day (last 20 games) comes out to an average of +0.25, so if we played like that for the full 90 we'd be around Ipswich but still below the other top 4 teams. In the 2nd half of games the average comes out at -0.15, which over a full 90 would equate to something like relegation standard.

This has been even more apparent in the last few games, which I guess would lead us back around to the subs debate.

So what do you see? Do you see us continually being overrun at the end of games? I don’t.

Because someone decided to go from Jan with a smaller squad we have been playing three games a week with basically the same players. The binners game they made five subs and we basically made one. Yet we weren’t overrun.

xg I don’t really understand. I tried last season but it didn’t seem to mean anything when predicting future results. @hogesar would be your man.
 

[hogesar 9,704]

16 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

So what do you see? Do you see us continually being overrun at the end of games? I don’t.

Because someone decided to go from Jan with a smaller squad we have been playing three games a week with basically the same players. The binners game they made five subs and we basically made one. Yet we weren’t overrun.

xg I don’t really understand. I tried last season but it didn’t seem to mean anything when predicting future results. @hogesar would be your man.
 

No, I don't think we're continually overrun at the end of games, particularly at home.

There's game situations which xG doesn't account for and we've been good at scoring first or leading games first. Naturally that draws the other team out and they'll have shots. And with those shots, we can defend well and restrict them to 10 shots from stupid position outside the area but that may, combined, equal 0.4 xG or something. 

I do think the lack of a genuine striking option from the bench has really hindered us since Idah left. I personally think we win away vs QPR, possibly Blackburn but also Sheff Weds if we had a physical, pacey striker to come off the bench when resting Sargent. That's not Wagner's fault though.

[shefcanary 2,426]

10 minutes ago, hogesar said:

if we had a physical, pacey striker to come off the bench when resting Sargent. That's not Wagner's fault though.

I don't know if this is the case, but what if Aboh was such a player? I only say this because we've never had the opportunity of checking this out, neither has Wagner - it wouldn't be the first time there was a difference between training and the real thing for a player. Is that Wagner's fault? 

[hogesar 9,704]

11 minutes ago, shefcanary said:

I don't know if this is the case, but what if Aboh was such a player? I only say this because we've never had the opportunity of checking this out, neither has Wagner - it wouldn't be the first time there was a difference between training and the real thing for a player. Is that Wagner's fault? 

If, as a team pushing play-offs, we're having to rely on a completely unproven player to lead the line at critical parts of games, then I'd also suggest that's not Wagner's fault.

From what I've seen of Aboh when they've streamed U21 games, he seems to have good positioning and scores a lot of goals but he's certainly not been the hold-it-up, driving forwards, in behind sort of player who can lead the line in senior football at this stage. Performance wise, despite his goals, several of the U21s like Welch have often looked a bit better. But that's just opinions - although seemingly the coaches and management don't seem to overly disagree!

[Thirsty Lizard 3,169]

2 hours ago, repman said:

The underlying numbers suggest the opposite though, there's certainly the factor of game state which would lead to us perhaps sitting back and conceding more shots while taking less but I think the difference is still pretty stark.

Our xG difference in the first half since boxing day (last 20 games) comes out to an average of +0.25, so if we played like that for the full 90 we'd be around Ipswich but still below the other top 4 teams. In the 2nd half of games the average comes out at -0.15, which over a full 90 would equate to something like relegation standard.

This has been even more apparent in the last few games, which I guess would lead us back around to the subs debate.

Except all of four days ago when we scored a crucial 86th minute winner away from home. 

[nutty nigel 7,554]

I think if we weren’t fitter than the binners we would have been overrun at the end. The binners seem to have a reputation for being strong in the later stages but even without making subs we were comfortable. 

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,435]

Southampton have to win all of their remaining games for automatic. That isn’t going to happen. 

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,435]

On 17/04/2024 at 20:49, Graham Paddons Beard said:

Southampton have to win all of their remaining games for automatic. That isn’t going to happen. 

Hate to say I told you so but ….

[Canary Wundaboy 1,359]

Scum are going up because everyone around them is bottling it. So annoyed we took 4 points of them this season and it’s not going to stop them.

[Canary73 160]

The other way to look at is if Saints rest/rotate players in advance of the playoffs and gift points to Leicester and Leeds which would put pressure on the binners. Equally, next week's Huddersfield v B'ham game is going to be huge and both of them are probably going to need something from their final games.