The overhaul: this summer and beyond

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

I was about to post this in the 'Contract conundrums' thread, but decided there was enough to justify a new thread (a rare indulgence for me)… 

Now is an apposite time to look at the overhaul that might happen in the summer; for the purposes of this exercise, let's assume (as is most likely) that we will be playing in the Championship next season.

Here's a list of all the players who are out of contract this summer and next:

2024 McCallum, Mair, Barden (+1), Gibson, Giannoulis, Sørensen (+1), McCracken, Rose (+1), Riley (+1), Lima (loan), Batth (+1), van Hooijdonk (loan), Aboh (13 players, 6 with an extra year)
2025 Gunn, Hanley, Rowe (+1), Warner, Tomkinson (+1), Kamara, Shipley, Hills (+1), Clarke (+1) Hernandez (+1), Barnes, Fassnacht (+1), Montóia (+1), Long (14 players, 7 with an extra year)

At this juncture, I think it's fair to assume that none of the 'class of 2024' will be offered new contracts; one would expect that if both club and player wanted an extension it would've happened by now. Of course we could activate our option on the five players who have one, but my guess is that Sørensen is the only one we'd be actively seeking to keep for the extra year (and maybe possibly Barden).

As for those without an option, one expects that Gibson's advancing age and high wages, coupled with the development of McLean as a left-footed centre back, will mean that he leaves. I expect Giannoulis will probably get offers from top-tier clubs on the continent, and Aboh has apparently already decided he's on his way. McCallum is an odd one; I'd be happy to keep him on, but it appears that either player or club (or both) are in no hurry to continue the relationship.

As for the others, I'd assume that Mair and McCracken will probably leave. Pedro Lima is a defensively minded midfielder, which is something our squad could use – can anyone offer any insight as to how he's been performing for the U23s? And as for SVH, I think his performances so far are making a lot of fans realise that it's probably wiser to continue investing in Idah's development.

Next summer offers some very interesting conundrums – none more so than Angus. I think he'd be extremely difficult to replace, and if he's happy to stay then I'd expect him to be offered a deal on a par with our top earners. Hanley and Barnes are unlikely to be here beyond 2025, although I'd expect them to be part of the squad next season (although it's possible that Barnes might fancy a fresh start elsewhere). I doubt Fassnacht or Hernandez would be offered extensions to 2026.

The other big name there is Rowe; obviously we'd activate the extra year if it got to that point, but given his form this season and his experience with England U21s, I think he's the most likely one to be 'turned' for a big profit this summer. If he wants to stay, of course we should keep him – one would expect Attanasio's part-ownership to be rubberstamped before the summer window opens (we live in hope…), which should give us a little more financial flexibility. If Jonny has top-flight suitors and wants to go this summer, it'd make sense to cash in to the fullest on the 'young and English' premium.

As for the others on the 2025 list, hopefully our academy enthusiasts can offer some insight into which of our young loan players is most likely to make the grade: Warner, Kamara, Tomkinson, Shipley, Montóia and Hills are all out of contract (Tomkinson, Montóia and Hills with an option). Montóia and Shipley are left-backs, so with Giannoulis and McCallum potentially leaving, it'll be interesting to see if the academy team believe they're worth trying to invest as first-team options.

That just leaves Clarke (who I can't believe we're still paying wages to after his appalling behaviour and subsequent prison time), and Long (who may or may not be retained as a backup, depending on whether any of our multitudinous young goalkeepers make the grade).

There is certainly the potential for a huge overhaul of players during the summer window. I'm interested to hear people's views on the synopsis above!

Edited March 12 by Feedthewolf

[Indy 3,301]

Interesting reading, I guess it really depends on who comes in should we not go up! 
I’d think both Sorensen & McCallum will be staying, the rest are higher wages and will be released to free up money!

There are so many variables at this time but suffice to say no promotion might see an acceleration of MA full takeover and Knapper ring the changes with Cuesta possibly coming in! Might be a lot of young loan players next year, probably lots of academy players stepping up too, I just don’t see us spending much!

Another pivotal summer coming up, but we are short of numbers at the squad come this summer!

[BroadstairsR 2,179]

"and Aboh has apparently already decided he's on his way." This stood out for me as he was used on Saturday. Seems strange.

What's behind this?

 

[Gordon Bennett 786]

17 minutes ago, BroadstairsR said:

"and Aboh has apparently already decided he's on his way." This stood out for me as he was used on Saturday. Seems strange.

What's behind this?

 

His agent promising him riches elsewhere I'd imagine.

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

10 hours ago, BroadstairsR said:

"and Aboh has apparently already decided he's on his way." This stood out for me as he was used on Saturday. Seems strange.

What's behind this?

I must admit I'm only passing on second-hand tittle-tattle here, but others on here (can't remember who, sorry!) have said that the club have tried to get him to sign a new deal but he has refused as he (no doubt aided by the sweet nothings being whispered by his agent) believes he can do better elsewhere. Of course one can hope that making his first-team debut might sway his decision more towards staying, but I think the most likely outcome is him 'doing a Matos' and joining the loan farm of a bigger club.

Edited March 12 by Feedthewolf

[dylanisabaddog 4,932]

I know I'm biased but I'm baffled by the likes of Matos and Aboh leaving the club. We have a long history of blooding young players and moving them on to big clubs where they earn huge amounts. 

But they listen to their agents and sign for clubs like Chelsea. They'll spend the next 3 years living in hotels in the outskirts of the likes of Walsall and Doncaster. Why on earth don't they look at the history of young players at clubs like that? 

[Ulfotto 637]

21 minutes ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I know I'm biased but I'm baffled by the likes of Matos and Aboh leaving the club. We have a long history of blooding young players and moving them on to big clubs where they earn huge amounts. 

But they listen to their agents and sign for clubs like Chelsea. They'll spend the next 3 years living in hotels in the outskirts of the likes of Walsall and Doncaster. Why on earth don't they look at the history of young players at clubs like that? 

Wholeheartedly agree.

But on the other hand it’s a lot easier to get first team exposure if your club writes into the loan agreement!

[Ulfotto 637]

On the contracts I think the club is still hedging its bets on what division we will be in next season.

 I would expect all those out of contract to go. But giving away two decent championship level left backs is stupid if you ask me. Likewise Sorensen is a decent utility player at this level. I although it’s not popular I would at least be sounding out Gibson about a new deal. For me he’s been our best centre half this season and again left footed centre backs who are capable at playing out from the back do not grow on trees at championship level.

[Mr.Carrow 376]

I'd have thought Rowe would be most likely to be sold due to a mixture of his less than ideal contract situation, him being less vital to us than Gunn, Sara or Sargent (see recent results whilst he's been out) and the fact we have a ready replacement in Kamara earning rave reviews at Portsmouth.

[Robert N. LiM 4,392]

Excellent OP, so full that there doesn't seem a lot to add.

Will be mildly interested to see how Fassnacht does next season, especially if we're in the Champs. I think he's a good player: not out of the realms of possibility that he gets more effective for us on the basis of a year's experience in the Champs. But on the other side of that he was clearly Wagner's signing and it's difficult to imagine DW still being here when that decision is made.

[repman 635]

Agree that most of the expiring contracts this summer won't be renewed, there's maybe a chance with Sorensen but he could easily find himself crowded out again and he might not be too keen for that either. There's certainly a lot of work to do over the summer, realistically I think we should've started the rebuild last summer instead of doubling down but there's still a chance it will work out in the end so can't complain really. I think we're going to need at least 4/5 of the academy players to hit or we could be looking at a few years before a turnaround.

Just a point on Lima, when he was signed he was talked about as being a DM but from what I understand he's played more like a number 10 this year. Scored 5 goals in PL2 (including a couple of great strikes), perhaps would've been around the squad right now had he not got injured.

[ncfcstar 292]

I'm not sure about Rowe being sold, or certainly not for the money we would hope to get for him.  His injury record isn't ideal, and it would take a PL club to be prepared to risk significant money on a player who has yet to complete a full season as a pro. 

I also think a few more of these contracts would probably have been tied up already if the club knew they were definitely going to be playing in the Championship next season.  As long as that Playoff place is on offer, I can understand why both clubs and players don't want to commit to new deals.

As for Aboh, I'd imagine he has no guarantees he'd be playing a significant part in the first XI next season - and more than likely would be sent out on loan.  The same probably applies if he signs for one of the big clubs, if his agent thinks he can get paid 5x or 10x what we're offering and essentially end up in exactly the same position, then I can understand why that would be tempting.

[Nuff Said 5,146]

8 minutes ago, ncfcstar said:

I'm not sure about Rowe being sold, or certainly not for the money we would hope to get for him.  His injury record isn't ideal, and it would take a PL club to be prepared to risk significant money on a player who has yet to complete a full season as a pro. 

Agreed on Rowe, his current injury could well either affect his value, or put suitors off completely. Once is unremarkable, but for him to miss significant chunks of two seasons in a row (no pun intended) isn’t a good look.

[sgncfc 1,228]

2 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I know I'm biased but I'm baffled by the likes of Matos and Aboh leaving the club. We have a long history of blooding young players and moving them on to big clubs where they earn huge amounts. 

But they listen to their agents and sign for clubs like Chelsea. They'll spend the next 3 years living in hotels in the outskirts of the likes of Walsall and Doncaster. Why on earth don't they look at the history of young players at clubs like that? 

Would it be because Chelsea will pay them £30k a week to stay in a hotel in Huddersfield (or similar)?

[Nuff Said 5,146]

10 minutes ago, sgncfc said:

Would it be because Chelsea will pay them £30k a week to stay in a hotel in Huddersfield (or similar)?

Works for me. Make it £35K and I’d even consider Ipswich.

[hogesar 9,690]

Good post @Feedthewolf

I personally think Knapper wanted an easier ride and that would have been us missing out on play-offs quite comfortably, Wagner moving on and him being able to shape a whole squad around his ethos. Instead, we're in the play-offs 

I also think that's why he made a pretty suicidal decision in my book to loan out Idah and bring in SvH.

I suspect you're not far wrong with the renewal offerings - I think Sorensen will be offered something due to his covering of multiple positions and a good age but if he'll want it or not will depend on who else is interested.

I'm a little concerned if SvH is the sort of striker Knapper think's is suitable for us trying to push for promotion from the Championship. But, he has to be given time and opportunity to build a squad to his own "specification". I'm recording my doubts now but would love to be proven wrong.

I therefore think we're looking to sell Idah. If he scored a good amount of goals before the end of the season Celtic may commit a decent fee which we can use to help rebuild.

Rowe then seems the obvious next target but depends how Sara finishes the season two. At least one of those two will move on assuming we're not promoted.

[NewNestCarrow 193]

3 hours ago, Feedthewolf said:

 

2024 McCallum, Mair, Barden (+1), Gibson, Giannoulis, Sørensen (+1), McCracken, Rose (+1), Riley (+1), Lima (loan), Batth (+1), van Hooijdonk (loan), Aboh (13 players, 6 with an extra year)

2025 Gunn, Hanley, Rowe (+1), Warner, Tomkinson (+1), Kamara, Shipley, Hills (+1), Clarke (+1) Hernandez (+1), Barnes, Fassnacht (+1), Montóia (+1), Long (14 players, 7 with an extra year)

As I see it: 

Batth, McCracken & Rose are gone. Prob Giannoulis and Aboh as well (Ken’s agent is likely ignoring the fact that Matos is now warming the bench for a relegation-threatened side) 

Barden & Sorenson will prob get their Options triggered, maybe Riley too. 

 

Mair is performing at a reasonable level & I would be surprised if he was let go. 

I’d like to keep Gibson & McCallum but the economics / talent logjam may just not work (see John Ruddy) 

 

You have to think that Hills, Shipley, Tomkinson & Warner will all be feeling they are worthy of places in the first-team squad (if not at Norwich then somewhere else). 

 

The things we don’t know: 

How NCFC rank our young CBs, and if any/all of them are ready for tier 2 football next season. Jon Tomkinson aims to be repping USA at the Paris Olympics and NCFC may view that as a prominent shop window) 

How NCFC rank our GK squadron (in my view Gunn>Long>Barden>Mair>Berry>Reyes) 

How much spare cash there is swilling around (Thanks, Mark!)  

If player-rankings have been materially changed by Knapper’s fresh eye. 

 

[Monty13 2,235]

34 minutes ago, hogesar said:

Good post @Feedthewolf

I personally think Knapper wanted an easier ride and that would have been us missing out on play-offs quite comfortably, Wagner moving on and him being able to shape a whole squad around his ethos. Instead, we're in the play-offs 

I also think that's why he made a pretty suicidal decision in my book to loan out Idah and bring in SvH.

I suspect you're not far wrong with the renewal offerings - I think Sorensen will be offered something due to his covering of multiple positions and a good age but if he'll want it or not will depend on who else is interested.

I'm a little concerned if SvH is the sort of striker Knapper think's is suitable for us trying to push for promotion from the Championship. But, he has to be given time and opportunity to build a squad to his own "specification". I'm recording my doubts now but would love to be proven wrong.

I therefore think we're looking to sell Idah. If he scored a good amount of goals before the end of the season Celtic may commit a decent fee which we can use to help rebuild.

Rowe then seems the obvious next target but depends how Sara finishes the season two. At least one of those two will move on assuming we're not promoted.

I think it’s Sargent that’s going to be in high demand in the summer if we don’t go up, which really creates a big problem up top.

Barnes too old, Idah wants away, so does Aboh by all accounts and SVH not showing any signs yet of being a replacement for either Sarge, Barnes or Idah.

I’ll be sad to see Rowe off in the summer but if it happens he’s the one I’m least concerned about from our marketable players personally.

[Ulfotto 637]

1 hour ago, hogesar said:

think we're looking to sell Idah. If he scored a good amount of goals before the end of the season Celtic may commit a decent fee which we can use to help rebuild.

This is a worry to me the only way we sell Idah is a guarantee that we keep Sargent for at least one more season. If we are looking to sell Sargent then Idah should stay put.
 

People seem to forget the price tags associated with strikers. Four years ago Hugill cost 3.5 million this season Josh Sims cost 5 million.

[Capt. Pants 4,250]

I think we have to accept that at least one of Rowe, Sara, Sargent, possibly Gunn will leave in the summer.

However, it just feels that just so much is in limbo at the moment what with the ownership, possibly Head Coach, players out of contract, heck we don't even know what Division we'll be in, that it's really difficult to guess what will happen.

I hope we keep Sorensen and McCallum and all our starlets, but wouldn't be surprised if we are willing to listen to offers for anyone with a pulse if it means we can improve the overall squad.

Worryingly we might have to replace Sargent and Idah which ain't going to be cheap.

[repman 635]

1 hour ago, Monty13 said:

I think it’s Sargent that’s going to be in high demand in the summer if we don’t go up, which really creates a big problem up top.

Barnes too old, Idah wants away, so does Aboh by all accounts and SVH not showing any signs yet of being a replacement for either Sarge, Barnes or Idah.

I’ll be sad to see Rowe off in the summer but if it happens he’s the one I’m least concerned about from our marketable players personally.

I do wonder if part of the plan is to try to get good money for Idah and Tzolis which might make it possible to only need to sell one of Rowe/Sara/Sargent.

Rowe sadly seems like the obvious player to go, there might even be an element of selling high on him, I think he's brilliant but it's not a huge sample to go off yet and the worries about injuries will always be there.

[shefcanary 2,410]

I would join in with this but there are three major factors to consider before Knapper even gets a shot at rebuilding. 

First of course is what league will we be in. If we get up by the play-offs, the earliest that any of our squad get to sit back and consider is going to be the 28th May with the window opening on 1 July. I'm assuming we will qualify for the play-offs now, so even if we don't make the final, the squad will only be released for their summer break on 20th May.

Then there is the Euro's and the Copa America which means a large number of our squad will be away from mid June until potentially the 14 July (Sarge, Hanley, McLean, Gunn, Nunez). Okay so most will be back before the respective finals, but with some form of break thereafter plenty will not be back at Colney until 23 July earliest. I assume England, Scotland, Republic of Ireland, Chile and Brazil will have younger representative tournaments involving some of our younger talent as well (Rowe, Sainz, Reyes, Adegboyate, Hills, etc.) How our players perform in those tournaments will also dictate what will happen to them during the window. 

Finally there is the conundrum of when the EFL will finally give Attanasio the nod, and what his plans for the club thereafter will be. Of course a lot will be down to which league we are in and what funds Attanasio et al have set aside for the "Norfolk project". Will they have money available so they are prepared to offer salaries to encourage players to at least give it another year, or will they just rein in expenditure and start again from "ground zero" after a mass sell-off. Or more likely somewhere in between where what happens very much depends on what we are prepared to accept for certain players.

Given all the above is it really so surprising no serious discussions with players coming to the end of their contracts has started yet? Whether that increases the risk of losing a player who in hindsight we may have tied down to a new contract will be one for the memoirs of those players concerned in 10 years or so.

Any discussion about the squad at this stage is so dependent upon a number of factors I really can't get my head around it yet. Come back to me around the start of the window.

But it will be frantic stuff on here during the period from mid-July to end August.

[Creedence Clearwater Couto 1,288]

5 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I know I'm biased but I'm baffled by the likes of Matos and Aboh leaving the club. We have a long history of blooding young players and moving them on to big clubs where they earn huge amounts. 

But they listen to their agents and sign for clubs like Chelsea. They'll spend the next 3 years living in hotels in the outskirts of the likes of Walsall and Doncaster. Why on earth don't they look at the history of young players at clubs like that? 

But we neglected that in Farke’s last Prem campaign and the subsequent Championship campaigns under Smith (bar Rowe) and Wagner. Matos should’ve been playing under Smith, and then Aboh following on. 

Clearly the club recognises the above and with Knapper at the helm making moves back to the 2018/19 strategy. 

Hopefuly after Aboh, we don’t see this happen again.

Edited March 12 by Creedence Clearwater Couto

[Creedence Clearwater Couto 1,288]

2 hours ago, Ulfotto said:

This is a worry to me the only way we sell Idah is a guarantee that we keep Sargent for at least one more season. If we are looking to sell Sargent then Idah should stay put.
 

People seem to forget the price tags associated with strikers. Four years ago Hugill cost 3.5 million this season Josh Sims cost 5 million.

If we sell Sargent and don’t replace him and go with Idah leading the line, I’ll be seriously pissed off.

[Ulfotto 637]

26 minutes ago, Creedence Clearwater Couto said:

Matos should’ve been playing under Smith, and then Aboh following on. 

So you following relegation you would have put your faith in a youth player who has never played a senior game or any international recognition ahead of Cantwell, Rashica, Dowell, Rowe, Hernandez, Ramsay, Sara, Nunez etc… that is a big call. There is fault in both sides but ultimately I think if Matos would have signed his contract he would have made a few first team appearances by now.

[NewNestCarrow 193]

51 minutes ago, Creedence Clearwater Couto said:

But we neglected that in Farke’s last Prem campaign and the subsequent Championship campaigns under Smith (bar Rowe) and Wagner. Matos should’ve been playing under Smith, and then Aboh following on.

So you believe that Matos - who today is not holding down a place in a relegation-threatened Hudds side - should, 18 months ago,  have been given a place in our promotion-seeking squad? 

 

[Creedence Clearwater Couto 1,288]

29 minutes ago, NewNestCarrow said:

So you believe that Matos - who today is not holding down a place in a relegation-threatened Hudds side - should, 18 months ago,  have been given a place in our promotion-seeking squad? 

 

Yeah.

[Corbs1 89]

EFL player of the week to watch Walsall's Emmanuel Adegboyega, on loan 

[Mr.Carrow 376]

4 hours ago, Corbs1 said:

EFL player of the week to watch Walsall's Emmanuel Adegboyega, on loan 

Of all our  CB talent, he's the one (like Omo before him) who ticks every box. Tomkinson's form is encouraging, but he's got a lot to prove being older and not really having the physical attributes of Adegboyega. Similar with Warner. 

[canarybubbles 1,923]

6 hours ago, Mr.Carrow said:

Of all our  CB talent, he's the one (like Omo before him) who ticks every box. Tomkinson's form is encouraging, but he's got a lot to prove being older and not really having the physical attributes of Adegboyega. Similar with Warner. 

Also people on Canary Call will be able to say Tomkinson and Warner (probably). Adegboyega is going to be much more fun.

Edited March 13 by canarybubbles