Josh to Brentford?

[repman 635]

10 minutes ago, Mason 47 said:

Can't say I agree. We create some chances but it's unusual to say 'if only Josh had scored that'. Despite his rate of goals, he often scores from 1-or-2 openings and I'd suspect his stats show he's lethal- happy to be proven wrong. The point is meant to be that I believe if he had been fit all season he- and us- would be much higher up the rankings.

RE the second quote, well sure, maybe. If you think we won't have any reason to sell anyone in summer, I feel that's a little naive. It'll be a totally new generation of Norwich City come game 1 next year.

He's scored 11 goals from an xG of 7.3 so he has been clinical. He's certainly running hot, basically scoring every 3rd shot he takes, when his career norm (and for strikers generally) is more around 1 in 6, maybe 1 in 5 for top finishers. However we are creating more and better chances for him compared to previous years, and that is usually a bigger driver in more goals than improved finishing.

[Mason 47 1,379]

16 minutes ago, repman said:

He's scored 11 goals from an xG of 7.3 so he has been clinical. He's certainly running hot, basically scoring every 3rd shot he takes, when his career norm (and for strikers generally) is more around 1 in 6, maybe 1 in 5 for top finishers. However we are creating more and better chances for him compared to previous years, and that is usually a bigger driver in more goals than improved finishing.

Is the comparison with previous years taking into account his playing as the main striker? Not being divisive in particular, especially as my point was that if he'd been playing all season we'd be a lot more worried about losing him.

In my opinion Rowe and Sara are respectively most likely to be sold in summer, the former practically impossible to hold on to. Sarge I think is demonstrating good data but with too many questions to be a top risk.

[......and Smith must score. 1,343]

2 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

Josh is head and shoulders our best striker option at the moment. We can see that from how his long injury hurt us. We can't afford to let him go unless there's an alternative lined up who's at least as good.

For the money we’re prepared to pay out I wouldn’t hold your breath on getting a player in at least as good.

[chicken 2,625]

2 hours ago, Sufyellow said:

He is the quality to build round, same with Rowe and Sara , we also have a couple doing well on loan,  we are close to a Decent team,  so let's sell and start again,  then what same again and again? It doesn't work if the ambition is to compete bottom half of premier league. 

It actually does work, and much higher up... Leicester, Brentford and Brighton are good examples of more recent teams that bought younger players with potential, maximised their value by playing them, which in turn got them places, and then sold, to redistribute the value better amongst the squad.

Doesn't always work out that way, as we found with Buendia and Leicester found with a few of their players - but it is a method that works, because largely, that is the method that the majority of teams go for. A blend of youth with potential to be on the up, experience that is around the level you are and experienced players on the way down.

As for your comment about Pukki being better than Sargent... Pukki's only real success was for his national side and for us. Outside of that he wasn't. Arguably Sargent has already proven he can be in the Bundesliga and did well for a player played out of his natural position in his first season of English football. He did the same last season, he actually out-scored Pukki last season despite playing many games out wide of Pukki.

That's not to say Pukki was rubbish, he clearly wasn't, just that if you compare their careers at like for like moments, Sargent is better now, than Pukki was at the same age.

[aBee 151]

I suspect the rumour may be agent talk more than anything else. Quite a few agents have realised whispering out loud about interest from Brentford or Brighton can fish out interest in players from richer clubs on the basis of both having a good record of buying young and undervalued players. 
 

With the caveat that I haven’t seen Sargent playing this season, I’m not sure from what I remember previously he fits the pace and power model we’ve said we want in the PL. His recent scoring form is v good but only over a third of a season. If he finishes on 25 for the season he’ll certainly have shown potential to step back up as still young (he’d then have about the same 2 Championship season tally as Maupay at a similar age going to Brighton or Gyokeres)  but extrapolating his current form over the rest of the season is somewhat blunt as an analysis. £30m would sound a lot, particularly if it meant we didn’t exercise our option to buy Maupay for £8m as he’ll probably end up with about 10 goals this season  (similar level to Pukki in the PL even if Dyche has described him as absolute rubbish!). 

 

But if he is on the radar I think it’d probably be more for a wide forward role when Mbeumo is sold than as a Toney replacement as that seems already to have been secured in buying Thiago from Club Brugge. It’s not been the best season so far but still OK after having had so many players out for so much of the season. If we manage to eke out another 3 wins I think we’ll be safe and do much better next season. It ought not to be too disappointing a move even if you get promoted. 

[S_81 795]

They’ve signed a new striker already. I think Rowe to Brentford is far more likely than Josh. 

[Robert N. LiM 4,356]

1 hour ago, aBee said:

With the caveat that I haven’t seen Sargent playing this season, I’m not sure from what I remember previously he fits the pace and power model we’ve said we want in the PL.

 

1 hour ago, aBee said:

But if he is on the radar I think it’d probably be more for a wide forward role

Nice to see you back on here. Though it sticks in the throat a bit, I do hope you stay up and I'm sure you will.

I agree that the Sarge to the Bees seems like a very unlikely move, but just on your quotes above, he's been playing as a no.9 this season (bit of a false 9 at times) and looks miles better than when he was stuck out wide (with the caveat that of course he's now playing in the league below). Plenty of power, not a great deal of pace - but he is scoring goals. He's a central striker.

[Mason 47 1,379]

1 hour ago, aBee said:

With the caveat that I haven’t seen Sargent playing this season, I’m not sure from what I remember previously he fits the pace and power model we’ve said we want in the PL. His recent scoring form is v good but only over a third of a season. 

This is what I was referencing earlier. Not a criticism of the poster at all, but if you watch Sargent live regularly you can see that he's exactly the pace + power the top level loves. Our (NCFC) biggest asset with Sargent is that his injury means teams above probably aren't convinced. Yet.

[aBee 151]

1 hour ago, Robert N. LiM said:

 

Nice to see you back on here. Though it sticks in the throat a bit, I do hope you stay up and I'm sure you will.

I agree that the Sarge to the Bees seems like a very unlikely move, but just on your quotes above, he's been playing as a no.9 this season (bit of a false 9 at times) and looks miles better than when he was stuck out wide (with the caveat that of course he's now playing in the league below). Plenty of power, not a great deal of pace - but he is scoring goals. He's a central striker.

Thanks- I’ve been occasionally lurking but with us being rather closer to the bottom three than I’d like have deliberately not got too involved in the Championship, particularly as there’s not even the fun of seeing Leeds fall flat. 
 

Having bought Thiago who seems to have a very Toney skill set it’d be quite bold if we bought another central striker. That said, as a young player with no English experience, maybe having more options and competition up front would be a thing the club wants, particularly after this season’s experience of a lack of squad depth. Having made profits in our first two seasons up and probably a sub £10m loss this season if we stay up I think there would be budget within FFP for a major squad refresh and upgrade, particularly if Arsenal keep Raya and someone pays £50m+ for Toney. So I’m not ruling it out.

 

1 hour ago, Mason 47 said:

This is what I was referencing earlier. Not a criticism of the poster at all, but if you watch Sargent live regularly you can see that he's exactly the pace + power the top level loves. Our (NCFC) biggest asset with Sargent is that his injury means teams above probably aren't convinced. Yet.

Well i’m only a fan so admit to having limited time to watch you! But our scouting operation will have done a lot more if interested and typically will have looked and made quiet contact very early (we didn’t get him in the end but approached Forest for Brennan Johnson when he was still on loan at Lincoln). That early interest and follow up has helped to establish us with players and good agents and clubs as offering good pathways. The club rather liked a few of Leeds’ young US players even after they were panned last season so can see beyond surface stuff. And we got Toney when others wanted to wait and see if he could cut it at Championship level. 
 

Also, having mentioned him before, if we don’t exercise the option on Maupay and you stay down, he’d probably be offloaded by Everton cheaply and would easily score heavily in the Championship for you for a lot less than you might sell Sargent. 

[RobJames 881]

"if we stay up"

 

And that is why the Sun bloke is talking out of his arz., as usual. Just rummaging around and trying to cobble together something that sounds possible. It could be that we actually swap places come next season. Not too likely at the moment, and not even any probability that either of us will be changing leagues.

However what it does show is that for most of those outside the top six or so they are annually playing relegation ;musical chairs' and one season can change dramatically from another - so speculation on our relative positions is just that, or maybe not even that, speculation.

If we dont go up then I expect a number of our players will be tempted by vastly increased wages at PL clubs, contrary to what the bleats on here would have. Norwich are selling the player like he has been taken down to cash converters. Rowe is a Wembley lad so I am sure were you still in the PL the wages you could offer would surely encourage him to move. Is that move caused us 'selling' or him wanting a move ?

That arrangement is how we signed Godfrey, Aarons, Lewis. Maddison, Buendia. That's how it is. Unfortunately reality doesn't sit well if your (not you) intent is to criticise our club. 

[aBee 151]

15 minutes ago, RobJames said:

"if we stay up"

 

And that is why the Sun bloke is talking out of his arz., as usual. Just rummaging around and trying to cobble together something that sounds possible. It could be that we actually swap places come next season. Not too likely at the moment, and not even any probability that either of us will be changing leagues.

However what it does show is that for most of those outside the top six or so they are annually playing relegation ;musical chairs' and one season can change dramatically from another - so speculation on our relative positions is just that, or maybe not even that, speculation.

If we dont go up then I expect a number of our players will be tempted by vastly increased wages at PL clubs, contrary to what the bleats on here would have. Norwich are selling the player like he has been taken down to cash converters. Rowe is a Wembley lad so I am sure were you still in the PL the wages you could offer would surely encourage him to move. Is that move caused us 'selling' or him wanting a move ?

That arrangement is how we signed Godfrey, Aarons, Lewis. Maddison, Buendia. That's how it is. Unfortunately reality doesn't sit well if your (not you) intent is to criticise our club. 

Well if he’s looking for a big payday Brentford is probably not the club for him! Our wage bill even now is lower than yours was when we went up together 3 years ago and our highest paid players are well short of the average PL wage of c£85k a week. I’d imagine Sargent as a player who you bought in the PL may have had a wage cut on relegation but we probably wouldn’t be offering a huge uplift on his PL wage at Norwich. 
 

I’ve been a bit surprised at how few clubs get sucked into relegation musical chairs. Apart from the promoted clubs the others tend to be bottom 6 regulars unless they make big errors like last season. We’ve really only been dragged into it by having an injury list second only to Newcastle’s and they’ve both dropped a lot from last season’s levels and had a much greater set of starting resources. Palace are perennially mediocre and missing their only two really good players but are likely to survive comfortably. 

[Canario 205]

9 hours ago, littleyellowbirdie said:

I don't think Sargent is as hot property as Buendia by a longshot.

And nowhere near as good a footballer! 

Brentford / Palace / Wolves I can see. Nobody above that level. 

[littleyellowbirdie 2,550]

18 minutes ago, Canario said:

And nowhere near as good a footballer! 

Brentford / Palace / Wolves I can see. Nobody above that level. 

I don't really get why people obsess about this so much. We definitely have all of these players for the rest of the season; what happens beyond then will largely depend on how we finish up this season; where we finish up depends on how we do game by game. And whereas there'll be outgoings, there'll also be incomings, none of which we'll have a clue about at this point.

All in all I think these conversations tend to be so speculative as to be pretty pointless given that probably not even the players or the club know much more than we do at this point.

[Canario 205]

All we can hope for is a good amount. Yes, goals are worth a premium but if we got around 30odd for a once in a generación talent like Emi, then Josh could fetch 20 plus another 5 for London weighting 😉

Football these days is totally mad though so 40m or buy a binner!

[Sufyellow 222]

13 hours ago, RobJames said:

Absolutely NOT. By selling it has allowed us extra money over and above what the usual income streams provide.

EVERY club, bar the top six, sells players, as there is always someone with more money, as we were able to do to Leeds.

Player ales are a bonus not a means of survival.

That's not true ,we need to sell to balance the books , we have done for a long time. 

[Sufyellow 222]

12 hours ago, Mason 47 said:

Can't say I agree. We create some chances but it's unusual to say 'if only Josh had scored that'. Despite his rate of goals, he often scores from 1-or-2 openings and I'd suspect his stats show he's lethal- happy to be proven wrong. The point is meant to be that I believe if he had been fit all season he- and us- would be much higher up the rankings.

RE the second quote, well sure, maybe. If you think we won't have any reason to sell anyone in summer, I feel that's a little naive. It'll be a totally new generation of Norwich City come game 1 next year.

He missed 2 decent chances Saturday,  missed a couple against Cardiff as well. He is very similar as in pukki ,we play to his strengths. 

[Sufyellow 222]

11 hours ago, chicken said:

It actually does work, and much higher up... Leicester, Brentford and Brighton are good examples of more recent teams that bought younger players with potential, maximised their value by playing them, which in turn got them places, and then sold, to redistribute the value better amongst the squad.

Doesn't always work out that way, as we found with Buendia and Leicester found with a few of their players - but it is a method that works, because largely, that is the method that the majority of teams go for. A blend of youth with potential to be on the up, experience that is around the level you are and experienced players on the way down.

As for your comment about Pukki being better than Sargent... Pukki's only real success was for his national side and for us. Outside of that he wasn't. Arguably Sargent has already proven he can be in the Bundesliga and did well for a player played out of his natural position in his first season of English football. He did the same last season, he actually out-scored Pukki last season despite playing many games out wide of Pukki.

That's not to say Pukki was rubbish, he clearly wasn't, just that if you compare their careers at like for like moments, Sargent is better now, than Pukki was at the same age.

How many goals did pukki score in the 2 championship winning seasons? Yet you choose his last season with us. Sargent has done nothing yet compared to Pukki , the Premier league is totally another level.  

[dylanisabaddog 4,924]

Comparing Pukki and Sargent just doesn't work, they are completely different players. And Pukki relied almost solely on Emi for his goals. He looked like a fish out of water when Emi left. 

[Sooty57 403]

18 hours ago, RobJames said:

It's in the Sun !

Nailed on then! 😁

[Serinus canaria 14]

I wonder how much the club would consider selling him for?

Interested to see where his career peaks. I can think of a few strikers over the years who were very impressive at Championship level but fairly anonymous in the PL, but he does seem to have the attributes so I imagine some are considering bids this Summer.

[dylanisabaddog 4,924]

At least if he goes to Brentford he'll feel at home 

[repman 635]

22 hours ago, Mason 47 said:

Is the comparison with previous years taking into account his playing as the main striker? Not being divisive in particular, especially as my point was that if he'd been playing all season we'd be a lot more worried about losing him.

In my opinion Rowe and Sara are respectively most likely to be sold in summer, the former practically impossible to hold on to. Sarge I think is demonstrating good data but with too many questions to be a top risk.

Him playing up front instead of out wide has definitely led to him having more chances, and better ones too. The xG per shot for last season was 0.11 and this season it's 0.19. Overall last year his xG was 10.5 so he's not far off last seasons total but with about a third of the games played.

It's a good example of how strikers and their goal scoring numbers are often a result of their environment and not necessarily something intrinsic about them. Pukki's goals and xG numbers matched up every season he was here, the only difference was that in the championship he had better quality chances more often than he did in the PL. His finishing wasn't worse at all, it's an issue of quantity not quality.

[Thirsty Lizard 3,165]

One thing I do know about Sargent and Teemu. There's no way in a trillion years that Pukki would have scored the goal that Sargent did on Saturday. Sargent is far more of an all round centre forward than Teemu (brilliant though Teemu was for us). 

[chicken 2,625]

11 hours ago, dylanisabaddog said:

Comparing Pukki and Sargent just doesn't work, they are completely different players. And Pukki relied almost solely on Emi for his goals. He looked like a fish out of water when Emi left. 

This isn't entirely true, Emi didn't have more assists to support that argument, especially in the premier league season.

I think that side was reliant upon Emi more for his ability to move the ball quickly and cleverly. 

[chicken 2,625]

12 hours ago, Sufyellow said:

How many goals did pukki score in the 2 championship winning seasons? Yet you choose his last season with us. Sargent has done nothing yet compared to Pukki , the Premier league is totally another level.  

How to read something and take away completely the wrong information.

I basically said it is far too soon to say who is the better player. If you are talking about just Norwich, then yes, sure. But if you are talking about who will achieve more in their careers... score more goals etc. Jury is out. 

For comparisons sake in terms of like for like age wise.

Josh is 24. from 2018-22 he scored 13 gls in 79 appearances in the Bundesliga for Bremen, leaving at age 21. He then signed for us in the Premier League and mainly played out wide for two seasons, scoring 17gls in 70 appearances. He's then been played predominantly up front this season, scoring 11gls in 17 appearances.

Teemu Pukki at 24 had flopped and been loaned to Brondby by Celtic. Scored 8 goals in 47 appearances for Schalke across three seasons. Followed by 9 goals in 37 appearances for Celtic. To put that into perspective, Idah has scored 5 goals in 7 appearances at around the same age as Pukki was at Celtic.

Pukki was amazing for us because we were set up to play to him. Despite some comments on here, we are not actually set up to play to Sargent in the same way, we have struggled with multiple injuries at similar times to the likes of Barnes, Sargent, Rowe, Sainz etc. 

[Jimmy Raggatip 60]

On 03/03/2024 at 11:29, Capt. Pants said:

I think he's better than Brentford and there will be several clubs interested. 

what's the biggest club that you think could come in for him? Brentford seems a perfect fit to be honest and the pull of London might tempt him more than anything else

[BroadstairsR 2,168]

I might be being a bit naive here, but I am not 100% convinced that Josh would immediately jump at the first chance of Premier League football or the extra bucks involved. Not all footballers do, even these days. Also, I would pitch him slightly higher than Brentford, who are one of the PL clubs who will always be high amongst the very big list of clubs who will be relegation bound sooner rather than later, despite their money. West Ham, Brighton, or Newcastle might be better options in this respect. 

He is a family man now, settled and acclimatised at NCFC who nursed him through a serious injury and have as good facilities at Colney as most, including Brentford. He also seems to be an intelligent guy who could work out that another successful season as the big shot at Carrow Road could be a better option in the long run than being a bench sitter in West London in front of a17, 000 home crowd, especially if we could up his pay deal and promise him PL after that season, be it with us or otherwise. Emi did, after all, and we will never know the facts of that case (see highlighted, though.)

Toney remained at Brentford for those extra seasons too (see highlighted?) proved himself and now, despite controversy, seems destined towards a much bigger club.

I already know all the arguments refuting my stance, the money, the international recognition etc. so there is little need for repetition and as I said, this might be naivety, but is may be not beyond the realm of possibility

Now, Jonny Rowe might be a different matter altogether, a different character with different roots (Wembley) and probably different view upon things. 

Edited March 5 by BroadstairsR

[Worthy Nigelton 1,048]

1 hour ago, BroadstairsR said:

I might be being a bit naive here, but I am not 100% convinced that Josh would immediately jump at the first chance of Premier League football or the extra bucks involved. Not all footballers do, even these days. Also, I would pitch him slightly higher than Brentford, who are one of the PL clubs who will always be high amongst the very big list of clubs who will be relegation bound sooner rather than later, despite their money. West Ham, Brighton, or Newcastle might be better options in this respect. 

He is a family man now, settled and acclimatised at NCFC who nursed him through a serious injury and have as good facilities at Colney as most, including Brentford. He also seems to be an intelligent guy who could work out that another successful season as the big shot at Carrow Road could be a better option in the long run than being a bench sitter in West London in front of a17, 000 home crowd, especially if we could up his pay deal and promise him PL after that season, be it with us or otherwise. Emi did, after all, and we will never know the facts of that case (see highlighted, though.)

Toney remained at Brentford for those extra seasons too (see highlighted?) proved himself and now, despite controversy, seems destined towards a much bigger club.

I already know all the arguments refuting my stance, the money, the international recognition etc. so there is little need for repetition and as I said, this might be naivety, but is may be not beyond the realm of possibility

Now, Jonny Rowe might be a different matter altogether, a different character with different roots (Wembley) and probably different view upon things. 

He'll go if a PL team comes in. He has a family and it's a short career so he'd jump at the extra cash and you couldn't blame him. Brentford isn't a great move but there are worse PL teams he could join and every team bar about 7 or 8 could get relegated at any moment.

[Bigbrenn 59]

One of Sargent's new strengths to me is the ability to play well in a constantly changing team! Who knows who will be in midfield or beside home in attack. Injuries and 'Tombola Dave' have regularly seen a drumroll precede the release of the team sheet. Other teams will take note and realise in a more structured consistent playing style and team, Sargent will only get better. 

[Gordon Bennett 783]

33 minutes ago, Bigbrenn said:

One of Sargent's new strengths to me is the ability to play well in a constantly changing team! Who knows who will be in midfield or beside home in attack. Injuries and 'Tombola Dave' have regularly seen a drumroll precede the release of the team sheet. Other teams will take note and realise in a more structured consistent playing style and team, Sargent will only get better. 

Meanwhile in the real world he's managing tiredness, workload and tactics as well as listening to sport science when they say a player needs resting to prevent potential injuries.