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cambridgeshire canary

Tories take a 10 point lead

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Just now, TeemuVanBasten said:

The nation state

Very helpful.

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For many years the Tories were known as the party for law and order, and safe with the finances,  and I always thought the Labour party stood for fairness, and whilst I still feel that the overarching message from Labour is fairness, the Tories are morally bankrupt. The long list from Nevermind sums them up and it is well evidenced. I believe they are working to a plan, and sadly it seems to be working. I have friends who have voted Tory  all their lives, and I am shocked at how they try to defend the corruption and incompetence, especially when they say 'would it be any better under Labour' I just do not understand how people cannot see what is going on. 

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23 minutes ago, horsefly said:

What would you say the Tory party stands for? 

The only thing the Tories stand for is the National Anthem.

 

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3 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm not glib about the demise of the UK.

The sad irony is that you are more likely to be called "unpatriotic" by the very people cheering on this demise.

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Competent and strong opposition has always kept the worst excesses of the Tories at bay, what we see at the moment is the very worst of the Tory party (I don't want to call when real Conservatives because real Conservatives are not supposed to lash billions up the wall with nothing to show for it). Starmer has to start standing FOR something rather than abstaining from everything and trying to avoid nailing his colours to the mast. The Tories have made a mess of dozens of issues over the past 10 years and they keep getting away with it due to weak opposition.

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4 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Because people will want change eventually. Centrist policies are very little different from laissez faire.

And Brexit was a big concern at the last election. It blinded people to many of Labour's policies.

As I said, I might have to go green.

 

Change doesn't mean more left wing though.

Plenty of people wanted change and it drove them to UKIP, the Brexit party and voting to leave.

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Posted (edited)
18 hours ago, king canary said:

Potentially. My concern at this point is that the Tories culture war strategy, however cynical it may be, has a real chance of working, especially in what used to be Labour heartlands. The way party support is changing combined with the archaic FPTP system means a road map to a labour win looks smaller and smaller.

It's an exact replay of what has transpired in the US. You are just 2 - 3 years behind our experience, but we did eventually kick Trump out of office and now we are working on what remains of the GOP voter base - it's still a real fight between nationalism / racism / even fascism as expressed by the Republican Party and real American values as expressed in the Democratic Party. A huge part of the problem is because of right wing bias in large sections the media - the same problem as in the UK. 

Edited by Surfer
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On 06/04/2021 at 16:45, Jools said:

I do, two words -- First word begins with 'F' and the second word is 'All'... 😉

And yours is Fleece All?

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On 06/04/2021 at 21:10, king canary said:

Change doesn't mean more left wing though.

Plenty of people wanted change and it drove them to UKIP, the Brexit party and voting to leave.

Cameron drove them to UKIP.

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14 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Cameron drove them to UKIP.

My view is simply that we are in this mess now because Corbyn offered no sensible opposition to May and later Johnson and worse was complicit in Brexit.

It wasn't his 'left' policies in general (some where popular i.e. nationalization of rail) but his other worldly stuck in the 1970s anti- everything almost a professional demonstrator and especially his pacifist views on defence and nuclear weapons. It seemed he had to be dragged into belatedly criticizing Putin over Salisbury after he'd exhausted all his more preferred far flung conspiracy theories (false flag and so on). He couldn't say boo to a goose. Simply put he was an easy sitting target for mirth from ALL the media.

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Posted (edited)

I feel sorry for SKS, he might have the hardest job in UK politics right now. 

Intellectually he knows that the 'correct' approach always lies in between the extremes. Problem is that he is not sure that there are many voters there anymore.

Instead he is faced with choosing between two fratricidal elements, neither willing to make any concessions, each with an extremely loyal support base and both arguing from essentially emotional standpoints that are not so much resistent to rationalisation but rather outside of rational thought.

At some point though he will need to plant his flag and in doing do he will need to step on some articles of faith. Question is whose faith will he implicitly reject?

 

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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The fact we're forever talking about two monolithic parties shows how badly flawed our electoral model is.

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17 minutes ago, TheGunnShow said:

The fact we're forever talking about two monolithic parties shows how badly flawed our electoral model is.

I wouldnt describe the labour party (in the widest sense) as monolithic. Duolithic perhaps, but there is a huge chasm in the middle.

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Just now, Barbe bleu said:

I wouldnt describe the labour party (in the widest sense) as monolithic. Duolithic perhaps, but there is a huge chasm in the middle.

I was speaking more in voting terms. Two major parties with a chance of winning, and very little else. Not to mention the media pant-wetting when we had a hung election in 2010.

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1 minute ago, TheGunnShow said:

I was speaking more in voting terms. Two major parties with a chance of winning, and very little else. Not to mention the media pant-wetting when we had a hung election in 2010.

A few months ago I would have rolled my eyes at this and muttered 'let it go, for God's sake' to myself but my position has softened.

Israel has the ultimate PR system and its produced something like 6 general elections in 3 years (don't quote me on that) but the nation still functions and is still capable of an A1 vaccine  roll out.

The London assembly has a PR element and that seems to be uncontroversial.

Anything other than FPTP though would be disastrous for Labour right now though and the Conservatives are in power so don't bet on a change anytime soon!

 

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2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

A few months ago I would have rolled my eyes at this and muttered 'let it go, for God's sake' to myself but my position has softened.

Israel has the ultimate PR system and its produced something like 6 general elections in 3 years (don't quote me on that) but the nation still functions and is still capable of an A1 vaccine  roll out.

The London assembly has a PR element and that seems to be uncontroversial.

Anything other than FPTP though would be disastrous for Labour right now though and the Conservatives are in power so don't bet on a change anytime soon!

 

To be fair with Israel, there have also been problems with Netanyahu and his trials/tribulations too. I think that would be quite the complicating factor! Had a quick check, they've had four elections in two years - April 2019, September 2019, 2020, and 2021.

There won't be a chance of a change until a third party becomes kingmaker again.

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4 hours ago, TheGunnShow said:

To be fair with Israel, there have also been problems with Netanyahu and his trials/tribulations too. I think that would be quite the complicating factor! Had a quick check, they've had four elections in two years - April 2019, September 2019, 2020, and 2021.

There won't be a chance of a change until a third party becomes kingmaker again.

That to me is one of the main problems with PR, in that you often end up with the tail wagging the dog so to speak. It often ends up being which of the major parties can offer the most bribes to the smaller ones in order to form a government.

Case in point is in New Zealand where the two major parties (National/ACT & Labour/Greens) couldn’t form a government without the support of a minor party called NZ First, who polled around 6%. The whole election essentially rested on the whims of a singular politician who led the party, who had the power to derail the government whenever he didn’t get his own way.

Also as a percentage of MPs aren’t directly elected as in FPTP, the public has no way of getting rid of those they don’t like, especially if they are fairly senior members within the party. It’s not uncommon for an MP to lose their area seat but still be in parliament or even the cabinet because they’re high up on the parties list.

Im not saying that FPTP is any better or worse, to be honest I’m rather turn on the subject, but neither system is perfect

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2 minutes ago, Fen Canary said:

That to me is one of the main problems with PR, in that you often end up with the tail wagging the dog so to speak. It often ends up being which of the major parties can offer the most bribes to the smaller ones in order to form a government.

Case in point is in New Zealand where the two major parties (National/ACT & Labour/Greens) couldn’t form a government without the support of a minor party called NZ First, who polled around 6%. The whole election essentially rested on the whims of a singular politician who led the party, who had the power to derail the government whenever he didn’t get his own way.

Also as a percentage of MPs aren’t directly elected as in FPTP, the public has no way of getting rid of those they don’t like, especially if they are fairly senior members within the party. It’s not uncommon for an MP to lose their area seat but still be in parliament or even the cabinet because they’re high up on the parties list.

Im not saying that FPTP is any better or worse, to be honest I’m rather turn on the subject, but neither system is perfect

None of those weaknesses come close to the proportional problems we face with FPTP,  or indeed the notion of gerrymandering too as that is circumvented in any PR model - and horribly prevalent in FPTP. I would also say the fact that smaller parties can become kingmakers means that politicians then actually have to start doing their job, which is to best represent as much of the populace as they can, so this notion that it's a "bribe" is, IMO, a bit silly as really it is a compromise. You want their help to create a coalition - start courting them somewhat. Classic case from 1974 with the first UK hung election - the Liberals under Jeremy Clarke offered a coalition to Heath provided electoral reform was forthcoming. Heath said no, Labour got in, held another General Election not long afterwards, then got a majority. Other hung case, this time the Lib Dems got a referendum on it, but unfortunately only between FPTP and bloody AV.

Put it this way, only one other European country uses FPTP. That country is the democratic hotspot of Belarus. Most developed countries flew far past that antiquated model some time ago.

Furthermore, if you take that New Zealand case, Germany uses the same electoral model and it is not completely uncommon, especially at state level, to have what they call a "grand coalition", which is a coalition between the two major parties, so the notion that only the small one can be a kingmaker is not necessarily right either. If both larger parties are willing to make some compromises, then they can make one themselves.

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On 06/04/2021 at 15:15, TeemuVanBasten said:

i don' t suppose it has anything to do with Kier Starmer instructing his MPs to abstain on every important vote then? 

Why vote for a bunch of professional fence sitters. Nobody knows what Labour currently stand for. 

Could not agree more, politics is becoming pants, self serving careerists who are in it for self gratification and their cronies best interest. Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems (thanks for abstaining on Brex****) and the SNP Westminster stooges who have done nothing for Independence since they got elected. As for the bully boys from our unionist Irish contingents.... they soon will be faced with an all Ireland vote for unification, violence will get them nowhere 20 years of peace has changed peoples mind away from sectarian marches and bowler hats on walls.

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36 minutes ago, nevermind, neoliberalism has had it said:

Could not agree more, politics is becoming pants, self serving careerists who are in it for self gratification and their cronies best interest. Labour, Conservatives, Lib Dems (thanks for abstaining on Brex****) and the SNP Westminster stooges who have done nothing for Independence since they got elected. As for the bully boys from our unionist Irish contingents.... they soon will be faced with an all Ireland vote for unification, violence will get them nowhere 20 years of peace has changed peoples mind away from sectarian marches and bowler hats on walls.

The Tories have always been self serving but now Labour have obviously joined them as they never oppose anything.

But it seems the greater population want our politicians to all be cut from the same tree. And there lies the slippery slope to the end of democracy.

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31 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

The Tories have always been self serving but now Labour have obviously joined them as they never oppose anything.

But it seems the greater population want our politicians to all be cut from the same tree. And there lies the slippery slope to the end of democracy.

Thank God for the Lockdown else you would have jumped off Bedruthen Steps by now.😉

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Thank God for the Lockdown else you would have jumped off Bedruthen Steps by now.😉

I have North Cliffs, Cornwalls notorious suicide spot in view from my house.

Or I could throw SKS off them. 😁

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I think in SKS we have a Chris Hughton unfortunately. Safe, boring and risk free.

(Corbyn I'd suggest was a Roeder. A good appointment that quickly went bad then onto the stage where he was actually disliked.)

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Posted (edited)
6 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

The Tories have always been self serving but now Labour have obviously joined them as they never oppose anything.

But it seems the greater population want our politicians to all be cut from the same tree. And there lies the slippery slope to the end of democracy.

I'm not sure that they do KG, for my part and I suspect many others I yearn for the conviction politician of the past who has been carved not from the production line of political graduates but from those with experience of life. One of the biggest problems is that media and social media can destroy an individual based on one dodgy tweet or a poor decision way back in the past, we are all guilty of misdemeanour, we need to learn as a society that non of us is beyond reproach and accept that we have all made mistakes. The squeaky clean politician has probably never lived.

As a young man I was in awe of Michael Foot, he represented an area not far from where I was brought up, I may not now agree with all that he stood for but blimey could he inspire you when you heard him speak.

Edited by Van wink
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1 hour ago, Herman said:

I think in SKS we have a Chris Hughton unfortunately. Safe, boring and risk free.

(Corbyn I'd suggest was a Roeder. A good appointment that quickly went bad then onto the stage where he was actually disliked.)

Corbyn was an awful appointment in my eyes, far too much baggage from his past and pushed along by a deeply unpopular group amongst the wider public in Momentum. Their brand of shouty student activism mixed with liberal globalism, a concoction of Lennon and Lenin, was never going to garner support outside university cities.

Starmers problem is he still appears to be scared of that wing of his party, his decisions to kneel to BLM, and to apologise for his recent visit to a church group operating a food bank makes it appear he’s lead by Twitter, despite only around 20% of the country being on it, and an even smaller percentage being active. Those that complained about standing in front of a Union Jack aren’t going to win him elections.

If he’s serious about deposing the Tories, he needs to start talking to those that used to vote Labour without fail. Bread and butter issues such as housing, better wages and working conditions, better public services etc. Ignore any niche subjects in the culture wars (such as trans debates) and attack the Tories on the cronyism that is appearing under the government, and indeed seems to appear under most governments when they’re not faced with an opposition worthy of the name. 

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20 hours ago, Van wink said:

I'm not sure that they do KG, for my part and I suspect many others I yearn for the conviction politician of the past who has been carved not from the production line of political graduates but from those with experience of life.

 

Agree completely with that, although I would point out that the best example of conviction politicians in senior positions in the last few years must be Corbyn and McDonald, and I don't recall you being terribly keen on them 😀

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3 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Agree completely with that, although I would point out that the best example of conviction politicians in senior positions in the last few years must be Corbyn and McDonald, and I don't recall you being terribly keen on them 😀

I would have been 40 years ago, growing up is hard sometimes.

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On 13/04/2021 at 13:40, keelansgrandad said:

The Tories have always been self serving but now Labour have obviously joined them as they never oppose anything.

But it seems the greater population want our politicians to all be cut from the same tree. And there lies the slippery slope to the end of democracy.

As loud as a bunch of hungry goats, but they could not pull a wet kipper off a plate. Useless self serving and pandemically deadly in their lack of responses. they are GUILTY!

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