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National League null and void

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2 hours ago, Aggy said:

To be honest, I don’t really see the point of scrapping it yet. Got to be a case of wait and see where we are at the end of April, maybe even into the middle/end of May. 
 

Football is no different to everyone else in the country whose lives are effectively on hold until we have more news - we don’t know how things will go, just got to wait and see. 

Given that most agree that UK is around 2 weeks behind Italy virus wise...with Valiance today even saying the next 2 weeks here will worsen..and that even after 3 weeks of lockdown Italy shows no decrease...no stabilisation...only "very early" signs in just the increase slowing...dont need to be a rocket scientist to see that by mid May in the UK the virus situation here ..the numbers infected, dying etc...will be vastly bigger than now...and we will still be in the peak period of the virus....it will take months to decrease the  numbers to where the government start considering slowly easing restrictions. This is why i see the football authorities in mid May looking at how our nation is...and realise they have to wait months more in their futility...or open their eyes and accept the only decision  thats on the table.

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2 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Given that most agree that UK is around 2 weeks behind Italy virus wise...with Valiance today even saying the next 2 weeks here will worsen..and that even after 3 weeks of lockdown Italy shows no decrease...no stabilisation...only "very early" signs in just the increase slowing...dont need to be a rocket scientist to see that by mid May in the UK the virus situation here ..the numbers infected, dying etc...will be vastly bigger than now...and we will still be in the peak period of the virus....it will take months to decrease the  numbers to where the government start considering slowly easing restrictions. This is why i see the football authorities in mid May looking at how our nation is...and realise they have to wait months more in their futility...or open their eyes and accept the only decision  thats on the table.

Yep, think this about right. Plus didn't one of the scientists state that if the final death toll was sub 20000 then it would be a virus contained? Looking at the death rates at the present and in those albeit crude terms we may only be at the beginning. Italy's numbers are now increasing by about 5% daily whereas before they could be 15% plus. Again trying to read into those graphs you might expect a similar length of time (3 to 4 months) before numbers hold at peak and then tail off. If we are a month behind that trajectory you can see a 5 to 6 month period ahead. We will be very lucky to see football in September in my view. And if we do, it surely would have to be the start of a new season.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Given that most agree that UK is around 2 weeks behind Italy virus wise...with Valiance today even saying the next 2 weeks here will worsen..and that even after 3 weeks of lockdown Italy shows no decrease...no stabilisation...only "very early" signs in just the increase slowing...dont need to be a rocket scientist to see that by mid May in the UK the virus situation here ..the numbers infected, dying etc...will be vastly bigger than now...and we will still be in the peak period of the virus....it will take months to decrease the  numbers to where the government start considering slowly easing restrictions. This is why i see the football authorities in mid May looking at how our nation is...and realise they have to wait months more in their futility...or open their eyes and accept the only decision  thats on the table.

Doesn’t really explain why they should scrap it now though, rather than in another 5 weeks’ time. Surely you wait until it is impossible rather than doing it now and risk looking stupid later (however small the risk).

Edit: my point really is that I can’t see what you lose by waiting. It will take far more than five additional weeks to sort out legal issues and if you’re so sure it’s going to be even later than an August start for next season then frankly what’s the issue with waiting until mid-May to pull the plug officially on this one? 

Edited by Aggy

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From the BBC

There is a growing understanding among Scottish football clubs that finishing the season is becoming increasingly unlikely due to the spread of Covid-19.

Each SPFL side has at least eight games outstanding and the governing bodies are taking legal advice about the best way to conclude the current campaign.

The English Premier League is reportedly exploring a televised, behind-closed-doors event this summer.

However, that is considered fanciful by senior figures in Scotland.

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26 minutes ago, Making Plans said:

From the BBC

There is a growing understanding among Scottish football clubs that finishing the season is becoming increasingly unlikely due to the spread of Covid-19.

Each SPFL side has at least eight games outstanding and the governing bodies are taking legal advice about the best way to conclude the current campaign.

The English Premier League is reportedly exploring a televised, behind-closed-doors event this summer.

However, that is considered fanciful by senior figures in Scotland.

Fanciful is a well chosen word, farcical would be better.

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1 hour ago, Making Plans said:

From the BBC

There is a growing understanding among Scottish football clubs that finishing the season is becoming increasingly unlikely due to the spread of Covid-19.

Each SPFL side has at least eight games outstanding and the governing bodies are taking legal advice about the best way to conclude the current campaign.

The English Premier League is reportedly exploring a televised, behind-closed-doors event this summer.

However, that is considered fanciful by senior figures in Scotland.

So Neil Doncaster being sensible, as always.😎

The Mail has quite a detailed exclusive on this EPL plan, which makes clear there is only one factor driving it, and it is not getting Liverpool crowned as champions or ensuring promotion and relegation throughout the pyramid. Nothing to do with the integrity of the whole league structure. It is solely to try to avoid getting sued by the broadcasters for hundreds of millions of pounds for breach of contract.

To be fair, there may be an ulterior force-majeure legal motive, which is to be able to say that the PL would have finished the season, based on this plan, but was stopped by the government, undermining the broadcasters' case.

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Just now, Gordon Bennett said:

I’m not sure broadcasters would want to kick up too much fuss and risk being frozen out in the future anyway. 

Exactly my thoughts. Sky rely heavily on their football contract. With streaming services like amazon now coming on to the scene I wouldn’t imagine it would be a wise move from sky/bt to push it too far and there must be a more amicable agreement to be had given the circumstances 

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Broadcasters, as much as other industries must be down on income. Advertising seems to have dropped right off on SKY and half their adverts are their own. And advertisers will go where the audience is and not one broadcaster is immune from losing its rights.

A lengthy court case on this subject will do neither party any good with the public either.

And as has been said, people like Bezos will seize the opportunity.

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1 hour ago, JF said:

Exactly my thoughts. Sky rely heavily on their football contract. With streaming services like amazon now coming on to the scene I wouldn’t imagine it would be a wise move from sky/bt to push it too far and there must be a more amicable agreement to be had given the circumstances 

Sky isn't a charity, and football finance isn't based on sentiment. The Prem will have failed to fulfill a contract and will need to compensate Sky (and probably Sky so their consumers). Any future contracts will go to the highest bidder and Sky knows that football won't cut them any slack for a favour now.

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34 minutes ago, BigFish said:

The Prem will have failed to fulfill a contract and will need to compensate Sky

Not if the Government prevents football from restarting before it's too late.

If that happens then it's entirely out of the EPL's control and they won't have to pay anyone a penny

 

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48 minutes ago, BigFish said:

Sky isn't a charity, and football finance isn't based on sentiment. The Prem will have failed to fulfill a contract and will need to compensate Sky (and probably Sky so their consumers). Any future contracts will go to the highest bidder and Sky knows that football won't cut them any slack for a favour now.

Can't  see where its any great problem. Sky will pay the PL pro rata on the amount of games played. The teams are worried about having the money to fulfil players contracts so there needs to be give and take here. Any players refusing to take the hit will stand out like sore thumbs. We have already seen players in Spain and Italy making the sacrifice.

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Can't  see where its any great problem. Sky will pay the PL pro rata on the amount of games played. The teams are worried about having the money to fulfil players contracts so there needs to be give and take here. Any players refusing to take the hit will stand out like sore thumbs. We have already seen players in Spain and Italy making the sacrifice.

Seems like its the non playing staff who are taking the hit in this country. Which means they are on a higher wage than £3k a month as some are taking 50% cuts etc.

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3 hours ago, PurpleCanary said:

So Neil Doncaster being sensible, as always.😎

The Mail has quite a detailed exclusive on this EPL plan, which makes clear there is only one factor driving it, and it is not getting Liverpool crowned as champions or ensuring promotion and relegation throughout the pyramid. Nothing to do with the integrity of the whole league structure. It is solely to try to avoid getting sued by the broadcasters for hundreds of millions of pounds for breach of contract.

To be fair, there may be an ulterior force-majeure legal motive, which is to be able to say that the PL would have finished the season, based on this plan, but was stopped by the government, undermining the broadcasters' case.

I think there may be some merit in the force majeure argument - but all that does is enable a contract cancellation; it doesn't change what might happen when the contract is cancelled, so the EPL may still owe their £750m. The new TV contract begins on 1st July and it shouldn't be beyond their capabilities to renegotiate that once there is more clarity on things in mid-May. Maybe the £750m can be "lost" by extending the deal for an extra year or so.

So, I also don't see what the hurry is to make a decision. There is a cashflow issue for some (hopefully not us, as gate and commercial receipts are a relatively small part of our income) and FFP complicates things a little, but there is nothing which cannot be challenged and, if necessary, amended.

Player contracts are an interesting issue - the power rests with the player mostly, and if they choose not to extend they can't be forced to, so some squads may change, and yes that may open the door for legal challenges. Again, probably wouldn't affect us as we don't have anyone with any value due for expiry this year.

But I think many people are missing that the guide for what the EPL do will come from what UEFA do and how the other European leagues and competitions decide to complete, and even what other sports do - because of the possibility that they may create the legal precedent. It is difficult to argue that football is a special case if golf, tennis, cricket are all cancelled.

Wimbledon may be the clincher - due to take place in late June/early July and only for two weeks. If they feel they have no choice but to cancel, how can football think differently? That precedent may be the contractual exit the EPL need and the defence against claims.

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Posted (edited)

I can't believe this nonsense is still going on.

Obviously the season as we get into April is going to be cancelled (curtailed if you like) but nobody is to blame yet both sides will have a duty to mitigate their losses. That means drawing a swift line under this season so we can all get a clean start hopefully this autumn on a new season and yes NCFC will still be in the EPL not 'relegated or demoted' on an incomplete season' (else an injunction will follow to fully stop the EPL restarting  until such times as we are reinstated - that's hard ball).

The only problem occurs if the EPL thinks it can in some manner short change the broadcasters by keeping all the money and not  play the game in full.

Since the games can't and won't be played both sides must negotiate an equitable settlement.

If they can't then a court will arbitrate - but won't look kindly on cloud cuckoo wish lists or head in the sands obstinacy - and the running up of needless costs. I very much hope and expect much shrewder business heads than the current football proletariat are already in discussion.

Edited by Yellow Fever
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26 minutes ago, sgncfc said:

I think there may be some merit in the force majeure argument - but all that does is enable a contract cancellation; it doesn't change what might happen when the contract is cancelled, so the EPL may still owe their £750m. The new TV contract begins on 1st July and it shouldn't be beyond their capabilities to renegotiate that once there is more clarity on things in mid-May. Maybe the £750m can be "lost" by extending the deal for an extra year or so.

So, I also don't see what the hurry is to make a decision. There is a cashflow issue for some (hopefully not us, as gate and commercial receipts are a relatively small part of our income) and FFP complicates things a little, but there is nothing which cannot be challenged and, if necessary, amended.

Player contracts are an interesting issue - the power rests with the player mostly, and if they choose not to extend they can't be forced to, so some squads may change, and yes that may open the door for legal challenges. Again, probably wouldn't affect us as we don't have anyone with any value due for expiry this year.

But I think many people are missing that the guide for what the EPL do will come from what UEFA do and how the other European leagues and competitions decide to complete, and even what other sports do - because of the possibility that they may create the legal precedent. It is difficult to argue that football is a special case if golf, tennis, cricket are all cancelled.

Wimbledon may be the clincher - due to take place in late June/early July and only for two weeks. If they feel they have no choice but to cancel, how can football think differently? That precedent may be the contractual exit the EPL need and the defence against claims.

I agree with much of that, but the longer the delay the more likely it is cashflow problems will mean clubs below the EPL will go to the wall, putting promotion and relegation through the pyramid in doubt. Supposedly this latest plan acknowledges that even if the EPL can be completed the Championship might not be, so there would be no relegation.

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56 minutes ago, sgncfc said:

 

Player contracts are an interesting issue - the power rests with the player mostly, and if they choose not to extend they can't be forced to, so some squads may change, and yes that may open the door for legal challenges. Again, probably wouldn't affect us as we don't have anyone with any value due for expiry this year.

Wimbledon may be the clincher - due to take place in late June/early July and only for two weeks. If they feel they have no choice but to cancel, how can football think differently? That precedent may be the contractual exit the EPL need and the defence against claims.

I think the players' contracts is going to be the easiest thing. Walking out on a club at this point would leave a player ostracised for the rest of his career. Or am I being naive? 

The Wimbledon point is interesting. If they cancel football will look bad but I wonder if there's so much money at stake that they won't actually care. They may think any criticism would eventually blow over. 

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If the football authorities are waiting weeks more...then i ask the people who are running these authorities...as individual  human beings, do you actually see whats happening  in Europe as regards the virus?...dont you see that its absolute certainty that there are months ahead where football cannot be staged?..and if you do see these things...then....

surely, even if you wait weeks more to "see how the situation stands"...as persons  in control of running football, you should at the very least be in preliminary talks with broadcasters, agents, football clubs...in essence in all areas of football...to get a plan of action in place as regards player contracts, TV rights, everything...right now...rather than  just wait  for another month...2 months...then null and void  all seasons  with no plan of action.  I really do hope  thats happening now...for their sakes and for the fans.

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It is arguable that the PL breached its contracts as it unilaterally brought the season to a halt when it did without any UK governmental or UEFA/FIFA deliberation or consultation with the likes of Sky/BT or its international broadcasters.  Although it was the obvious decision to suspend the season to cancel it was seemingly taken by the PL prematurely.

Unless PL had contacted Sky etc. If so apparently not a leg to stand on in respect of these contracts.  PL would argue inevitability that the season would be suspended not sure if this will fly. 

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1 hour ago, PurpleCanary said:

I agree with much of that, but the longer the delay the more likely it is cashflow problems will mean clubs below the EPL will go to the wall, putting promotion and relegation through the pyramid in doubt. Supposedly this latest plan acknowledges that even if the EPL can be completed the Championship might not be, so there would be no relegation.

I think your point about the length of likely delay because of the ongoing onset of this pandemic and clubs becoming increasingly under financial pressure is the nub of this,  even if from a purely practical point of view. We are being told (actually today, right now) that we are at the beginning of the escalation period. You can easily predict or forecast an overlap in timeframe with players' contracts. Decisions need to be made in good time so that clubs are not held out to dry, so at the very least, they can plan their finances. A few clubs are either having to do this  now or they seem to be grasping the reality. Just hanging about and hoping for things to resolve or improve with an outside chance of games being played feels like poor management and judgement.

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1 hour ago, dylanisabaddog said:

I think the players' contracts is going to be the easiest thing. Walking out on a club at this point would leave a player ostracised for the rest of his career. Or am I being naive? 

The Wimbledon point is interesting. If they cancel football will look bad but I wonder if there's so much money at stake that they won't actually care. They may think any criticism would eventually blow over. 

I would guess it would depend on what contracts have already been signed. If players contracts were expiring, and they have signed pre contract agreements with other clubs, it’s highly unlikely that a players contract will expire and they have nothing else lined up. Or if any transfer deals are in place to be completed on a certain date when the window opens ect 

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Posted (edited)
25 minutes ago, JF said:

I would guess it would depend on what contracts have already been signed. If players contracts were expiring, and they have signed pre contract agreements with other clubs, it’s highly unlikely that a players contract will expire and they have nothing else lined up. Or if any transfer deals are in place to be completed on a certain date when the window opens ect 

Indeed, not only are some contracts finishing, but others are starting. That's what will complicate things further. Also, some clubs in the Football League may not have the available funds to extend a loan or a contract, and who will pay the players who have agreed to a move from July 1 if the new wage is higher?

If there are enough players/clubs who put their feet down and don't agree to a near-impossible unilateral agreement, then the season cannot and will not go beyond June 30.

Edited by Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man
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On 30/03/2020 at 20:45, sonyc said:

Yep, think this about right. Plus didn't one of the scientists state that if the final death toll was sub 20000 then it would be a virus contained? Looking at the death rates at the present and in those albeit crude terms we may only be at the beginning. Italy's numbers are now increasing by about 5% daily whereas before they could be 15% plus. Again trying to read into those graphs you might expect a similar length of time (3 to 4 months) before numbers hold at peak and then tail off. If we are a month behind that trajectory you can see a 5 to 6 month period ahead. We will be very lucky to see football in September in my view. And if we do, it surely would have to be the start of a new season.

I think that looking at the daily "New Cases" is a better indication of the timeline for all this.

China went from around 100 new cases a day to below 100 in around 2 months.

Italy passed the 100 new cases a day around Feb 25th so maybe around the end of April they will be in much better shape. Their last 2 days figures for new cases have been just over 4000 which is 2500 below their peak day. China went from 5000 new cases per day to below 100 new cases per day in about 3 weeks, which also supports the 2 month timeline.

We passed 100 new cases around March 12th so maybe by around May 12th we will have it pretty much under control.

That ties in with the popular "we are 2 weeks behind Italy" too.

Of course, there may be differences between the variables of how many and who are being tested, how people have stuck to the social distancing rules etc etc, but there does seem something of a pattern there.

The deaths of course lag the new cases trends as you would expect.

I've taken all the figures from the worldometers site so they should be pretty consistent.

Clearly, releasing the restrictions bit by bit will take time and I simply can't imagine any football being played for a long time.

 

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14 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

I think that looking at the daily "New Cases" is a better indication of the timeline for all this.

China went from around 100 new cases a day to below 100 in around 2 months.

Italy passed the 100 new cases a day around Feb 25th so maybe around the end of April they will be in much better shape. Their last 2 days figures for new cases have been just over 4000 which is 2500 below their peak day. China went from 5000 new cases per day to below 100 new cases per day in about 3 weeks, which also supports the 2 month timeline.

We passed 100 new cases around March 12th so maybe by around May 12th we will have it pretty much under control.

That ties in with the popular "we are 2 weeks behind Italy" too.

Of course, there may be differences between the variables of how many and who are being tested, how people have stuck to the social distancing rules etc etc, but there does seem something of a pattern there.

The deaths of course lag the new cases trends as you would expect.

I've taken all the figures from the worldometers site so they should be pretty consistent.

Clearly, releasing the restrictions bit by bit will take time and I simply can't imagine any football being played for a long time.

 

Quite a fair (and hopefully not too an optimistic) analysis.

As you note even if we have it 'under control ' by mid-May we will still be be many many months from easing the social distancing restrictions - and certainly not for teams or 'contact' games!

The EPL need to wake up and smell the coffee. Accept the inevitable and start addressing the financial problems for all clubs large and small. Act like professionals not overpaid amateurs .

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55 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

I think that looking at the daily "New Cases" is a better indication of the timeline for all this.

China went from around 100 new cases a day to below 100 in around 2 months.

Italy passed the 100 new cases a day around Feb 25th so maybe around the end of April they will be in much better shape. Their last 2 days figures for new cases have been just over 4000 which is 2500 below their peak day. China went from 5000 new cases per day to below 100 new cases per day in about 3 weeks, which also supports the 2 month timeline.

We passed 100 new cases around March 12th so maybe by around May 12th we will have it pretty much under control.

That ties in with the popular "we are 2 weeks behind Italy" too.

Of course, there may be differences between the variables of how many and who are being tested, how people have stuck to the social distancing rules etc etc, but there does seem something of a pattern there.

The deaths of course lag the new cases trends as you would expect.

I've taken all the figures from the worldometers site so they should be pretty consistent.

Clearly, releasing the restrictions bit by bit will take time and I simply can't imagine any football being played for a long time.

 

On TV this morning that its thought the cases reported in China have been lowered by a factor of x40...in anycase i dont put any store into the China numbers...another factor is that China  is still in lockdown..there was a  hopeful planned partial lifting of lockdown by April 12th...but now China is increasing certain measures after a warning of a second wave of cases. Italy?...i look at the death rate...its still up in the 700 or 800 a day rate...and it seems the virus is spreading south there. I can tell you right now..by May 12th..in 6 weeks...we will be a long way away from having it under control.

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28 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

On TV this morning that its thought the cases reported in China have been lowered by a factor of x40...in anycase i dont put any store into the China numbers...another factor is that China  is still in lockdown..there was a  hopeful planned partial lifting of lockdown by April 12th...but now China is increasing certain measures after a warning of a second wave of cases. Italy?...i look at the death rate...its still up in the 700 or 800 a day rate...and it seems the virus is spreading south there. I can tell you right now..by May 12th..in 6 weeks...we will be a long way away from having it under control.

Well, I can only go off the figures we have for China. As mentioned, the death rate lags the new cases and will obviously continue to.

I thought the virus was already in the South, I seem to remember that the very steep rise in new cases in Italy was partly put down to thousands of Italians who worked in the industrial North, getting back to their homes in the South before the full lockdown took place. May not be entirely accurate though.

I remain encouraged by the drop in new cases in Italy, I guess the next few days will show - if they continue to drop, great news. If they go back up again, not so good  😞

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46 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

On TV this morning that its thought the cases reported in China have been lowered by a factor of x40...in anycase i dont put any store into the China numbers...another factor is that China  is still in lockdown..there was a  hopeful planned partial lifting of lockdown by April 12th...but now China is increasing certain measures after a warning of a second wave of cases. Italy?...i look at the death rate...its still up in the 700 or 800 a day rate...and it seems the virus is spreading south there. I can tell you right now..by May 12th..in 6 weeks...we will be a long way away from having it under control.

We cannot trust China's figures so extrapolating anything from them may not be a sound idea.

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3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

We cannot trust China's figures so extrapolating anything from them may not be a sound idea.

Fortune cookies are more credible.....

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