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5 hours ago, ricardo said:

Waiting to be swept along by events is rarely a good policy.

UK numbers up by 208 today. Biggest daily rise

Until tomorrow.

Not a big number when you consider the population of the the UK is about 55m !!

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23 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 

But I assume we are still some way off that at the moment. But if any of the predictions around the progress of the virus are correct then the current early April date for restarting games looks totally unfeasible and then it starts to look very difficult to see how the season could be completed.

We are only some way off because nobody wants to accept the reality of the situation. The powers that be say we are 4 weeks behind Italy so look at their numbers now and ask yourself if we would be restartig football at that stage. A couple of weeks of players isolating won't cut it because some will be down with it while others have yet to catch it. We have a rolling wave where the virus is in control not the government, not the EFL, not the Premier League.

Its done for this year and I expect the football authorities will realise that voiding is the only sensible option.

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3 minutes ago, Harry53 said:

Not a big number when you consider the population of the the UK is about 55m !!

You do understand that the numbers of people that actually have the virus in the u.k right now is many more times the official number? Yesterday we were told that there was up to 10,000 in the U.K and that’s going up significantly by the day

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4 minutes ago, Harry53 said:

Not a big number when you consider the population of the the UK is about 55m !!

Care to guess what the figure will be on April 3rd?

Doubling every 3.5 days

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4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

We are only some way off because nobody wants to accept the reality of the situation. The powers that be say we are 4 weeks behind Italy so look at their numbers now and ask yourself if we would be restartig football at that stage. A couple of weeks of players isolating won't cut it because some will be down with it while others have yet to catch it. We have a rolling wave where the virus is in control not the government, not the EFL, not the Premier League.

Its done for this year and I expect the football authorities will realise that voiding is the only sensible option.

Think that's a very fair summary.

The TV contracts are definitely a complicating factor but I suspect that in the end we have a government so desparate to avoid unpopularity that they will shell out to both the TV companies and the lower league clubs to ease their pain and avoid fingers being at the government for messing it all up in the first place.

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22 minutes ago, vos said:

If the matches cannot be completed by the end of May I think the only answer is to declare the season null and void. Otherwise there will be debates, arguments and legal threats which will never be resolved prior to next season. You could possibly argue that if a side is mathematically already promoted/relegated then that could stand but as no side is in that position that cannot apply. We are in the Premiership next season !!!!!!

I would say there is zero chance of the season being completed by the end of May. According to the Mail the FA has already told the PL the season cannot be completed, although it is not clear whether the FA means on time or not even with some long delay.

For what it is worth it seems to me the only way to complete this English season would be if it was done in September/October/November, with the next season starting in the New Year. But that would really have to take place in conjunction with all the other major European leagues doing the same, and there would still be the problem of  eventually getting the calendar back so those leagues started in August.

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Can’t see how the season can run into the summer when many players contracts will be up. Any extension will require every club in every league having the same playing squad 

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Have I got it right that a decision of this magnitude would require all 20 members of the Premier League to vote for it? I believe they needed a unanimous vote today in order to call off the fixtures? 
 

If so the bottom three would hardly vote to leave the table as it is and accept relegation. 

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Posted (edited)

Unfortunately I think declaring the season null and void is something they’ll avoid with every ounce of their being . Unless they do it in tandem with sponsors and other European Leagues , governments and UEFA .The precedents of calling it off are immense . What’s bad enough next time ?  The Euros I believe will be cancelled so they’ll try to use the summer behind closed doors or anything they can . This is a long haul . 

For what it’s worth , ultimately I think the situation will overwhelm them . 
And then , we’re probably staying up . Although after things have run their course it won’t seem anything much to celebrate at all .

Edited by Pockthorpe

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9 minutes ago, Hairy Canary said:

Have I got it right that a decision of this magnitude would require all 20 members of the Premier League to vote for it? I believe they needed a unanimous vote today in order to call off the fixtures? 
 

If so the bottom three would hardly vote to leave the table as it is and accept relegation. 

Don't know but clearly today's decision was the Premier League acting on their own voilition, and actually in contravention of the advice from government.

However in 2-3 weeks time it is quite possible that the government will have grown a pair and taken the decision away from them. Either way it looks as though the season is over, can't see any of the work arounds being floated to complete the season are actually coming to pass.

This season has been an absolute disaster from the start, firstly with VAR and now with the virus. A lot of people seem to think that September is a realistic target to aim for restarting sport, so surely writing off this season and having a proper season next time makes much more sense than significantly disrupting next season as well trying to finish off the fag end of this one.

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2 minutes ago, Pockthorpe said:

Unfortunately I think declaring the season null and void is something they’ll avoid with every ounce of their being . Unless they do it in tandem with other European Leagues , governments and UEFA .The precedents of calling it off are immense . What’s bad enough next time ?  The Euros I believe will be cancelled so they’ll try to use the summer behind closed doors or anything they can . This is a long haul . 

For what it’s worth , ultimately I think the situation will overwhelm them . 
And then , we’re probably staying up . Although after things have run their course it won’t seem anything much to celebrate at all .

What happens with players contracts that will be expiring at what should have been the end of this season though? Some players will have signed pre contracts for other clubs as well. The only way the season gets finished is if the playing squads in every league are the same 

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3 minutes ago, JF said:

What happens with players contracts that will be expiring at what should have been the end of this season though? Some players will have signed pre contracts for other clubs as well. The only way the season gets finished is if the playing squads in every league are the same 

They’re good points JF . Basically , I have no f****** idea ! And I guess there’ll be lots of other points like this to sort out . These are uncharted waters aren’t they ?

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1 minute ago, Pockthorpe said:

They’re good points JF . Basically , I have no f****** idea ! And I guess there’ll be lots of other points like this to sort out . These are uncharted waters aren’t they ?

It’s absolutely impossible to sort out fairly. Whatever outcome  of the many that have been put forwards has negative repercussions for someone. Null and Void looks the only likely outcome but that will open up a **** storm as well

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13 minutes ago, JF said:

What happens with players contracts that will be expiring at what should have been the end of this season though? Some players will have signed pre contracts for other clubs as well. The only way the season gets finished is if the playing squads in every league are the same 

And that is another reason why they have little choice but to void.

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Declare null & void. Promote Leeds and West Brom and have 5 teams relegated next season, no? Surely it's the fairest way?

Carry it on down the lower leagues to make the numbers for each league.

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2 minutes ago, Darth Vadis said:

Declare null & void. Promote Leeds and West Brom and have 5 teams relegated next season, no? Surely it's the fairest way?

Carry it on down the lower leagues to make the numbers for each league.

Neither are mathematically promoted and Fulham would argue that they are still right in the mix with West Brom still to play and 6 points behind 

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53 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Care to guess what the figure will be on April 3rd?

Doubling every 3.5 days

I've been doing my own models on this since the 29/2 (23 cases then). I 'predicted' 750 for today, between 5800 and 6000 by 20/3 (next Friday) and 50,000 by 28/3. I felt it would pass 100,000 by 31/3. If we don't have drastic measures then modelled ahead I could see in excess of 1 million by the start of the second week of April. By this stage I would imagine all posters will know of someone, perhaps many, affected.

This is NOT alarmist, just a modelling of the current rate of increase over a number of days.

One can hope though that as people start to do their own social distancing, self-isolating and taking great precautions, then the rate will begin to slow down. This is the one hope I have.

The trajectory is scary and I'm sure the numbers reported now are nowhere near the true figure (as Witty alluded to). But apart from our actions being something to hold onto , I want to offer another positive...Let's hope the death rate is very low (& ergo hospital requirement) and not like Italy. This will help.

In the meantime Ricardo, let's pray everyone in this community stays well and maybe as you say, events will start to overtake government thinking (nudge theory, herd immunity or whatever) and new strategies might also be sought.

Football is our big loss on this forum (so much a big part of our lives) but let's hope we can soon start to enjoy it again. An April resumption is ridiculous. Yet, bigger issues will be on the nation's mind by then.

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2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I've been doing my own models on this since the 29/2 (23 cases then). I 'predicted' 750 for today, between 5800 and 6000 by 20/3 (next Friday) and 50,000 by 28/3. I felt it would pass 100,000 by 31/3. If we don't have drastic measures then modelled ahead I could see in excess of 1 million by the start of the second week of April. By this stage I would imagine all posters will know of someone, perhaps many, affected.

This is NOT alarmist, just a modelling of the current rate of increase over a number of days.

One can hope though that as people start to do their own social distancing, self-isolating and taking great precautions, then the rate will begin to slow down. This is the one hope I have.

The trajectory is scary and I'm sure the numbers reported now are nowhere near the true figure (as Witty alluded to). But apart from our actions being something to hold onto , I want to offer another positive...Let's hope the death rate is very low (& ergo hospital requirement) and not like Italy. This will help.

In the meantime Ricardo, let's pray everyone in this community stays well and maybe as you say, events will start to overtake government thinking (nudge theory, herd immunity or whatever) and new strategies might also be sought.

Football is our big loss on this forum (so much a big part of our lives) but let's hope we can soon start to enjoy it again. An April resumption is ridiculous. Yet, bigger issues will be on the nation's mind by then.

You only have to look at worldometers.info to see you are near enough spot on with those projections. Some very good graphs on there.

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10 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I've been doing my own models on this since the 29/2 (23 cases then). I 'predicted' 750 for today, between 5800 and 6000 by 20/3 (next Friday) and 50,000 by 28/3. I felt it would pass 100,000 by 31/3. If we don't have drastic measures then modelled ahead I could see in excess of 1 million by the start of the second week of April. By this stage I would imagine all posters will know of someone, perhaps many, affected.

 

You and Ricardo working out likely 'scores'

a sort of ghouls panel

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3 minutes ago, Bill said:

You and Ricardo working out likely 'scores'

a sort of ghouls panel

I wish it was how many points we could accrue in our next 9 games instead (which of course I  have already done..... but now that's obsolete!)

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18 minutes ago, Bill said:

You and Ricardo working out likely 'scores'

a sort of ghouls panel

The graphs tell the unfolding story unfortunately. Each daily increase about 130 percent higher than the previous day. Not difficult to see how quickly we get into scary territory.

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Much more important than any discussion of football is the Cricket season is due to start in a few weeks. Cancel that for the whole Summer and there will be riots. Same as if you cancelled baseball in the US. 

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The Telegraph are reporting (just now) that the Govt will ban 'mass gatherings' next week - partly because the EPL/EFL have acted - and Wimbledon, Glastonbury, Royal Ascot, the Grand National and the Boat Race could all be cancelled.

This ban will be backed by emergency legislation that will enable compensation being paid to affected organisations.

 

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The best equation would be for as many people as possible to catch the virus with as few serious cases or deaths as possible. 

If a large proportion of the population build up antibodies through contraction and recovery this becomes an asset, especially amongst the working population. 

It is the sick, frail and elderly who need managed contact but many of them won't help themselves. 

Personally, I'm trying to get on with things but with consideration. It's self-management. If I were to contract then recover then provided I didn't spread it that would be a good outcome for me. 

It's all a risk but so is riding my bike or driving my car with so many idiots without a moment to live on the road. 

Easter will be interesting. I'm in favour of schools remaining open so young people, who exhibit milder symptoms but could be more potent spreaders, might be the catalyst for a boom in cases then. 

As for this season, it is over, I'm sure we can 'self-isolate' enough volunteers from the staff to see to that! 

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13 minutes ago, wooster said:

The Telegraph are reporting (just now) that the Govt will ban 'mass gatherings' next week - partly because the EPL/EFL have acted - and Wimbledon, Glastonbury, Royal Ascot, the Grand National and the Boat Race could all be cancelled.

This ban will be backed by emergency legislation that will enable compensation being paid to affected organisations.

 

The Government don't have any money of their own. Why should the tax payer bail out Glastonbury? 

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Good point - I was thinking more of the affected parties in football that make cancelling this season more palatable and thus preserving our Premier League status.

In truth, the lost profits from these other activities, if they are banned, will not amount to much given the anticipated level of Govt spending over the next year or so.  Think they'll be in the millions rather than billions.

 

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10 hours ago, Van wink said:

Season will be cancelled, hard to see any alternative

I am prepared to bet quite a lot of money that it's not. UEFA will cancel the Euro's and allow domestic leagues to finish in June/July. Start next season a couple of weeks late and cancel the winter break. Might have to play two games a week but it gets it done.

No relegation reprieve for us unless we earn it - and rightly so.

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2 hours ago, ricardo said:

You only have to look at worldometers.info to see you are near enough spot on with those projections. Some very good graphs on there.

Except that the testing has effectively stopped now for anyone not in a hospital, so we will never be told the true numbers or even know if we've had it unless the symptoms are serious enough to be hospitalised - which to date has only been for about 14% of people confirmed as positive. This should avoid the kind of panic we have seen in Italy.

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1 hour ago, Surfer said:

Much more important than any discussion of football is the Cricket season is due to start in a few weeks. Cancel that for the whole Summer and there will be riots. Same as if you cancelled baseball in the US. 

I mean this politely, but the average cricket fan to me has never seemed the “rioting” type.

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