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Worldometer saying deaths at 619, down from 708 yesterday. think it was 684 the day before.

 

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Actually he escaped in a submarine to Argentina with Blondi and Mrs H.ūüėČ

Must be true, I saw it on a Youtube videoūüėĀ

There's has honestly been a whole documentary series about this on a normally reputable TV channel. I only watched one as I would have annoyed the neighbours with my swearing.

 

Just checked and there's three bloody series.ūüė•

Edited by Herman

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32 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

Worldometer saying deaths at 619, down from 708 yesterday. think it was 684 the day before.

 

Yup, its swings and roundabouts ron. The new cases today has leaped  upwards a lot though ,going thru 5,000 in a day for 1st time..at 5,903. This is partly due i guess to the continued increase in testings, which are now around 11 or 12k a day. Now to, each Tuesday, ONS will give out a weekly death count for those who died outside hospital with Coronavirus or Covid 19 mentioned on  the death certificate. Whether these deaths will be added to the PHE hospital death total i dont know.

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The death figures are not fully representative as they Show  the deaths reported in a day not the actual deaths which take time to come through. Cases are also not comparable because NHS staff starting to be tested. So you really can’t take anything from daily trends due to issues with data and natural fluctuations. You need to look at longer trends on a comparable basis. 

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22 minutes ago, Herman said:

There's has honestly been a whole documentary series about this on a normally reputable TV channel. I only watched one as I would have annoyed the neighbours with my swearing.

 

Just checked and there's three bloody series.ūüė•

Must be true then Herman.

Do you think he's still there?ūüė¨

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8 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Must be true then Herman.

Do you think he's still there?ūüė¨

He's in a hell where the supermarkets only sell meat products.

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2 hours ago, A Load of Squit said:

https://www.itv.com/news/2020-04-05/coronavirus-premier-league-football-donate-wages-hospices-matt-hancock-daniel-hewitt/

“The hospices of this country have traditionally been largely funded by charity and charity shops. Those shops have had to close so I'm putting more money - taxpayer's money - into hospices to support them but why don't our footballers club together and support our hospices and support the national effort that we're all in?

‚ÄúI think that is the sort of thing that would go down really well and help bring the country together.‚ÄĚ

They're not working at the moment so these footballers should be using thier spare time making masks, finding a vaccine, transporting PPE around the country and finding a cure for cancer.

Some of them have children, why aren't they cleaning chimneys?

 

Quite - even in a cabinet stuffed full of total dunces Matt Hancock still manages to shine through for utter stupidity and a complete failure to grasp what is actually going on, especially in his own area of responsibility.

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Posted (edited)
5 hours ago, ron obvious said:

This gives some idea of the difficulties of trying to determine the right course of action:

https://unherd.com/2020/04/how-likely-are-you-to-die-of-coronavirus/

 

Well this is interesting. I have, during my (one a day) dog walks tried to work out the likely percentages of dying from CV too. All quite back of a fag packet stuff (but an eminently harmless thing to consider in isolation).

I'm aware via feedback from friends that at their workforce some 25% of employees are off with symptoms. And these percentages are remarkably the same from a few sources whether very large businesses or smaller. I hear stories on radio too that a quarter of the workforce is off.

Anyway, sonyc did some maths. 25% of around 30m working population means 7.5m have probably been affected. This could even be a low estimate because the 25% figure has been mentioned over at least a fortnight. Yet, just assuming a cautious figure anyway, with the current 5000 reported deaths the likelihood statistically of anyone dying equates to 0.067% (ignoring any factors like age or existing health of course, and merely taking the crude average).

All very rough I realise. Yet, just reflecting on the fact that some 1.9million have contacted NHS 111 and stating they have had CV symptoms and my very crude 7.5m 'theory' (which actually could very well be 3 times that amount ....as the author of this article states, the virus was very probably circulating a long time before cases started to emerge, likewise Iceland's experience and that little town of Vo in northern Italy) seems to give weight to the herd immunity argument. In my view, mind. That is further strengthened by those comparative graphs (35%, 22%,13.5% and latterly 8%) Ricardo posted. It appears that there are fairly predictable evolutions of this virus (possibly influenced to a greater or lesser extent by protective policies instigated by countries). So, it appears peak HAS been reached in Italy. Once we have tested in the community (getting representative examples even) then we will have very useful data.

It gives me some hope in all of this. Thanks for the article as it's helped me in my own inarticulate, semi-rambling & number crunching thoughts.

 

Edited by sonyc

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29 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Well this is interesting. I have, during my (one a day) dog walks tried to work out the likely percentages of dying from CV too. All quite back of a fag packet stuff (but an eminently harmless thing to consider in isolation).

I'm aware via feedback from friends that at their workforce some 25% of employees are off with symptoms. And these percentages are remarkably the same from a few sources whether very large businesses or smaller. I hear stories on radio too that a quarter of the workforce is off.

Anyway, sonyc did some maths. 25% of around 30m working population means 7.5m have probably been affected. This could even be a low estimate because the 25% figure has been mentioned over at least a fortnight. Yet, just assuming a cautious figure anyway, with the current 5000 reported deaths the likelihood statistically of anyone dying equates to 0.067% (ignoring any factors like age or existing health of course, and merely taking the crude average).

All very rough I realise. Yet, just reflecting on the fact that some 1.9million have contacted NHS 111 and stating they have had CV symptoms and my very crude 7.5m 'theory' (which actually could very well be 3 times that amount ....as the author of this article states, the virus was very probably circulating a long time before cases started to emerge, likewise Iceland's experience and that little town of Vo in northern Italy) seems to give weight to the herd immunity argument. In my view, mind. That is further strengthened by those comparative graphs (35%, 22%,13.5% and latterly 8%) Ricardo posted. It appears that there are fairly predictable evolutions of this virus (possibly influenced to a greater or lesser extent by protective policies instigated by countries). So, it appears peak HAS been reached in Italy. Once we have tested in the community (getting representative examples even) then we will have very useful data.

It gives me some hope in all of this. Thanks for the article as it's helped me in my own inarticulate, semi-rambling & number crunching thoughts.

 

I'm hoping I'm not going too early here but I think both Italy and Spain are past their peaks

 

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25 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Well this is interesting. I have, during my (one a day) dog walks tried to work out the likely percentages of dying from CV too. All quite back of a fag packet stuff (but an eminently harmless thing to consider in isolation).

I'm aware via feedback from friends that at their workforce some 25% of employees are off with symptoms. And these percentages are remarkably the same from a few sources whether very large businesses or smaller. I hear stories on radio too that a quarter of the workforce is off.

Anyway, sonyc did some maths. 25% of around 30m working population means 7.5m have probably been affected. This could even be a low estimate because the 25% figure has been mentioned over at least a fortnight. Yet, just assuming a cautious figure anyway, with the current 5000 reported deaths the likelihood statistically of anyone dying equates to 0.067% (ignoring any factors like age or existing health of course, and merely taking the crude average).

All very rough I realise. Yet, just reflecting on the fact that some 1.9million have contacted NHS 111 and stating they have had CV symptoms and my very crude 7.5m 'theory' (which actually could very well be 3 times that amount ....as the author of this article states, the virus was very probably circulating a long time before cases started to emerge, likewise Iceland's experience and that little town of Vo in northern Italy) seems to give weight to the herd immunity argument. In my view, mind. That is further strengthened by those comparative graphs (35%, 22%,13.5% and latterly 8%) Ricardo posted. It appears that there are fairly predictable evolutions of this virus (possibly influenced to a greater or lesser extent by protective policies instigated by countries). So, it appears peak HAS been reached in Italy. Once we have tested in the community (getting representative examples even) then we will have very useful data.

It gives me some hope in all of this. Thanks for the article as it's helped me in my own inarticulate, semi-rambling & number crunching thoughts.

 

7,4m would mean an R0 of some 3.4. Possible but higher than most estimates. The honest answer from the deputy CMO tonight is they don’t know until they have done widespread antibody testing. That will be a major step in understanding this virus. I sincerely hope it has been that widespread but until testing has been done everyone is just guessing. We shall hopefully have a better idea in the next few weeks but until then it is just playing with a calculator as I’ve also done but that it s all it is without evidence. 

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2 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Yup, its swings and roundabouts ron. The new cases today has leaped  upwards a lot though ,going thru 5,000 in a day for 1st time..at 5,903. This is partly due i guess to the continued increase in testings, which are now around 11 or 12k a day. Now to, each Tuesday, ONS will give out a weekly death count for those who died outside hospital with Coronavirus or Covid 19 mentioned on  the death certificate. Whether these deaths will be added to the PHE hospital death total i dont know.

Does Worldometer only count hospital deaths? I didn't know that.

I think if you stick to one (reliable) source then, whatever the delay, you can get some idea of what's happening (providing the criteria don't change). The mortality figures do seem to indicate a plateauing in Italy, & perhaps signs in Spain, & maybe ours are starting to level off too. I wish I'd kept a record of daily deaths per country - is there one available?

The one thing that strikes me is that, with one or two exceptions, the curves for infections & deaths are remarkably close together for all countries. Gives a little bit of hope we're nearing the peak.

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Just now, Mark .Y. said:

I'm hoping I'm not going too early here but I think both Italy and Spain are past their peaks

 

Me too. The peak may be a flattened type though rather than a sharp one. The numbers are still going up but the rates of increase are sharply declining. Yet we don't know the length of the downward phase. China's took twice as long as it took to reach their peak to give the only example (which probably isn't a good one).

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2 minutes ago, T said:

7,4m would mean an R0 of some 3.4. Possible but higher than most estimates. The honest answer from the deputy CMO tonight is they don’t know until they have done widespread antibody testing. That will be a major step in understanding this virus. I sincerely hope it has been that widespread but until testing has been done everyone is just guessing. We shall hopefully have a better idea in the next few weeks but until then it is just playing with a calculator as I’ve also done but that it s all it is without evidence. 

Yes, agree and also admitted it was my amateur calculations T.

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2 minutes ago, ron obvious said:

Does Worldometer only count hospital deaths? I didn't know that.

I think if you stick to one (reliable) source then, whatever the delay, you can get some idea of what's happening (providing the criteria don't change). The mortality figures do seem to indicate a plateauing in Italy, & perhaps signs in Spain, & maybe ours are starting to level off too. I wish I'd kept a record of daily deaths per country - is there one available?

The one thing that strikes me is that, with one or two exceptions, the curves for infections & deaths are remarkably close together for all countries. Gives a little bit of hope we're nearing the peak.

Just click on any country on Worldmeter and it takes you to graphs and bar charts with the numbers (if you hover over the dates)

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37 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yes, agree and also admitted it was my amateur calculations T.

Agreed and with articles that Ron posted. The number of infections varies enormously depending on the R0 and start of infections. That is why the medics and govt really can’t talk meaningfully about Exit details until we know what we are dealing with probably in the next few weeks and potential treatments in a couple of months. 
 

Another medical professor confirmed today that they were confident that vaccines prototypes would be available in the autumn but would be at least a year for them to be generally available. It is going to be a long haul for the vulnerable unless natural herd immunity or treatments develop. 

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From a conversation I’ve just had with someone else (over the phone, not in person of course).... and slightly off topic, but sort of related to the lockdown.

Anyone think the lockdown is a precedent which might/should be used to completely ban cigarettes and smoking? 

I couldn’t find stats for the Uk (although didn’t look too hard), but this article reckons 41,000 people in the USA die from second hand smoke each year. 480,000 die from smoking in total. Our population is around a fifth of the USA’s population.

So the overly simplistic method of working it out would suggest around 96,000 total deaths related to smoking and 8,200 deaths from second hand smoke each year in the UK. I’ve found one article which says just over 12,000 died from second hand smoke in the Uk in 2003, so 8,200 is probably about right on the basis smoking Is probably less common now than in 2003.

That’s only deaths remember. There will be loads more who are treated but don’t die in any given year as well, so the burden caused by cigarettes on the NHS must be enormous. And there are a large number of people who die from second hand smoke - which they can’t really do any more about than they can catching coronavirus.

https://www.cdc.gov/tobacco/data_statistics/fact_sheets/health_effects/tobacco_related_mortality/index.htm#shs-death

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Smoking is (literally) dying out. No regulation however severe will stop the craving - however it has helped to stop the take up.

In spite of the likes pf Priti Patel accepting money to campaign against tougher legislation.

Smoking will eventually go the way of taking snuff

....snuffed out

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3 hours ago, T said:

Agreed and with articles that Ron posted. The number of infections varies enormously depending on the R0 and start of infections. That is why the medics and govt really can’t talk meaningfully about Exit details until we know what we are dealing with probably in the next few weeks and potential treatments in a couple of months. 
 

Another medical professor confirmed today that they were confident that vaccines prototypes would be available in the autumn but would be at least a year for them to be generally available. It is going to be a long haul for the vulnerable unless natural herd immunity or treatments develop. 

Its going to be a long haul for everyone to. I honestly cannot see a complete freedom from all forms of lockdowns until a vaccine is found, produced and made to be taken, nobody has any idea when that will be, its total guesswork right now. So, there may be partial lifting of certain  parts of the lockdown, but the virus has the capability of returning to knock any improvement  back to square one.

But absolutely, the one bigger, much bigger, affect the virus will give us all, be it  personally, nationally or globally, is the economical situation. Just my opinion, but we are looking at worse scenario than two world wars and the late 20s deperession all rolled into one...and then some. Grim is not the word, people talk of getting back to normal...for most, it never will.

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I would suggest that is a bit of 'over play'.

Once the pressure on the NHS eases so will the restrictions/

The economy will 'bounce back. if only because of the lessons learnt from previous deptressions.

And the world is never the same after each day

Whether we are the same that is the moot point. Will ignorance and greed still hold sway.....I think so ?

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7 hours ago, kick it off said:

Russian media are saying he's on a ventilator. 

 I wouldn’t be surprised at this stage in his infection. There doesn’t seem to be any half measures with this, you either seem to start your recovery or go down hill pretty fast. 

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9 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Its going to be a long haul for everyone to. I honestly cannot see a complete freedom from all forms of lockdowns until a vaccine is found, produced and made to be taken, nobody has any idea when that will be, its total guesswork right now. So, there may be partial lifting of certain  parts of the lockdown, but the virus has the capability of returning to knock any improvement  back to square one.

But absolutely, the one bigger, much bigger, affect the virus will give us all, be it  personally, nationally or globally, is the economical situation. Just my opinion, but we are looking at worse scenario than two world wars and the late 20s deperession all rolled into one...and then some. Grim is not the word, people talk of getting back to normal...for most, it never will.

Generally accepted that tracking testing and treating will be way out for majority. S Korea being the example. Testing and tracking options expected in next few weeks and treatments in next few months. Basic hygiene and basic  distancing  and working from home if you can could well become the norm. Social activity may remain restricted  while school and work activities less Restricted. Eg sport may restart but behind closed doors. But it will depend on the testing and treatment developed and how the virus develops. 

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Posted (edited)
19 minutes ago, T said:

Generally accepted that tracking testing and treating will be way out for majority. S Korea being the example. Testing and tracking options expected in next few weeks and treatments in next few months. Basic hygiene and basic  distancing  and working from home if you can could well become the norm. Social activity may remain restricted  while school and work activities less Restricted. Eg sport may restart but behind closed doors. But it will depend on the testing and treatment developed and how the virus develops. 

Testing and contact tracing is the traditional public health approach. As I have said previously, a massive testing capacity and increased number of public health officials to trace contacts of those that become infected is the way out of this, with some form of ID system and release from lockdown for those that become immune. But to do that we need to get the numbers way down from where they are now so it becomes manageable.

We need to add in the continuation of social distancing, wearing of face masks, widespread availability of sanitisers in workplaces and public places, any intervention that may have even a small impact in likelihood of spread of infection.

Edited by Van wink

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Agreed VW. It is clear for instance  that many with a bit better IT equipment could carry on working from home for instance reducing the overall risk to everyone. 
 

I do think that Aggy etc has legitimate  ethical concerns about immunity certificates and I haven’t see a solution to that. It would certainly make sense for critical workers to start with and it may just be a practical economic requirement more generally until vaccines available at which time those without get priority. I certainly would for example be sympathetic to club nights for critical workers medical, grocery supply chain etc   They deserve it.    Anonymous contact trackers for instance are being developed. Testing and technology will be key. There will be compromises as information medical capacity tracing testing technology and treatments increase then restrictions can be decreased. It needs to balanced over time. Meanwhile maintaining strong restrictions is right. 

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I briefly popped on here late last night and noticed a thread about Boris being poorly in hospital. As it's disappeared, I''m guessing it got deleted due to the nasty comments that some decided to put?

It's at moments like this that you start to see people's true nature.

OTBC

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11 minutes ago, Disco Dales Jockstrap said:

I briefly popped on here late last night and noticed a thread about Boris being poorly in hospital. As it's disappeared, I''m guessing it got deleted due to the nasty comments that some decided to put?

It's at moments like this that you start to see people's true nature.

OTBC

Now who on earth would do that Disco ?

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Posted (edited)
26 minutes ago, T said:

Agreed VW. It is clear for instance  that many with a bit better IT equipment could carry on working from home for instance reducing the overall risk to everyone. 
 

I do think that Aggy etc has legitimate  ethical concerns about immunity certificates and I haven’t see a solution to that. It would certainly make sense for critical workers to start with and it may just be a practical economic requirement more generally until vaccines available at which time those without get priority. I certainly would for example be sympathetic to club nights for critical workers medical, grocery supply chain etc   They deserve it.    Anonymous contact trackers for instance are being developed. Testing and technology will be key. There will be compromises as information medical capacity tracing testing technology and treatments increase then restrictions can be decreased. It needs to balanced over time. Meanwhile maintaining strong restrictions is right. 

One of the key drivers of the current strategy, as we all know, is to prevent NHS capacity becoming overwhelmed, the knock on result being that the NHS is unable to provide most of its usual health care services. There may be a possibility that as numbers of admissions plateau and then begin to drop that the Nightingale hospitals become the CV19 specialist hospitals and that the rest of the NHS estate returns to its previous use. The Nightingales can remain prepared for any future upsurge or indeed mutation of the virus equipped with all the necessary range of facilities for treatment. The risk of cross contamination of patients in the existing hospitals is a problem, I know of two people who have contracted CV19 whilst in hospital for another reason.

Edited by Van wink
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