Corona Virus main thread

[Essjayess 307]

8 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Being just behind France E, and what you've outlined confirms a worry I've had .... because I've been surprised that UK new active cases have not increased in rate over the last few days. Those French spikes are disconcerting.

I have a particular  concern about how things are going more locally here in Norfolk actually. We are one of fastest  growing regions for  getting new cases, for sure we are not in the London or Birmingham  type disaster zones but a week ago i counted where Norfolk was on the UTLA / NHS regions  list for new cases...we were the 59th worst region at that time. 2 days ago Norfolk was 47th worst, yesterday 45th and today 42nd, so a steady worsening for the county.

40 new cases  announced today, by far the highest daily rise...total now 341 and deaths now at 68. Interestingly combined recoveries from N&N and QE at Lynn is 61, no figures for JP at Gorleston. 263 cases for Suffolk in total. Just shows again how much this lockdown is needed, and needed for quite a long time ahead.

[Surfer 1,547]

52 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Think it was called Spanish flu simply because Spain being neutral in WW1 could report and did on it openly. It was hushed up elsewhere (bad for moral etc).

Yes that is correct. An early example of “ no I do not take responsibility for that” 

[Essjayess 307]

12 minutes ago, Branston Pickle said:

The problem with all our data is that it is not necessarily comparable to other countries.  In the UK people are only tested if in hospital (so potentially tens(?) of thousands ill at home/old people’s homes are excluded)  + deaths are only being recorded as Covid-related if in hospital (ditto the above) which means both are grossly understated.  
We also have a rather sinister thing of older folk being told to fill out DNR forms when perfectly fit, the idea being that paramedics won’t then attend. 
 

One knock-on is our apparently awful death rate compared to others - 10%?or thereabouts compared to 1-2% elsewhere -  but this is far more related to the measurement.

It does seem the goal is to keep (some of) the stats down rather than report correct data - surely it would be better to be right.  The truth will come out in the end, but it’ll be way down the road and no doubt be all-but negated by other things 

Actually BP, most nations  are doing exactly as we are, i.e. just testing  the ill who arrive at hospital. I have checked sources over the past few weeks  from a heap of nations around the globe and the way the UK has been testing is pretty standard  for most places.

[Van wink 2,994]

43 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

France had a couple of days with deaths above 1000 a day last week, they actually did include a lot of nursing and care home deaths, but the stats today, 11,000  new cases and 1400 deaths, apparently do not include the same as last week. The French authorities  banned outdoor exercise as they knew these horror figures were coming, theyve even admitted today they have not reached the peak yet. Indeed its shaping up to be worse than Italy.  Also, be prepared to see such figures here to in the coming days, as we are a few days behind France.

The exercise ban is just in Paris I believe.

[snake-eyes 13]

EssjayEss

 

where are you getting your hospital stats from?

[Branston Pickle 3,654]

 

23 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Actually BP, most nations  are doing exactly as we are, i.e. just testing  the ill who arrive at hospital. I have checked sources over the past few weeks  from a heap of nations around the globe and the way the UK has been testing is pretty standard  for most places.

That’s not correct for the countries who are apparently best on top of things  - do we want to be compared to the worst/learn nothing from the best?  Apparently not. We had the opportunity to learn and didn’t take it. 

But the fact is we aren’t even doing that - corona testing has been being used very much as a last resort in our local hospitals, and many others.  I’m still far from convinced we are consistent/counting the same way.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Branston Pickle

[T 190]

Germany and  S Korea doing better. Reason according to CMO as the WHO said is test and trace. That is why UK keep talking about trying to catch up on testing with better performing countries. Good to hear that they are talking  and willing to learn from better performing countries. Fortunately medics and scientists are more interested in knowledge and evidence and learning than nationality. 

[Branston Pickle 3,654]

Talking about catching up for weeks and weeks, and actually doing it, are two absolutely different things.  It’s almost as though we have been trying for the much maligned herd immunity by the back door.

Edited April 7, 2020 by Branston Pickle

[Bill 1,788]

On 02/04/2020 at 13:17, ricardo said:

BBC news saying WHO on the verge of changing advice re mask wearing.

whereas the WHO have merely confirmed yet again what I have said all along

"There was no evidence that wearing a mask in the community prevented healthy people from picking up respiratory infections including Covid-19, it said. "

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/07/face-masks-cannot-stop-healthy-people-getting-covid-19-says-who

Tue 7 Apr 2020 16.52

[Taiwan Canary 144]

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/04/why-wear-a-mask-may-be-our-best-weapon-to-stop-coronavirus?CMP=fb_gu&utm_medium=Social&utm_source=Facebook&fbclid=IwAR2KOMK9B4HHkXzME-CfRilwllyrTE1JA-rGT7kBcuatR2VTk4YjZjDoXi4#Echobox=1585992709

[BroadstairsR 2,159]

Another very important factor about wearing a mask (and suitable eye protection) which is not stressed enough is that if a person goes out suitably adorned in this fashion then that person is less able to touch his/her face or eyes.

 

This is important if that person happens to touch a surface such as an escalator rail, a supermarket trolley or whatever that has been subject to the droplets of an infected person. Take the mask off and wash hands thoroughly when you get home is the accepted rule.

Wearing a mask is no big deal, not particularly intrusive and sensible and those countries who accept it as the norm (mainly Asian) seem to be coping with the spread more successfully that western countries who seem to have a higher percentage of dissidents.

It is harmless and, even though the level of protection afforded by masking is debatable, there remains good evidence to suggest that the practice inhibits spread, as the above article suggests. 

Personally, I usually see little need for protection when walking along a street (or cycling,) but prefer to be fully kitted out when entering a supermarket or any other place where I might come into closer contact with an infected person than is advisable.

This virus is very, very infectious, any measure that might inhibit it's spread should not be refuted, however small or unproven it may be.

Thank you Taiwan Canary that article speaks volumes. I came back from the Far East on Eva Air when infection rates in this country were in their infancy. All the cabin crew were wearing (N95) masks. None of the passengers. Draw your own conclusions..

Edited April 8, 2020 by BroadstairsR

[Mark .Y. 352]

10 hours ago, Essjayess said:

France had a couple of days with deaths above 1000 a day last week, they actually did include a lot of nursing and care home deaths, but the stats today, 11,000  new cases and 1400 deaths, apparently do not include the same as last week. The French authorities  banned outdoor exercise as they knew these horror figures were coming, theyve even admitted today they have not reached the peak yet. Indeed its shaping up to be worse than Italy.  Also, be prepared to see such figures here to in the coming days, as we are a few days behind France.

I've seen a couple of articles around suggesting the French people have not been good at staying in and sticking to the social distancing rules.

I posted on here a week or so ago about talking to some Dutch people and they were saying that, in general, the Dutch are a pretty rational, compliant population and do tend to do what their Government tells them.

The French, on the other hand, seem to tend to like nothing more than a good protest/riot and are maybe a lot less willing to fall in line with their Government's instructions.

I know I'm generalising here but there may be a little bit of truth in it ??

[T 190]

Consensus that regular  masks don’t protect you but do help stop you spreading infection to others. 
 

Europe has just developed an app which warns you if you have been close to another confirmed infected person based on Bluetooth. The Europe version is an anonymous version of the app concept used as part of the successful strategy in S Korea and Singapore.  You would be told if you have been in contact with an infected person with idea you are advised to get tested/isolate  The app has already been tested and will be available after Easter 
 

The idea is once the infection rate has been reduced you could have more targeted restrictions. This would be in addition to the fitness app Monitoring to help Idenify hot spots which is already available  

This is more part of a longer term solution to have managed lifting of restrictions. It is disappointing that the UK is not participating but hopefully UK will be willing to cooperate and catch up with Europe on developing and using technology as part of the Exit strategy.

[Van wink 2,994]

“Consensus that regular  masks don’t protect you but do help stop you spreading infection to others”

Agreed. When we have a phased return we will need to use all available methods to prevent transmission which must include facemasks.

 

Edited April 8, 2020 by Van wink

[Ian 1,129]

2 minutes ago, T said:

Consensus that regular  masks don’t protect you but do help stop you spreading infection to others. 
 

Europe has just developed an app which warns you if you have been close to another confirmed infected person based on Bluetooth. The Europe version is an anonymous version of the app concept used as part of the successful strategy in S Korea and Singapore.  You would be told if you have been in contact with an infected person with idea you are advised to get tested/isolate  The app has already been tested and will be available after Easter 
 

The idea is once the infection rate has been reduced you could have more targeted restrictions. This would be in addition to the fitness app Monitoring to help Idenify hot spots which is already available  

This is more part of a longer term solution to have managed lifting of restrictions. It is disappointing that the UK is not participating but hopefully UK will be willing to cooperate and catch up with Europe on developing and using technology as part of the Exit strategy.

Does this actually use Bluetooth or location services?

I intend to do my own research on this app, but from what you've said I'm not convinced that's going to be reliable enough. It presumably depends on people having their phones on their person, Bluetooth on at all times, and more importantly, the app owner/Government having a log of exactly who was where and at what time. You say it's anonymous but it would still need a handset Id of some sort to function.

In addition, it would require people to have it installed in anticipation of the next wave of the pandemic, as you would miss those weeks/months of interactions.

Considering that people lose their heads when the idea of a National Id card is floated, I'm not convinced the app idea would go down too well?

[Van wink 2,994]

13 hours ago, Van wink said:

Would be really good to see a bit more emphasis placed on recovery rates. 

Nice story on front of EDP today about a Norfolk guy, 76, diabetes, chronic heart and lung problems who was admitted to hospital with a broken hip, contracted CV19 and made a full recovery. Would be nice to get a lot more reporting of these stories. Appreciate the emphasis is on maintaining the lockdown and not wanting people to become complacent but a bit of good news will help with mental health.

[Mello Yello 2,289]

4 minutes ago, T said:

Consensus that regular  masks don’t protect you but do help stop you spreading infection to others. 
 

Europe has just developed an app which warns you if you have been close to another confirmed infected person based on Bluetooth. The Europe version is an anonymous version of the app concept used as part of the successful strategy in S Korea and Singapore.  You would be told if you have been in contact with an infected person with idea you are advised to get tested/isolate  The app has already been tested and will be available after Easter 
 

The idea is once the infection rate has been reduced you could have more targeted restrictions. This would be in addition to the fitness app Monitoring to help Idenify hot spots which is already available  

This is more part of a longer term solution to have managed lifting of restrictions. It is disappointing that the UK is not participating but hopefully UK will be willing to cooperate and catch up with Europe on developing and using technology as part of the Exit strategy.

I find your continuous UK bashing rather tiresome..... 

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

Surely the lesson learnt is that there are no shortcuts or quick fixes technological or otherwise but hard work and diligence to getting on top of a pandemic such as this.

Test, isolate, track, test, isolate, track, test, isolate, track.

Continue until pandemic gone. No short-cuts.

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

19 minutes ago, Mello Yello said:

I find your continuous UK bashing rather tiresome..... 

Good  idea! Lets wrap ourselves in Union Jacks, that'll learn that bluddy virus. 

[T 190]

I find the apparent Uk response considering political nationalism  over heath worrisome. Very sad that some people think that nationalism is more important than lives and jobs. Eight European countries tool part but UK didn’t. That is concerning  

this appears to be political idealoogy as it is is not coming from the CMO given his comments yesterday. So it is a real issue  It  may be tiresome to those with nationalistic beliefs but I agree with the CMO that we should be looking at what other countries are doing as lives are more important  

 

There is a lot of good things the UK is doing of course which I have also mentioned. The quality of information from the NHS and BBC compares very favourable.  Also the shielding Programmme  The volunteer programme. The expansion of ICU capacity. So a lot of good things UK is doing so that doesn’t mean I’m UK bashing at all as I’ve also pointed out good things about the UK but it is just commonsense that we should cooperate and learn from other countries where they are doing better. It is  is concerning when we have a very nationalistic government. It surely doesn’t matter where ideas come from but that countries are willing to learn from each other. I’m sorry if the concept of cooperating with other countries to save lives and jobs upsets people but it is a sad view of the world that people can’t take constructive criticism  to save lives. 

[T 190]

16 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Surely the lesson learnt is that there are no shortcuts or quick fixes technological or otherwise but hard work and diligence to getting on top of a pandemic such as this.

Test, isolate, track, test, isolate, track, test, isolate, track.

Continue until pandemic gone. No short-cuts.

Absolutely. No one is saying this is the Silver bullet solution. Merely part of the strategy to help test track and isolate as phsyösical tracking requires a lot of time and resources and people don’t fully know who they have had contact with. 

[Mello Yello 2,289]

1 minute ago, wcorkcanary said:

Good  idea! Lets wrap ourselves in Union Jacks, that'll learn that bluddy virus. 

As long as the Union Flag is not upside down when wrapped around oneself.....

[Yellow Fever 3,767]

1 minute ago, Mello Yello said:

As long as the Union Flag is not upside down when wrapped around oneself.....

I doubt it will be around that long now. The slightly offset 'diagonal' flag St. Patrick is already well faded and the blue of the Saltire is also fading. There will be no right way round left!

By the way I don't see any particular UK bashing in T's comments. Just a wish for obvious common sense collaboration with our EU friends against a common virus enemy.

[T 190]

30 minutes ago, Ian said:

Does this actually use Bluetooth or location services?

I intend to do my own research on this app, but from what you've said I'm not convinced that's going to be reliable enough. It presumably depends on people having their phones on their person, Bluetooth on at all times, and more importantly, the app owner/Government having a log of exactly who was where and at what time. You say it's anonymous but it would still need a handset Id of some sort to function.

In addition, it would require people to have it installed in anticipation of the next wave of the pandemic, as you would miss those weeks/months of interactions.

Considering that people lose their heads when the idea of a National Id card is floated, I'm not convinced the app idea would go down too well?

I know IT colleagues worked on it but I’m certainly no tech expert. No one is claiming it is anywhere near perfect. The idea is it would help ID Hotspots eg the Ischgl apres ski bar and help trace and warn contacts. It is Bluetooth Yes it would have to be on you and Bluetooth switched on but for me that is generally the case and I just leave the app on.  It is voluntary. I understand the anonymity is strong to comply with EU data protection. The app I have shows a random ID.  I think this is really what they have added to the S Korea concept. They reckon they would need 40pc sign up to be able to ID Hotspots and hope for 60pc. No one is claiming this is a solution but a tool as part of the mitigation  efforts but is one of reasons given for better performance in S Korea.  Physical tracking is not perfect either but that doesn’t mean you shouldn’t do that  

  I understand ID is an issue in UK but just accepted in other countries. I have an ID card and was a bit hesitant but find it very practical. I’ve already downloaded the fitness app. I don’t go anyway dodgy so if it helps save lives and jobs I will download. 

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

19 minutes ago, Mello Yello said:

As long as the Union Flag is not upside down when wrapped around oneself.....

Shhhh. There are some  patriots that dont even know there is a right way up.

[ron obvious 1,502]

I think the objection to masks is psychological. Covering your face is at best unfriendly & at worst sinister & threatening.

Obviously at the moment it may be necessary for good reason but it might take a bit to overcome our instinctive reaction.

 

[T 190]

12 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I doubt it will be around that long now. The slightly offset 'diagonal' flag St. Patrick is already well faded and the blue of the Saltire is also fading. There will be no right way round left!

By the way I don't see any particular UK bashing in T's comments. Just a wish for obvious common sense collaboration with our EU friends against a common virus enemy.

Exactly 

[Mello Yello 2,289]

26 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I doubt it will be around that long now. The slightly offset 'diagonal' flag St. Patrick is already well faded and the blue of the 

26 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I doubt it will be around that long now. The slightly offset 'diagonal' flag St. Patrick is already well faded and the blue of the Saltire is also fading. There will be no right way round left!

By the way I don't see any particular UK bashing in T's comments. Just a wish for obvious common sense collaboration with our EU friends against a common virus enemy.

is also fading. There will be no right way round left!

By the way I don't see any particular UK bashing in T's comments. Just a wish for obvious common sense collaboration with our EU friends against a common virus enemy.

"Common sense collaboration" requires the adherence of the populace to the rules and regs that feature on the tellybox and radio and other media stuff.....Obey those rules and we're on the way to a healthy Utopia....

 

15 minutes ago, wcorkcanary said:

Shhhh. There are some  patriots that dont even know there is a right way up.

I know....shocking isn't it.....(I'm not a patriot by the way just a bloke comfortable with my Country).....

Edited April 8, 2020 by Mello Yello
spelling

[ricardo 7,384]

28 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I doubt it will be around that long now. The slightly offset 'diagonal' flag St. Patrick is already well faded and the blue of the Saltire is also fading. There will be no right way round left!

 

😁 

Nations yearning to be free😁

Who'd  a thunk it👍

[Mello Yello 2,289]

15 minutes ago, T said:

Exactly 

Not politico then?.....