Jump to content
Fuzzar

Corona Virus main thread

Recommended Posts

7 hours ago, ricardo said:

Had a letter from DHSC this morning re the Tier rules. Included in the advice was a section advising the taking of vitamin D and an offer for exremely vulnerable people to register for a free 4 month supply.

I posted a BMA article about this back in April, seems they have finally taken action.ūüĎć

I've been taking daily Vitamin D for a while as it is well known to be beneficial to the immune system.  My view back in April was that as soon as it was publicised that BAME people were more susceptible to covid that it could be a deficiency not least because of their darker skin colour  and the rather less sunny weather in UK which inhibits their take-up.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
3 hours ago, Van wink said:

100 tabs at Sainsbury were around £4 KG

I bought three packs of 96 for price of two at Tesco, so 10 quid for  288.  So 4p each for you and 3.47p for me.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Van wink said:

100 tabs at Sainsbury were around £4 KG

Thanks VW. Good job I've got a bus pass. Our nearest Sainsbury's is in Truro. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
11 hours ago, Badger said:

I'd agree with much of that, but I'm not sure that there is "mounting evidence against" the lockdown - it is still very much a fringe opinion and often seems to be politically motivated, like the Smalley video that you posted.

Lockdown works purely because it reduces the number of potential contacts that would occur under other conditions and consequently reduces the demand on the NHS.  Too many ignore rules when outside of lockdown for any other solution to work, sadly.  It is inevitable that we will get a massive spike after the Christmas easing and another firmer lockdown in January, especially as the tests that they are giving students are shockingly only 50% effective, according to the news today. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

I'm showing you that deaths where pneumonia is on the death certificate is actually higher than deaths where covid is on the death certificate. It doesn't mean that covid deaths are not serious but that we should treat them in context of the total situation. It raises several questions when you see things in context. At the beginning of covid we had no data to help us make decisions, only guesswork. Now we have a ton of data which should be leading us to make better decisions. If you don't want to view the data and prefer to view the situation through the lens of what we knew in February, then that's up to you. I prefer to bring empirical data to the table rather than relying on dodgy Sage models. 

Pneumonia is a symptom of covid but I assume from that that many other deaths are non-covid pneumonia. It will be interesting to see the five-year average death rate graph for this winter after this. Thankfully we will soon see the vulnerable vaccinated.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
21 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:
 Number of death occurrences where Influenza, Pneumonia or COVID-19 were mentioned on the death certificate by sex, January to August 2020, England and Wales1,2,3,4,5,6,7
                               
  England and Wales1 England2,3 Wales2,3            
  Influenza Pneumonia COVID-19 Influenza Pneumonia COVID-19 Influenza Pneumonia COVID-19            
Persons 506 69,781 52,327 477 65,532 49,686 27 4,171 2,566            
Males 235 37,500 28,794 225 35,313 27,370 8 2,137 1,376            
Females 271 32,281 23,533 252 30,219 22,316 19 2,034 1,190            
                               
Source: Office for National Statistics                        
                               
Notes:                              
1.      Figures include deaths of non-residents.                        
2.      Figures exclude deaths of non-residents.                        
3.      Figures are based on boundaries as of May 2020.                      
4.      Based on date a death occurred, registered up to 5 September 2020.                  
5.      Figures for 2020 are based on provisional mortality data.                    
6.      The International Classification of Diseases, tenth edition (ICD-10) definitions are as follows: coronavirus (COVID-19) (U07.1 and U07.2), influenza (J09-J11) or pneumonia (J12-J18).
7.      Includes deaths where Influenza, Pneumonia or COVID-19 were mentioned anywhere on the death certificate including as the underlying cause.      
                               

So figures include and exclude deaths of non-residents.¬†¬† ūü§£ūüôɬ†¬† confused ?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

23 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

I'm showing you that deaths where pneumonia is on the death certificate is actually higher than deaths where covid is on the death certificate.

ūü§¶‚Äć‚ôāÔłŹPneumonia is an inflammation of the lungs caused by infection - viral or bacterial. The¬†vast majority of the pneumonia cases referenced here would have been caused by Covid! Wherever do you get this nonsense?

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

A death in Cornwall this week but the number of new cases dropping to around 20 per 100k.

Mind the strong wind at the moment means 2 kilometres social distancing.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

image.thumb.png.164e8317c68178d60a2b276f7ced9f4c.png

image.thumb.png.6b1aa06a63518858f0d9e5934d1caaa5.png

Yesterdays European.

Italy         24099 - 814 

France    11221 - 397

Spain   5554 - 214

Germany  23541 - 431 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

image.thumb.png.845b3e7e34b96d4873b89ac0351a57cf.png

image.thumb.png.da503ba76164edf983894da438b97708.png

Yesterdays European.

Italy         21052 - 662

France    12923 - 214

Spain  

Germany  17812 - 284

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Those caes still seem a bit high to me, I know the Zoe guy says they are dropping rapidly but I had hoped these numbers would be down a fair bit more by now

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
38 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Those caes still seem a bit high to me, I know the Zoe guy says they are dropping rapidly but I had hoped these numbers would be down a fair bit more by now

Nearly 400k tests.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, ricardo said:

Nearly 400k tests.

Yeh, I did notice the high level of testing Ricardo, guess I just hoped to see cases down more than they actually are. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

Yeh, I did notice the high level of testing Ricardo, guess I just hoped to see cases down more than they actually are. 

I fear we will be seeing a reverse, in the numbers, certainly after Christmas. Let’s hope people behave themselves.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, Herman said:

It's not going to happen is it Winky? 

 About as likely as a trade deal

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Looking at those Xmas shopper photos and masses outside Primark etc they look like super spreaders events.  Not convinced of a fall at all. I believe there might even be a further lockdown. So much depends on vaccinations. 

  • Like 2

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
20 minutes ago, Van wink said:

 About as likely as a trade deal

Excellent analogy, with Brexit we have two very bad (though not equally bad) possible outcomes - an extremely poor deal or no deal at all.

So with the virus, if we are lucky then the large majority will be sensible and only a small minority will take risks but it looks far more likely than the proportions will be fairly even or even that the 'sensibles\cautious' will be in a minority.

But either way whether they call it lockdown or Tier 3 we are looking at some really significant restrictions again post Christmas.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/07/densely-packed-bame-communities-in-england-bear-brunt-of-covid-19?

At last a deeper study into inequality showing how Covid spreads in densely populated streets  (rather than the nonsense put on this thread by a poster back in summer about ethnicity being the main issue rather than considering the wider factors). BAME rates of infection vary by localised geography not by racial origin per se. Bradford for example, is a large metropolitan borough but is made up of perhaps 4 or 5 kinds of Bradford. Norfolk is blessed with much lower housing densities and higher income cohorts.

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, sonyc said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/07/densely-packed-bame-communities-in-england-bear-brunt-of-covid-19?

At last a deeper study into inequality showing how Covid spreads in densely populated streets  (rather than the nonsense put on this thread by a poster back in summer about ethnicity being the main issue rather than considering the wider factors). BAME rates of infection vary by localised geography not by racial origin per se. Bradford for example, is a large metropolitan borough but is made up of perhaps 4 or 5 kinds of Bradford. Norfolk is blessed with much lower housing densities and higher income cohorts.

I cant disagree with your take on this at all. But.....isn’t it kind of obvious though that dense populations allow for easier spread?  Was this ever really seriously disputed?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 

But either way whether they call it lockdown or Tier 3 we are looking at some really significant restrictions again post Christmas.

Yup,  although we are more resilient than we were and some populations undoubedly have good levels of immunity there is still much for the virus to burn through.  On going restrictions are probably inevitable.

We can see this in Wales.   Already the virus has made up all ground lost during their lockdown and they will have a real challenge over  the festive period, not a great time to have rising levels. Same applies, albeit to  a lesser extent to the rest of the UK1502049152_Screenshot_20201207-135934_BBCNews.thumb.jpg.17da661e9eaeec992a631b3cdeea3333.jpg

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
26 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Yup,  although we are more resilient than we were and some populations undoubedly have good levels of immunity there is still much for the virus to burn through.  On going restrictions are probably inevitable.

We can see this in Wales.   Already the virus has made up all ground lost during their lockdown and they will have a real challenge over  the festive period, not a great time to have rising levels. Same applies, albeit to  a lesser extent to the rest of the UK1502049152_Screenshot_20201207-135934_BBCNews.thumb.jpg.17da661e9eaeec992a631b3cdeea3333.jpg

Welsh Government really has messed this up, a tough lockdown which I agreed with but then they just seemed to let things rip again. Total chaos, what on earth was the point of that.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

Yup,  although we are more resilient than we were and some populations undoubedly have good levels of immunity there is still much for the virus to burn through.  On going restrictions are probably inevitable.

We can see this in Wales.   Already the virus has made up all ground lost during their lockdown and they will have a real challenge over  the festive period, not a great time to have rising levels. Same applies, albeit to  a lesser extent to the rest of the UK1502049152_Screenshot_20201207-135934_BBCNews.thumb.jpg.17da661e9eaeec992a631b3cdeea3333.jpg

What was the level of testing in Wales on October 29th?  You have to view these numbers in relation to tests to have a better picture of what they are saying. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I cant disagree with your take on this at all. But.....isn’t it kind of obvious though that dense populations allow for easier spread?  Was this ever really seriously disputed?

Yes it was. I disputed it as I didn't like the intimation. I won't go back to reference it (a very prominent Brexit favouring poster).

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now

×
×
  • Create New...