Corona Virus main thread

[sonyc 5,509]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Welsh Government really has messed this up, a tough lockdown which I agreed with but then they just seemed to let things rip again. Total chaos, what on earth was the point of that.

I felt at the time it was a good move (tough and therefore would be effective) and was established to influence the Xmas period. Yet, it appears either mis-timed  or  that there is no other really effective minimisation strategy than a locking down. Add to that people who do not follow social distancing. 

I expect that rates will vary very greatly of course.... the more crowded valleys being so different to say Pembrokeshire or Merionethshire for example. 

Even here, the rates between wards (and there are dozens for the city) vary dramatically. Guess it's those 3 C's.

Edited December 7, 2020 by sonyc

[ricardo 7,381]

 

Yesterdays European.

Italy         18887  - 564

France    11022 - 174

Spain  

Germany  14750 - 184

Looks like all of Europe plus UK now over the hump.

Still very bad in countries in Eastern Europe that missed much of the first wave.

[ricardo 7,381]

[ricardo 7,381]

The ZOE App is now down 22% on the week and over 50% on the month👍

[Barbe bleu 822]

3 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

What was the level of testing in Wales on October 29th?  You have to view these numbers in relation to tests to have a better picture of what they are saying. 

Fair point.  I dont have those figures but i am not aware that testing has been massively increased on the sustained basis that might otherwise explain the figures.   The article also confirmed that hospital figures were the highest since the start.

 

3 hours ago, sonyc said:

I felt at the time it was a good move (tough and therefore would be effective) and was established to influence the Xmas period. Yet, it appears either mis-timed  or  that there is no other really effective minimisation strategy than a locking down. Add to that people who do not follow social distancing. 

I did wonder if the timing was wrong but agree with you and VW that this is only a part of the equation.  The Welsh government is reimposing some measures now, perhaps though it sould gave been better to phase out of lockdown 2?

[sonyc 5,509]

20 minutes ago, ricardo said:

The ZOE App is now down 22% on the week and over 50% on the month👍

Expecting a levelling out though soon and then it will reach its lowest point just before Xmas and start escalating after. Need to get the vaccine programme going in earnest.

[ricardo 7,381]

1 minute ago, sonyc said:

Expecting a levelling out though soon and then it will reach its lowest point just before Xmas and start escalating after. Need to get the vaccine programme going in earnest.

I'm not expecting a call before the new year. Its a big logistical exercise and by the look of things there are several million in the over 80's plus front line workers group who are before me.

Just need to be careful and patient for a little longer.

[sonyc 5,509]

21 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Fair point.  I dont have those figures but i am not aware that testing has been massively increased on the sustained basis that might otherwise explain the figures.   The article also confirmed that hospital figures were the highest since the start.

 

I did wonder if the timing was wrong but agree with you and VW that this is only a part of the equation.  The Welsh government is reimposing some measures now, perhaps though it sould gave been better to phase out of lockdown 2?

Agree, they should have tiered it in a phased way.  Not sure though anything works except forms of locking down....not as a panacea because lockdowns  have other very negative outcomes but I mean purely speaking of controlling this particular virus and trying to ensure the health service has capacity in winter.

[sonyc 5,509]

Just now, ricardo said:

I'm not expecting a call before the new year. Its a big logistical exercise and by the look of things there are several million in the over 80's plus front line workers group who are before me.

Just need to be careful and patient for a little longer.

You may be lucky before Xmas. Mine maybe March. If so, I'm really going to try and get to CR. It will be 10 years to the 5th March since I last was able to go (and actually get tickets, which in between time have not been able to).

[ricardo 7,381]

2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

You may be lucky before Xmas. Mine maybe March. If so, I'm really going to try and get to CR. It will be 10 years to the 5th March since I last was able to go (and actually get tickets, which in between time have not been able to).

Thanks to the lock down I've missed more games this season than the total for the last 50 plus years..

[CANARYKING 637]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Thanks to the lock down I've missed more games this season than the total for the last 50 plus years..

Me too

[sonyc 5,509]

3 hours ago, ricardo said:

I'm not expecting a call before the new year. Its a big logistical exercise and by the look of things there are several million in the over 80's plus front line workers group who are before me.

Just need to be careful and patient for a little longer.

 

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

13 hours ago, ricardo said:

Thanks to the lock down I've missed more games this season than the total for the last 50 plus years..

Yes, I was particularly disappointed to miss the Stoke game and the Rotherham games recently, both are so easy for me to get to and I've been there regularly over the years.

 

Home games are not the same without a match report by @ricardo to read afterwards !!

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

A pretty sensible discussion here about "getting back to normal".  Is BTN an acronym people are using yet ? (probably someone will tell me they've been using it for months!).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-b6360f40-84f9-469b-b6a3-a4568e161c4f

2021 looks like it will be the year of "vaccine plus" i.e. we still need to social distance and wear face masks etc.  Hopefully with gradual improvement through the year in the UK.

So by Easter things should be looking better and restrictions gradually eased, but probably more like the autumn before we're feeling largely BTN.

 

Internationally the article says it will probably take 2 years to get fully back to normal. 

 

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

Just hoping for a long, hot summer with plenty of cold beer. 

[Van wink 2,994]

Looks like we are getting the app sorted for results, at long last

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Looks like we are getting the app sorted for results, at long last

Thanks VW - I think the App and (even more) the Test & Trace system are going to be vital in avoiding having too many restrictions through the next few months while the vaccine roll-out happens.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, It's Character Forming said:

Thanks VW - I think the App and (even more) the Test & Trace system are going to be vital in avoiding having too many restrictions through the next few months while the vaccine roll-out happens.

Yep, in my experience T and T is working better now, I'm sure somebody will be along with some examples to challenge that remark but I can only speak as I find from the coal face.

Edited December 8, 2020 by Van wink

[ricardo 7,381]

I see 81 year old William Shakespeare was the second person to get a jab.

"The taming of the Flu"

[Van wink 2,994]

8 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I see 81 year old William Shakespeare was the second person to get a jab.

"The taming of the Flu"

Measure for measure

[ricardo 7,381]

The usual Tuesday backdating.

Yesterdays European.

Italy         13720  - 528

France    3411 - 366

Spain      6255 - 132

Germany  15161 - 380

e.

[Herman 9,750]

For old times sake.😉😀

 

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

Office for National Statistics (ONS) data – which showed soaring coronavirus cases before the second lockdown – has been quietly revised down and now suggests that cases were largely plateauing at the time, it has emerged.

Infection survey data released by the ONS on October 30 shows the incidence of coronavirus in the community in England had more than doubled from 4.3 per 10,000 on October 2, to 9.52 by October 17. 

It was partly the reason that the Government decided to lockdown the country on November 5. 

However, the latest bulletin, released on December 4, shows that modelling estimates have been dramatically downgraded. 

The incidence rate for October 17 is now just 4.89, which is roughly where it remained for several days before it began to fall at the end of October, before lockdown measures were imposed. 

Dr Daniel Howdon, a health economist at the University of Leeds, also noticed that ONS has been consistently revising down past data with each weekly publication. 

While the survey on November 6 estimated there were 44,100 daily infections on October 17, that estimation has since dropped 26,600. 

“Really struggling to see how a period which for every single week previously was estimated to exhibit rising new infections suddenly turns flat based on data collected almost two months later,” Dr Howdon wrote on Twitter. 

“This also suggests cases were flat at the point where lockdown was announced and suddenly rose through lockdown to mid-November, when they dropped off.”

The original ONS data was used by the Government's chief scientific adviser Patrick Vallance, and chief medical officer Chris Whitty at the press conference on October 31 to justify a second lockdown.

The Government has already been criticised by the official statistics watchdog for the way it presented data to justify England's second lockdown.

A forecast made by Public Health England and Cambridge University said the country could soon be seeing more than 4,000 deaths a day. But the projections were out of date and vastly overestimated deaths.

The UK Statistics Authority said there needed to be more transparency about data and how predictions were being made.

It later emerged that the Government had redrawn its graphs so they no longer suggested that deaths could soon overtake those at the peak of the first wave.

Many experts have complained that the data presented by the Government ahead of the lockdown was “riddled with errors” and exaggerated the need for a second lockdown, while Greg Clark, the chairman of the Commons science and technology committee, said the belated admission of errors was “of great concern”.

 

Source: The Telegraph

[CANARYKING 637]

Deaths still mounting up, another 616 !

[ricardo 7,381]

 

[ricardo 7,381]

49 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

Deaths still mounting up, another 616 !

Most of which is backdating from up to 3 weeks ago.

Worst day still Nov 18th (484)

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

6 hours ago, ricardo said:

I see 81 year old William Shakespeare was the second person to get a jab.

"The taming of the Flu"

Much ado about nothing really.

Shakespeare didn't write them. He was too busy inventing fishing tackle.

[BroadstairsR 2,159]

Oh! I'm warming to Piers Morgan.

 

He's currently giving the grovelling Michael Gove the grilling of a lifetime on GMB. He seems to have more facts at his disposal that than the arch bullsh-ter as well.

Vaccine here, the end in sight (?) The inquest will now be under way.

[SteveN8458 64]

14 hours ago, ricardo said:

 

 

Interesting.

I am under the impression that the vaccine take approx 6 weeks from initial does to max protection, assuming that the individual has both jabs. So this would tie in with that.

[Rock The Boat 1,329]

I hope some of the Brexit doubters can now see some of the benefits of being out of the EU. 

First country in the world to roll out a vaccine to the envy of all those across the channel. This is an example of how a nimble Britain can win. While member states can only sit and wait for a slothful EU to get its act in gear and more Europeans die as a result. 

Three cheers for Brexit and freedom from EU tyranny.