Corona Virus main thread

[Bagster 101]

Simple one for you Herman

 

[Bagster 101]

 

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

9 minutes ago, sonyc said:

10/10 for u turns surely? 

Shows a degree of sensitivity.....responding to events of the day, they're listening you know😉

There was an insightful comment yesterday about Sunak's latest (welcome) support package.

It completely updates ( U turned) his previous one of only 3 weeks - which can only imply that surprise surprise the government in September having wilfully ignored Sage didn't think Covid would return with such a vengeance so quickly.

Wrong again. As ever totally behind the curve hence the T1, T2 and T3 fiascos.

They will simply never learn.

Edited October 23, 2020 by Yellow Fever
How many U turns is it now ? I've run out of fingers and toes.

[Bagster 101]

So there you go, 2020 seems to be a big year for the financial reset.

If you think that's David Icke , then crack on

[Well b back 3,207]

4 hours ago, Jools said:

👍

 

ONS figures. These extra non-covid deaths are just the start. How many of the top 10 deaths in Sept were due to lockdown restrictions(covid was the 19th). Lockdown enthusiasts in government have some explaining to do.

 

"A total of 39,827 people died in England in September, which was 2,568 more than usual for that month. In Wales there were 2,610 deaths - 135 more than average.

Coronavirus accounted for fewer than one in 50 of these, composing 1.7 per cent of deaths in England and 1.3 per cent in Wales".

I just went in to track this info down and you have conveniently forgotten to put an important piece of information that the majority of those 1 - 10 are lower than they were the year before. Why did you not put the relevant figures on for the 2 weeks 1/10 - 15/10 they tell a rather different story regards Covid. Despite the rapidly increasing death numbers related to Covid overall deaths are still low compared especially to last year.

Just wondered.

[sonyc 5,519]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

There was an insightful comment yesterday about Sunak's latest (welcome) support package.

It completely updates ( U turned) his previous one of only 3 weeks - which can only imply that surprise surprise the government in September having wilfully ignored Sage didn't think Covid would return with such a vengeance so quickly.

Wrong again. As ever totally behind the curve hence the T1, T2 and T3 fiascos.

They will simply never learn.

I was pleased with the change too. Yet, you start to think that it becomes rather cynical. Kind of like the situation where those that shout the loudest. Still, it does show the power of celebrity and perhaps social media (to a degree). This fella shows he is not going to give up. I completely admire that, because he doesn't have to, despite the feeling that there may be people behind him. His example even influenced me and the missus to set up an ongoing direct debit. Sometimes, you can't do anything and only moan. 

 

John Crace  (Twitter) has suggested Rashford would go 2-0 up soon 🙂

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

3 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I was pleased with the change too. Yet, you start to think that it becomes rather cynical. Kind of like the situation where those that shout the loudest. Still, it does show the power of celebrity and perhaps social media (to a degree). This fella shows he is not going to give up. I completely admire that, because he doesn't have to, despite the feeling that there may be people behind him. His example even influenced me and the missus to set up an ongoing direct debit. Sometimes, you can't do anything and only moan. 

 

John Crace  (Twitter) has suggested Rashford would go 2-0 up soon 🙂

Personally - Whatever the politics or doubts about some parents - it is not the childrens fault and in this 'emergency' it would of been an easy and empathic thing to do.

Instead they act like remote penny pinchers. Let them eat cake.

[Herman 9,765]

33 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I just went in to track this info down and you have conveniently forgotten to put an important piece of information that the majority of those 1 - 10 are lower than they were the year before. Why did you not put the relevant figures on for the 2 weeks 1/10 - 15/10 they tell a rather different story regards Covid. Despite the rapidly increasing death numbers related to Covid overall deaths are still low compared especially to last year.

Just wondered.

He tends to do that. Either half the facts or none of the facts. Be wary of him if you aren't already.

[Aggy 755]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

I just went in to track this info down and you have conveniently forgotten to put an important piece of information that the majority of those 1 - 10 are lower than they were the year before.

Why did you not put the relevant figures on for the 2 weeks 1/10 - 15/10 they tell a rather different story regards Covid. Despite the rapidly increasing death numbers related to Covid overall deaths are still low compared especially to last year.

Deleted bad maths!

Edited October 23, 2020 by Aggy

[Well b back 3,207]

21 minutes ago, Aggy said:

You’re right in that WBB (although if you’ve used the figures on the ONS site, it shows 2020 vs 5 year average rather than 2019).

If Jools had wanted to make a sensible point instead of just posting his usual type of thing, he’d have honed in on the difference between the 5 year average and 2020 flu and pneumonia deaths. 
 

5 year average flu and pneumonia deaths in September 34.7 per 100,000. This year, 25.1 per 100,000. A reduction in flu and pneumonia deaths this September of 9.6 per 100,000.
 

With a population of 66.6 million, that equates to 693 fewer deaths from flu and pneumonia. There were 690 deaths from covid.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/generator?uri=/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/bulletins/monthlymortalityanalysisenglandandwales/september2020/921024df&format=csv

Thanks Aggy.
I think actually that of course some of those differences are people in those other groups catching Covid and dieing from Covid. Don’t know but I suspect if you have terminal cancer and you catch Covid you die from Covid not the cancer, but I am only guessing as my point was not to say deaths through other things are not going to increase due to Covid but I suspect that is more likely to rise to high levels in a couple of years ie somebody won’t get a test but has cancer.

I don’t know about you but if China ( and I stress if ) can be believed, flu which should be ravaging them now is virtually non existent. Our figures for flu therefore seem pretty high

[Barbe bleu 826]

3 hours ago, sonyc said:

Hahaha...yes 3/10 would be my take, perhaps you could really work hard and persuade me to give 4/10. I chose 5/10 for Barbe because he often states he is neutral and I was flabbergasted to read he gave a 6 or a 7! (sorry Barbe Bleu)

Haha.  I said I was withholding judgement but I thought 6- 7 would be the upper limit

 If this goes on much longer lockdown will prove to have been a monumentally stupid act of self immolation. It gets sorted soon and its the greatest act of national defence since the battle of britain.   With that margin of error I think committing to any score is premature.

 

I'm not having a go at you sonyc as you do seem to be open minded but there is a trend here that people take extreme positions and assume that everyone that does not agree 100% with their view is diametrically opposed.  Read my post again and see if I gave a score of 7 or if prejudice had perhaps crept into the reading ...

 

 

 

 

Edited October 23, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Aggy 755]

11 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Thanks Aggy.
I think actually that of course some of those differences are people in those other groups catching Covid and dieing from Covid. Don’t know but I suspect if you have terminal cancer and you catch Covid you die from Covid not the cancer, but I am only guessing as my point was not to say deaths through other things are not going to increase due to Covid but I suspect that is more likely to rise to high levels in a couple of years ie somebody won’t get a test but has cancer.

I don’t know about you but if China ( and I stress if ) can be believed, flu which should be ravaging them now is virtually non existent. Our figures for flu therefore seem pretty high

I’m not sure my maths is right tbf. I think I’m a multiple of ten out!
 

Covid deaths in September amount to about 1 per 100k. Reduction in flu deaths 9 per 100k. So there’s been a much larger drop in flu deaths than there have been covid deaths (in September anyway).

 

Id Imagine some of the reduction in flu deaths is still catching up from the excess deaths in March/April - effectively covid killed in March some who would have died from flu this winter.

Edited October 23, 2020 by Aggy

[sonyc 5,519]

43 minutes ago, Herman said:

He tends to do that. Either half the facts or none of the facts. Be wary of him if you aren't already.

His guiding post is probably Trumpian in the kind of stats that get posted.

 

[Aggy 755]

18 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Thanks Aggy.
I think actually that of course some of those differences are people in those other groups catching Covid and dieing from Covid. Don’t know but I suspect if you have terminal cancer and you catch Covid you die from Covid not the cancer, but I am only guessing as my point was not to say deaths through other things are not going to increase due to Covid but I suspect that is more likely to rise to high levels in a couple of years ie somebody won’t get a test but has cancer.

I don’t know about you but if China ( and I stress if ) can be believed, flu which should be ravaging them now is virtually non existent. Our figures for flu therefore seem pretty high

And yes, I expect you’re right - the missed cancer screenings will likely cause cancer deaths to shoot up in the future rather than this year,

Which comes back to the point about avoiding overwhelming of hospitals now, but proportionately. The possible 200k deaths caused as a result of missed screenings will be spread out over years, so won’t overwhelm now. But if the measures we use to stop hospitals being overwhelmed will lead to significantly more deaths and health problems in the future, then is it worth it?

The video posted earlier had an interesting quote - there’s no evidence that covid has reduced the average lifespan. The worry is that the restrictions will do. If last year a 50 year old would have got a screening and had early treatment for cancer and recovered (or extended life significantly) but this year the screenings was missed and they don’t recover, that will reduce the average lifespan.

Then we’re in really murky ethical territory. Is it okay to save lives of people who, statistically on average, don’t have long to live anyway if you’re going to cut ten years off the life of someone else?

Edited October 23, 2020 by Aggy

[sonyc 5,519]

19 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Haha.  I said I was withholding judgement but I thought 7 would be the upper limit

 If this goes on much longer lockdown will prove to have been a monumentally stupid act of self immolation. It gets sorted soon and its the greatest act of national defence since the battle of britain.   With that margin of error I think committing to any score is premature

No problem. I accept my marks out of ten was slightly juvenile but at least I qualified it before I posted. Sometimes you can't see the woods for the trees so a simple score is useful. 

I'm hopeful at least that the rate of increase is slowing (reported on the radio news anyway). Such a lot of loss in all of this, lives,  health, opportunity, jobs, even liberties. Not sure if you saw the 80+ woman from Barnsley giving a vox pop comment the other night? She said she wasn't going to be fastened in and as for paying for all of this, it wasn't going to be her as she would be dead. Delivered straight and honest.

Edited October 23, 2020 by sonyc

[Van wink 2,994]

Social distancing etc will be be a very effective way of reducing infection levels and hence deaths from influenza this season.  

[Van wink 2,994]

11 hours ago, sonyc said:

I've asked the same question but strangely it's very quiet! I feel as if I've asked some kind of sensitive question...in which case my apologies!

Bill is ubiquitous 

[dj11 377]

10 hours ago, Bagster said:

So there you go, 2020 seems to be a big year for the financial reset.

If you think that's David Icke , then crack on

On, crack and David Icke in the same sentence, seems appropriate. 

[The Real Buh 3,432]

I wondered why not much has been said by central government about the Wales shutdown but now I get it. It’s because they want to show up how stupid another “cIrCUit BrEAKeR” lockdown is. Goddam the Welsh government are stupid. What an obvious cow pie to step in. Mark Drakeford is a horrendous human being, he’ll get his for this. His son is in prison for rape as well btw and on the **** offenders register for life. What a guy!

 

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

The most ridiculous and disproportionate response in human history continues to become even more ridiculous. The Welsh government are now deciding for people what’s essential and not essential for their lives

 

[horsefly 4,300]

19 hours ago, Bagster said:

First debate lockdown v no lockdown

Facts confirmed

If you are under 70 , the survival rate is 99.95%

Average lifespan in UK is 81

Average age of death from covid 19 is 82

 

About one-minute into this interview the retired prof. Lee is asked how one could prevent hospitals being overwhelmed by the exponential growth of the virus rendering them unable to cope. His answer was  somewhat tossed off but very revealing, "My argument is if your health service ... isn't up to providing the care that's needed you should increase capacity". But that is precisely why further lock-downs (of all varieties) are potentially needed. Simply, there isn't the remotest possibility that the health care capacity required to cope can be achieved in the short-term future (neither in Ireland nor the UK). It would require a massive input of new hospital building and new trained staff that would take years to achieve. And if you think that the swift building of Nightingale hospitals proved it can be done you should reflect on the fact that they were hardly used because there simply were not enough staff available to run them. Health chiefs soon realised that removing staff from Covid wards to staff Nightingale hospitals was of no material benefit. Even Boris Johnson understands this very fundamental problem. Only when you can rule out the very real possibility of covid victims being unable to get a bed in hospital due to lack of capacity, only then can you even begin to contemplate a future without the possibility of lock-downs. The only other alternative is to accept the deaths of hundreds of thousands of victims suffocating in their own beds.

[Teemu’s right foot 53]

Evidently a birthday card for your child that has been through an unprecedented amount of disruption this year is also deemed non essential. How are people so blinded by this that they are prepared to accept these restrictions on their lives. 
 

 

Edited October 24, 2020 by Teemu’s right foot

[Aggy 755]

49 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Social distancing etc will be be a very effective way of reducing infection levels and hence deaths from influenza this season.  

It raises an interesting point.

During the summer, flu and pneumonia killed more than covid. Lockdown clearly had an effect on bringing the covid infections and deaths down from their initial starting point. But why didn’t flu deaths drop down below covid deaths? influenza and covid spread in basically the same way, same places etc. There was some discussion of seasonality on here previously - did the summer weather or something similar suppress  covid more than it did influenza? Or is it attributable to not giving flu jabs in summer months (and that without the jabs influenza would kill more than covid)? 

Of course it also raises the question of how many hundreds of thousands of people would have been saved had we locked down in the 60, 70s etc when there were 60-80k flu deaths annually. 

[The Real Buh 3,432]

16 minutes ago, Teemu’s right foot said:

The most ridiculous and disproportionate response in human history continues to become even more ridiculous. The Welsh government are now deciding for people what’s essential and not essential for their lives

 

Even Sturgeon. Even STURGEON wasn’t stupid enough to do this. The Welsh Labour Party have been lead down the garden path big time here. Absolute balls up. The Labour Party have turned Wales into the 1984 socialist republic and the own goals are only just beginning there. Old Sir Kier has gone very quiet as well lol!
 

I mean, the tories are the party that have ballsed it up but they’ve been trying to not become too authoritarian. People remember that when they come to vote.

I mean, who votes for this swamp creature?

Edited October 24, 2020 by The Real Buh

[Herman 9,765]

You don't even live in Wales so stop whining you snowflake.

[The Real Buh 3,432]

2 minutes ago, Herman said:

You don't even live in Wales so stop whining you snowflake.

*The people’s socialist republic of wales

[Herman 9,765]

Versus the people's kakistocracy of England.

[The Real Buh 3,432]

Just now, Herman said:

Versus the people's kakistocracy of England.

It’s because I had a go at Kier isn’t it. I can see your fist shaking in rage right now. 
 

You are what the soviets called a “useful idiot” you can do whatever you like with a useful idiot. They are drunk on the cult of personality. You would March yourself to the gulag, no guards needed lol.
 

 

[Herman 9,765]

No, it's because you are a loudmouthed gob****e. You're happily cheering the worst, most incompetent government we have ever had and when someone tries doing it a different way you start whining like a little ***. Get your priorities right, get angry at the right people, the ones who are actually making the mess and we all might get through this in one piece.

Edited October 24, 2020 by Herman

[The Real Buh 3,432]

5 minutes ago, Herman said:

No, it's because you are a fat, loudmouthed gob****e. You're happily cheering the worst, most incompetent government we have ever had and when someone tries doing it a different way you start whining like a little ***. Get your priorities right, get angry at the right people, the ones who are actually making the mess and we all might get through this in one piece.

Fat!?