Corona Virus main thread

[sonyc 5,492]

An interesting read from the FT in case folk are interested in the devolution debate. Discussed here through the prism of Covid.

 

 

[ricardo 7,348]

Two thirds of France under 9pm curfew.

Over 40k positives today.

[horsefly 4,287]

3 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

My point was with NZ.  Some have handled this better than us, some worse.

as you know i have said from 100+ pages ago that Germany took this more seriously than us at every level and it shows.  They probably do have demographic advantages but the standard  track and trace has probably paid dividends.  S Korea put in what we would probably regard as obtrusive state surveillance.  Japan, i honestly don't know what they did that worked as well as it clearly did, maybe they had inbuilt immunity

Long way still to go though I fear so could be no point in 'keeping score' at that stage.

Apart from the USA and Brazil who has handled it worse? And you seem to have completely ignored my point about the lack of preparations by the UK government despite carrying out exercise Cygnus in 2016. They had very clear and very dire warnings about what would happen if a pandemic struck but chose to ignore those warnings and recommendations entirely. This has had massive economic and human costs. The litany of errors in subsequent months as they fought to catch up with the virus stand as testimony enough to the catastrophic failure of the government.

Quibbling over the issue of whether NZ represents a suitable comparison is really quite an irrelevance.

[Well b back 3,190]

3 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

 

I can see no reason why 'Tier 1' does not migrate to Tier 2 and then Tier 3.

As more of the 'south' enters Tier 3 alongside the NW and elsewhere - especially London then I think a full blown March style 'circuit break' will become inevitable simply to exit Tier 3  - and yes retail closed. Worst of all worlds. It will also sadly as before take much longer to reduce prevalence (fast rise, slooow fall).

Sadly Johnson's politically boxed himself in in ignoring Sage a month ago hence he will stubbornly stick to his regional approach until it is by default all but national anyway. Is it Nottinghamshire tonight for T3 ?

 

As to schools - as before in March with cases increasing it seems unlikely they will be able to make it through to Christmas without being forced to close by default with staff and pupils having to isolate.

 

Midlands have a politics show tonight and I know they all have their own agenda, but apparently they were pleading for a week in Nottingham to go to tier 2. They claim while the government made no decisions the virus took hold and they themselves were begging the people of Nottingham to act as though in tier. There were students from Nottingham University on that said although they were being blamed, it wasn’t them that put on the various stalls and pub parties for freshers week, which he added wasn’t a lot different to normal.

Whilst on the subject of students ( as I picked up earlier ) one side was congratulating themselves at how the virus has been dealt with, the other pointing out that the reason Coventry and Nottingham now have a community problem because of it spreading from the unis. You can work out for yourselves which side said what.

[Well b back 3,190]

Does this make the Wales circuit break even more stringent than the original national lockdown ?

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-politics-54648194

[Barbe bleu 816]

9 hours ago, horsefly said:

Apart from the USA and Brazil who has handled it worse? And you seem to have completely ignored my point about the lack of preparations by the UK government despite carrying out exercise Cygnus in 2016. They had very clear and very dire warnings about what would happen if a pandemic struck but chose to ignore those warnings and recommendations entirely. This has had massive economic and human costs. The litany of errors in subsequent months as they fought to catch up with the virus stand as testimony enough to the catastrophic failure of the government.

Quibbling over the issue of whether NZ represents a suitable comparison is really quite an irrelevance.

 I made a quick point about NZ that was all, you decided to extend the point, not me!

We talked a lot about Cygnus  at the start and I felt no need to reply to that bit of your post, as is my right.

Who handled it worse than us?  There is no other us so comparisons are hard but if we are trying to understand this we probably want to examine why pretty much anywhere in South America is returning much worse results that pretty much anywhere in South East Asia. Picking this country or that country to illustrate a pre-conceived position is helpful only   if the comparison is close enough 

[Van wink 2,994]

9 hours ago, Well b back said:

Whilst on the subject of students ( as I picked up earlier ) one side was congratulating themselves at how the virus has been dealt with, the other pointing out that the reason Coventry and Nottingham now have a community problem because of it spreading from the unis. You can work out for yourselves which side said what.

I saw a graph the other day showing how infection rates in Uni Cities and towns have grown rapidly compared to other similar non Uni locations. Nothing new there but it was also showing the rates of infection in those locations flattening or even dropping back so maybe a glimmer of light in the darkness. Behaviourally I guess if you live in a City where numbers are being driven up you are going to take your own and hence others safely more seriously.

 

Edited October 23, 2020 by Van wink

[Van wink 2,994]

15 hours ago, ricardo said:

Interesting Info from the North

Some areas have higher ICU covid occupancy than they had in the first wave, and yet are trying to maintain some form of elective work. Impossible situation which will break the staff and potentially put patient safely at risk unless something changes.

Edited October 23, 2020 by Van wink

[Yellow Fever 3,749]

30 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Some areas have higher ICU covid occupancy than they had in the first wave, and yet are trying to maintain some form of elective work. Impossible situation which will break the stafd and put patient safely at risk unless something changes 

 

Yes - We already see as in Nottingham University Hospital starting to cancel elective surgery (and even some cancer treatments  as I heard reported yesterday). NHS already getting overwhelmed in places with all the problems it brings (even without a sharp lockdown) and it's only just started (again).

Just updated "Surgery for cancer and urgent and emergency cases will not be affected"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/22/nottingham-braced-tier-3-coronavirus-measures-england

Edited October 23, 2020 by Yellow Fever

[horsefly 4,287]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

 I made a quick point about NZ that was all, you decided to extend the point, not me!

We talked a lot about Cygnus  at the start and I felt no need to reply to that bit of your post, as is my right.

Who handled it worse than us?  There is no other us so comparisons are hard but if we are trying to understand this we probably want to examine why pretty much anywhere in South America is returning much worse results that pretty much anywhere in South East Asia. Picking this country or that country to illustrate a pre-conceived position is helpful only   if the comparison is close enough 

Your entire response to me was the following:

"We are hugely different from NZ and I think we must be careful with our comparisons. If I was going for a comparison I would probably say New York state or France were the closest

True a lot of the NZ population is in greater Auckland or Wellington but that's about the only negative for them.  

If you can convince me that they also have dense inner cities,   a culture of high house occupancy in most cities and the community infrasteucture associated with that, crammed public transport, cities that are very closely  linked,  massive  international transport hubs and a history of cross border travel I'll probably agree with you though."

It was your only point, not just a quick point. And your claim that, "There is no other us so comparisons are hard" is frankly somewhat bewildering, especially as you then go on to say that we should be comparing the results in South American countries with those in South East Asia.

Further, the idea that the cities of Berlin, Seoul, and Tokyo are not significantly comparable to our major cities (e.g. London, Liverpool, Birmingham) strikes me as bizarre. There are quite clearly very important lessons to learn from comparing how these different countries and cities have dealt with the virus, but by your criteria none of them are comparable. I think you will find health scientists disagree with you on this point.

 

 

[Well b back 3,190]

54 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I saw a graph the other day showing how infection rates in Uni Cities and towns have grown rapidly compared to other similar non Uni locations. Nothing new there but it was also showing the rates of infection in those locations flattening or even dropping back so maybe a glimmer of light in the darkness. Behaviourally I guess if you live in a City where numbers are being driven up you are going to take your own and hence others safely more seriously.

 

Only time will tell. There are 2 thoughts, one is of course that it is now under control. The other is those unis spread it out into the community and come next week you will see the numbers going back up only this time into older groups. I have a feeling the ONS figures today are going to be horrendous, like to hope I am wrong, but some of the body language in that presser yesterday was more of omg.

[sonyc 5,492]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Yes - We already see as in Nottingham University Hospital starting to cancel elective surgery (and even some cancer treatments  as I heard reported yesterday). NHS already getting overwhelmed in places with all the problems it brings (even without a sharp lockdown) and it's only just started (again).

Just updated "Surgery for cancer and urgent and emergency cases will not be affected"

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/oct/22/nottingham-braced-tier-3-coronavirus-measures-england

A current update here on the NHS. Numbers are high and pressures are building. 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-nhs-hospitals-second-wave-patients-intensive-case-b1231906.html

I think the sheer pressure will affect staff's morale more this time. Many wanted to leave after the first wave. It's a very natural reaction, especially after so many years of under funding. I recall thanking a nurse just before my mother died a year ago and she burst into tears. She realised she wasn't able to offer the quantity or quality of care she wanted to because they were so short staffed. This was before the pandemic.

Edited October 23, 2020 by sonyc

[Van wink 2,994]

29 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Only time will tell. There are 2 thoughts, one is of course that it is now under control. The other is those unis spread it out into the community and come next week you will see the numbers going back up only this time into older groups. I have a feeling the ONS figures today are going to be horrendous, like to hope I am wrong, but some of the body language in that presser yesterday was more of omg.

Fully concur with the latter point, and as said previously we may well see the situation of reducing infection numbers coinciding with increasing hospital admissions. Another example of why the daily announced figures reveal a very limited and narrow picture of the epidemic in the UK

[sonyc 5,492]

The numbers appear to conceal lots of things. As asked before, what do you believe? Media stories often exaggerate human stories so do statistics underplay reality?

[sonyc 5,492]

22 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Fully concur with the latter point, and as said previously we may well see the situation of reducing infection numbers coinciding with increasing hospital admissions. Another example of why the daily announced figures reveal a very limited and narrow picture of the epidemic in the UK

Interesting to see (ghoulish though to write). Van Tam etc have all alluded to worry about the over 60s. 

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

Prepare for no Christmas, celebrate the winter solstice as we used to do. Lets forget about this annual waste of good resources on plastic toys, gluttony, and a fake creation that is a mere consumerist dream for retailers online.

Why not make a present using your abilities, make a Ring of willow and decorate it with ivy and other green growth, stick a few red berried hollies in it and you don't have a need for a tree. Use your house and lights to visualize and project your thoughts to those who drive past. Three years ago It was a large heart, last year it was a massive XR symbol and this year....who knows what will be guarding our leafless Wisteria.

here are a few ideas to behold on the 12 days of Yule, the celebrations of the sun coming back and the most holiest the 31st.Dec. when the new year dawns. most important is taking care of each other and enjoying a good meal together, preparing oneself for a new year to come.....http://www.goheathen.org/wordpress/?p=14

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

A current update here on the NHS. Numbers are high and pressures are building. 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/health/coronavirus-nhs-hospitals-second-wave-patients-intensive-case-b1231906.html

I think the sheer pressure will affect staff's morale more this time. Many wanted to leave after the first wave. It's a very natural reaction, especially after so many years of under funding. I recall thanking a nurse just before my mother died a year ago and she burst into tears. She realised she wasn't able to offer the quantity or quality of care she wanted to because they were so short staffed. This was before the pandemic.

I think you are 100% correct - I am often struck though (both before and during the pandemic) by how nurses seem to cope with the intense pressure whilst working incredibly (and ridiculously) long hours - my daughter regularly works 2-3 hours of unpaid overtime after her twelve and a half hour shift on a Covid ward officially ends because the next shift coming on is so short-handed, as do many of her colleagues,.

I get very angry about this, not just because it is unfair but because it is downright dangerous for both her and her patients. But she and her colleagues seem to cope with the pressures and the hours but what gets them really upset is that no matter how hard they work there are many times when the lack of resources mean that their patients are not getting the quality of care that they could and should get - that is incredibly demoralising and I suspect the one of the main reasons why there is such an exodus of doctors and nurses from the NHS.

[sonyc 5,492]

Spot on.

...And I might add it's stories straight from personal experience like yours that I trust the most. 

[Barbe bleu 816]

2 hours ago, horsefly said:

Your entire response to me was the following:

"We are hugely different from NZ and I think we must be careful with our comparisons. If I was going for a comparison I would probably say New York state or France were the closest

True a lot of the NZ population is in greater Auckland or Wellington but that's about the only negative for them.  

If you can convince me that they also have dense inner cities,   a culture of high house occupancy in most cities and the community infrasteucture associated with that, crammed public transport, cities that are very closely  linked,  massive  international transport hubs and a history of cross border travel I'll probably agree with you though."

It was your only point, not just a quick point. And your claim that, "There is no other us so comparisons are hard" is frankly somewhat bewildering, especially as you then go on to say that we should be comparing the results in South American countries with those in South East Asia.

Further, the idea that the cities of Berlin, Seoul, and Tokyo are not significantly comparable to our major cities (e.g. London, Liverpool, Birmingham) strikes me as bizarre. There are quite clearly very important lessons to learn from comparing how these different countries and cities have dealt with the virus, but by your criteria none of them are comparable. I think you will find health scientists disagree with you on this point.

 

 

I'm not getting into another fight with you. You have your opinion, i have mine.

I will clarify some points though.

I said comparisons are hard as we are unique, not that they were completely worthless. If we are to use them though we must be clear of their limitations

Do you not find it interesting that the entire continent of South America has suffered badly but there is little evidence of a problem in almost all of east and south east asia?

[Barbe bleu 816]

19 hours ago, ricardo said:

Is this true do you think? makes a mockery of the analysis if it is.

 

The caption has always been number of positive tests. I dont ever recall seeing a qualifier that only new people are counted.

[sonyc 5,492]

16 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm not getting into another fight with you. You have your opinion, i have mine.

I will clarify some points though.

I said comparisons are hard as we are unique, not that they were completely worthless. If we are to use them though we must be clear of their limitations

Do you not find it interesting that the entire continent of South America has suffered badly but there is little evidence of a problem in almost all of east and south east asia?

I want to put my own view here which I believe supports both viewpoints (parts of). The country of NZ is of course different in its demography and population distribution. It is very small. But, Ardern has also been communicative, consistent, proactive and humble (read that to mean empathic) throughout the pandemic. That approach, or style, if you prefer, has engendered public trust and confidence. It hasn't been marked by spin, lies, public contracts given to non health experts and sheer incompetence through challenge and counter challenge followed by u turns. That is why their economy and health approaches are more in sync with each other (in my opinion) and it helps with public behaviour. Longer term they may well be more nimble in their economic recovery. Which kind of administration would you prefer? We all know the UK is more complex. Yet what we really need is simple good governance in such a global crisis. In this realm NZ gets 8 or 9 out of 10 surely (to reduce this to a tabloid level for simplicity for a moment). What mark out of 10 do we give this government, despite all our different political persuasions? I would wager it's difficult to give more than 5 out of 10 even from your more neutral viewpoint BB?

Edited October 23, 2020 by sonyc

[horsefly 4,287]

29 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

I'm not getting into another fight with you. You have your opinion, i have mine.

I will clarify some points though.

I said comparisons are hard as we are unique, not that they were completely worthless. If we are to use them though we must be clear of their limitations

Do you not find it interesting that the entire continent of South America has suffered badly but there is little evidence of a problem in almost all of east and south east asia?

I'll clarify my points too:

1. We are hardly unique re the virus or the nature of our country.

2. Comparisons with many countries are helpful as any health researcher will tell you.

3. If you are prepared to compare South America with South East Asia then it is inexplicable why you are so reticent to compare other parts of the world.

Edited October 23, 2020 by horsefly
missing word

[Bagster 101]

First debate lockdown v no lockdown

Facts confirmed

If you are under 70 , the survival rate is 99.95%

Average lifespan in UK is 81

Average age of death from covid 19 is 82

 

[Rock The Boat 1,326]

34 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I want to put my own view here which I believe supports both viewpoints (parts of). The country of NZ is of course different in its demography and population distribution. It is very small. But, Ardern has also been communicative, consistent, proactive and humble (read that to mean empathic) throughout the pandemic. That approach, or style, if you prefer, has engendered public trust and confidence. It hasn't been marked by spin, lies, public contracts given to non health experts and sheer incompetence through challenge and counter challenge followed by u turns. That is why their economy and health approaches are more in sync with each other (in my opinion) and it helps with public behaviour. Longer term they may well be more nimble in their economic recovery. Which kind of administration would you prefer? We all know the UK is more complex. Yet what we really need is simple good governance in such a global crisis. In this realm NZ gets 8 or 9 out of 10 surely (to reduce this to a tabloid level for simplicity for a moment). What mark out of 10 do we give this government, despite all our different political persuasions? I would wager it's difficult to give more than 5 out of 10 even from your more neutral viewpoint BB?

What's your take on southeast Asia?

[sonyc 5,492]

4 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

What's your take on southeast Asia?

I'm less informed but arguably South Korea has performed well. They seem to have a solid record in contact tracing, good communications and appeared to be quite dynamic in responses to outbreaks from what I've read (twice daily communication).  As you've posted before though their society works on a greater level of compliance, on needing to give up some liberties (what data is collected etc). They have previous experience too in pandemic control. So better preparedness. I'm admiring of how they've handled this particular pandemic looking at their numbers....but whether I would trade my UK life for it, the answer is a 'no'. Yet, I want to do what is required of me in this country and be responsible. New Zealand is culturally more similar to the UK and hence my thoughts given on style of leadership / governance. 

[sonyc 5,492]

20 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

What's your take on southeast Asia?

Found this from a LSE blog. It casts a different light (asking whether there is good governance too)

Southeast Asia's pandemic politics and human rights: trends and lessons | LSE Southeast Asia Blog

https://blogs.lse.ac.uk/seac/2020/10/01/southeast-asias-pandemic-politics-and-human-rights-trends-and-lessons/

 

[ricardo 7,348]

340k  tests (a massive increase lately)

20530- 224           7days ago 15650       14 days ago  13864

 

Inpatients  7706    up by 283 since yesterday

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Yesterdays European.  all increasing

Italy   16079 - 136

France 41622 - 162      a record number

Spain  20986 - 155

Germany  10457 - 44

[ricardo 7,348]

To much common sense, I'm afraid.

 

[Barbe bleu 816]

4 hours ago, sonyc said:

What mark out of 10 do we give this government, despite all our different political persuasions? I would wager it's difficult to give more than 5 out of 10 even from your more neutral viewpoint BB?

A good question.  I guess though that my cop out is that I will give a score when 40 million people  are immune!

I think I will struggle to see that the moving patients out of hospitals into care homes was ever a good idea. 

 Track and trace - i was of the opinion that it not being done seriously at the start was the main  cause of our problems but I'm increasingly open to the idea that by the time we really knew we had it it was already well embedded.

This contracts thing is interesting.  The campaign has the wrong backers i fear but in different hands it could be a real public concern (though unconnected with  public health per se )

On that basis I could not see it going above 6 or 7 out of 10 in any circumstance 

Edited October 23, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[ricardo 7,348]