Corona Virus main thread

[CANARYKING 646]

Blimey another 500

[paul moy 235]

7 hours ago, ricardo said:

Had a letter from DHSC this morning re the Tier rules. Included in the advice was a section advising the taking of vitamin D and an offer for exremely vulnerable people to register for a free 4 month supply.

I posted a BMA article about this back in April, seems they have finally taken action.👍

I've been taking daily Vitamin D for a while as it is well known to be beneficial to the immune system.  My view back in April was that as soon as it was publicised that BAME people were more susceptible to covid that it could be a deficiency not least because of their darker skin colour  and the rather less sunny weather in UK which inhibits their take-up.

[paul moy 235]

3 hours ago, Van wink said:

100 tabs at Sainsbury were around £4 KG

I bought three packs of 96 for price of two at Tesco, so 10 quid for  288.  So 4p each for you and 3.47p for me.

[Van wink 2,994]

Nice

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

4 hours ago, Van wink said:

100 tabs at Sainsbury were around £4 KG

Thanks VW. Good job I've got a bus pass. Our nearest Sainsbury's is in Truro. 

[paul moy 235]

11 hours ago, Badger said:

I'd agree with much of that, but I'm not sure that there is "mounting evidence against" the lockdown - it is still very much a fringe opinion and often seems to be politically motivated, like the Smalley video that you posted.

Lockdown works purely because it reduces the number of potential contacts that would occur under other conditions and consequently reduces the demand on the NHS.  Too many ignore rules when outside of lockdown for any other solution to work, sadly.  It is inevitable that we will get a massive spike after the Christmas easing and another firmer lockdown in January, especially as the tests that they are giving students are shockingly only 50% effective, according to the news today. 

[paul moy 235]

9 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

I'm showing you that deaths where pneumonia is on the death certificate is actually higher than deaths where covid is on the death certificate. It doesn't mean that covid deaths are not serious but that we should treat them in context of the total situation. It raises several questions when you see things in context. At the beginning of covid we had no data to help us make decisions, only guesswork. Now we have a ton of data which should be leading us to make better decisions. If you don't want to view the data and prefer to view the situation through the lens of what we knew in February, then that's up to you. I prefer to bring empirical data to the table rather than relying on dodgy Sage models. 

Pneumonia is a symptom of covid but I assume from that that many other deaths are non-covid pneumonia. It will be interesting to see the five-year average death rate graph for this winter after this. Thankfully we will soon see the vulnerable vaccinated.

[paul moy 235]

21 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

Number of death occurrences where Influenza, Pneumonia or COVID-19 were mentioned on the death certificate by sex, January to August 2020, England and Wales1,2,3,4,5,6,7
	England and Wales1			England2,3			Wales2,3
	Influenza	Pneumonia	COVID-19	Influenza	Pneumonia	COVID-19	Influenza	Pneumonia	COVID-19
Persons	506	69,781	52,327	477	65,532	49,686	27	4,171	2,566
Males	235	37,500	28,794	225	35,313	27,370	8	2,137	1,376
Females	271	32,281	23,533	252	30,219	22,316	19	2,034	1,190
Source: Office for National Statistics
Notes:
1.      Figures include deaths of non-residents.
2.      Figures exclude deaths of non-residents.
3.      Figures are based on boundaries as of May 2020.
4.      Based on date a death occurred, registered up to 5 September 2020.
5.      Figures for 2020 are based on provisional mortality data.
6.      The International Classification of Diseases, tenth edition (ICD-10) definitions are as follows: coronavirus (COVID-19) (U07.1 and U07.2), influenza (J09-J11) or pneumonia (J12-J18).
7.      Includes deaths where Influenza, Pneumonia or COVID-19 were mentioned anywhere on the death certificate including as the underlying cause.

So figures include and exclude deaths of non-residents.   🤣🙃   confused ?

[CANARYKING 646]

Why has the typeface for this page changed to small letters or is it only me a.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,205]

"I´m dreaming of a shíte Christmas........."

 

[Badger 2,421]

23 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

I'm showing you that deaths where pneumonia is on the death certificate is actually higher than deaths where covid is on the death certificate.

🤦‍♂️Pneumonia is an inflammation of the lungs caused by infection - viral or bacterial. The vast majority of the pneumonia cases referenced here would have been caused by Covid! Wherever do you get this nonsense?

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

A death in Cornwall this week but the number of new cases dropping to around 20 per 100k.

Mind the strong wind at the moment means 2 kilometres social distancing.

[Herman 9,900]

Nice to get my dad out for saturday lunch for the first time in months.👍

[ricardo 7,458]

Yesterdays European.

Italy         24099 - 814 

France    11221 - 397

Spain   5554 - 214

Germany  23541 - 431 

[Van wink 2,994]

Dropping rapidly in Broadland now

[ricardo 7,458]

Yesterdays European.

Italy         21052 - 662

France    12923 - 214

Spain  

Germany  17812 - 284

[Mark .Y. 352]

Those caes still seem a bit high to me, I know the Zoe guy says they are dropping rapidly but I had hoped these numbers would be down a fair bit more by now

[ricardo 7,458]

38 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Those caes still seem a bit high to me, I know the Zoe guy says they are dropping rapidly but I had hoped these numbers would be down a fair bit more by now

Nearly 400k tests.

[Mark .Y. 352]

9 hours ago, ricardo said:

Nearly 400k tests.

Yeh, I did notice the high level of testing Ricardo, guess I just hoped to see cases down more than they actually are. 

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

Yeh, I did notice the high level of testing Ricardo, guess I just hoped to see cases down more than they actually are. 

I fear we will be seeing a reverse, in the numbers, certainly after Christmas. Let’s hope people behave themselves.

[Herman 9,900]

It's not going to happen is it Winky? 

[Van wink 2,994]

7 minutes ago, Herman said:

It's not going to happen is it Winky? 

 About as likely as a trade deal

[sonyc 5,542]

Looking at those Xmas shopper photos and masses outside Primark etc they look like super spreaders events.  Not convinced of a fall at all. I believe there might even be a further lockdown. So much depends on vaccinations. 

[Creative Midfielder 2,011]

20 minutes ago, Van wink said:

 About as likely as a trade deal

Excellent analogy, with Brexit we have two very bad (though not equally bad) possible outcomes - an extremely poor deal or no deal at all.

So with the virus, if we are lucky then the large majority will be sensible and only a small minority will take risks but it looks far more likely than the proportions will be fairly even or even that the 'sensibles\cautious' will be in a minority.

But either way whether they call it lockdown or Tier 3 we are looking at some really significant restrictions again post Christmas.

[sonyc 5,542]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/07/densely-packed-bame-communities-in-england-bear-brunt-of-covid-19?

At last a deeper study into inequality showing how Covid spreads in densely populated streets  (rather than the nonsense put on this thread by a poster back in summer about ethnicity being the main issue rather than considering the wider factors). BAME rates of infection vary by localised geography not by racial origin per se. Bradford for example, is a large metropolitan borough but is made up of perhaps 4 or 5 kinds of Bradford. Norfolk is blessed with much lower housing densities and higher income cohorts.

[Barbe bleu 840]

1 hour ago, sonyc said:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/dec/07/densely-packed-bame-communities-in-england-bear-brunt-of-covid-19?

At last a deeper study into inequality showing how Covid spreads in densely populated streets  (rather than the nonsense put on this thread by a poster back in summer about ethnicity being the main issue rather than considering the wider factors). BAME rates of infection vary by localised geography not by racial origin per se. Bradford for example, is a large metropolitan borough but is made up of perhaps 4 or 5 kinds of Bradford. Norfolk is blessed with much lower housing densities and higher income cohorts.

I cant disagree with your take on this at all. But.....isn’t it kind of obvious though that dense populations allow for easier spread?  Was this ever really seriously disputed?

[Barbe bleu 840]

4 hours ago, Creative Midfielder said:

 

But either way whether they call it lockdown or Tier 3 we are looking at some really significant restrictions again post Christmas.

Yup,  although we are more resilient than we were and some populations undoubedly have good levels of immunity there is still much for the virus to burn through.  On going restrictions are probably inevitable.

We can see this in Wales.   Already the virus has made up all ground lost during their lockdown and they will have a real challenge over  the festive period, not a great time to have rising levels. Same applies, albeit to  a lesser extent to the rest of the UK

[Van wink 2,994]

26 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Yup,  although we are more resilient than we were and some populations undoubedly have good levels of immunity there is still much for the virus to burn through.  On going restrictions are probably inevitable.

We can see this in Wales.   Already the virus has made up all ground lost during their lockdown and they will have a real challenge over  the festive period, not a great time to have rising levels. Same applies, albeit to  a lesser extent to the rest of the UK

Welsh Government really has messed this up, a tough lockdown which I agreed with but then they just seemed to let things rip again. Total chaos, what on earth was the point of that.

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

1 hour ago, Barbe bleu said:

Yup,  although we are more resilient than we were and some populations undoubedly have good levels of immunity there is still much for the virus to burn through.  On going restrictions are probably inevitable.

We can see this in Wales.   Already the virus has made up all ground lost during their lockdown and they will have a real challenge over  the festive period, not a great time to have rising levels. Same applies, albeit to  a lesser extent to the rest of the UK

What was the level of testing in Wales on October 29th?  You have to view these numbers in relation to tests to have a better picture of what they are saying. 

[sonyc 5,542]

2 hours ago, Barbe bleu said:

I cant disagree with your take on this at all. But.....isn’t it kind of obvious though that dense populations allow for easier spread?  Was this ever really seriously disputed?

Yes it was. I disputed it as I didn't like the intimation. I won't go back to reference it (a very prominent Brexit favouring poster).