Hands up those who are not going Saturday

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 3,820]

4 minutes ago, Hardhouse44 said:

Its not as black and white as you and the graphs make out. The Government have to make sure that if life is put on hold and all nonessential businesses are closed that we all have lives to go back to! They have to way up what could be described as the collateral damage (lose of life) with the financial impact which could have an even greater effect on life if handled badly. This is a war against an enemy you cant seen and as such hard decisions will have to be made for the greater good and the long term future.

 

Doubt many people will like that but heyho thats life.

What you're saying there is true, in the sense that the economies of all countries on lockdown will take a massive hit.

So it comes down to who the government wants to kill off: the elderly or the poor. Not a nice decision to make.

[sonyc 5,519]

8 minutes ago, Hardhouse44 said:

Its not as black and white as you and the graphs make out. The Government have to make sure that if life is put on hold and all nonessential businesses are closed that we all have lives to go back to! They have to way up what could be described as the collateral damage (lose of life) with the financial impact which could have an even greater effect on life if handled badly. This is a war against an enemy you cant seen and as such hard decisions will have to be made for the greater good and the long term future.

 

Doubt many people will like that but heyho thats life.

I think that's a fair summary Hardhouse. This is no precedent in our lifetime. Your commentary also indicates just what kinds of communication the government needs to have with its citizens.

There is so much to say. It might involve some of us volunteering (to deliver foods etc) or looking out for people who are isolated etc etc

Edited March 12, 2020 by sonyc

[Hardhouse44 261]

2 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I think that's a fair summary Hardhouse. This is no precedent in our lifetime. Your commentary also indicates just what kinds of communication the government needs to have with its citizens.

There is so much to say. It might involve some of us volunteering (to deliver foods etc) or looking out for people who are isolated etc etc

I agree wholeheartedly with that. We all have a responsibility to help those who will be worst hit by this. It is almost that Dunkirk spirt required again.

However we have also got a responsibility to keep everything in proportion and realative. The death rate whilst worrying will be low and whether we like it or not selective in the main to the elderly and thoses with underlying health issues. What we cant do is just stop Everything without clear plans, objectives, recovery processes in place and most of all without knowing what the long term impact on the fabric of our society will be. If a full shut down works for say a month then fabulously but what if it doesn't. You simply cant just keep it going any longer without cripplingly the economy and posssibly you risk that any way.

 My guess is italy will be monitored very closely over the next 7 to 10 days. If the approach works well then we may well risk it and follow suit. If however results are not so good. We may just suck it up and see. i.e. let it run its course taking as much precaution as we can without major disruption. Collateral damages will then become something we just all have to accept 

[ricardo 7,395]

We already have China as an example and it appears to be working if the numbers can be believed.

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

4 minutes ago, Hardhouse44 said:

Collateral damages

While i agree with much of what you've written Houseo, your use of the phrase 'Collateral Damage' to describe Human deaths is venturing into pro gov propaganda territory. Its an expression used to hide the true context of events.( 1 terrorist killed in raid, local collateral damage 15, meaning 15 maybe totally innocent people killed to achieve the objective)

 I fear that the  Bumbling Blond Boy will be using such expressions to sugar up the truth. There is a shoitestorm coming and the sooner he faces that fact, the better for everyone in Uk.

This is not an attack on you, just the phrase. 

The Young and Healthy, that for the most part will get through this, must find the gumption to volunteer to help out in any way they can. Social media can help co ordinate things but there's no substitute for real people doing real things when real shoite needs doing.

 

[Hardhouse44 261]

26 minutes ago, ricardo said:

We already have China as an example and it appears to be working if the numbers can be believed.

Im afraid you are forgetting the vast difference in the eastern and western life styles, styles of governance, reations of peoples and willingness to conform. 

What works there many not here. I would also always take with a pinch of salt anything that comes out of china as there reporting will alway be pro government.

[dylanisabaddog 4,921]

1 minute ago, Hardhouse44 said:

Im afraid you are forgetting the vast difference in the eastern and western life styles, styles of governance, reations of peoples and willingness to conform. 

What works there many not here. I would also always take with a pinch of salt anything that comes out of china as there reporting will alway be pro government.

China put a ring round 10m people and probably shot them if they tried to escape. The good people of North Norfolk would probably appreciate a similar approach to London 

[BobLoz3 492]

1 hour ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

What you're saying there is true, in the sense that the economies of all countries on lockdown will take a massive hit.

So it comes down to who the government wants to kill off: the elderly or the poor. Not a nice decision to make.

Probably both with the current government we have in charge.

Sad, but true.

[Taiwan Canary 144]

40 minutes ago, ricardo said:

We already have China as an example and it appears to be working if the numbers can be believed.

China has been no where near as successful as the government in Taiwan. For those geeky enough, you can read about it here:

https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762689?fbclid=IwAR104-FN9mMFdaH1xTP0JqAymeaFL4vXBAkZe0heEfS-XoBmWDjTCHCZ4zw

The U.K. government has already missed the boat I'm afraid....

Good luck to all those back in Blighty. Keep washing your hands, use masks when going out (read up on how to use them properly), and only make essential trips. 

Life goes on here in Taiwan (for now).

P.s. We have never and will never be part of China!

[dylanisabaddog 4,921]

As said in a different thread, Leicester have three players who possibly have the virus. I'm sure you all remember they played Villa on Monday night. 

Seems to me that we should just be sticking to essentials now. 

[sgncfc 1,228]

It's easy to have a go at the government, but we've always done OK in the past on major issues and that's because we are guided by experts - in this case, they are being very, very, very closely advised by the CMO and GCHQ security personnel (No, I can't reveal my sources). There is a school of thought that it will be better in the long term to allow this virus to pass right through our population in a managed fashion i.e. we all get it at some point and thereby build up future immunity.

The Asian response has not done that - we don't yet know if they will all get secondary epidemics in a few weeks, which is what happened in 1919 with Spanish flu; the people who didn't get it first time round got it the second time, because everyone thought it had finished.

If we think that approach is the one to go for (as advised by medical and security experts who know what they are doing) then closing schools and playing football behind closed doors is not the way forward. Allowing those sectors of the population to be exposed is probably sensible because the vast majority of attendees are not in the demographic for which this this infection is fatal, and the level of care they will need from the NHS will not be as demanding on resources.

Having said all of that, the virus is moving among us much, much faster than originally forecast and is taking away some of our options as it does that. We will potentially come to a point where the public demand for closing down the country is too big to ignore - but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the right thing to do.

 

[sonyc 5,519]

2 minutes ago, sgncfc said:

It's easy to have a go at the government, but we've always done OK in the past on major issues and that's because we are guided by experts - in this case, they are being very, very, very closely advised by the CMO and GCHQ security personnel (No, I can't reveal my sources). There is a school of thought that it will be better in the long term to allow this virus to pass right through our population in a managed fashion i.e. we all get it at some point and thereby build up future immunity.

The Asian response has not done that - we don't yet know if they will all get secondary epidemics in a few weeks, which is what happened in 1919 with Spanish flu; the people who didn't get it first time round got it the second time, because everyone thought it had finished.

If we think that approach is the one to go for (as advised by medical and security experts who know what they are doing) then closing schools and playing football behind closed doors is not the way forward. Allowing those sectors of the population to be exposed is probably sensible because the vast majority of attendees are not in the demographic for which this this infection is fatal, and the level of care they will need from the NHS will not be as demanding on resources.

Having said all of that, the virus is moving among us much, much faster than originally forecast and is taking away some of our options as it does that. We will potentially come to a point where the public demand for closing down the country is too big to ignore - but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the right thing to do.

 

I understand this line of thought sgnfc and the point about building immunity (though I realise you are intentionally being cold / objective in the way you've described your point). Yet, I must ask have you modelled the numbers at the current rate (doubling every 2 days / 2.5 days). Just model those on a piece of paper and see how many days it takes to reach 100,000 or even a million. Should we really just allow exposure and risk 15% needing professional medical help (NHS)? Isn't this quite unprecedented in the last 100 years? 

[Mello Yello 2,293]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

We already have China as an example and it appears to be working if the numbers can be believed.

I wouldn't trust China as far as I can flob a Docker's Oyster.....

[Upo 91]

There is reason to doubt China's numbers, but there is no doubt their response to the epidemic was unprecedented and effective. We would *know* if it was running out of control there. The country is too big to not. Hong Kong, Taiwan, Singapore, even South Korea are examples of controlling the virus with less draconian measures than China took. Granted, South Korea got lucky with their infections being initially concentrated on small religious sect.

The western world is not going to be able to contain this in the same way. Nordic countries are probably the best case scenario in terms of preparedness and strength of governments, as well as the trust population has on their leaders. So, follow Denmark, Sweden, Norway, Finland. That's the A team. For the alternative scenario, consult the Americans.

[sgncfc 1,228]

51 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I understand this line of thought sgnfc and the point about building immunity (though I realise you are intentionally being cold / objective in the way you've described your point). Yet, I must ask have you modelled the numbers at the current rate (doubling every 2 days / 2.5 days). Just model those on a piece of paper and see how many days it takes to reach 100,000 or even a million. Should we really just allow exposure and risk 15% needing professional medical help (NHS)? Isn't this quite unprecedented in the last 100 years? 

Yes, it is completely unprecedented - but it isn't unplanned for. Western governments have been working with pharma and security companies since the Cold War on stuff like this. This is a war against an unknown enemy and there will be many different scenarios already modelled - the virus itself will determine which options we have available, and the decisions taken will have to be made on a cold, dispassionate basis. There are already tales coming from Italy that certain hospitals have focussed their limited resources on those with the best chance of survival - if we are to avoid that here, the critical point is that we control the number of infections and the severity of them; you may already have noted that the fatality rate in the UK is currently proportionately lower than elsewhere - we don't yet know if that is because of treatment, or because the demographic of people getting the virus to date is unrepresentative. We almost need the bigger numbers to make such judgements and decide where to go next.

In China, the first 1,000 deaths were almost exclusively (apart from a handful) in the over 60s and mainly in the over 80s; as the number of deaths grew that changed, as younger people succumbed; in Italy, the early proportions to date appear to be slightly different. Is it a different strain or is the Italian physiology different? Given that we recognise that Italy has a higher proportion of over 65s than China has, we might expect that - but Japan has an ever higher proportion and their experience to date has been very different to almost every other country.

Fact is, we don't know. I was just trying to sort of defend any government (of any colour) in this situation and try to emphasise that they are listening to the very best brains available who know an awful lot more about it than me or anyone else on this forum (probably!)

[Mello Yello 2,293]

I assume The Killers and that boring 'boys now blokes' band gigs are under cancellation/rescheduled threat as well?.....

[sonyc 5,519]

2 hours ago, sgncfc said:

It's easy to have a go at the government, but we've always done OK in the past on major issues and that's because we are guided by experts - in this case, they are being very, very, very closely advised by the CMO and GCHQ security personnel (No, I can't reveal my sources). There is a school of thought that it will be better in the long term to allow this virus to pass right through our population in a managed fashion i.e. we all get it at some point and thereby build up future immunity.

The Asian response has not done that - we don't yet know if they will all get secondary epidemics in a few weeks, which is what happened in 1919 with Spanish flu; the people who didn't get it first time round got it the second time, because everyone thought it had finished.

If we think that approach is the one to go for (as advised by medical and security experts who know what they are doing) then closing schools and playing football behind closed doors is not the way forward. Allowing those sectors of the population to be exposed is probably sensible because the vast majority of attendees are not in the demographic for which this this infection is fatal, and the level of care they will need from the NHS will not be as demanding on resources.

Having said all of that, the virus is moving among us much, much faster than originally forecast and is taking away some of our options as it does that. We will potentially come to a point where the public demand for closing down the country is too big to ignore - but that doesn't necessarily mean it's the right thing to do.

 

Looks like you're correct sgncfc. They wish to let this run awhile to get immunity into the system.

[City 2nd 191]

It has to be thought about for sure. Without doubt this is worrying times for us oldies!

[The Real Buh 3,432]

A cauldron of people shouting and screaming and gobbing over everyone.

 

I’m concerned to say the least

[Ward 3 372]

Wonder if season ticket holders will get a refund if season is concluded behind closed doors or season cancelled...

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 3,820]

Just now, Ward 3 said:

Wonder if season ticket holders will get a refund if season is concluded behind closed doors or season cancelled...

Whilst clubs are probably legally obliged to offer them, I doubt many people will accept them, especially at the smaller clubs. Clubs will already be suffering a cashflow problem with the lack of gate receipts, possibly having TV money withheld and also missing sponsorship revenue, so fans claiming refunds would be even more problematic. I certainly won't be asking for a refund and I think the majority here in Italy are feeling the same. 

[Branston Pickle 3,658]

If we were a L1 or Champs side I think people would let any potential refund slide, but as we are in the PL where receipts are dwarfed by tv revenue I’m less sure.  It’d be a nicer gesture if people took any refund, should it be offered, and gave it to a football charity rather than the clubs keeping it.

[Terminally Yellow 2,448]

I have to say I will be playing it safe and not going. I cannot risk passing any virus on to elderly family members.

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 3,820]

Anyway, the darts is about to start! I like darts but I've never really been a massive fan of the Premier League as it doesn't have the same level of excitement compared to the knockout competitions. But I've never looked forward to it as much as tonight, as it's basically the only thing to do today...

Quarantine is a nice refreshing change for a couple of days, but by day three it gets a bit boring. Next week should be fun...

[ricardo 7,395]

10 minutes ago, Terminally Yellow said:

I have to say I will be playing it safe and not going. I cannot risk passing any virus on to elderly family members.

Looking at it from a purely sefish point of view, if I don't go I might not live to ever see another game.

Decisions, decisions.🤔

[JF 694]

Having seen that conference I think a level of acceptance is needed. It’s not going away and the chances appear to be incredibly high that many people will get it. So what do you do? Lock yourself away for the next year and spend every moment trying to hide and run from it, or roll the dice and live your life. 

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

59 minutes ago, The Real Buh said:

A cauldron of people shouting and screaming and gobbing over everyone.

 

I’m concerned to say the least

Yes, The House of Lords is an unruly place,  Sir Buho

[Chumino 57]

I'm not going now. 

[ricardo 7,395]

😀🖐Nor me

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

If no one tells any of the Waveneys, there will be a 2,713strong crowd of disappointed  punters baying for Scampi.