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Haggerdoo

How many points will we have after the next 7 games (half way stage)

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Seven more games takes us to the half way stage of the season - how many points do you think we have once we've played 23 matches?

Next 7 games are:

Millwall (h)

Swansea (a)

Hull (a)

Rotherham (h)

Bolton (h)

Bristol C (a)

Blackburn (a)

 

I'm going for 4 wins and 2 draws and one defeat - 14 points which would put us on 44 points - if we can repeat that in 2nd half of the season it's 88 and probably an automatic promotion spot (yes It's a big ask I know plus we're no longer under the radar so everyone will be out to beat us).

Looking good at the moment, let's hope we don't suffer too many major injuries as things are ticking along very nicely at the moment. OTBC

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I would tend to agree with your points total but would add that it is unlikely that we will have the same poor run again as we did at the beginning of this half of the season.

This season has not thrown up a runaway leader(s) so far so it is more open with clubs more tightly bunched than is usual.

A good run up to Xmas could see us ahead enough to simply match others game for game..

If you can get a ST now then get it would be my advice. If not get your name down on the waiting list.

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A key juncture in the season, three home games in the next 7 and all against lesser lights; games in which we have struggled recently, when tough little teams come to defend in numbers.

Interesting to see if we've worked out a solution to that problem, too 

 

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three at home and four away. thirteen  points from that is promotion form. Anything less than ten would be a disappointment,

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I would like to think 13-15 from those games is possible, keeping us in and around the top 3, and I see no reason why not based on our current form.

I agree with Branston that we need to guard against complacency, but isn't that true in most everything? If we don't suffer too many injuries we should as a minimum be looking at play-offs.

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16 hours ago, Mason 47 said:

A key juncture in the season, three home games in the next 7 and all against lesser lights; games in which we have struggled recently, when tough little teams come to defend in numbers.

Interesting to see if we've worked out a solution to that problem, too 

 

Totally agree - Millwall, Rotherham and Bolton at home may sound like a nailed on 9 points - but these are all very physical sides who will come to park the bus - we should have enough about us these days, but it won't be as easy as some may be expecting

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51 :classic_smile:

Seriously though, we really have the capability. We are still improving & can play better football than anyone else in this division. We are also finding ways to penetrate teams who park the bus, which was one of our main problems last season. And our defensive mix-ups are now a rare occurrence (beginning of Wednesday game fiasco being an example of such :classic_blush:).

We will, of course drop points. Games like that vs. Stoke will happen, but I don't think they'll happen often. Too much genuine self-belief & sheer doggedness in the squad now. We can also withstand injuries, though keeping Max & Jamal fit is essential.

I'm going for 44

 

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We could win the lot the way we are currently performing and that's 21 massive points.

We won't though because it's Championship football and anything could happen.There will likely be one banana skin but that's not a daunting list by any means.

Swansea looks the most difficult.but not more so than Derby or Forest.

 

Edited by BroadstairsR

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No games are easy and any team can cause problems to any other team. However, if we can maintain the levels we are playing at, we should be able to keep the run going and get somewhere near 47 - 50 points which would be fantastic and give us a platform  for the return fixtures.  The division will have a different view of us compared to the beginning of the season - we were very much seen as a soft touch and all teams had to do wait for our possession to break down and then catch us out - I guess they will still try to do that, but we are a better team than last season and the opposition know it - no-one will enjoy playing us and that is just how we like it!

 

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On 03/11/2018 at 22:47, Bill said:

I would tend to agree with your points total but would add that it is unlikely that we will have the same poor run again as we did at the beginning of this half of the season.

This season has not thrown up a runaway leader(s) so far so it is more open with clubs more tightly bunched than is usual.

A good run up to Xmas could see us ahead enough to simply match others game for game..

If you can get a ST now then get it would be my advice. If not get your name down on the waiting list.

Just to confirm there is not a waiting list.

https://www.canaries.co.uk/Tickets/Season-Tickets/

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Could win all 7 games unlikely though.  But seem to have got over lesser teams coming to Carrow Rd and putting up the shutters see Wigan and Brentford.  Stoke was a one off.  And away form is now solid and we can get results against better teams see Derby.

Fewer than 9 points will see the Farke haters questioning his abilities.

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We could lose all three of the away games against the top half teams and still come out with 12 points. I can realistically see us winning 4 or 5 and maybe losing only 1 (or none) gaining 15 or 16 points. 45 would be a spectacular half way tally given our poor start.

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On 03/11/2018 at 20:38, Haggerdoo said:

Seven more games takes us to the half way stage of the season - how many points do you think we have once we've played 23 matches?

Next 7 games are:

Millwall (h)

Swansea (a)

Hull (a)

Rotherham (h)

Bolton (h)

Bristol C (a)

Blackburn (a)

 

I'm going for 4 wins and 2 draws and one defeat - 14 points which would put us on 44 points - if we can repeat that in 2nd half of the season it's 88 and probably an automatic promotion spot (yes It's a big ask I know plus we're no longer under the radar so everyone will be out to beat us).

Looking good at the moment, let's hope we don't suffer too many major injuries as things are ticking along very nicely at the moment. OTBC

Looking back on this now I'd be disappointed with 44 points - good chance of 46 plus at half way stage

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On 05/11/2018 at 11:21, TIL 1010 said:

Just to confirm there is not a waiting list.

https://www.canaries.co.uk/Tickets/Season-Tickets/

There may not be a waiting list but if those who deserted climb back on the ship that didn't sink they will have to sit wherever the vacancies are as many renewers managed to move to better seats last summer.

Before we reach halfway we will hit 21 games which will now be a real statistic instead of something cobbled together from totally unrelated games over two seasons. I'm going for 43 points after 21 games followed by 47 at the halfway point.

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We should beat Bolton - they are totally pants and on an awful run. The away games are potentially tough. We have been winning at mid table teams because they all seem to come out and play football at home; now that it's sinking in that we are actually a good side, many teams will setup a bit more defensively and happily take a point - like Hull. I would take 5 points from the next 3 games but ideally 6 to keep up that magic 2 points per game average.

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19 hours ago, nutty nigel said:

There may not be a waiting list but if those who deserted climb back on the ship that didn't sink they will have to sit wherever the vacancies are as many renewers managed to move to better seats last summer.

Before we reach halfway we will hit 21 games which will now be a real statistic instead of something cobbled together from totally unrelated games over two seasons. I'm going for 43 points after 21 games followed by 47 at the halfway point.

Agree Nutty, those who gave up because they weren't enjoying it will have to take what they can get now as there was a lot of seat swapping 😀  As for points I'll be happy with anything 45pts plus at the halfway point.

Im assuming its 75pts to aim for for play offs & 90 for top 2?

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The next three games are those that in a promotion season we would be expecting to win. Our current form suggests we can.

Starting the second half of the season needing 26 pints from 23 games to hit that suggested 75 point playoff place would certainly see us nailed on for a play off place - but more importantly in a strong position for an automatic place.

These games will show if we have what it takes to grind out results where the tempo can take out the 'urgency'.

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If we can get to 46 points at half way that hits the 2 ppg magical target and obv 92 at end of season.

 

I'm gonna go for 47 now though, 2 wins and a draw, as the Hull game shows you can't win every one.

 

And we all know that you can easily slip up in any of these fixtures and have a defeat, it's going to happen sooner or later but I'm optimistic we can sustain this fantastic run.

 

Anyone know if there's a table based on the last 15 games ?  That would be interesting :classic_laugh:

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If you assume the average points per game for the top eight clubs after 20 games is maintained until the end of the season, we'd need 79 points for a top six finish, 82 for top two and 91points would secure the title. 

If we have 47 at the half way stage this says we'll only need 35 more points for auto promotion, so W9, D8, L6 which seems doable. As to when these events could take place given these average points per game, a, top 6 place could be secured after game 42, auto promotion after game 43, and the Championship title not until the the last day of the season when we are away at Villa and Leeds are away at Ipswich. :classic_ninja:

However, that said I don't believe we'll see such a crowded field between 3 and 8 for the rest of the season; but on the other hand the maths doesn't lie ... it's just your underlying assumptions.

Screen Shot 2018-12-03 at 14.14.41.png

 

Screen Shot 2018-12-03 at 15.47.52.png

Edited by Surfer

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I also recalculated the PPG averages based on the last 16 games (i.e. still take the first four games points into account for estimated Points total, but exclude those from the PPG averages)

We can see the following difference to points and positions. Top six essentially unchanged except we'd beat Leeds to the title by 11 points, and Middlesbrough would drop out of the top six. At the bottom not much change except to show how awful Bolton have been since the first four games. 

Top table with the re-compute, lower table without the recompute. 

 

 

 

 

Screen Shot 2018-12-03 at 18.59.32.png

Screen Shot 2018-12-03 at 14.14.41.png

Edited by Surfer

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Do you know what do the 1, 2, 3, -3,-2,-1 numbers mean on the left hand side of the current league table Surfer. I like the way that format shows the gaps between teams. 🙂

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Around the halfway stage seems a reasonable time to extrapolate the table for the rest of the season. Obviously sometimes teams have significantly different halves like Fulham last year. However, these typically don't seem to affect the top 2: as per Michael Bailey's article yesterday, teams which achieve 40pts inside 20 games almost always go on to get promoted.

In any case, you have to enjoy the good times while they are still good, so go ahead and dream about winning the league. But remember that the team got to the top through hard work, and the job is less than half done. We fans have our part to play too: the atmosphere has been great at Carrow Road recently; let's keep that up.

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