Jump to content
Sign in to follow this  
PurpleCanary

With two games left

Recommended Posts

So the situation seems to be this. To have a realistic chance of

finishing in the top two we need to win our last two games and get to 88

points. What follows is based on that effective necessity.For

us to finish ahead of Watford they must lose a game. We would then have a

better than even chance of beating them on goal difference.For

us to finish ahead of Middlesbrough they need to drop points in one

game. If they win and draw and we then finish level on points, on 88, we will almost certainly

be ahead on goal difference.For us to finish ahead of Bournemouth (who are the only team away onthe last day) they need to lose a game. A win and a draw would see them ahead on goal difference.Today''s

results have not gone well for us, but not as badly as they might have

done. Watford only winning by one might be useful. And Bournemouth''s

draw might mean, even if we don''t overtake them, that they don''t make

the automatics. From what I have seen and read, I would be happier

facing Bournemouth in a play-off final than Watford or Middlesbrough.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
i dont think we can get boro in then playoff semis now?, we will either finish 3rd or 4th I believe.

If Ipswich finish 6th ,I''d rather finish 4th than 3rd to avoid them.....if that means not wanting us to win a game on the last day, so be it.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary"]i dont think we can get boro in then playoff semis now?, we will either finish 3rd or 4th I believe.

If Ipswich finish 6th ,I''d rather finish 4th than 3rd to avoid them.....if that means not wanting us to win a game on the last day, so be it.[/quote]Bearing in mind who we play in the last game that particular want is pretty much on the cards anyway....[:D]

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Are 2 out of 3 teams gonna lose a game? It''s very possible. There''s no reason to give up just yet but the fat lady is just applying the final smear of lipstick before she walks out on the big stage to grab the microphone....and no I''m not talking about Delia.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Purple - why would you fancy Bournemouth over Boro and Watford? Current form?

We have stripped Watford twice this season. Boro have obviously done the double over us, but we can play a lot better than we have against them again, (and with any referee with a back bone!!)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="Crabbycanary3"]Purple - why would you fancy Bournemouth over Boro and Watford? Current form?

We have stripped Watford twice this season. Boro have obviously done the double over us, but we can play a lot better than we have against them again, (and with any referee with a back bone!!)[/quote]Crabby, it is only a feeling. I didn''t see the game yesterday but Middlesbrough seem very streetwise, to put it kindly! And they do have the best defence in the division, although I am not sure what the post-season position is with all of their loan players. Kalas, who played against us, has now gone back to Chelsea. I could see a similar game to yesterday, with Middlesbrough going ahead and then defending in numbers, or frustrating us into over-attacking and catching us on the break.Watford''s goalscorers worry me a bit, although perhaps less than Middlesbrough''s defence. But I picked Bournemouth mainly because I suspect they would find a play-off final even more daunting a game than we would.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[quote user="PurpleCanary"]So the situation seems to be this. To have a realistic chance of

finishing in the top two we need to win our last two games and get to 88

points. What follows is based on that effective necessity.For

us to finish ahead of Watford they must lose a game. We would then have a

better than even chance of beating them on goal difference.For

us to finish ahead of Middlesbrough they need to drop points in one

game. If they win and draw and we then finish level on points, on 88, we will almost certainly

be ahead on goal difference.For us to finish ahead of Bournemouth (who are the only team away onthe last day) they need to lose a game. A win and a draw would see them ahead on goal difference.Today''s

results have not gone well for us, but not as badly as they might have

done. Watford only winning by one might be useful. And Bournemouth''s

draw might mean, even if we don''t overtake them, that they don''t make

the automatics. From what I have seen and read, I would be happier

facing Bournemouth in a play-off final than Watford or Middlesbrough.
[/quote]Just to summarise, assuming (which I don''t) we win our last two games, we need any two of the following three things to happen:a) Watford to lose one of their games.b) Bournemouth to lose one of their games.c) Middlesbrough to drop points in one of their games.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

I just feel that needing 2 out of 3 things to happen will be just a bit too much. If we''d just nicked an equaliser or Watford dropped points yesterday or Bournemouth  lost like they should have against Sheff Weds, then I''d be a lot more confident today.

I felt that Sheff Weds would have a big say in our promotion hopes and fancied them to take some points off our rivals. I wouldn''t be surprised if they nicked something off Watford, but I guess it''s Brighton that have the biggest say at the moment..things will be clearer after the early kick-off on Saturday and we''ll have an idea of the task ahead of us. If Brighton can take even a point off Watford then things will be more interesting. Then it''s all eyes on Fulham at home to Boro and hope we do the business in our match. Lots of ifs and buts..however, you never know.

 

I''ll have everything crossed on Saturday and may even pluck up the courage to watch the Brighton v Watford game.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just watching the highlights from games yesterday and the Bournemouth players that were utterly inconsolable after conceding a last minute penalty.Hopefully put a bit of self doubt in their heads for the coming games.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="morty"]Just watching the highlights from games yesterday and the Bournemouth players that were utterly inconsolable after conceding a last minute penalty.Hopefully put a bit of self doubt in their heads for the coming games.[/quote]The only trouble is that Boro and Watford now have that unquenchable belief that Bournemouth and us had merely a game ago. The good thing is if we get them in the play offs though......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In the play off matches how is the draw determined is it team 3 v team 6, or team 3 v team 4, or some other combination.

Having surrender 6 points to Middlesbrough so far this season would it not be best for them to get Automatic promotion and give us a better run, in the play offs if we fail to secure an automatic position

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="Herman "][quote user="morty"]Just watching the highlights from games yesterday and the Bournemouth players that were utterly inconsolable after conceding a last minute penalty.Hopefully put a bit of self doubt in their heads for the coming games.[/quote]The only trouble is that Boro and Watford now have that unquenchable belief that Bournemouth and us had merely a game ago. The good thing is if we get them in the play offs though......[/quote]Don''t get me wrong, I am resigned to the play offs now, and they don''t scare me. But there will be a twist or two to come yet. Boro''s form, especially away from home recently has been patchy, Bournemouth have been far from convincing in recent games, Watford look the most confident.Next games, Boro away to Fulham, Watford away to Brighton, Bournmouth home to Bolton. Theres plenty of points to be dropped there!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
The main thing is also that the playoffs are guaranteed. Its not like we miss out on autos and our season is over.Plenty to be optimistic about!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Two defeats have really deflated me this season,Brentford and Boro, so i am desparately keeping my optimism level low now. Just for the sake of my health.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

If things go our way we get 2nd..brilliant! If things go as expected we get 3rd and a couple of exciting and very winnable ties against Ipswich in the play offs, if things go badly we get 4th and a very out of form, dejected Derby in the semi''s.

No matter what happens no outcome will be too awful to bear. I just fu(king pray we don''t draw ''Boro in the finals and they''ve well and truly got our number!

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
We just have to make sure we win both our games to keep the pressure up on the other teams. If we win next weekend and any of Watford ,Bournemouth and Middlesboro drop points, we are back in it and the pressure will be on them and not us on the last day. They have everything to lose as they are in the driving seat whereas we have everything to gain from any slip-ups.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just try and score as many goals as we possibly can in the next couple of games and accept our fate.

Rotherham could be a good trip for the faithful.

I can''t get worked up over worrying about it any more.

I appreciate Purples'' summary on another thread and shall be keeping my eye on that as the next couple of weeks unfold.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
And there is still the scenario that the top 4 go into the final game all on 85 points. Wouldn''t that crank up the drama......

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="shefcanary"]And there is still the scenario that the top 4 go into the final game all on 85 points. Wouldn''t that crank up the drama......[/quote]Yes. It is possible for the four teams in contention to finish on 88 points! Which would almost certainly see Bournemouth promoted and Middlesbrough not, and a close-run thing between ourselves and Watford.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

All these if''s and but''s only work if we next week WIN at Rotherham, not a nice ground to go to PLUS they will be needing points unlike Fullham, Bolton, SheffWed and Charlton who play Bournemouth, Middlesborgh and Watford

Still in our hands BY THE PLAY OFFS

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="daly"]

All these if''s and but''s only work if we next week WIN at Rotherham, not a nice ground to go to PLUS they will be needing points unlike Fullham, Bolton, SheffWed and Charlton who play Bournemouth, Middlesborgh and Watford

Still in our hands BY THE PLAY OFFS

[/quote]

Very true words. We MUST beat (hopefully convincingly) Rotherham. They will be completely up for it.

As for nothing to play for...Sheff Weds had nothing to play for against Bournemouth and they got a draw (and could have easily won). Huddersfield didn''t really have anything to play for and put 4 past Derby. Charlton at home are very tough to beat as well and you never know with Fulham. Anything can happen so don''t totally lose faith in the autos, but yes..our destiny is in our own hands with the play-offs at the very minimum :)

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

[quote user="hardley"]In the play off matches how is the draw determined is it team 3 v team 6, or team 3 v team 4, or some other combination.......[/quote]Here''s the answer to it all :http://www.football-league.co.uk/news/article/2015/dates-for-sky-bet-football-league-play-offs-confirmed-2323292.aspxIn a nutshell it''s 3rd v 6th and 4th v 5th with the away game first. The away leg is on Fri 8th May with the home game on Fri 15th 7.45 with 7.45 KOs unless we end up playing Ipswich. Then it''s Sat 9th and Sat 16th with 12.15 KOs.The Final is on Mon 25th May( apologies for not putting up a click link.....haven''t the foggiest how that works )

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
In a nutshell it''s 3rd v 6th and 4th v 5th with the away game first. The away leg is on Fri 8th May with the home game on Fri 15th 7.45 with 7.45 KOs unless we end up playing Ipswich. Then it''s Sat 9th and Sat 16th with 12.15 KOs.

.

if we finish 4th though presumably the first leg - away, would be on the Saturday?....if its Derby who finish 5th and not Ipswich??

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
[quote user="GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary"]In a nutshell it''s 3rd v 6th and 4th v 5th with the away game first. The away leg is on Fri 8th May with the home game on Fri 15th 7.45 with 7.45 KOs unless we end up playing Ipswich. Then it''s Sat 9th and Sat 16th with 12.15 KOs.

.

if we finish 4th though presumably the first leg - away, would be on the Saturday?....if its Derby who finish 5th and not Ipswich??[/quote]Not as I read it.Both legs are to be played on Fri 8th May with the return on Fri 15th unless Norwich are paired with Ipswich. Then and only then would we play on Sat in both legs.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
Sign in to follow this  

×
×
  • Create New...