What happens when the Premier League bubble bursts?

[littleyellowbirdie 3,138]

Like every financial bubble I think theTV money to the PL is going to start falling at some point. What does everybody think will happen to the clubs in the premier league when the TV money falls?

[BroadstairsR 2,273]

Doesn''t show much sign of drying up. The opposite is, in fact, true.

I''m inclined to think that official paid for streaming will come in sooner rather than later and club income will increase because of it.

I''d pay for such a service and it would mean that some of my money starts going into the Carrow Road coffers again.

[ricardo 8,034]

Premier League in demand world wide so no sign of any bursting of the bubble.

[It's Character Forming 1,204]

Well if you look at the championship, it went through the nightmare scenario when itv digital went bust. There were a few tough years and a couple of clubs went into administration.

I suspect the people who run the Prem are feeling pretty good at the moment cos in BT they have a genuine competitor in the market after ages with Sky as the only real player, hence the tv income for the Prem is now at a record high.

Truth is the TV companies will continue to pay big bucks for TV rights as long as punters are willing to pay a lot for watching it, and there''s no sign of that changing.

[Buh 0]

If it burst tomorrow we are debt free with assets. Is there a team better set up for the financial meltdown of the premier league than us?

[Juggy 0]

"Doesn''t show much sign of drying up"

Do bubbles ever show signs of bursting? Even those who are in a position to spot them are either in denial, or ignored by people who are in denial.

I presume you spotted the global financial meltdown in 2006?

[Juggy 0]

"If it burst tomorrow we are debt free with assets"

Errmmm.... nope. If it burst tomorrow we are stuck with tens/hundreds of millions of pounds of liabilities in the form of player contracts and possibly money that we owe in transfer fees to other clubs.

[Buh 0]

I will worry the minute we are "dependant" on the prem money. At the moment it supplements us to buy higher quality players and allows us to incrementally improve our facilities (academy etc) but if it all went in an instant, we would adapt and survive.The rest of the clubs can sit in the beds they have made, I support Norwich, not Norwich with prem money. It''s out of our hands, no point worrying about it.

[littleyellowbirdie 3,138]

[quote user="Buh"]I will worry the minute we are "dependant" on the prem money. At the moment it supplements us to buy higher quality players and allows us to incrementally improve our facilities (academy etc) but if it all went in an instant, we would adapt and survive.The rest of the clubs can sit in the beds they have made, I support Norwich, not Norwich with prem money. It''s out of our hands, no point worrying about it.[/quote]My feeling is that if TV revenue fell markedly then we''re in a better position to bear it. Does anyone know what percentage of revenue goes on salaries at Norwich? Last figure I saw was 50%.

[Juggy 0]

We are dependent on the prem money, every club in this league is outside of the top 4 or 5.

If the money stopped tomorrow then only Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea, maybe Liverpool, would stand a chance of surviving.

We have players on 3 or 4 year contracts, and remember that even if the money stopped tomorrow..... the club will have accrued huge HMRC bills which will come.

HMRC bills are what pushes most clubs to bankruptcy in the lower leagues (+ Scotland), they are increasingly unforgiving and will get every penny in the pound that they can (and rightly so).

[Juggy 0]

Remember that our player contracts are being awarded in the knowledge that we currently have the safeguard of generous parachute payments, and they come from Sky money too.

We almost went bust following our last relegation despite parachute payments, many clubs are in trouble (Bolton, Birmingham etc) even with them.

Imagine what it would be like without them.

Van Wolsfwinkel could be our Zigic if we went down (he is on £50k a week at Birmingham).

[Graham Paddons Beard 2,791]

With BT just adding to the competition, and the with the world cup increasing world wide demand even more, it would take a seriosus global meltdown to burst the bubble. It ain''t gonna happen for a few years. 

 

Just be grateful Norwich City are right in amongst one of the global increasing markets. Show me another Norfolk based business that has increased its turnover by this mulitple in 5 years?  Answer? None.

 

Enjoy it Little Yellow . This is the big time. We''ve just got to stay here....

 

 

[nutty nigel 7,902]

Enjoy it indeed GPB. But remember it''s increasingly football for tv to please consumers world wide. Those who go to games and follow their team all over the country may well start to feel short changed. But he who pays the piper calls the tune...

 

 

[Dubai Mark 0]

Good question, but I am definately one of those who believes that the financial reward for being in the EPL is going to get bigger, significantly so over the next 5 years at least. The EPL still has room for growth globally and as access to watching the games through various outlets increases then that means more cash being generated through the viewing rights and the advertising. The one thing that I think must change though, is that the cost of access to the actual live matches needs to be controlled and made very affordable, otherwise we will end up with empty seats in the stadium whilst everyone watches on tv and streaming and also declining fan bases of the fans who actually go to a live game.....yep Waveney more "plastics"!

[Fat Nat 0]

Indeed my plastic friend I am one of the few who believes that the ending of the bloated money football received from sky would actually benefit the English game as a whole.

No foreign mercenaries coming for the money. More English players playing in the top league and a stronger English national team as a result

Local fans supporting their local team.

The ending of the sky money is an eldorado as far as I can see

[Waveney Canary 0]

Voluptuous Nat I agree 100 per cent with that. I can buy into your vision of the future but with one small addition.

A team full of English talent playing for Norwich and England managed by the Messiah now that would be perfect!!

[crabbycanary 2]

[quote user="Le Juge"]We are dependent on the prem money, every club in this league is outside of the top 4 or 5.

If the money stopped tomorrow then only Arsenal, Man City, Man Utd, Arsenal and Chelsea, maybe Liverpool, would stand a chance of surviving.

[/quote]

What would happen to some of these Clubs if their owners decided to walk away?

[Herman 11,136]

"Fat Nat"

Indeed my plastic friend I am one of the few who believes that the ending of the bloated money football received from sky would actually benefit the English game as a whole.

No foreign mercenaries coming for the money. More English players playing in the top league and a stronger English national team as a result

Local fans supporting their local team.

The ending of the sky money is an eldorado as far as I can see

Did any of this happen pre-Sky. The English leagues were full of British players yet the Home nations were still crappy.

The kids were still supporting the big teams rather than their local.

Like it or not people pay to watch the big foreign players and the Premiership would be poorer place without the likes of Henry, Suarez, Aguero etc. etc.

Admittedly the current way isn''t perfect but lose the money and we will regress back to the 70''s and 80''s ''glory'' days.

You only have to look at the Scottish leagues to see what happens when the money goes.

[It's Character Forming 1,204]

[quote user="Waveney canary"]Voluptuous Nat I agree 100 per cent with that. I can buy into your vision of the future but with one small addition.

A team full of English talent playing for Norwich and England managed by the Messiah now that would be perfect!![/quote]

I''m sure all of you at 1p5wich would prefer it if we didn''t have players like Fer RVW Olsson etcetera

[ricardo 8,034]

[quote user="Le Juge"]"Doesn''t show much sign of drying up"

Do bubbles ever show signs of bursting? Even those who are in a position to spot them are either in denial, or ignored by people who are in denial.

I presume you spotted the global financial meltdown in 2006?[/quote]

No, but I spotted the one in 2008.

[PurpleCanary 6,386]

[quote user="littleyellowbirdie"][quote user="Buh"]I will worry the minute we are "dependant" on the prem money. At the moment it supplements us to buy higher quality players and allows us to incrementally improve our facilities (academy etc) but if it all went in an instant, we would adapt and survive.The rest of the clubs can sit in the beds they have made, I support Norwich, not Norwich with prem money. It''s out of our hands, no point worrying about it.[/quote]My feeling is that if TV revenue fell markedly then we''re in a better position to bear it. Does anyone know what percentage of revenue goes on salaries at Norwich? Last figure I saw was 50%.[/quote]Last season it was 67.7 per cent.

[Nuff Said 5,962]

[quote user="Waveney canary"]Voluptuous Nat I agree 100 per cent with that. I can buy into your vision of the future but with one small addition.

A team full of English talent playing for Norwich and England managed by the Messiah now that would be perfect!![/quote]Forum poster agrees with himself shocker. [:|]

[Gingerpele 0]

For me, people thinking the PL bubble will burst is similar to people saying Hollywood is dead/dying. It could happen (in fact it sort of did with Hollywood) but essentially people want entertainment, they are willing to pay for that and the top dog stays top dog for a long long time. As soon as a set back occurs, even a big one, the money and stature was already there to easily re-establish the brand.

It could cause some concern for a few clubs, if it happened suddenly. But essentially I don''t see anything really major happening that will effect football as we know it. Before anything like that happens the authorities will start to restrict finances properly (not this silly Fifa financial fair play thing which as far as I can tell means very little).

[ZLF 335]

If the bubble does burst I think there will be two key impacts,  none really to the fans who will still have a game to watch.

 

With a withdrawl of external finances the salary of players and agents will fall in line with income - they would be hardest hit.

 

Seondly clubs with the largest debts will be unable to service the loans,  so i woudl anticpate a spike of Portsmouth-esque insolvency and potentially a club disappearing.   However once the shock (a la ITV debacle) has worked through football will carry on.

 

However whether the bubble will burst is dubious,  more likely to no longer inflate as fast or possibly a slighgt deflation    

[Juggy 0]

"A team full of English talent playing for Norwich and England managed by the Messiah"

Is your Messiah Nick Griffin, or are you bending the rules of nationalism to allow a Scot to manage your utopian team of Englishmen?

Can we at least keep Van Wolfswinkel?

[nutty nigel 7,902]

Must have mean''t Hughton, the English Messiah...

 

 

[Fromage Frais 14]

[quote user="littleyellowbirdie"]Like every financial bubble I think theTV money to the PL is going to start falling at some point. What does everybody think will happen to the clubs in the premier league when the TV money falls?[/quote]

I am sure you are right at the moment foreign money prefers to pay to watch premier league football and buy London properties.

At some stage maybe the football league in those countries will take off and fans would rather watch Shanghai vs Tokyo at some point.

You have to make hay while the sun shines but be prudent as it does not need the money to stop... just for the money to be less than the money before such is the nature of people speculating.

[Lets be aving you! 0]

Sky or BT may or may not have overpaid on individual contracts for PL football, but I don''t believe that the game itself is in a ''bubble'', in the conventional sense of being massively overpriced or about to pop anytime soon.

 

Rather, the game is finally starting to be properly marketed in a way that simply never happened in the past with its myopic leaders and hooligan culture.

 

The sport is a marketing dream in that it has true international appeal (being pretty much the only global sport), and now has close tie-ins with the mega-rich and the celebrity culture. The convergence of digital media can only enhance this appeal, as a product to be consumed on a global scale.

 

Wait till it catches on in China. The previous poster''s reference to a putative Shanghai vs Tokyo game assumes that this is all a zero-sum game, with any future growth elsewhere sapping the current strength of the PL game. Rather, such pan-Asian games will be just another channel on Sky, or whomsoever has successfully bid for the even more expensive rights by then.

[vos 176]

As Ginger Pele states Sky will continue to get away with their "hype" whilst football is entertaining. It is also a fact that the Premiership is a worldwide brand for entertainment. I have to confess that despite being a long standing fan I find very few home games entertaining, and away games even worse. I do not see the quality of the football as very great. I do not wish to knock young Redmond for example, but he is quite clever with the ball at his feet, but he belongs strongly to the Lennon/Wright Phillips brigade who are very poor when it comes to crossing the ball. When I went to Newcastle their multi million strikers were nearly hitting the corner flags with their shots.

Having said that, being Norfolk born and bred I still look forward to every game, even Fulham and the strolling Berbatov. I suppose it is just plain loyalty to the great City of Norwich. But unless I obtain some sort of entertainment soon I wonder whether I will give up that season ticket !!!

Lets be under no illusions, Sky have a great business plan to make money out of football. I do not see the bubble bursting for the foreseeable future but it is a fact that the Premiership consists of about 14 teams who, because of the money, are forced to scrape for points to stay up rather than give us regular entertaining football.                                                          

[PurpleCanary 6,386]

[quote user="vos"]

As Ginger Pele states Sky will continue to get away with their "hype" whilst football is entertaining. It is also a fact that the Premiership is a worldwide brand for entertainment. I have to confess that despite being a long standing fan I find very few home games entertaining, and away games even worse. I do not see the quality of the football as very great. I do not wish to knock young Redmond for example, but he is quite clever with the ball at his feet, but he belongs strongly to the Lennon/Wright Phillips brigade who are very poor when it comes to crossing the ball. When I went to Newcastle their multi million strikers were nearly hitting the corner flags with their shots.

Having said that, being Norfolk born and bred I still look forward to every game, even Fulham and the strolling Berbatov. I suppose it is just plain loyalty to the great City of Norwich. But unless I obtain some sort of entertainment soon I wonder whether I will give up that season ticket !!!

Lets be under no illusions, Sky have a great business plan to make money out of football. I do not see the bubble bursting for the foreseeable future but it is a fact that the Premiership consists of about 14 teams who, because of the money, are forced to scrape for points to stay up rather than give us regular entertaining football.                                                          

[/quote]That has certainly been the case. In part because Sky had no serious competitors. Setanta, their previous supposed rival, went belly up. BT seem as if they may have to be taken far more seriously. Sky ended up bidding far more than they had planned for to win the lion''s share of the latest three-year Premier League deal. And pulled out of trying to match BT for the rights to the Champions League and the Europa League.While both can afford to pay what they bid, fine. Certainly for the clubs raking in more and more TV money. But there has to be a suspicion that one or even both will end up paying more than they can afford and one will pull out. If the TV rights end up as an a monopoly, either with Sky or BT or someone else, then that could be a whole new ball game.