The Bottom Three - An Assessment

[a1canary 0]

Blackburn and Wigan - going down.

Even with Blackburn''s improvement, the total absurdity of the way that club is being run will weigh too heavily on them.

Wigan have saved themselves one too many times and the club and the players just look like they don''t have it in them to do it again.

The third one i have a real problem with.

Here are the candidates with a score out of 10 for likeliness of going down!:

Swansea - Spectacular home form, allied to the odd win and draws on the road,sure to be enough to keep them up.

5/10

Fulham - too many good players, starting to gel as a team, return of Zamora given team a big boost.

4/10

QPR - Money + Hughes = Survival

Although if i was Hughes I wouldn''t underestimate the task of creating any sort of team spirit/ethic in that dressing room.

6/10

Wolves - Mick''s a wiley old fox and they are a capable side despite inconsistency. Don''t think they''ll ever pull well away from it but think they''ll do enough to stay out of it.

7/10

Everton - Seems unlikely but David Moyes is really starting to look like he has had enough and that can''t be a good sign. Gibson is huge signing for them and could be what makes the difference.

5/10

West Brom - Decent manager, knows how to play to the team''s strengths, but lacking goals. Imagine they need a striker in the window but don''t look too active in the market.

7/10

Bolton - Of all the teams that have been in the bottom three this season, Bolton look the most together as a team, even if they''ve played badly at times. The team and the manager have enough about them i think. Just.

7/10

Norwich - Don''t be silly.

0/10

So on that basis, i make it between Bolton, WBA and Wolves. Really tough call though

[Row D Seat 7 0]

I put this on another thread, think it will be:

18. Wolves

19. Blackburn

20. Wigan

[norfolkbroadslim 223]

Unless someone gets points deducted for irregularities[;)]

[chicken 0]

I think it will be close for a lot of teams down there.

As much as people write off Wolves I thonk they have a much better team than QPR.

Even with Hughes they have struggled to attract good players so far. Macheda is good but does he have the experience to score the goals they need? Otherwise their actual strikeforce is quite limited. SWP is probably their best player going forward.

They have just signed Onouha but is he even that good? A lot of teams have had him on loan so it seems and few of them have gone for him this time. Also wasnt it Joey Barton that punched him in the face whilst at Man City!

[a1canary 0]

They''ve got Buzaky, don''t know if his show last week will prove a flash in the pan, but Mackie looks like he''s starting to find his feet too. I''d love it if they did go, and that''s a good point re Barton and Onouha, hence my comment about the dressing room/team ethic. I actually think Hughes will gently squeeze him out. He''s a liability and Hughes probably knows it. I think they''ll be ok. Unfortunately.

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 2,411]

Think you are getting him confused with someone else, Boyata maybe. Onuoha has only been on loan to one team, Sunderland last year, and was probably their best defender. He also has almost 100 apperances for Man City - it is a good signing for QPR no doubt. They''ve also brought in Taiwo who is an very good left back. They are also about to bring in Diakite who is very highly regarded in France.

 

The strikers will come soon, the only question over their survival is if Hughes can get all these guys working together - but Hughes has a good record at building a team and doing it fairly quickly.

[Canary_on_the Trent 0]

Impressed with the quality of QPR''s signings;

Onuoha is somebody I''ve always rated, 1 of the best young defenders around but his progress has stalled. Last season he was superb at Sunderland.

Taiwo has been 1 of the best left backs in Europe for a few years now but for whatever reason his move to AC Milan hasn''t worked out.

However you''ve got to ask, why have they attracted decent players? Money! They certainly won''t have the team-spirit we''ve created here.

[Salopian 1]

Wigan to go down for certain! The fact that they are considering selling Moses suggests that they have given up hope.

 

With them, it is difficult to predict. QPR spending plus Hughes as manager will probably mean survival.

Swansea have bought as well, and should be OK.

Blackburn are inconsistent enough to go down.

West Brom and Wolves have some good players, but apart from occasional success they ae in the doldrums ( I think WBA may beat us on Saturday, if they want it enough.). Bolton also have some quality but are inconsistent.

Everton look doubtful, but may just hve enough to cling on.

Fulham should be safe, although I don''t rate their manager, who seems to upset individuals regularly.

 

If I had to stick my neck out I would think that the other releagted teams could be Blackburn and either Wolves or WBA

[nutty nigel 7,870]

The problem for QPR is that January transfers traditionally take a while to settle in. A goalscorer can make a difference, Ashton nearly did for us but even he took a few games to reach fitness and gel. I don''t know what the stats are for teams at the bottom who change managers after halfway but I doubt they''re good. I doubt Hughes is a short term fix and I reckon his contract will allow him to build again if they are relegated.

 

At this stage goal difference is a good indicator and on this the bottom five look in trouble. As they do being at least 5 points adrift. Wigan look doomed on -26. Blackburn on -12 have always been my favourites to get out of trouble but only if they keep the manager. Blackburn fans don''t deserve this and if they stay up will give no thanks to Keane. I think 2 of QPR, Bolton & Wolves will go down and it''s too close to call. But if pushed I think Bolton will get most points from the teams around them.

 

Wigan, QPR and Wolves for me.

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 2,411]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]

The problem for QPR is that January transfers traditionally take a while to settle in. A goalscorer can make a difference, Ashton nearly did for us but even he took a few games to reach fitness and gel. I don''t know what the stats are for teams at the bottom who change managers after halfway but I doubt they''re good. I doubt Hughes is a short term fix and I reckon his contract will allow him to build again if they are relegated.

 

At this stage goal difference is a good indicator and on this the bottom five look in trouble. As they do being at least 5 points adrift. Wigan look doomed on -26. Blackburn on -12 have always been my favourites to get out of trouble but only if they keep the manager. Blackburn fans don''t deserve this and if they stay up will give no thanks to Keane. I think 2 of QPR, Bolton & Wolves will go down and it''s too close to call. But if pushed I think Bolton will get most points from the teams around them.

 

Wigan, QPR and Wolves for me.

[/quote]

It worked very well for WBA last season, brining in Hodgson to get them safe (he also did the same for Fulham). Replacing Warnock with Hughes is always a step forward - but you are right in the squad needing some time to settle together.

 

I think Bolton are in deep, deep trouble and will go down with Wolves (who''s meagre attempts to strenght with Kevin Davis and Diouf from Man U have failed). Bolton are the classic ''too good to go down team'' this season - depsite having talented players and a decent manager they seem to lack a plan or ideas in games (apart from Liverpool) and are relying on Zat Knight and Paul Robinson at the back and N''Gog to score the goals...

[a1canary 0]

I''m putting my money on WBA for that last spot.

If they don''t find someone to get them goals this month, i think they''re in trouble. All it would take is an injury to Odemwinge (or a transfer even!) and they''d be stuffed.

[Nuff Said 5,868]

If QPR do go down, where will that leave them financially? Are all these new players they''re recruiting prepared to have relegation clauses in their contracts? Could be a disaster.

[nutty nigel 7,870]

Could well be Bolton Beth. I was really struggling to choose 2 of the 3. In the end it came down to the fact that Bolton haven''t lost to any of the others. (I don''t think!)

[norfolkbroadslim 223]

8	Stoke	22	-10	30
9	Norwich	22	-4	29
10	Sunderland	22	5	27
11	Aston Villa	22	-3	27
12	Fulham	22	-3	26
13	Swansea	22	-4	26
14	Everton	22	-4	26
15	West Brom	22	-9	25
16	QPR	22	-15	20
17	Bolton	22	-19	19
18	Blackburn	22	-12	18
19	Wolves	22	-15	18
20	Wigan	22	-26	15

 

I think West Brom will be safe, but only courtesy of the fact they have 25 points and are 7 points above the drop zone.  Wigan are surely doomed.  Wolves are on a woeful run, they have only won 4 all season and haven''t won any of their last 8 games.  The last spot is a tough one to call, Blackburn have only won 4 games all season, although they have won 2 of their last 4 league games and in these 4 games they have won 2 drawn 1 and lost 1, which suggests form is improving. 

 

Bolton have won 6 games, which is hard to believe, but that''s the same number as Swansea, Fulham and Villa.  The difference being games drawn, Bolton 1, Swansea and Fulham 8 and Villa 9. QPR have won 5, 1 less than Bolton.  Norwich, Everton, Sunderland and West Brom have all won 7 games.

 

The last spot comes down to Bolton, Blackburn and QPR.  It''s far from easy to call, especially as it''s difficult to judge how QPR will fare with their new players and new manager.  If I have to pick one I''m going with QPR, mainly due to their last 10 fixture which look pretty tough on paper -

 

Saturday, 17 March 2012

Barclays Premier League

QPR v Liverpool, 15:00

---

Saturday, 24 March 2012

Barclays Premier League

Sunderland v QPR, 15:00

---

Saturday, 31 March 2012

Barclays Premier League

QPR v Arsenal, 15:00

---

Saturday, 7 April 2012

Barclays Premier League

Man Utd v QPR, 15:00

---

Monday, 9 April 2012

Barclays Premier League

QPR v Swansea, 15:00

---

Saturday, 14 April 2012

Barclays Premier League

West Brom v QPR, 15:00

---

Saturday, 21 April 2012

Barclays Premier League

QPR v Tottenham, 15:00

---

Saturday, 28 April 2012

Barclays Premier League

Chelsea v QPR, 15:00

---

Saturday, 5 May 2012

Barclays Premier League

QPR v Stoke, 15:00

---

Sunday, 13 May 2012

Barclays Premier League

Man City v QPR, 15:00

 

 

 

So for me it''s -

 

 

18 - Qpr

 

19 - Wolves

 

20 - Wigan

[norfolkbroadslim 223]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]

The problem for QPR is that January transfers traditionally take a while to settle in. A goalscorer can make a difference, Ashton nearly did for us but even he took a few games to reach fitness and gel. I don''t know what the stats are for teams at the bottom who change managers after halfway but I doubt they''re good. I doubt Hughes is a short term fix and I reckon his contract will allow him to build again if they are relegated.

 

At this stage goal difference is a good indicator and on this the bottom five look in trouble. As they do being at least 5 points adrift. Wigan look doomed on -26. Blackburn on -12 have always been my favourites to get out of trouble but only if they keep the manager. Blackburn fans don''t deserve this and if they stay up will give no thanks to Keane. I think 2 of QPR, Bolton & Wolves will go down and it''s too close to call. But if pushed I think Bolton will get most points from the teams around them.

 

Wigan, QPR and Wolves for me.

[/quote]

 

OMG, I agree with you Nutty![:O]

[Shack Attack 0]

I think Blackburn might be OK provided they don''t lose any more players. They certainly seem to be behind the manager (their fans could probably learn from this) which is half the battle. Wigan look doomed and although they have survived by the skin of their teeth before I think this might be a season too far. QPR still don''t impress me and they will need to improve their squad further to get out of trouble. Bolton were helped greatly on Saturday be a weak Liverpool midfield and are a long way from turning things around. Wolves and West Brom are right in the mix but Everton and Fulham will pull away from danger. Villa are interesting (in terms of relegation. No team managed by McLeish could really be described as interesting) but are just about good enough to stay out of trouble. Swansea will finish well clear of the bottom three about two or three places behind us.

 

Wigan, QPR and Bolton for me.

[grantroederdisaster 0]

Wigan look doomed. They''ll only stay up by their fingertips but I doubt it!

 

Blackburn better than their results suggest but theres so much negativity around that club that getting positive results is very difficult. They''ll only stay up by a handful of points!

 

Wolves - Poorish team but have enough about them to cling on in!

 

Bolton - Awful season but they look like they might have turned the corner and look capable of getting out. Next Saturday will be a very tough game!

 

West Brom - Poor home form has handicaped them but if they can get 2-3 wins by the end of the season combined with good away form should see them clear.

 

QPR - Sheer quality should see them OK but lack of teamspirit will be a handicap that will see them not get too high up the table!

 

Sunderland - The Martin O Neil magic has revitilised them and they''ll be alright.

 

Swansea - If they continue home form they should be OK but if its drops then they could be in for a tense time!

 

Norwich City - Points total acrued so far will benefit them especially in hard run in and if present form and team spirit is maintained they should be OK.

 

Quite simply I''d say theres only one almost deadcert to go down and thats Wigan although I suspect they''ll have a good go and will be hard opponents at Carrow Road. Blackburn and Wolves will be hovering around the drop zone, and Bolton look like their getting better so may get clear. The rest look likely to stay up if they maintain current form but your not safe until its mathematically certain and we aren''t there yet!

[ROBFLECK 134]

Let us focus on ourselves and insure that WE stay up, don''t really care about the rest OTBC!

[drurys testamonials V 15 0]

Agreed ROBFLECK.That 17th place is not ours. Same with 18th, 19th or 20th.Not a clear-cut season to say who will go down though

[. 0]

Ahhh... I thought Stephen Fry had brought a couple of friends with him.My mistake.

[Rudolph Hucker 0]

For me Blackburn have too much and Bolton too. In the case of Bolton our next home game vs them is huge because I want us to get a couple more wins before I can begin to be comfortable about Norwich and in  this respect I am going to acknowledge that one mid-table side always hits the slippery slope and goes down and my nomination is Swansea.

 

So, it''s Wigan, Wolves and Swansea for me. Swansea have some tough home fixtures and it is their home record which is keeping them in the position they are in, also, in April they play relegation rivals and established Premiership teams treat those like cup finals.

[Petriix 3,143]

When it comes to this sort of question I always look at the projected points table on Football365.It''s interesting to take an average between the season form and the recent form to get a better estimate of final points:

Team	Position	Points	Projected Points	Projected Position
Manchester City	1	54	89	1
Manchester United	2	51	87	2
Tottenham Hotspur	3	46	76	3
Chelsea	4	41	68	4
Liverpool	7	35	59	5
Arsenal	5	36	58	6
Newcastle United	6	36	58	7
Sunderland	10	27	53	8
Stoke City	8	30	52	9
Norwich City	9	29	52	10
Aston Villa	11	27	47	11
Swansea City	13	26	47	12
Fulham	12	26	45	13
Everton	14	26	44	14
West Bromwich Albion	15	25	43	15
Bolton Wanderers	17	19	35	16
Blackburn Rovers	18	18	32	17
Queens Park Rangers	16	20	31	18
Wolverhampton Wndrs	19	18	28	19
Wigan Athletic	20	15	25	20

From the above table you can see that that the league is split into 5 groups of teams: the top 7 - who are certainly safe; the upper mid-table of Sunderland, Stoke and Norwich - who are projected to finish on 50+ points; the lower mid-table of 5 teams projected to end on 43-47 points; the relegation scrap between Bolton, Blackburn and QPR - projected to reach only 31-35 points; and the bottom 2 of Wolves and Wigan - who, let''s face it, are all but doomed.Now, if it was as simple as this then we may as well end the season now, but that would be no fun would it?It doesn''t happen every year that the bottom 5 clubs are so far adrift of the mid-table but it is usual for one or two of the teams who are struggling to go on a fantastic run and end up comfortably safe. It is also common that one or two teams who appeared safe in the mid-table go on a terrible run and end up getting sucked into the relegation fight. The only thing we can do is try to make an educated guess as to who this might happen to.With 16 games still to play, most

teams still have a similar balance of tough and easy(easier) fixtures.

Even QPR have 3 or 4 they could easily win out of their last 10 so I tend to ignore who might have the harder runin at this stage although a tough last few games can compound a bad run of form. There are, however, some interesting factors to be considered...Norwich and Swansea are operating on a significantly lower wage budget than the rest of the clubs in the league. This arguably suggests that they have lower quality or unproven individual players and that they might have difficulty bringing in new players who could turn things around should they get into trouble. This implies that both these teams are currently overachieving and are, therefore candidates to suddenly start losing (think the coyote from roadrunner). Obviously we all know that we have a fantastic manager, unrivaled team spirit and work ethic and a number of our players are a lot better than their current wages and reputations allude to. At the start of the season I wrote Swansea off in the same way that the ill-informed wrote Norwich off and I stand corrected as I believe they are too good to go down.Of the other teams outside the bottom 5 West Brom, Everton and Fulham seem the most likely to get into trouble with maybe West Brom''s lack of firepower being slightly more alarming than Everton''s apparent lack of financial backing. Fulham always seem to be just out of trouble but they could finally run out of luck this year.The bottom 5 are all in some trouble but I don''t doubt that one or two of them will put a run together and finish higher up. In the same way that Norwich and Swansea are overachieving, Bolton and Blackburn are underachieving as they have good players and are established premier league teams. I have enjoyed watching the pantomime at Blackburn but they have been picking up points recently and looked a good team when they came to CR and I can see them escaping easily. I am not sure about Bolton but it would not surprise me if they survived comfortably.QPR are another amusing example of a team which arguably should be better than they are. There are a number of things which set the alarm bells ringing including the personalities and lack of cohesion as a team also influenced by an imbalanced wage structure, the small ground - hard for them to create a hostile atmosphere, dodgy off field recent history, new manager at a difficult time, new chairman who apparently gets too involved... In any case, they are down there now and trying to buy their way out of trouble. I can see them being another Portsmouth if they go down but they could just about scrape survival if things start to go their way.The bottom two seem unlikely to survive but stranger things have happened. Either side could scrape 17th if enough other teams perform badly enough. However, I am convinced that Wigan are as good as down. They stayed up by the skin of their teeth last year thanks to N''zogbia''s goals (6 in 5 games was it?) then they sold him and did not replace him with anywhere near the same quality. Not sure whether Wolves have it in them or not but it is a big hole to get out of.My prediction:18 WBA19 Wolves20 Wigan

[ricardo 7,928]

WiganQPR  Wolves

Rikkkyyyy has spoken.

[calriv 0]

QPR, Wigan, Blackburn for me. Sticking with what I said at the start of the season: QPR will not do as well as Swansea or Norwich because they have a team of ''big'' names and I don''t think that they had a good team ethos or workrate. Sounds kind of stupid, but if you look at the players we''ve bought (excluding Howson) none were really given much attention. As with Swansea, with Vorm proving to be an inspired signing. As someone mentioned earlier, transfers take a while to settle into the tempo of the Premier League, so it might be a late surge from QPR but it might be too little, too late.

[chicken 0]

QPR quality? Am I missing something? They have Wright-Philips and Taraabt in terms of quality players but for me dont have quality players where they count: striker, center mid, center back and keeper.

Yeah there is a case for Barton but I think he is overated. You need consistancy to be classed as quality and he doesnt have that enough. You can carry a player with a dodgey temprement if he still gives the team more than his attitude takes. Its why Rooney can get away with it.

[Mister Chops 7]

[quote user="chicken"]QPR quality? Am I missing something? They have Wright-Philips and Taraabt in terms of quality players but for me dont have quality players where they count: striker, center mid, center back and keeper.

Yeah there is a case for Barton but I think he is overated. You need consistancy to be classed as quality and he doesnt have that enough. You can carry a player with a dodgey temprement if he still gives the team more than his attitude takes. Its why Rooney can get away with it.[/quote]Not sure what "quality" Wright-Phillips has, he has zero end product and is a worse crosser of the ball than Lee Croft. I''d rather have Stewart Downing than SWP, and I think he''s sh*t too.Anyway... for relegation it has to beWiganWolvesBlackburn

[Boyo 0]

Wolves

Bolton

Wigan

 

Wolves are always down there when it gets to squeaky bum time and I think if they get into a bad run now then their confidence will be zero.  They''re a team of battlers but will that team be up for fighting relegation over the final few games for yet another season?  I can''t see it.

 

As for Bolton I just can''t see them pulling themselves away.  I don''t think they''ve got a very good team and they try and play good football with players who don''t necessarily suit that style of play and when push comes to shove I can''t see them pulling through.

 

As for Wigan, well, its about time they went down.  I don''t mean that in a horrible way but every season they escape by the skin of thier teeth but not this season.

[sheffcanary 0]

Any of the bottom 5+Everton.

None have a goalscorer.

[ncfcstar 342]

[quote user="sheffcanary"]Any of the bottom 5+Everton.

None have a goalscorer.[/quote]Yakubu?  I must have mistaken him for someone else!Personally I think it will be Wigan, Wolves and BoltonBlackburn have actually been playing decent football all season, but they have a tendency, like our friends down the road, to leak late goals.  The whole Venkys situation is a farce, and poor old Steve Kean is taking the brunt of it, but I think they have enough to pull away.  Especially if Yakubu keeps scoring.Wigan - I admire Martinez for what he is trying to do, but the players he has at his disposal just aren''t good enough.  They have normally survived because they have had one excellent player.  Valencia, N''Zogbia et. al.  This season they are lacking it, especially as Rodallega is angling for a move.  I''m fed up with them being in the Prem anyway, if they had a good support then it would be different, but the truth is they are a rugby league town with a team that bought their way to success.  They are punching above their weight, and this season the KO blow will arrive.Wolves - They can''t win games, but this could be the key example of how we may be next season if we get complacent (which I don''t think Lambert will ever entertain by the way).  Their squad isn''t too dissimilar to last seasons, but they seem to have got in the mode of we were safe last season, so we''ll be OK now as well.  They will struggle to make much of an impression in the second half of the season, and although Kightly is now back to bring a bit of excitement on the wing, he could easily get injured again.Bolton - A funny one, because they should have the experience to survive.  Unfortunately for Bolton they do not have someone who will score the goals to keep them up.  They don''t seem to want Kevin Davies anymore, and David Ngog isn''t exactly a striker who will fill the fans with confidence.  They could easily escape, and I think it will go down to the last game of the season, but they struggle to draw games and that could be their undoing.As far as I see it - 18th - Bolton19th - Wolves20th - WiganThe first time since 2005 (I think) that all 3 promoted teams survive.

[norfolkbroadslim 223]

I am amazed at the number of people who think West Brom will go down.  They are 7 points above the relegation zone and have won the same number of games as us?[:^)]