Now 9 points clear of third place - time to clebrate?!

[norfolkbroadslim 225]

After Colchester''s draw tonight, we are now, effectively 9 points clear of third place, even if Colchester and Swindon win their games in hand, the most points they could be on now would be 66 points.  We also have a much better goal difference than Charlton, Colchester & Swindon, so effectively we are 10 points better off with only 11 games left to play.

Is it time to celebrate?  Surely being effectively 10 points ahead with 11 games left we are going up automatically.  One of Charlton, Colchester or Swindon would have to virtually gain a point a game on us for the last 11 games to overtake us.  That''s not going to happen is it?

I suppose some people want to reserve judgement until they see how the land lies after the next 3 games.

[Rudolph Hucker 0]

Can they win three more games than us from the remaining matches. It is ours to throw away.

[GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 2,035]

The only proviso I would add is that we must budget for a defeat at the Valley.   I must have been to that bloody place 6-7 times and have only seen a couple of draws. Don''t be suprised if we''re beaten there again

[Canary Wundaboy 1,423]

Leeds fans were celebrating earlier this season. Now cracking open the champers til it''s mathmatically certain that we''re goin'' up.

[Canary Wundaboy 1,423]

*not(damn lack of edit button.)

[The Young One 0]

Other teams losing or drawing around us brings down the total pts needed for automatic promotion, we can now afford to lose all of our next three games and still be in Automatic position that is a decent position to be in, obviously I can''t see that happening but it will take a bit of pressure off, others will drop pts as well.

[Salford 0]

Hopefull now we''ve got some breathing space we''ll start to see more relaxed, flowing football unlike some of the cagey results we''ve had recently.

[Bill 1,788]

I still stand by my assertin that it will be promtion at Orient and the title at Charlton

One to relive 1972 and the other to wipe away last years humilation.

Anyone in doubt should look at the fixtures. I think we will easily be able to secure 9/10 points from those six games. That''s way below what we have achieved so far.

A win at Orient will then give us 88 plus points. Presuming Charlton and Leeds achieve the same number of points over the same number of games then it will be impossible for Charlton to catch us.

We will go into the Charlton game knowing a win will see us as champions.

Out of those game Leeds have Southampton, Swindon, Millwall and us.

Charlton have Huddersfield, MK Dons, Colchester and Southampton.

Points will be dropped. And if we aren''t up by then Charlton play Leeds afterwards.

As to celebrating then best save it until Holt sticks the trophy up in the air. In the meantime enjoy the rest of an amazing season. We''ve still got three cracking games coming up.

[Jem 2]

[quote user="norfolkbroadslim"]

After Colchester''s draw tonight, we are now, effectively 9 points clear of third place, even if Colchester and Swindon win their games in hand, the most points they could be on now would be 66 points.  We also have a much better goal difference than Charlton, Colchester & Swindon, so effectively we are 10 points better off with only 11 games left to play.

Is it time to celebrate?  Surely being effectively 10 points ahead with 11 games left we are going up automatically.  One of Charlton, Colchester or Swindon would have to virtually gain a point a game on us for the last 11 games to overtake us.  That''s not going to happen is it?

I suppose some people want to reserve judgement until they see how the land lies after the next 3 games.

[/quote]

At the end of October Leeds were 11 points clear of us, 10 points at the end of November (with a game in hand!) & 11 points at the end of December. We turned that lead around in January and ended the month 3 points ahead of them though they had 2 games in hand. Tthe converse could also be true. Just as quickly as we gained our position it could be lost. I think we just need to be patient and hope we can continue this run.

Food for thought:

• Another 9 points would see us reach the average required for 2nd place in the last 6 years
• Another 14 points would see us reach the maximum required for 2nd place in the last 6 years
• Another 16½ points would see us reach the average required for 1st place in the last 6 years
• Another 23 points would see us reach the maximum required for 1st place in the last 6 years

Slowly slowly I feel confident we will reach our goal. It is within touching distance but not ther just yet.

[First Wizard 0]

Far too early to get cocky or celebrate...................just wait until its certain![:|]

[norfolkbroadslim 225]

[quote user="Jem"][quote user="norfolkbroadslim"]

After Colchester''s draw tonight, we are now, effectively 9 points clear of third place, even if Colchester and Swindon win their games in hand, the most points they could be on now would be 66 points.  We also have a much better goal difference than Charlton, Colchester & Swindon, so effectively we are 10 points better off with only 11 games left to play.

Is it time to celebrate?  Surely being effectively 10 points ahead with 11 games left we are going up automatically.  One of Charlton, Colchester or Swindon would have to virtually gain a point a game on us for the last 11 games to overtake us.  That''s not going to happen is it?

I suppose some people want to reserve judgement until they see how the land lies after the next 3 games.

[/quote]

At the end of October Leeds were 11 points clear of us, 10 points at the end of November (with a game in hand!) & 11 points at the end of December. We turned that lead around in January and ended the month 3 points ahead of them though they had 2 games in hand. Tthe converse could also be true. Just as quickly as we gained our position it could be lost. I think we just need to be patient and hope we can continue this run.

Food for thought:

• Another 9 points would see us reach the average required for 2nd place in the last 6 years

• Another 14 points would see us reach the maximum required for 2nd place in the last 6 years

• Another 16½ points would see us reach the average required for 1st place in the last 6 years

• Another 23 points would see us reach the maximum required for 1st place in the last 6 years

Slowly slowly I feel confident we will reach our goal. It is within touching distance but not ther just yet.

[/quote]

Well, yes, it could happen, but for it to happen not one but two sides would have to overtake us and games are fast running out.  Leeds would have to pick up form and overtake us and so would one of Colchester, Charlton or Swindon and we would also have to suffer a drastic loss in form over the remaining 11 games.

Not only this the remaining fixtures of the top 5 against eachother make the above even less likely -

Norwich - Swindon, Leeds, Charlton

Leeds - Norwich, Swindon, Charlton

Charlton - Colchester, Norwich, Leeds

Colchester - Swindon, Charlton

Swindon - Norwich, Leeds, Colchester

[norfolkbroadslim 225]

[quote user="First Wizard"]Far too early to get cocky or celebrate...................just wait until its certain![:|][/quote]

I''m not cocky, I think it is time to kiss that Delia poster on your bedroom wall[;)]

[JF 694]

[quote user="norfolkbroadslim"]

After Colchester''s draw tonight, we are now, effectively 9 points clear of third place, even if Colchester and Swindon win their games in hand, the most points they could be on now would be 66 points.  We also have a much better goal difference than Charlton, Colchester & Swindon, so effectively we are 10 points better off with only 11 games left to play.

Is it time to celebrate?  Surely being effectively 10 points ahead with 11 games left we are going up automatically.  One of Charlton, Colchester or Swindon would have to virtually gain a point a game on us for the last 11 games to overtake us.  That''s not going to happen is it?

I suppose some people want to reserve judgement until they see how the land lies after the next 3 games.

[/quote]It would take a massive slip up now for us to not go up. I think we are there but i aint gonna shout it about just yet, But a win saturday and other results go our way would seal it for me. I couldn''t see 2 teams catching us even if we had a poor run of form, Look at Leeds poor all year but still 2nd cos no one else is consistent enough to challenge.

[Snakepit Lass 0]

It would take a massive slip

LOL don''t curse us! Nobody is safe yet, we just have to keep our mind on the ball and think about winning every game. And hopefully we will get out of this poor league. Plus with lambet with us i think we could do well in the championship

[WeAreYellows49 0]

[quote user="First Wizard"]Far too early to get cocky or celebrate...................just wait until its certain![:|][/quote]

Totally agree mate far too early

[Big Duncs Bloody Shirt 0]

[quote user="First Wizard"]Far too early to get cocky or celebrate...................just wait until its certain![:|][/quote]

I agree Mr Wiz (caution must be a Lowestoft thing!) and I''d hate for us to appear cocky, and therefore ''Leeds like''. Although, for a reason that I''m not totally sure of, I have a great deal more faith in the class of 2010 than in some of their less than illustrious predecessors. I guess being in the third tier helps!

But ... we''re Norwich City ... and the one thing we excel at is major cock ups!

[ca 1]

I will celebrate when we''re mathematically certain of being promoted, then I''ll go to the bookies to pick up my winnings.

[Houston Canary 0]

[quote user="WeAreYellows49"]

[quote user="First Wizard"]Far too early to get cocky or celebrate...................just wait until its certain![:|][/quote]

Totally agree mate far too early

[/quote]

Killjoys!

[norfolkbroadslim 225]

Well, Swindon are losing again tonight.  Is it a 4 horse race?   Personally I don''t see Colchester as any kind of threat.

If it''s a 3 horse race between us, Leeds & Charlton, I don''t envy Charlton''s run in, some very tricky games, most of which they will need to win to overtake us -

Fixtures

Saturday, 13 March 2010 Coca-Cola Football League One Millwall v Charlton, 15:00 Saturday, 20 March 2010 Coca-Cola Football League One Charlton v Gillingham, 15:00 Saturday, 27 March 2010 Coca-Cola Football League One Huddersfield v Charlton, 15:00 Saturday, 3 April 2010 Coca-Cola Football League One MK Dons v Charlton, 15:00 Monday, 5 April 2010 Coca-Cola Football League One Charlton v Carlisle, 15:00 Saturday, 10 April 2010 Coca-Cola Football League One Southampton v Charlton, 15:00 Tuesday, 13 April 2010 Coca-Cola Football League One Charlton v Colchester, 19:45 Saturday, 17 April 2010 Coca-Cola Football League One Charlton v Norwich, 15:00 Saturday, 24 April 2010 Coca-Cola Football League One Exeter v Charlton, 15:00 Saturday, 1 May 2010 Coca-Cola Football League One Charlton v Leeds United, 15:00 Saturday, 8 May 2010 Coca-Cola Football League One Oldham v Charlton, 15:00

[Barry Brockes 157]

If I have my maths right it means that Charlton will have to get three more wins than we do from our remaining games. So, if we win five out of the last eleven, which I believe is the absolute minimum we will achieve, Charlton will have to win eight. Can you see that from the above fixtures? I can''t.

[ca 1]

Their next 4 games are all against clubs battling for a play off place, which is good news for us.

[Lambo 0]

While i''m not counting my chickens just yet, i''d be very very suprised if we don''t go up now, the chasing sides have to be damn near perfect between now and May. And over the course of the season nobody has shown they''re capable of it.

[Mason 47 1,920]

My dad recently said he thinks we''re up, noting the ''air of inevitability'' similar to the last time we got promoted.

Whilst obviously there''s still a lot of football to be played I can''t say hes wrong. I won''t be skipping down the street shouting it just yet, but I think we''re all fairly sure where we''re headed.

 

 

 

If there was ever a model example of how to get fate to smack you in the face, this is it.

[lobster catcher 0]

We have lost 6 all season,what makes you think we will lose 6 of the last 11.We are going up we are going up we are going up we are going up

[First Wizard 0]

Jeez! there''s 33 points to still play for, and you say I''m mad.

This ain''t over yet!

[JF 694]

[quote user="First Wizard"]

Jeez! there''s 33 points to still play for, and you say I''m mad.

This ain''t over yet!

[/quote] The fat lady isn''t signing but she is clearing her throat though! All we have to do is match Charlton point for point for the rest of the season we can even lose a couple more than them. I really can''t see us falling out of the top 2 and i think if most people were being honest they think the same.

[corbs 0]

Obviously to early, but if I look at Newcastle I would say they are up, then I look at us and we are equally well placed. Difference? I support us, and caution takes over. I will not be celebrating until it is mathematical!

[Drazen Muzinic 1,502]

I know I posted this on the FFT article thread but it fits better on this one...

I don''t want to pi55 on anybody''s chips but lets not forget the 2001-02 season when we met (and beat) Wolves in the Div 1 play-offs.

They were top with 9 matches to play, having won 10 of their last 11 games and were miles ahead of the play-offs.

They won just 2 more games and finshed third behind West Brom.

They took years to live it down too after lots of ''we''ll never play you again''-type taunting of the Baggies.

I remember we gave them loads of pi55-taking at Molineux in the play-off semi too.

OK, this is an extreme example but it can happen...let''s make really certain before we celebrate, eh?