astro 360 Posted March 1 Twelve games to go and to me, it looks like a six-way race for the final two spots. We have 52 points and I think we need nine wins to be honest. That will give us 79 points. However our away form is a worrying factor - we really need to start winning some of those. How many points do posters think we will need, and will we get them? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cambridgeshire canary 6,732 Posted March 1 70 to be in the top six. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
JUBWICKS75 48 Posted March 1 You should be safe with what you have !! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Fen Canary 829 Posted March 1 Another 7 wins should get us there or thereabouts I think, along with a couple of draws 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
astro 360 Posted March 1 1 hour ago, cambridgeshire canary said: 70 to be in the top six. Do you really think that will be enough? Seems a bit low to me. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
astro 360 Posted March 1 59 minutes ago, Besthorpe-48 said: 74 A good shout - that means we’ll need the equivalent of seven wins and a draw I believe. I think that’s doable, but will it be enough? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,764 Posted March 1 (edited) Only needed 68 last season, ridiculously low in a very poor league. Teams were falling over each other to not get into the playoffs, it was almost harder not to. Edited March 1 by GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Google Bot 3,278 Posted March 1 (edited) I think it could be at 76 this season, Basically need to average 2 pts/game. So win the home games and don't lose away. Edited March 1 by Google Bot 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
astro 360 Posted March 1 Just now, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said: Only needed 68 last season, ridiculously low in a very poor league. Teams were falling over each other to not got into the playoffs, it was almost harder not to. A few teams have hit their stride now this season though I feel - do you think 68 will be enough? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,764 Posted March 1 1 hour ago, astro said: A few teams have hit their stride now this season though I feel - do you think 68 will be enough? Not this season ,no Last season was anopen goal and opportunity to do it. Even if we were just 'ok' in the last 10 games as opposed to sh!t ,we wouldve finished 6th. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Capt. Pants 4,245 Posted March 2 If Hull continue on their current trajectory we'll need about 74. Injuries haven't helped and not strengthening the squad in January have left us pretty stretched. Coventry also have injuries so it's not just us. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
......and Smith must score. 1,345 Posted March 2 12 hours ago, Google Bot said: I think it could be at 76 this season, Basically need to average 2 pts/game. So win the home games and don't lose away. Doesn’t really matter which combination achieves the points but winning at home does create a better atmosphere. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mutley 76 Posted March 2 The historical bench mark is around 75 points I believe for sixth place and I think that will be needed. Sadly WBA look to be securing the fifth spot, their home form should see them keep that so for me its only one place up for grabs. Being optimistic I predicted that our last 13 games c/would result in us finishing with 78 points. I got the first game correct with a draw at Blackburn. A Blackburn Draw Correct! H Sunderland Win ???? A Boro Lose H Rotherham Win A Stoke Win H Plymouth Win A Leicester Lose H 1p5wich Draw A Sheff Wed Draw A Preston Win H Bristol City Win H Swansea Win A Birmingham Win So eight wins and two draws from here on in at over two points per game. I must have been in a very positive frame (especially the win at Preston) when I did this. What do you think? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
dylanisabaddog 4,931 Posted March 2 (edited) There are 4 teams averaging 2 points a game or more which is very unusual and means there are less points available across the rest of the division. 74 should definitely do it, 72 may just be enough. Keep everyone important fit from now on and we should do it. Hull are our closest rivals but I wouldn't swap their run in for ours Edited March 2 by dylanisabaddog Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
DraytonBoy 152 Posted March 2 Mutley's predictions mean a big uptick in the away form which is not good enough, I think Hull's remaining fixtures are much tougher so it could well be very close, don't discount Preston either especially if they win today. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
A K Narey 85 Posted March 2 (edited) How many points do we need? I imagine the answer is 2 more than we get... Edited March 2 by A K Narey Typo! Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mutley 76 Posted March 2 9 hours ago, Mutley said: The historical bench mark is around 75 points I believe for sixth place and I think that will be needed. Sadly WBA look to be securing the fifth spot, their home form should see them keep that so for me its only one place up for grabs. Being optimistic I predicted that our last 13 games c/would result in us finishing with 78 points. I got the first game correct with a draw at Blackburn. A Blackburn Draw Correct! H Sunderland Win Correct! QA Boro Lose H Rotherham Win A Stoke Win H Plymouth Win A Leicester Lose H 1p5wich Draw A Sheff Wed Draw A Preston Win H Bristol City Win H Swansea Win A Birmingham Win So eight wins and two draws from here on in at over two points per game. I must have been in a very positive frame (especially the win at Preston) when I did this. What do you think? 2 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Robert N. LiM 4,378 Posted March 4 Good response to that question here. Contains the terrible detail that we have exactly the same number of points as we had at this stage last season... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
astro 360 Posted March 4 1 hour ago, Robert N. LiM said: Good response to that question here. Contains the terrible detail that we have exactly the same number of points as we had at this stage last season... Heavens! I’m not so confident now! 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Robert N. LiM 4,378 Posted March 4 21 minutes ago, astro said: Heavens! I’m not so confident now! If it makes you feel any better he doesn't think we'll need 79 points. He's guessing 74, or possibly fewer. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Rich T The Biscuit 562 Posted March 4 We'll scrape in to the 6th spot, the binners will finish 3rd, we'll beat them over 2 legs, although will probably be over after the first leg and then we'll win the final again. I'm sure I saw a binner lurking on this thread 😉 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cornish sam 954 Posted March 4 24 minutes ago, Rich T The Biscuit said: We'll scrape in to the 6th spot, the binners will finish 3rd, we'll beat them over 2 legs, although will probably be over after the first leg and then we'll win the final again. I'm sure I saw a binner lurking on this thread 😉 Oddly enough that's pretty much what I see happening. A faltering Southampton side being beaten in the final... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
repman 635 Posted March 4 Thought I'd have a look at the run in for each team by taking the average position of everyone they face. I did both the current league table and the table sorted by xG. Went all the way down to Middlesbrough, didn't do WBA as I think they're good for one of the spots. Team - League avg position/xG avg position Norwich - 14.36/14.36 Hull - 11.73/11.09 Preston - 13.73/13.45 Coventry - 12.64/12.73 Sunderland - 11.45/10.91 Cardiff - 13.00/11.91 Watford - 8.73/9.27 Bristol C - 12.73/13.09 Middlesbrough - 11.55/12.18 So overall we seem to have the 'easiest' run in on both counts, the fact ours came out exactly the same is probably a massive coincidence but with most there's not too much deviation either way. Every team on this list has to play at least 2 of the top 4, some have to play 3 but none have got to play them all. In terms of the xG table our schedule gets even easier after Middlesbrough (who are 5th in that), after that we don't play another side in the top half of it except the Leicester & Ipswich games back to back. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
cornish sam 954 Posted March 4 30 minutes ago, repman said: Thought I'd have a look at the run in for each team by taking the average position of everyone they face. I did both the current league table and the table sorted by xG. Went all the way down to Middlesbrough, didn't do WBA as I think they're good for one of the spots. Team - League avg position/xG avg position Norwich - 14.36/14.36 Hull - 11.73/11.09 Preston - 13.73/13.45 Coventry - 12.64/12.73 Sunderland - 11.45/10.91 Cardiff - 13.00/11.91 Watford - 8.73/9.27 Bristol C - 12.73/13.09 Middlesbrough - 11.55/12.18 So overall we seem to have the 'easiest' run in on both counts, the fact ours came out exactly the same is probably a massive coincidence but with most there's not too much deviation either way. Every team on this list has to play at least 2 of the top 4, some have to play 3 but none have got to play them all. In terms of the xG table our schedule gets even easier after Middlesbrough (who are 5th in that), after that we don't play another side in the top half of it except the Leicester & Ipswich games back to back. https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england2&tid=10 This is quite an interesting analysis of it as well which works out the average PPG of the opponents when they are playing home or away and again, we have a markedly easier run in than Hull without taking into account how far our averages are taken down by the early season form when we were missing gunn, Barnes and sarge.... 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Robert N. LiM 4,378 Posted March 4 26 minutes ago, cornish sam said: https://www.soccerstats.com/table.asp?league=england2&tid=10 This is quite an interesting analysis of it as well which works out the average PPG of the opponents when they are playing home or away and again, we have a markedly easier run in than Hull without taking into account how far our averages are taken down by the early season form when we were missing gunn, Barnes and sarge.... that's interesting, cheers. Also has the reassuring suggestion that the binners' run-in is tougher than Leeds'... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Mutley 76 Posted March 7 The historical bench mark is around 75 points I believe for sixth place and I think that will be needed. Sadly WBA look to be securing the fifth spot, their home form should see them keep that so for me its only one place up for grabs. Being optimistic I predicted that our last 13 games c/would result in us finishing with 78 points. Just bumping this up again. My first three predictions all correct, lets hope this pattern continues: A Blackburn Draw Correct! H Sunderland Win Correct! A Boro Lose Very sadly correct H Rotherham Win A Stoke Win H Plymouth Win A Leicester Lose H 1p5wich Draw A Sheff Wed Draw A Preston Win H Bristol City Win H Swansea Win A Birmingham Win So eight wins and two draws from here on in at over two points per game. I must have been in a very positive frame (especially the win at Preston) when I did this. What do you think? 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Capt. Pants 4,245 Posted March 7 I reckon we'll get another 15 pts as we won't win all our home games. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Robert N. LiM 4,378 Posted March 7 26 minutes ago, Mutley said: H Rotherham Win A Stoke Win H Plymouth Win A Leicester Lose H 1p5wich Draw This list has made me feel a little bit better about the prospect of losing Sainz for four or five games. Surely we ought to have enough to get points from the first three without him - maybe not nine but hopefully seven. And you'd have to say that those two games against Leicester and the binners are tough with or without him, we wouldn't have wanted to pin our play-off hopes on getting more than a couple of points from those games anyway. Fire up John Cleese: Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Creedence Clearwater Couto 1,280 Posted March 7 We need to win 7 of the last 10 including beating PNE and I think we’ll sneak in. If it’s more than that, we won’t get it IMO anyway. So just focus on winning 7. 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
