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Apologising To David Wagner

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I'll never forgive him if the scum come to city and take 3 points away from us. Nah joking he's doing alright old dave 

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On 19/02/2024 at 19:06, nutty nigel said:

34 points from the last 18 is 87 points over the season.

its clearly not enough. We’re entitled to expect form that would give 100 points and 100 goals.

Booooo!

Everyone out…

 

But it isn’t over the season is it? It hasn’t happened, it’s easy to say it’s this or that but the fact is we are where we are, the table doesn’t lie and the whole of Wagner tenure has been poor really. We lost 7 in 9 earlier in the season, so what does that turn out over 46 games? You can twist stats to back up what you say any way you want to but the fact is we haven’t won enough games under Wagner at all. 

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48 minutes ago, TheBaldOne66 said:

But it isn’t over the season is it? It hasn’t happened, it’s easy to say it’s this or that but the fact is we are where we are, the table doesn’t lie and the whole of Wagner tenure has been poor really. We lost 7 in 9 earlier in the season, so what does that turn out over 46 games? You can twist stats to back up what you say any way you want to but the fact is we haven’t won enough games under Wagner at all. 

Well if folk stop having ridiculous expectations either way and treat each match on it's own merits that would suit me just fine. How about you?

However I think it's of more use to consider form over the most recent 18 games than 10 games from four months ago...

Edited by nutty nigel
Should know better but added it anyway...
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36 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

Well if folk stop having ridiculous expectations either way and treat each match on it's own merits that would suit me just fine. How about you?

However I think it's of more use to consider form over the most recent 18 games than 10 games from four months ago...

So when this run comes to an end four months later we can forget about it then and no looking at the big picture ?

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Let’s be honest, we are where we are because this squad isn’t great, the old pros are coming to the end of their days, the best playing days way behind them!

We’re reliant on the prospects coming through and they have Sargent, Sainz, Sara, Numez, Rowe all excellent this season. McLean exceptional this year and coming from me one of his biggest critics (his consistency has always been questionable, not this season).

The problems start again end of this season! Are we likely to go up? No not really Leeds or Southampton are very much my two alongside Leicester, but nothings certain in this world bar Death! So come May Sara, Sargent, Rowe all will want to play top flight and no doubt push for a move, the club will need to recoup some coffers and will happily move these players on at profit! So we go again, who’s next up? Fisher, Warner, Thompkinson, Kamara, Sprigette or someone else? Lots of prospects.  Is that the best we can hope for, can we actually build on our better players and keep them? We shall see! But the circle keeps going round, we just need the right coach and owner to break it!

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39 minutes ago, TIL 1010 said:

So when this run comes to an end four months later we can forget about it then and no looking at the big picture ?

Yes you can. It’s called current form. They print tables. But you won’t find a table for a random 10 game run from months ago…

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12 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

Yes you can. It’s called current form. They print tables. But you won’t find a table for a random 10 game run from months ago…

Isn’t the important form over 46 games in a season? The rest is just stats to argue about?

What is success this season? Top ten? Where do we go from there? Keep Wagner? Sell our most valuable players and build again? Is success the amount of season tickets sold? Profit made or loss made having a go! Argh football who really needs it? 😉

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2 hours ago, Ward 3 said:

I'll never forgive him if the scum come to city and take 3 points away from us. Nah joking he's doing alright old dave 

You might, but there will be 1000s on forums, social media and the terraces that won't. It's only one game though and likely to be more crucial to them than us.

Current form doesn't really count for a lot in the Championship where any team can beat (or drop points) against anyone. The old cliche of take each game as it comes is even more relevant than ever. I suspect there will be a few twists and turns yet, but we lack depth in wide positions thanks to Rowe's injury so it will be very difficult.

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1 hour ago, nutty nigel said:

Yes you can. It’s called current form. They print tables. But you won’t find a table for a random 10 game run from months ago…

So that run earlier in the season was random form not current form ?

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1 hour ago, TIL 1010 said:

So that run earlier in the season was random form not current form ?

I can guarantee had the form from the last games been swapped around with the bad run those currently pointing to form would be pointing back! It’s just how people perceive the club, for me it’s about 46 games from start to finish of the season! We will probably finish top 10 might make top 6 but I doubt it, but who knows! Wagner is here till the end of the season and we could well carry on gaining enough points.

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3 hours ago, nutty nigel said:

Yes you can. It’s called current form. They print tables. But you won’t find a table for a random 10 game run from months ago…

You're obviously not looking hard enough... 

1407737621_Screenshot_20240221_171355_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.d42d6bbeaffdda177818dece5affbf9b.jpg

Anyway the point remains that, as a whole, Wagner's tenure has been a bit of a disappointment because we're in a slightly worse position than when he joined. However it's entirely relevant to say that recent form shows a significant improvement. 

I don't accept that it's all down to injuries. Sargent was injured before the transfer window closed but suitable backup wasn't brought in and, as rightly pointed out, the tactics we employed really didn't suit the players who were available. 

The hope is that the months of training have finally taken root throughout the squad and they are now more capable of making the system work. The fear is that it's all rather tenuous and it won't take much to set us back on another awful run of form. At this point no one knows which way it will go and, unfortunately, even if we can sustain the recent form, it's unlikely that we'll be able to do enough to win the playoffs. 

Then we're on to worrying about next season... 

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58 minutes ago, Petriix said:

You're obviously not looking hard enough... 

1407737621_Screenshot_20240221_171355_SamsungInternet.thumb.jpg.d42d6bbeaffdda177818dece5affbf9b.jpg

Anyway the point remains that, as a whole, Wagner's tenure has been a bit of a disappointment because we're in a slightly worse position than when he joined. However it's entirely relevant to say that recent form shows a significant improvement. 

I don't accept that it's all down to injuries. Sargent was injured before the transfer window closed but suitable backup wasn't brought in and, as rightly pointed out, the tactics we employed really didn't suit the players who were available. 

The hope is that the months of training have finally taken root throughout the squad and they are now more capable of making the system work. The fear is that it's all rather tenuous and it won't take much to set us back on another awful run of form. At this point no one knows which way it will go and, unfortunately, even if we can sustain the recent form, it's unlikely that we'll be able to do enough to win the playoffs. 

Then we're on to worrying about next season... 

Exactly this. Wagner has done well to deliver some good results but because the vast majority of the performances, even during this recent run, have been very questionable he has yet to prove that he or his coaches have the ability to adapt tactically to a situation, whether that involves injuries, suspensions, or an opponents way of playing.

The games from now to the end of the season will show us. Apart from away games at Boro and Leicester they are all games we should get something out of. If we don't make the playoffs from here, he will have no more excuses.

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Well that’s a rummun old current form table. Some have played 9, some 10 and some 11. But I guess it does really underline how good that win was last weekend against high flying Cardiff…

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People forget it took Farke a season (and the addition of Buendia) to get the team playing well, something Wagner has now had. In fact their first 46 games have produced a fairly similar results, 60 points for Farke vs 64 for Wagner (Wagner has now had 52 matches, yielding 77 points) although Farke had the benefit of a whole preseason as opposed to joining half way through the campaign. The teams form has improved massively now Wagner has his first choice players back so I simply don’t understand the animosity 

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We don't control games a la Farke though. It's just not convincing and we always look to be one stupud mistake away from dropping points. Fair to say that probably applies to most in this division but how many chances do we gift the opposition per game?!  

As you say, his record is now picking up and long may that continue. A good couple of spankings and clean sheets would certainly help his cause further 

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4 minutes ago, Canario said:

We don't control games a la Farke though. It's just not convincing and we always look to be one stupud mistake away from dropping points. Fair to say that probably applies to most in this division but how many chances do we gift the opposition per game?!  

As you say, his record is now picking up and long may that continue. A good couple of spankings and clean sheets would certainly help his cause further 

That first season under Farke was just as poor and inconsistent though, with a similar number of appalling defensive lapses. We were better at keeping possession under Farke in the first year, but rather toothless in attack from memory. We were so ponderous going forward that the opposition had 10 men back behind the ball before we’d got anywhere near the halfway line. Under Wagner we’re much more dangerous with the ball but surrender possession much more easily

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It must be said that just how bad that run was really hits home when you look at the current table and consider what a difference half a dozen extra points across those games would have made to us.

I know it’s all ifs, buts and maybes but if Wagner had just been a little bit more adaptable and able to stem the tide of losses we would be pretty comfortably in the playoff positions. 

Edited by Jim Smith
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21 hours ago, nutty nigel said:

We ain’t played 46 games yet…

:classic_ninja:

But YOU mentioned that’s 87 points over a season didn’t you? A classic example of twisting things to suit your agenda, which you are moaning about others doing? 
 

You try to say it could be that but dismiss what’s happened earlier in the season as it doesn’t fit with the agenda does it?

 

Facts are we are where we are because as I said we haven’t won enough games this season under Wagner, you say we could get 87 points over a season but say take it a game at a time, which is it to be? 
 

The table doesn’t lie does it. 

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@TheBaldOne66  We’re never going to agree on anything except the table after 46 games. Which will be a true reflection on our season. So let’s shut down all discussion between us about the league table until May when it’s finalised. Then we have total harmony. So serene and peaceful….

For those who do like to look at league tables during the season I still think the most recent 18 games are a more realistic vision of where we are now than a random 10 games four months ago. @Petriix can you conjure up a table for the last 18 like your 10 game one?

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10 hours ago, Fen Canary said:

That first season under Farke was just as poor and inconsistent though, with a similar number of appalling defensive lapses. We were better at keeping possession under Farke in the first year, but rather toothless in attack from memory. We were so ponderous going forward that the opposition had 10 men back behind the ball before we’d got anywhere near the halfway line. Under Wagner we’re much more dangerous with the ball but surrender possession much more easily

True. Remember a lot of defensive mistakes under Farke as well. We were always able to score one more or the opposition didn't take advantage of them. 

It's a big problem once up though. PL sides do not miss from those mistakes. So if we make 3/4 ridiculous errors in the champs, we get punished maybe once. At PL level it is the 3 or 4 times.  Why tighter,more physical sides do better once up. They dont make so many errors at the back.  Hughton-esque football is not something I want to watch but it's the way to survive up there. Keep it tight.nick the occasional 1-0 

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8 minutes ago, Canario said:

True. Remember a lot of defensive mistakes under Farke as well. We were always able to score one more or the opposition didn't take advantage of them. 

It's a big problem once up though. PL sides do not miss from those mistakes. So if we make 3/4 ridiculous errors in the champs, we get punished maybe once. At PL level it is the 3 or 4 times.  Why tighter,more physical sides do better once up. They dont make so many errors at the back.  Hughton-esque football is not something I want to watch but it's the way to survive up there. Keep it tight.nick the occasional 1-0 

Didn't do too well for us in our relegation season under him. Or for Brighton. They sacked him after surviving by the skin of their teeth.

Edited by non-scoring strikers

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49 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

@TheBaldOne66  We’re never going to agree on anything except the table after 46 games. Which will be a true reflection on our season. So let’s shut down all discussion between us about the league table until May when it’s finalised. Then we have total harmony. So serene and peaceful….

For those who do like to look at league tables during the season I still think the most recent 18 games are a more realistic vision of where we are now than a random 10 games four months ago. @Petriix can you conjure up a table for the last 18 like your 10 game one?

A random ten games you say which happens to be getting on for a quarter of a season. That is some sizeable random selection.

Edited by TIL 1010

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38 minutes ago, TIL 1010 said:

A random ten games you say which happens to be getting on for a quarter of a season. That is some sizeable random selection.

So why is ten games from four months ago more important than the most recent 18 games which is wayyyy more than a quarter of the season? Help me out and let love shine a light on the answer...

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# Club   W D L Goals +/- Pts
1 Leeds United Leeds   18 13 2 3 36:11 25 41
2 Southampton FC Southampton   18 12 4 2 39:15 24 40
3 Leicester City Leicester   18 12 3 3 40:17 23 39
4 Coventry City Coventry 18 10 6 2 32:16 16 36
5 Norwich City Norwich 18 10 4 4 32:20 12 34
6 Ipswich Town Ipswich   18 9 6 3 32:25 7 33
7 Hull City Hull City 18 10 1 7 28:23 5 31
8 West Bromwich Albion West Brom 18 9 2 7 23:16 7 29
9 Watford FC Watford 18 7 5 6 31:27 4 26
10 Sunderland AFC Sunderland 18 7 3 8 21:21 0 24
11 Preston North End Preston 18 7 3 8 23:29 -6 24
12 Queens Park Rangers QPR 18 6 5 7 19:17 2 23
13 Middlesbrough FC Middlesbrough 17 7 2 8 25:24 1 23
14 Bristol City Bristol City 18 6 5 7 22:21 1 23
15 Sheffield Wednesday Sheff Wed   18 7 2 9 19:29 -10 23
16 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth  English 3rd tier champion 22/23 18 5 6 7 25:32 -7 21
17 Huddersfield Town Huddersfield 18 4 7 7 24:27 -3 19
18 Birmingham City Birmingham 17 5 4 8 19:29 -10 19
19 Swansea City Swansea 18 4 5 9 21:36 -15 17
20 Cardiff City Cardiff 18 5 2 11 14:31 -17 17
21 Blackburn Rovers Blackburn 18 4 4 10 24:35 -11 16
22 Millwall FC Millwall 18 4 4 10 16:27 -11 16
23 Stoke City Stoke City 18 3 6 9 14:28 -14 15
24 Rotherham United Rotherham 18 1 5 12 14:37 -23 8

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25 minutes ago, nutty nigel said:

So why is ten games from four months ago more important than the most recent 18 games which is wayyyy more than a quarter of the season? Help me out and let love shine a light on the answer...

Nutty - if it helps to solve this highly complicated and technical problem, can I shine some light on Saturday's entertaining performance. I think Wagner was utterly cheesed off with all the criticism and comments etc and his pre-match talk was simply "forget all my usual coaching and tactical advice and just go out and express yourselves, play simple direct football, coupled with a bit of pace". I suppose it helped a bit in that Cardiff would have probably struggled against a local Sunday League Club - or perhaps we just made them look like that !!!!

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1 hour ago, TIL 1010 said:

A random ten games you say which happens to be getting on for a quarter of a season. That is some sizeable random selection.

Selecting a particular range you know is bad just to prove a point is an abuse of statistics. You're deliberately introducing a bias by discounting samples that fall outside your otherwise arbitrary selection. 

Choosing exactly the last 18 games is probably a little dodgy too (why exactly 18 and not say 20?), but at least we're considering the most recent (a more useful predictor of future performance) and the sample size is larger. 

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1 hour ago, The Bunny said:

Selecting a particular range you know is bad just to prove a point is an abuse of statistics. You're deliberately introducing a bias by discounting samples that fall outside your otherwise arbitrary selection. 

Choosing exactly the last 18 games is probably a little dodgy too (why exactly 18 and not say 20?), but at least we're considering the most recent (a more useful predictor of future performance) and the sample size is larger. 

Not really, as long as you explain the context i.e. the worst period in our recent history in comparison to the best etc. Obviously the table I shared above was a bit of a joke. It's a spectacular coincidence that our awful run ended when Webber left... but even the most recent good run is only playoff form. Which I suppose is why we're outside the playoffs when you take the season as a whole. 

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2 hours ago, nutty nigel said:

So why is ten games from four months ago more important than the most recent 18 games which is wayyyy more than a quarter of the season? Help me out and let love shine a light on the answer...

It has been said on here that any team is only as good as its last game, but as our last game was terrific that doesn't apply.

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2 hours ago, nutty nigel said:
# Club   W D L Goals +/- Pts
1 Leeds United Leeds   18 13 2 3 36:11 25 41
2 Southampton FC Southampton   18 12 4 2 39:15 24 40
3 Leicester City Leicester   18 12 3 3 40:17 23 39
4 Coventry City Coventry 18 10 6 2 32:16 16 36
5 Norwich City Norwich 18 10 4 4 32:20 12 34
6 Ipswich Town Ipswich   18 9 6 3 32:25 7 33
7 Hull City Hull City 18 10 1 7 28:23 5 31
8 West Bromwich Albion West Brom 18 9 2 7 23:16 7 29
9 Watford FC Watford 18 7 5 6 31:27 4 26
10 Sunderland AFC Sunderland 18 7 3 8 21:21 0 24
11 Preston North End Preston 18 7 3 8 23:29 -6 24
12 Queens Park Rangers QPR 18 6 5 7 19:17 2 23
13 Middlesbrough FC Middlesbrough 17 7 2 8 25:24 1 23
14 Bristol City Bristol City 18 6 5 7 22:21 1 23
15 Sheffield Wednesday Sheff Wed   18 7 2 9 19:29 -10 23
16 Plymouth Argyle Plymouth  English 3rd tier champion 22/23 18 5 6 7 25:32 -7 21
17 Huddersfield Town Huddersfield 18 4 7 7 24:27 -3 19
18 Birmingham City Birmingham 17 5 4 8 19:29 -10 19
19 Swansea City Swansea 18 4 5 9 21:36 -15 17
20 Cardiff City Cardiff 18 5 2 11 14:31 -17 17
21 Blackburn Rovers Blackburn 18 4 4 10 24:35 -11 16
22 Millwall FC Millwall 18 4 4 10 16:27 -11 16
23 Stoke City Stoke City 18 3 6 9 14:28 -14 15
24 Rotherham United Rotherham 18 1 5 12 14:37 -23 8

Isn’t a true reflection the current table? Not some random ten games four months back or most recent 18 games! Surely the current table is the only way to really judge our true form!

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