Players or tactics?

[The Great Mass Debater 1,090]

I havent watched us this season. Rather fallen out of love with football as a whole and decided to take a break from actively following football. From my perspective Wagner had a good start and it seemed like all was going to be rosy as his philosophy had been embedded with a good pre-season and Wagner now had the types of players he wanted for his system.

Then came the slump.

It was said of Bielsa that his teams, like Wagner's, needed the right players to cope with the demands of the system, and that ultimately his teams collapse and run out of steam, somewhat of an inevitibility about the final destination of his tenures.

So is this what has happened with Wagner? A promising start being merely a false dawn as his tactics are fundamentally flawed? That it was only a matter of time before teams worked out how to exploit the weaknesses in the system - the idea of a manager getting 'found out'.

Or does he not have the players?

Farke didnt have the players at Premier League level to make his type of football work. Great in the Championship but not feasible in the Premier League without the calibre of player to make it work. So are Wagner's tactics sound but he doesnt have the right players for it?

It is notable that the slump started when we lost Barnes and Sargent. If they had been available, might things have been different? Or has Wagner been given lemons again and this is merely showing through?

Its an honest question because I genuinely dont know and this is me asking people who have actually been watching the football. Wagner does have a record. Not only did he get Huddersfield promoted, he also kept them up. So he has had a level of success in English football, that we were clearly hoping he could replicate here. So he is not a busted flush.

What is the difference between his success at Huddersfield and how it is going here? Presumably he had the same philosophy at Huddersfield. Why isnt it proving successful with us? Did he have players that were able to make his tactics work when at Huddersfield?

Edited November 9, 2023 by The Great Mass Debater

[City 101 83]

Players are ****, I don't think a new manager will get much more out of them .

[Grando 261]

Both, to a certain extent. But probably more the inflexible tactics.

[Dean Coneys boots 1,400]

Yes. Both 

[ZLF 274]

Tactics are causing individual errors which is the biggest driver, compounded by poor performances exacercerbated by a lack of defensive shield in front of aging cbs.

[S_81 802]

Poor players. Poor tactics. 

[Deptford Yellow 258]

Players and tactics, but mainly tactics (and then there's … recruitment…)

[K Lo 224]

I've said it before, it seems to be the defensive side of things that's letting us down.
With the goals we've scored (3rd highest), we should be top 6 or so.

[Google Bot 3,278]

Injuries for me, which I guess means players.

Most of us said during pre-season that the squad is fine until you look beyond the starting 11 and we've had to play with second string players for most of the season now.   You only have to look at the dip in form to how it corresponded with Sarge being injured, closely followed by Barnes, no surprise as they are both key players - so the difference is night and day to me.

Not easy positions to cover, and on top of that we had Sainz who was very much part of the plan, injured before the season started.  And we've been without Gunn currently - we've lost all 4 since he went off injured at Leeds (Which we were winning at the time).

[Fen Canary 829]

He’s been very unlucky with injuries, not many teams in this division can afford the wages to have the depth to cope with losing both first choice strikers, keeper snd centre half amongst others.

However Wagner certainly hasn’t helped his cause by stubbornly refusing to change the tactics even when it clearly doesn’t suit the players he has left to pick from. Ironically Farke at times displayed the exact same tendencies of doggedly sticking to his preferred style, but he had Emi and Pukki to dig us out of a hole even when it didn’t work as planned. We simply don’t have that quality now, and to be honest players of that calibre don’t come around too often in the 2nd tier 

[By Hook or Ian crook 917]

What I found very interesting was the analysis that Gary O’Neil did on sky sports recently of his own team. He said every manager goes into a club with their own philosophy on how football should be played but he then spoke about how he has to be a realist and make best use of his disposal. He said he has to adapt how he wants football to be played to suit what he’s working with. 
 

For me Wagner is too rigid on how he wants his teams to play working with idealism and not pragmatism. 3 injuries should not have such a dramatic impact on how a side does at this level. I can not think of any managers, who would be worth their weight in salt, persisting with the same back 4 players time and time again when given their record. 
 

I find his Subs baffling. Constantly taking off Rowe our main goal threat when we are behind. He doesn’t reward players who come in and do well with more starts or game time such as Fisher at Sunderland or Warner and Sainz v Fulham. He flat out refuses to play Danny Batth which makes no sense. 
 

Some of our players are absolutely sub standard for this division however the group is far more talented than 19th or whatever it is we are now. 

[hertfordyellow 460]

His teams defend from the front and Sargent in particular is very good at this. Barnes is clever and orchestrated the press as well. If both don’t get injured then we are in the playoffs right now imo.

That said, you are never going to be injury free and to not have the ability to adjust is on Wagner. I understand the criticism of recruitment. The last minute signings aren’t much help to how Wagner plays.

[Peregrine Shorts 315]

mostly tactics and in-game management, particularly bizarre substitutions

[DraytonBoy 152]

It's a mixture of both, the squad depth isn't enough to cope with injuries to key players but at the same time Wagner's tactics and substitutions are poor even when the team is winning.

[ZLF 274]

His teams may defend from the front but that csn not stop the ball getting to the final third at some stage, it feels like we have no defensive tactic once the press is breached, and more fatally not attempt to solve such a fatal flaw.

as for goals scored 13 in first 4 games masks 13 in the subsequent 11.  Sargent alone can't be a saviour at both ends...  I have only ever seen huckerby have such an impact, and he isn't that much of an impact player for us

 

[Nexus_Canary 1,019]

Both....

People like Argos and Placeta were fringe players, now they are starters / impact. 
Tells you all you need, 

[The Great Mass Debater 1,090]

Anyone able to explain why Rowe has gone from free-scoring to, well, not?

Has something changed or has he merely seen the end of his purple patch?

[shefcanary 2,410]

1 minute ago, The Great Mass Debater said:

Anyone able to explain why Rowe has gone from free-scoring to, well, not?

Has something changed or has he merely seen the end of his purple patch?

Again it could be down to not replacing Sargent Barnes effectively. When Sargent Barnes were on the pitch the opposition had to work overtime to keep tabs on them, their defences were being pulled all over the place. This allowed Rowe a bit more space, which he was initially able to exploit There were already signs the opposition were marking him much more tightly, but this was fine because this allowed a bit more room for others.

Since the absence of Sargent Barnes, their replacements are not as mobile or as clever in occupying the opposition defences and as a result Rowe is more heavily marked. Additionally when he does get on a run it is noticeable that he now seems to have to beat one man too many, usually fluffing his lines and leaving us frustrated thinking he should have laid the ball off earlier. 

Wagner has just not got to terms with the absence of Sargent Barnes. He really did need to find another structure to make the most of the players he had remaining, one of those was how to give Rowe the freedom to recapture his earlier form. It is noticeable that his most recent goals have tended to come from late runs from the wing into the box. Wagner really should have built on this as a platform to restructure.

 

[Robert N. LiM 4,385]

7 hours ago, hertfordyellow said:

His teams defend from the front and Sargent in particular is very good at this. Barnes is clever and orchestrated the press as well. If both don’t get injured then we are in the playoffs right now imo.

That said, you are never going to be injury free and to not have the ability to adjust is on Wagner. I understand the criticism of recruitment. The last minute signings aren’t much help to how Wagner plays.

This is essentially the answer. He had the players for plan A. When he no longer had the players, he didn't have a plan B.

At this stage it's got to Einstein's definition of insanity, doing the same thing and expecting a different result.

[Google Bot 3,278]

11 minutes ago, The Great Mass Debater said:

Anyone able to explain why Rowe has gone from free-scoring to, well, not?

He's pretty much the only threat we have so very easy to double up on and send down a blind alley. 

As he matures he'll learn to change his game up, but right now he's a novice, and (imo) the longer we go in a game without threatening the opposition, the harder he tries to do more solo work, which then evokes a vicious circle and you can see him getting more and more frustrated as the game goes on.

Adding either Sarge or Barnes completely changes how the opposition has to think and they're both smart in working off the ball, in fact having just Barnes in the ear of Rowe mid-game is something we're probably missing immensely too.  

[The Great Mass Debater 1,090]

9 minutes ago, shefcanary said:

Again it could be down to not replacing Sargent Barnes effectively. When Sargent Barnes were on the pitch the opposition had to work overtime to keep tabs on them, their defences were being pulled all over the place. This allowed Rowe a bit more space, which he was initially able to exploit There were already signs the opposition were marking him much more tightly, but this was fine because this allowed a bit more room for others.

Since the absence of Sargent Barnes, their replacements are not as mobile or as clever in occupying the opposition defences and as a result Rowe is more heavily marked. Additionally when he does get on a run it is noticeable that he now seems to have to beat one man too many, usually fluffing his lines and leaving us frustrated thinking he should have laid the ball off earlier. 

Wagner has just not got to terms with the absence of Sargent Barnes. He really did need to find another structure to make the most of the players he had remaining, one of those was how to give Rowe the freedom to recapture his earlier form. It is noticeable that his most recent goals have tended to come from late runs from the wing into the box. Wagner really should have built on this as a platform to restructure.

 

Anyone understand why Barnes seemingly raves about Sargent? Just being a good teammate and trying to get his confidence up or has Barnes clearly seen something?

Because every time I've seen him play he was 

 

Edited November 10, 2023 by The Great Mass Debater

[Google Bot 3,278]

8 hours ago, Fen Canary said:

However Wagner certainly hasn’t helped his cause by stubbornly refusing to change the tactics even when it clearly doesn’t suit the players he has left to pick from

I think the problem is that after Smith, we brought Wagner in with the remit to develop a plan and stick to it on the proviso that he would be given the players.

He could simply be doing the job asked and no-one has the balls to redefine his goals as it would appear to be panicking about the situation.  Remember that he's head coach instructed by the sporting director - not manager.

I guess the underlying belief is that when players get back from injury they will slot straight in and despite results being crap the system has remained in place.

[The Great Mass Debater 1,090]

While we're at it, does anyone know what the club see in Idah? Im not sure on what his long contract was based on

[The Great Mass Debater 1,090]

3 minutes ago, Google Bot said:

As he matures he'll learn to change his game up, but right now he's a novice

Might there be an argument that the club does not possess the coaching talent to help Rowe with that? So make up for his inexperience - ie teach him how to adapt and progress?

[Google Bot 3,278]

7 minutes ago, The Great Mass Debater said:

While we're at it, does anyone know what the club see in Idah? Im not sure on what his long contract was based on

I wouldn't rule out it being financially good for the club.  We may have him down on a 5 year deal that costs the equivalent of a similar player over 3 years.  Who knows, Seeing Carlton Morris at Luton may have played a factor too - Idah should develop into a great player when you consider his assets, it's injuries that would concern me with him longterm.

5 minutes ago, The Great Mass Debater said:

Might there be an argument that the club does not possess the coaching talent to help Rowe with that? So make up for his inexperience - ie teach him how to adapt and progress?

You need the players around you though, I don't know how you recreate 65 mins of frustration at Carrow Road with the crowd booing and you feeling that you're the answer, which brings in it's own frustrations and attempts at solo runs.

At that point, having someone like Barnes bringing you back to reality is needed. 

I don't think you'd get that kind of feedback from Idah, Hwang, PP, Onel, Nunez etc.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Google Bot

[Robert N. LiM 4,385]

23 minutes ago, The Great Mass Debater said:

Anyone understand why Barnes seemingly raves about Sargent? Just being a good teammate and trying to get his confidence up or has Barnes clearly seen something?

Sargent was excellent before his injury this season, both as a CF and as the first line of defence with Barnes in this 'press from the front' system. Think that system, having Barnes alongside him and being liberated to play in his actual position now Pukki has gone, have all contributed to him coming into his own. Obviously doubts persist about how effective he could be in the PL but at this level he's a good centre-forward.

[shefcanary 2,410]

21 minutes ago, The Great Mass Debater said:

Anyone understand why Barnes seemingly raves about Sargent? Just being a good teammate and trying to get his confidence up or has Barnes clearly seen something?

Because every time I've seen him play he was 

 

A lot is down to Sargent's sheer work rate and physical presence. We were also seeing that he does have a goal scorer's knack about him in the Championship which he struggled with in the Premiership - maybe a confidence thing or he's just found his level - hopefully for his career the former. Barnes raves about him because he occupies the defence giving Barnes an easier time in finding the net. Okay Barnes wasn't overly prolific at the beginning of the season, but I don't think I'd be wrong in saying he was on one of his better striking runs of his career. 

[Robert N. LiM 4,385]

23 minutes ago, The Great Mass Debater said:

While we're at it, does anyone know what the club see in Idah? Im not sure on what his long contract was based on

There's been a remarkable amount of fuss about Idah's contract. He's a young player with obvious attributes (especially pace and potentially strength which at the moment he really doesn't seem to make the most of) and it makes sense for the club to have control over his future. If he develops as we hope, great to have him tied to a deal here, which either will help us keep him or increase his fee. If he doesn't, he'll still be an asset to a lower-league club, who will have to pay a fee for him. Having him signed up for five years doesn't mean we think he's the new Messi, just that it's the best thing for both parties.

His obvious weakness, discussed to death on this forum, is his lack of goalscoring instinct, which is clearly a bit of a problem to put it mildly. But in his recent run of games he's actually played pretty well outside the box (I know there's an obvious comeback to this!). It's a real shame that Barnes got injured too because I think his experience would have been really good for Idah. It's a hobby-horse of mine that the Barnes injury was equally, or possibly even more consequential than the Sargent one.

[shefcanary 2,410]

18 minutes ago, Google Bot said:

We may have him down on a 5 year deal that costs the equivalent of a similar player over 3 years. 

I have no doubt this is one factor. The five year deal may also come with clauses not seen in a three year deal which incentivise, such that the basic five year deal is less than a full three year deal, but if Idah does well will bring him up to the equivalent rate of a three year deal. There will probably be quite generous release clauses for Idah as well. I cannot see why they'd offer a five year deal if there wasn't a financial structure that incentivises both parties. 

[Petriix 2,839]

As ever there is a degree of nuance which escapes most of the reactive rhetoric when things are going badly. As it happens I don't think Wagner's tactics are all that terrible but the failure to adapt to clear problems or around the strengths and (particularly) weaknesses of the individuals on the pitch are his Achilles heel.

The fundamental problem is a failure to get our weapons into goalscoring positions (and generally a lack of weapons) while leaving our midfield short of numbers and defensive skills. This, combined with a feedback loop of nosediving confidence and mental fragility, leads to the slump we're experiencing. 

Players revert to their base instincts when under pressure. Plan A is highly dependent on all players reading the game and working as a tight unit; if one player misses their cue or gets out of position, a cascade of overloads can (and does) lead to clear openings on our goal.

The team lacks balance. Rowe, Sara, Hernandez and Nunez are primarily attacking players who want to operate in the final third. This is compounded by playing very high fullbacks meaning we're often caught with far too many players ahead of the ball. Then Kenny drives forwards and we're left in far too many foot races where opposition wingers have a head start against our fullbacks.

In attacking transitions, our midfield lacks the collective skill, awareness and cohesion (and confidence) to make the right passes and movements to open teams up. Without a quality striker (mainly in terms of movement and positioning) we are far too easy to defend against. By generally being too high up the pitch and too stretched out, we're far too easy to play through.

It's a shame because I can often see exactly how the system is supposed to work. Against both Blackburn and Middlesbrough we won the ball in the final third several times during the opening exchanges but, through poor passing, movement and decision-making, were unable to create any real chances.

I think there are some glaringly obvious changes that we should make to mitigate the current fragility and get our players into the right positions so that their natural instincts more readily fit the situations they find themselves in. I can understand why Wagner keeps trying to make it work, but surely he must realise that something needs to change now?

The main thing is to stop throwing so many players forwards all the time; be more compact and harder to break down out of possession. To that end we need to play a more balanced mix of players. Get Rowe and Sara forward because they're the biggest threats but don't try to have Hernandez and Nunez on the pitch as well because neither have the required defensive skills. Likewise, get Kenny into his natural box-to-box role by playing him with a more defensive midfielder.

It remains to be seen how much influence Stuart Webber has imposed on the tactics and team selection. I have a suspicion that he's more involved than people realise. It might be that Wagner performs better once his toxic boss has moved on.

Ultimately the players aren't good enough (or assigned roles that they're good enough at) to play the system they're trying to play. We need to adapt the system to the players we have and/or try different players in certain key positions. I'm willing to give Wagner the chance to do something different post Webber before demanding his head.

Edited November 10, 2023 by Petriix