Parma’s State of the Nation

[shefcanary 2,409]

22 minutes ago, ged in the onion bag said:

For example, had we played Gibbs instead of McLean, would he now be better at that CDM role (freeing up McLean to play further forward perhaps), had we played Omobamidele instead of Gibson more often, would he now be more effective for us.    My view is very probably yes. 

I tend to agree with this as well. Wagner's recent selections have had that short termism about them - a player new to a role has a bad game, he is immediately out the next match rather than a little perseverance to allow them to gain experience of the ups and downs of the position. Others have argued this season should have been approached as a developmental one (like Farke's first season), but the assumption must be the pressure for promotion at all costs this season came from the top - despite Wagner not having the weapons necessary to achieve it. Lo, we are in a right mess at the moment, but can still look half way decent if things go our way. 

What has Knappers done in the break - doubled down on the short termism or relaxed the need for promotion this season?

[Big Vince 318]

2 hours ago, shefcanary said:

I tend to agree with this as well. Wagner's recent selections have had that short termism about them - a player new to a role has a bad game, he is immediately out the next match rather than a little perseverance to allow them to gain experience of the ups and downs of the position. Others have argued this season should have been approached as a developmental one (like Farke's first season), but the assumption must be the pressure for promotion at all costs this season came from the top - despite Wagner not having the weapons necessary to achieve it. Lo, we are in a right mess at the moment, but can still look half way decent if things go our way. 

What has Knappers done in the break - doubled down on the short termism or relaxed the need for promotion this season?

Apparently had a coffee and a chat with Wagner. Nothing official like.

[littleyellowbirdie 2,551]

2 minutes ago, Big Vince said:

Apparently had a coffee and a chat with Wagner. Nothing official like.

I hope it was coffee. If it was tea there'll be hell to pay, especially if it was in a mug.

[ged in the onion bag 855]

20 hours ago, shefcanary said:

Others have argued this season should have been approached as a developmental one (like Farke's first season), but the assumption must be the pressure for promotion at all costs this season came from the top - despite Wagner not having the weapons necessary to achieve it. Lo, we are in a right mess at the moment,

This has been my argument since we got relegated, not just this season!    I just could not see the point of pushing for promotion with a squad of players that couldn’t possibly compete at that level.   All the evidence suggests I was right all along.   The club didn’t have either the astuteness to see it which is quite worrying or the honesty and bravery to acknowledge the situation and change strategy.    
 

It really is as simple as that why were now floundering…..

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,220]

57 minutes ago, ged in the onion bag said:

This has been my argument since we got relegated, not just this season!    I just could not see the point of pushing for promotion with a squad of players that couldn’t possibly compete at that level.   All the evidence suggests I was right all along.   The club didn’t have either the astuteness to see it which is quite worrying or the honesty and bravery to acknowledge the situation and change strategy.    
 

It really is as simple as that why were now floundering…..

Surely they made it perfectly clear with their limited signings?

They still have to say ‘Premier League’, they can’t say anything else. 

As repeatedly argued, not all things-seasons-players-managers-likelihoods are equal. 

Football can certainly go against the odds, but increasingly in modern English football, it doesn’t. 

Parma 

[ged in the onion bag 855]

8 minutes ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

Surely they made it perfectly clear with their limited signings?

They still have to say ‘Premier League’, they can’t say anything else. 

As repeatedly argued, not all things-seasons-players-managers-likelihoods are equal. 

Football can certainly go against the odds, but increasingly in modern English football, it doesn’t. 

Parma 

I think this confirms my point and they didn’t make it clear.    Unless I’m misinterpreting your comment although I don’t understand the third para at all.  
 

As you state, they didn’t do much to improve an evidently poor squad nowhere near good enough for the EPL, yet all their rhetoric was about promotion and both Smith and Wagner were under instruction that the EPL was an essential necessity.    Consequently, they were tasked with results over development.    We’ve spent our time back in the Championship chasing an unattainable goal and we’ve failed to develop the team.     Then they got desperate at the end of last season and stacked the team with journeyman, further hindering development.  
 

You can’t deny the club have said promotion is the aim in both seasons.   Yes, they could say we’re not ready yet.   

[Captain Holt 522]

Again another tragic team selection.

Wagner will be sacked after a Portman Road shellacking. We can all see it - hope the club higher ups surprise us all. What are you made of Ben? 

[Morph 19]

A rhetorical question for our posters with coaching experience that comes from comments made in Connor Southwells review of yesterday: is the average age of your side important? Apparently an average age of 29.8 in the starting lineup yesterday.

whats the peak age for a player? 26?

If you are an U21 player watching that yesterday do you feel there’s a path for you to first team football in the club?

How does this current makeup fit with any long term strategy? If, that’s a massive if, that team got promoted how many of those aging players would you want to consider for the next season?

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,220]

Following the AGM I feel that this sporting thread and the Mark Attanasio financial thread are converging. 

As I suppose they must.

Delia came over a little resigned, disillusioned and deflated before, during and after the meeting. I suspect much that was said by Attanasio, Knapper and others in the audience rather fed into that feeling too. 

The feeing of an era passing. 

‘We do not have to guess if we can read the book’ is one of my father’s wisest sayings. For those who were really paying attention, there was a lot said - a lot of hiding in plain sight - much of which we had speculated, observed and calculated.

Delia referred to the past, to rescuing the club, to the fear of debt, to where we have come from. 

Mark Attanasio spoke of now being ‘Comfortable with the debt’.

Ben Knapper spoke of decisions going forwards that could be made ‘on a sporting basis rather than a financial one’

These are both significant changes. 

Avoiding the extreme cliff-edge of absolutist self-funded Finances allows for Sporting decisions to not be compulsive acts of self-harm. In practical terms this means you sell Buendia after relegation, not in the summer before promotion having promised the squad to ‘come back stronger’. 

Attanasio is ‘comfortable with the debt’ because it is now internal. Though of course it also floats on a bed of equity. Yes realisable only upon sale - and upon profitable sale at that - though Attanasio was ‘only this morning talking to Australia’ about ‘third-party funding’. He repeated several times that he will ‘later…look for third party funding’.

Let me clarify in practice: buy into the club cheaply as it struggles, take overall control, try to achieve success within the nominal equity gain bequeathed, sell minority shares on the up to third parties, end up with an appreciating asset. The club owns its own stadium, its own training ground, further land and the squad of players are liquid assets. 

It’s a different world we are going into now. Some benefits, some drawbacks. 

As @nutty nigel has repeatedly pointed out, fan ownership goes with Delia. Local connections go with Delia. It stretches back a long time. The question ‘why would you invest in a baseball club in Milwaukee?’ is a perfectly reasonable one.

Here are some positives noises from Mark Attanasio  for balance:

MA: Finance Committee plus MA Group meet, budget 2 years ahead, ‘comfortable with current debt levels, must compete in your division, must have Premier as goal’

MA: We must be a Premier League Team […to achieve our ultimate aims..]

MA: We will later look for 3^rd parties to come on board [invest, buy stocks]..talked to Australia

MA: 35 of 92 football clubs now have American owners or notable involvement..

MA: Compete…NCFC attractive…community..similar Milwaukee..passion…sport..family

MA:  Crescent Capital London office..FT editors talked about Norwich!

MA: Stadium, infrastructure [Ressler]…

MA: #1 Competitive Team…’keep trying to compete’..

MA: Keep adding  players…repeatable system…(with BK reports and analysis)..provide finances…younger players…actually costs money…academy not often ready immediately…buy quality

MA: We’ll support BK recommendations..firm foundations in place to make sure we stay up…

MA: Correlation between money and success clear

MA ‘I know how to raise capital…will bring in 3rd parties..about Finance …aligned group at Milwaukee…’

Mark has been talking to Ben for a while. They talk. They text. 

For anyone left in any doubt at all about lines of demarcation and roles and responsibilities ( @Don J Demorr ) Ben and Mark made it very, very clear. There has been a sudden land grab. All the sporting power is now with the Sporting Director:

BK: The Head Coach sets up the team, works with them during week (‘just like the American model in Baseball’)…’all the recruitment is my responsibility’

Of course ‘it would be crazy to bring players the head didn’t want’ and ‘that won’t happen’ …but that role is at my door…

The Head Coach - let’s call him Daniel for argument’s sake - will still be the lightning rod for ills of course. 

 This of course exactly suits the smiling Attanasio. He now (already)  holds Ultimate power.  He’s putting the money in. He may say that he doesn’t fully understand the game, though he does understand data. He can check it. Measure it. Watch over it. Control it. He carefully selected Ben Knapper due to his data background. Knapper referred to ‘Mark’ regularly. There were lots of candidates. ‘CEO types’….Director of football types with more ‘experience’….though someone who mirrors the baseball process, is data-driven, fresh, young and grateful (easily-controlled by the paymasters?) is perfect. Yes I suppose so. 

I think Ben Knapper came over extremely well by the way. We liked him. Different threads and thoughts often co-exist in football and life though…

Ben Knapper stated the following:

BK: Deploying assets on the field that are depreciating is to be checked 

BK: Roles & responsibilities, lines of communication…(all recruitment is driven by me) 

BK: Age increase in squad was conscious decision [back then]..leadership..reacting to other situations…went too far…[over]reacting to other situations…

BK: Oldest squad in league…not good for self-funded..so assets to be injected into the squad…young age = value..that’s the focus going forwards..youth is my personal history…must also give them exposure!

BK: Injuries..highest output in league…explosive actions [a lot to ask for oldies?]

BK: Long term view is the way that I work

BK: Ultimate responsibility for recruitment with SD [Head Coach must be happy and on board]

BK: Age profile key ….there will be money from MA to invest in quality youth (not cheap)

In case we were in any doubt that Mark’s money is going to change how Ben can act, Anthony Richens confirmed the following:

AR: Debt has moved from external to internal

AR: ‘Can now make decisions on a sporting basis’…(so couldn’t before)…

’..It’s ultimately still a player trading model ….and always will be..’…(though not sporting self harm as previously)

AR: £2.8m historical tax error [Auditors missed?]

The questions the Company issued in writing to the club for the AGM were surprisingly not referred to or addressed…

1.‘In light of your investment in the redeemable C-preference shares, your re-financing of other club debt and your notable history in finance – all set in context against a backdrop of the increasing trends and desires in America for consolidated multi-sport franchises - what is your exit strategy?

2. ‘Did you or any of your connected companies take a commission for any of the debt refinancing?’

3. ‘Given Delia and Michael’s repeated insistence that they would “not take a penny out of the club” do you consider there to be an inherent equity gain in the business and what do you internally value the equity gain at? What will you do with it?

….Though of course they were ultimately questions that were protective of Delia and her legacy - and questioning of Mark Attanasio’s ultimate intentions and motivations. Our belief is that they reached the right ears as intended. 

Regardless they de-facto got answers at the meeting in any case. Hiding in plain sight you see. 

1. Pump some early money in*,  increase the value of the overall asset, take on Third Party investment. On the phone to Australia about it this morning ’ (Australia? Not the tightest of criteria then….)

2. Bought C-Pref. Other internal (own companies or finance partners). No mention of charging interest. ‘Comfortable with it’. No mention of under what circumstances such loans or interest might be redeemable. 

3. Early funds injected up to £43m (our figures) are  riding on Delia’s handed-on unrealized equity gain. This can cover the early cost of buy in, then can sit on the Equity until a major offer appears ‘that can’t be refused’…

 

It wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to suggest that Attanasio ‘looking good’ early on is actually doing so with Delia’s money. 

She has been a wonderful benefactor to Norwich. She gave what she could. It wasn’t enough and as time went on we had to injure ourselves to survive without even much of an overdraft. We were scarred by debt in a world that had fallen in love with it, got addicted to it and used it as a financial game of pass-the-CDF-parcel. 

It was all a bit of an anachronism and - along with Webber’s desire to polish his own buttons - it cost us Farke, a year of Buendia at the top level when we were on the up and left us with daft players we shouldn’t use, who in the end nobody wanted. Plus of course it cost us the entire positional Play club-wide education. Very expensive that bit I’d suggest. 

I suppose you could argue that Delia’s relative football poverty is to blame for Webber’s twisted sporting contortions, though goodness me he could hardly have sent us into a worse tailspin if he had tried. 

As Greg Downes said recently when asking about the import of Josh Sargent’s injury on Norwich’s season: ‘ yes ok….but come on…he’s not a world  beater…’ 

Wagner’s interesting early season model with Sargent and Barnes as double false 9’s was quite interesting. It got worked out pretty quickly I thought and it certainly risked exposing our ongoing Achilles heel of lack of central defensive midfield protection (be it on-field personnel, tactics, zonal or suitable psychological profile). Doing it with Idah, Hwang or whoever looks daft.

 

Knapper-Attanasio will keep Wagner on a while - until something genuinely better can be found and attracted, though I suspect that it will be the roles and responsibilities, lines of communication and internal land grabs that are the major focus for American minds first….lots of control mechanisms now being put in place I’d suggest. 

‘I’m not a control freak’ he repeated several times in several interviews. 

On a personal note - and yes as a counterpoint - It isn’t long ago that we had a Black Manager, a gay Director and a woman owner. A real fan too. Call me sentimental, but I thought that was rather wonderful.

Now we’ve got an American financier. Just like everyone else.

I have talked before about Norwich ‘solving yesterday’s problems’. Many businesses are unintentionally run like that. Ben Knapper even  gently criticized the ancien regime at Norwich for it. 

I can’t help thinking that the little bit of extra money that Attanasio can lay his hands on was needed to keep Buendia for a year, keep Skippy in the building for another year and keep Farke ‘I don’t understand changing head coaches so often’ and the positional play methodology flowing through the pristine fields of Colney. That’s all yesterday now though. 

Attanasio might now find himself watching steaming columns of Matrix data, throwing some good money at the worst glitches, though finding we are actually quite a long way away from where we were. And it’s a long, draining and rather expensive journey back to 22nd. And then you’re still a bloody long way - sportingly and financially - from 17th. Though of course Australia will no doubt help you out at that point….

Delia holds her head in her hands when we lose. She had delegated authority and responsibility to others so she could stay a fan. It has cost her in the end. She has had to take Mr Right Now. I suspect she is questioning it all a little…

…though the tectonic plates have moved and she is now discovering the power of debt. 

Parma 

 

Edited December 7, 2023 by Parma Ham's gone mouldy

[Taiwan Canary 144]

Thanks for this summary, Parma. There is a Chinese idiom that says, "When the boat arrives at the pier head, it will naturally straighten." I think this is applicable to our situation. I watch with patience and (guarded) optimism!

Edited December 7, 2023 by Taiwan Canary

[Terminally Yellow 2,448]

Thanks for your interpretation on things, Parma. That's a very insightful and balanced post that gives me some hope and some cause for concern in equal measure.

[essex canary 496]

Sublime. We need Parma as Director of Communications.

[king canary 7,608]

7 hours ago, Terminally Yellow said:

Thanks for your interpretation on things, Parma. That's a very insightful and balanced post that gives me some hope and some cause for concern in equal measure.

I think this was always likely to be the case- new owners and investors should be welcomed but rightly treated with a dose of scepticism and need to earn the fans trust. 

MA is saying the right things but actions will speak louder than words.

[king canary 7,608]

8 minutes ago, essex canary said:

Sublime. We need Parma as Director of Communications.

As much as I love his posts I can't imagine someone less suited to clear, concise and easily accessible communication than our old pal @Parma Ham's gone mouldy.

[Robert N. LiM 4,367]

11 hours ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

Following the AGM I feel that this sporting thread and the Mark Attanasio financial thread are converging. 

thanks for this, @Parma Ham's gone mouldy - exactly what I was hoping for amid all the 'noise' around Delia's ill-advised comments at the AGM. This is the important stuff. Cheers.

 

[Parma Ham's gone mouldy 2,220]

36 minutes ago, king canary said:

As much as I love his posts I can't imagine someone less suited to clear, concise and easily accessible communication than our old pal @Parma Ham's gone mouldy.

It’s not for everyone…..I’d say it’s not for about…what?….say 20% of fans….?

Parma

Edited December 7, 2023 by Parma Ham's gone mouldy
😂

[Robert N. LiM 4,367]

7 hours ago, Taiwan Canary said:

Thanks for his summary, Parma. There is a Chinese idiom that says, "When the boat arrives at the pier head, it will naturally straighten." I think this is applicable to our situation. I watch with patience and (guarded) optimism!

The one everyone knows is just as applicable: we are certainly living in interesting times.

[ged in the onion bag 855]

Thanks for a great post.     

Smacks that finally some lessons are being learned!   Good to hear some acknowledgement of past failings too.   Seems quite damning of Webber's role without saying as much!   

Some room for optimism at least.   

Still worries me when they continue to talk about promotion, Wynn-Jones stating 'why not, were only a few points away from play-offs'.... quite simply we need a much better group of players and a playing philosophy before we even think about promotion.

[essex canary 496]

1 hour ago, king canary said:

As much as I love his posts I can't imagine someone less suited to clear, concise and easily accessible communication than our old pal @Parma Ham's gone mouldy.

Try listening to a Beethoven Symphony whilst reading.

[essex canary 496]

18 minutes ago, ged in the onion bag said:

Thanks for a great post.     

Smacks that finally some lessons are being learned!   Good to hear some acknowledgement of past failings too.   Seems quite damning of Webber's role without saying as much!   

Some room for optimism at least.   

Still worries me when they continue to talk about promotion, Wynn-Jones stating 'why not, were only a few points away from play-offs'.... quite simply we need a much better group of players and a playing philosophy before we even think about promotion.

Up to 5th place is still attainable. Even if we fluked it in the playoffs there is no evidence that we can come close even to Luton's current level of endeavour. Radical change within our Club or within the game in general is essential.

[Robert N. LiM 4,367]

37 minutes ago, ged in the onion bag said:

Still worries me when they continue to talk about promotion, Wynn-Jones stating 'why not, were only a few points away from play-offs'.... quite simply we need a much better group of players and a playing philosophy before we even think about promotion.

Agree with this. Sometimes wonder whether people at the club (not necessarily MWJ specifically) say this because they think it's what the fans want to hear. But I'd far rather hear that we have a longer-term plan to get to the PL but be more successful when we get there. Not going to die on the hill of defending Dean Smith, but think he would have got a fairer crack of the whip if Webber had said that we were building again after relegation, in a more pragmatic, PL-ready way, rather than giving the impression that bouncing back immediately was the goal.

[Soldier on 160]

12 hours ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

Following the AGM I feel that this sporting thread and the Mark Attanasio financial thread are converging. 

As I suppose as they must.

Delia came over a little resigned, disillusioned and deflated before, during and after the meeting. I suspect much that was said by Attanasio, Knapper and others in the audience rather fed into that feeling too. 

The feeing of an era passing. 

‘We do not have to guess if we can read the book’ is one of my father’s wisest sayings. For those who were really paying attention, there was a lot said - a lot of hiding in plain sight - much of which we had speculated, observed and calculated.

Delia referred to the past, to rescuing the club, to the fear of debt, to where we have come from. 

Mark Attanasio spoke of now being ‘Comfortable with the debt’.

Ben Knapper spoke of decisions going forwards that could be made ‘on a sporting basis rather than a financial one’

These are both significant changes. 

Avoiding the extreme cliff-edge of absolutist self-funded Finances allows for Sporting decisions to not be compulsive acts of self-harm. In practical terms this means you sell Buendia after relegation, not in the summer before promotion having promised the squad to ‘come back stronger’. 

Attanasio is ‘comfortable with the debt’ because it is now internal. Though of course it also floats on a bed of equity. Yes realisable only upon sale - and upon profitable sale at that - though Attanasio was ‘only this morning talking to Australia’ about ‘third-party funding’. He repeated several times that he will ‘later…look for third party funding’.

Let me clarify in practice: buy into the club cheaply as it struggles, take overall control, try to achieve success within the nominal equity gain bequeathed, sell minority shares on the up to third parties, end up with an appreciating asset. The club owns its own stadium, its own training ground, further land and the squad of players are liquid assets. 

It’s a different world we are going into now. Some benefits, some drawbacks. 

As @nutty nigel has repeatedly pointed out, fan ownership goes with Delia. Local connections go with Delia. It stretches back a long time. The question ‘why would you invest in a baseball club in Milwaukee?’ is a perfectly reasonable one.

Here are some positives noises from Mark Attanasio  for balance:

MA: Finance Committee plus MA Group meet, budget 2 years ahead, ‘comfortable with current debt levels, must compete in your division, must have Premier as goal’

MA: We must be a Premier League Team […to achieve our ultimate aims..]

MA: We will later look for 3^rd parties to come on board [invest, buy stocks]..talked to Australia

MA: 35 of 92 football clubs now have American owners or notable involvement..

MA: Compete…NCFC attractive…community..similar Milwaukee..passion,,,,sport..family

MA:  Crescent London office..FT editors talked about Norwich!

MA: Stadium, infrastructure [Ressler]…

MA: #1 Competitive Team…’keep trying to compete’..

MA: Keep adding  players…repeatable system…(with BK reports and analysis)..provide finances…younger players…actually costs money…academy not often ready immediately…buy quality

MA: We’ll support BK recommendations..firm foundations in place to make sure we stay up…

MA: Correlation between money and success clear

MA ‘I know how to raise capital…bring in 3rd parties we will..about Finance …aligned group at Milwaukee…’

Mark has been taking to Ben for a while. They talk. They text. 

For anyone left on any doubt at all about lines of demarcation and roles and responsibilities ( @Don J Demorr ) Ben and Mark made it very, very clear. There has been a sudden land grab. All the sporting power is now with the Sporting Director:

BK: The Head Coach sets up the team, works with them during week (‘just like the American model in Baseball’)…’all the recruitment is my responsibility’

Of course ‘it would be crazy to bring players the head didn’t want’ and ‘that won’t happen’ …but that role is at my door…

The Head Coach - let’s call him Daniel for argument’s sake - will still be the lightning rod of course. 

 This of course exactly suits the smiling Attanasio. He now (already)  holds Ultimate power.  He’s putting the money in. He may say that he doesn’t fully understand the game, though he does understand data. He can check it. Measure it. Watch over it. Control it. He carefully selected Ben Knapper due to his data background. Knapper referred to ‘Mark’ regularly. There were lots of candidates. ‘CEO types’….Director of football types with more ‘experience’….though someone who mirrors the baseball process, is data-driven, fresh, young and grateful (easily-controlled by the paymasters?) is perfect. Yes I suppose so. 

I think Ben Knapper came over extremely well by the way. We liked him. Different threads and thoughts often co-exist in football and life though…

Ben Knapper stated the following:

BK: Deploying assets on the field that are depreciating is to be checked 

BK: Roles & responsibilities, lines of communication…(all recruitment is driven by me) 

BK: Age increase in squad was conscious decision [back then]..leadership..reacting to other situations…went too far…[over]reacting to other situations…

BK: Oldest squad in league…not good for self-funded..so assets to be injected into the squad…young age = value..that’s the focus going forwards..youth is my personal history…must also give them exposure!

BK: Injuries..highest output in league…explosive actions [a lot to ask for oldies?]

BK: Long term view is the way that I work

BK: Ultimate responsibility for recruitment with SD [Head Coach must be happy and on board]

BK: Age profile key ….there will be money from MA to invest in quality youth (not cheap)

In case we were in any doubt that Mark’s money is going to change how Ben can act, Anthony Riches confirmed the following:

AR: Debt has moved from external to internal

AR: ‘Can now make decisions on a sporting basis’…(so couldn’t before)…

’..It’s ultimately still a player trading model ….and always will be..’…(though not sporting self harm as previously)

AR: £2.8m historical tax error [Auditors missed?]

The questions the Company issued in writing to the club for the AGM were surprisingly not referred to or addressed…

1.‘In light of your investment in the redeemable C-preference shares, your re-financing of other club debt and your notable history in finance – all set in context against a backdrop of the increasing trends and desires in America for consolidated multi-sport franchises - what is your exit strategy?

2. ‘Did you or any of your connected companies take a commission for any of the debt refinancing?’

3. ‘Given Delia and Michael’s repeated insistence that they would “not take a penny out of the club” do you consider there to be an inherent equity gain in the business and what do you internally value the equity gain at? What will you do with it?

….Though of course they were ultimately questions that were protective of Delia and her legacy - and questioning of Mark Attanasio’s ultimate intentions and motivations. Our belief is that they reached the right ears as intended. 

Regardless they de-facto got answers at the meeting in any case. Hiding in plain sight you see. 

1. Pump some early money in*,  increase the value of the overall asset, take on Third Party investment. On the phone to Australia about it this morning ’ (Australia? Not the tightest of criteria then….)

2. Bought C-Pref. Other internal (own companies or finance partners). No mention of charging interest. ‘Comfortable with it’. No mention of under what circumstances such loans or interest might be redeemable. 

3. Early funds injected up to £43m (our figures) are  riding on Delia’s handed-on unrealized equity gain. This can cover the early cost of buy in, then can sit on the Equity until a major offer appears ‘that can’t be refused’…

 

It wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to suggest that Attanasio ‘looking good’ early on is actually doing so with Delia’s money. 

She has been a wonderful benefactor to Norwich. She gave what she could. It wasn’t enough and as time went on we had to injure ourselves to survive without even much of an overdraft. We were scarred by debt in a world that had fallen in love with it, got addicted to it and used it as a financial game of pass-the-CDF-parcel. 

It was all a bit of an anachronism and - along with Webber’s desire to polish his own buttons - it cost us Farke, a year of Buendia at the top level when we were on the up and left us with daft players we shouldn’t use, who in the end nobody wanted.

I suppose you could argue that Delia’s relative football poverty is to blame for Webber’s twisted sporting contortions, though goodness me he could hardly have sent us into a worse tailspin if he had tried. 

As Greg Downes said recently when asking about the import of Josh Sargent’s injury on Norwich’s season: ‘ yes ok….but come on…he’s not a world  beater…’ 

Wagner’s interesting early season model with Sargent and Barnes as double false 9’s was quite interesting. It got worked out pretty quickly I thought and it certainly risked exposing our ongoing Achilles heel of lack of central defensive midfield protection (be it on-field personnel, tactics, zonal or suitable psychological profile). Doing it with Idah, Hwang or whoever looks daft.

 

Knapper-Attanasio will keep Wagner on a while - until something genuinely better can be found and attracted, though I suspect that it will be the roles and responsibilities, lines of communication and internal land grabs that are the major focus for American minds first….lots of control mechanisms being out in place I’d suggest. 

‘I’m not a control freak’ he repeated several times in several interviews. 

On a personal note - and yes as a counterpoint - It isn’t long ago that we had a Black Manager, a gay Director and a woman owner. A real fan too. Call me sentimental, but I thought that was rather wonderful.

Now we’ve got an American financier. Just like everyone else.

I have talked before about Norwich ‘solving yesterday’s problems’. Many businesses are unintentionally run like that. Ben Knapper even  gently criticized the ancien regime at Norwich for it. 

I can’t help thinking that the little bit of extra money that Attanasio can lay his hands on was needed to keep Buendia for a year, keep Skippy in the building for another year and keep Farke ‘I don’t understand changing head coaches so often’ and the positional play methodology flowing through the pristine fields of Colney. That’s all yesterday now though. 

Attanasio might now find himself watching steaming columns of Matrix data, throwing some good money at the worst glitches, though finding we are actually quite a long way away from where we were. And it’s a long, draining and rather expensive journey back to 22nd. And then you’re still a bloody long way - sportingly and financially - from 17th. Though of course Australia will no doubt help you out at that point….

Delia holds her head in her hands when we lose. She had delegated authority and responsibility to others so she could stay a fan. It has cost her in the end. She has had to take Mr Right Now. I suspect she is questioning it all a little…

…though the tectonic plates have moved and she is now discovering the power of debt. 

Parma 

 

 

12 hours ago, Parma Ham's gone mouldy said:

Following the AGM I feel that this sporting thread and the Mark Attanasio financial thread are converging. 

As I suppose as they must.

Delia came over a little resigned, disillusioned and deflated before, during and after the meeting. I suspect much that was said by Attanasio, Knapper and others in the audience rather fed into that feeling too. 

The feeing of an era passing. 

‘We do not have to guess if we can read the book’ is one of my father’s wisest sayings. For those who were really paying attention, there was a lot said - a lot of hiding in plain sight - much of which we had speculated, observed and calculated.

Delia referred to the past, to rescuing the club, to the fear of debt, to where we have come from. 

Mark Attanasio spoke of now being ‘Comfortable with the debt’.

Ben Knapper spoke of decisions going forwards that could be made ‘on a sporting basis rather than a financial one’

These are both significant changes. 

Avoiding the extreme cliff-edge of absolutist self-funded Finances allows for Sporting decisions to not be compulsive acts of self-harm. In practical terms this means you sell Buendia after relegation, not in the summer before promotion having promised the squad to ‘come back stronger’. 

Attanasio is ‘comfortable with the debt’ because it is now internal. Though of course it also floats on a bed of equity. Yes realisable only upon sale - and upon profitable sale at that - though Attanasio was ‘only this morning talking to Australia’ about ‘third-party funding’. He repeated several times that he will ‘later…look for third party funding’.

Let me clarify in practice: buy into the club cheaply as it struggles, take overall control, try to achieve success within the nominal equity gain bequeathed, sell minority shares on the up to third parties, end up with an appreciating asset. The club owns its own stadium, its own training ground, further land and the squad of players are liquid assets. 

It’s a different world we are going into now. Some benefits, some drawbacks. 

As @nutty nigel has repeatedly pointed out, fan ownership goes with Delia. Local connections go with Delia. It stretches back a long time. The question ‘why would you invest in a baseball club in Milwaukee?’ is a perfectly reasonable one.

Here are some positives noises from Mark Attanasio  for balance:

MA: Finance Committee plus MA Group meet, budget 2 years ahead, ‘comfortable with current debt levels, must compete in your division, must have Premier as goal’

MA: We must be a Premier League Team […to achieve our ultimate aims..]

MA: We will later look for 3^rd parties to come on board [invest, buy stocks]..talked to Australia

MA: 35 of 92 football clubs now have American owners or notable involvement..

MA: Compete…NCFC attractive…community..similar Milwaukee..passion,,,,sport..family

MA:  Crescent London office..FT editors talked about Norwich!

MA: Stadium, infrastructure [Ressler]…

MA: #1 Competitive Team…’keep trying to compete’..

MA: Keep adding  players…repeatable system…(with BK reports and analysis)..provide finances…younger players…actually costs money…academy not often ready immediately…buy quality

MA: We’ll support BK recommendations..firm foundations in place to make sure we stay up…

MA: Correlation between money and success clear

MA ‘I know how to raise capital…bring in 3rd parties we will..about Finance …aligned group at Milwaukee…’

Mark has been taking to Ben for a while. They talk. They text. 

For anyone left on any doubt at all about lines of demarcation and roles and responsibilities ( @Don J Demorr ) Ben and Mark made it very, very clear. There has been a sudden land grab. All the sporting power is now with the Sporting Director:

BK: The Head Coach sets up the team, works with them during week (‘just like the American model in Baseball’)…’all the recruitment is my responsibility’

Of course ‘it would be crazy to bring players the head didn’t want’ and ‘that won’t happen’ …but that role is at my door…

The Head Coach - let’s call him Daniel for argument’s sake - will still be the lightning rod of course. 

 This of course exactly suits the smiling Attanasio. He now (already)  holds Ultimate power.  He’s putting the money in. He may say that he doesn’t fully understand the game, though he does understand data. He can check it. Measure it. Watch over it. Control it. He carefully selected Ben Knapper due to his data background. Knapper referred to ‘Mark’ regularly. There were lots of candidates. ‘CEO types’….Director of football types with more ‘experience’….though someone who mirrors the baseball process, is data-driven, fresh, young and grateful (easily-controlled by the paymasters?) is perfect. Yes I suppose so. 

I think Ben Knapper came over extremely well by the way. We liked him. Different threads and thoughts often co-exist in football and life though…

Ben Knapper stated the following:

BK: Deploying assets on the field that are depreciating is to be checked 

BK: Roles & responsibilities, lines of communication…(all recruitment is driven by me) 

BK: Age increase in squad was conscious decision [back then]..leadership..reacting to other situations…went too far…[over]reacting to other situations…

BK: Oldest squad in league…not good for self-funded..so assets to be injected into the squad…young age = value..that’s the focus going forwards..youth is my personal history…must also give them exposure!

BK: Injuries..highest output in league…explosive actions [a lot to ask for oldies?]

BK: Long term view is the way that I work

BK: Ultimate responsibility for recruitment with SD [Head Coach must be happy and on board]

BK: Age profile key ….there will be money from MA to invest in quality youth (not cheap)

In case we were in any doubt that Mark’s money is going to change how Ben can act, Anthony Riches confirmed the following:

AR: Debt has moved from external to internal

AR: ‘Can now make decisions on a sporting basis’…(so couldn’t before)…

’..It’s ultimately still a player trading model ….and always will be..’…(though not sporting self harm as previously)

AR: £2.8m historical tax error [Auditors missed?]

The questions the Company issued in writing to the club for the AGM were surprisingly not referred to or addressed…

1.‘In light of your investment in the redeemable C-preference shares, your re-financing of other club debt and your notable history in finance – all set in context against a backdrop of the increasing trends and desires in America for consolidated multi-sport franchises - what is your exit strategy?

2. ‘Did you or any of your connected companies take a commission for any of the debt refinancing?’

3. ‘Given Delia and Michael’s repeated insistence that they would “not take a penny out of the club” do you consider there to be an inherent equity gain in the business and what do you internally value the equity gain at? What will you do with it?

….Though of course they were ultimately questions that were protective of Delia and her legacy - and questioning of Mark Attanasio’s ultimate intentions and motivations. Our belief is that they reached the right ears as intended. 

Regardless they de-facto got answers at the meeting in any case. Hiding in plain sight you see. 

1. Pump some early money in*,  increase the value of the overall asset, take on Third Party investment. On the phone to Australia about it this morning ’ (Australia? Not the tightest of criteria then….)

2. Bought C-Pref. Other internal (own companies or finance partners). No mention of charging interest. ‘Comfortable with it’. No mention of under what circumstances such loans or interest might be redeemable. 

3. Early funds injected up to £43m (our figures) are  riding on Delia’s handed-on unrealized equity gain. This can cover the early cost of buy in, then can sit on the Equity until a major offer appears ‘that can’t be refused’…

 

It wouldn’t be too much of a stretch to suggest that Attanasio ‘looking good’ early on is actually doing so with Delia’s money. 

She has been a wonderful benefactor to Norwich. She gave what she could. It wasn’t enough and as time went on we had to injure ourselves to survive without even much of an overdraft. We were scarred by debt in a world that had fallen in love with it, got addicted to it and used it as a financial game of pass-the-CDF-parcel. 

It was all a bit of an anachronism and - along with Webber’s desire to polish his own buttons - it cost us Farke, a year of Buendia at the top level when we were on the up and left us with daft players we shouldn’t use, who in the end nobody wanted.

I suppose you could argue that Delia’s relative football poverty is to blame for Webber’s twisted sporting contortions, though goodness me he could hardly have sent us into a worse tailspin if he had tried. 

As Greg Downes said recently when asking about the import of Josh Sargent’s injury on Norwich’s season: ‘ yes ok….but come on…he’s not a world  beater…’ 

Wagner’s interesting early season model with Sargent and Barnes as double false 9’s was quite interesting. It got worked out pretty quickly I thought and it certainly risked exposing our ongoing Achilles heel of lack of central defensive midfield protection (be it on-field personnel, tactics, zonal or suitable psychological profile). Doing it with Idah, Hwang or whoever looks daft.

 

Knapper-Attanasio will keep Wagner on a while - until something genuinely better can be found and attracted, though I suspect that it will be the roles and responsibilities, lines of communication and internal land grabs that are the major focus for American minds first….lots of control mechanisms being out in place I’d suggest. 

‘I’m not a control freak’ he repeated several times in several interviews. 

On a personal note - and yes as a counterpoint - It isn’t long ago that we had a Black Manager, a gay Director and a woman owner. A real fan too. Call me sentimental, but I thought that was rather wonderful.

Now we’ve got an American financier. Just like everyone else.

I have talked before about Norwich ‘solving yesterday’s problems’. Many businesses are unintentionally run like that. Ben Knapper even  gently criticized the ancien regime at Norwich for it. 

I can’t help thinking that the little bit of extra money that Attanasio can lay his hands on was needed to keep Buendia for a year, keep Skippy in the building for another year and keep Farke ‘I don’t understand changing head coaches so often’ and the positional play methodology flowing through the pristine fields of Colney. That’s all yesterday now though. 

Attanasio might now find himself watching steaming columns of Matrix data, throwing some good money at the worst glitches, though finding we are actually quite a long way away from where we were. And it’s a long, draining and rather expensive journey back to 22nd. And then you’re still a bloody long way - sportingly and financially - from 17th. Though of course Australia will no doubt help you out at that point….

Delia holds her head in her hands when we lose. She had delegated authority and responsibility to others so she could stay a fan. It has cost her in the end. She has had to take Mr Right Now. I suspect she is questioning it all a little…

…though the tectonic plates have moved and she is now discovering the power of debt. 

Parma 

 

Thanks for this hadn’t seen the detail on Knapper’s quotes . I wonder how much funding they are looking to provide him with in January ? Seems little point investing in loans if we are now about building value / assets of our own.

[ged in the onion bag 855]

7 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Agree with this. Sometimes wonder whether people at the club (not necessarily MWJ specifically) say this because they think it's what the fans want to hear. But I'd far rather hear that we have a longer-term plan to get to the PL but be more successful when we get there. Not going to die on the hill of defending Dean Smith, but think he would have got a fairer crack of the whip if Webber had said that we were building again after relegation, in a more pragmatic, PL-ready way, rather than giving the impression that bouncing back immediately was the goal.

I'm the only one whose been ploughing on with this longer term argument for the past two years (since relegation) and its only recently that some fans have come around to this view.     Same for Wagner as with Smith, he's been instructed to pursue promotion too, hence no development.   Is true that they've been bizarrely chasing the promised land, so its not to appease the fans, they clearly believed promotion was possible, even expected at first.     They were blind to the fact the team wasn't good enough...      

[essex canary 496]

14 minutes ago, ged in the onion bag said:

I'm the only one whose been ploughing on with this longer term argument for the past two years (since relegation) and its only recently that some fans have come around to this view.     Same for Wagner as with Smith, he's been instructed to pursue promotion too, hence no development.   Is true that they've been bizarrely chasing the promised land, so its not to appease the fans, they clearly believed promotion was possible, even expected at first.     They were blind to the fact the team wasn't good enough...      

The problem for the Webbers though is that is a little like politicians, they don't know whether they will be around in the immediate future. That is why the Board including younger influential non-executive members (which we haven’t got) should ultimately supervise the management of the Club. 

 

[Barham Blitz 653]

38 minutes ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Agree with this. Sometimes wonder whether people at the club (not necessarily MWJ specifically) say this because they think it's what the fans want to hear. But I'd far rather hear that we have a longer-term plan to get to the PL but be more successful when we get there. Not going to die on the hill of defending Dean Smith, but think he would have got a fairer crack of the whip if Webber had said that we were building again after relegation, in a more pragmatic, PL-ready way, rather than giving the impression that bouncing back immediately was the goal.

I'd agree with the overall sentiment but wasn't the entire (misguided) point of both Smith and Wagner that we were aiming for a more pragmatic PL ready approach (whatever that means ...)

I think in general it has become apparent that the approach required to escape the championship (outliers like Luton aside, it tends to be the more attacking / possession based sides that go up) would appear diametrically opposed to the approach required to stay in the Premiership.  Or at least the popular perception of it - I'd argue that we would have been better off selectively adding to that last Farke promotion side which had actually made some pragmatic adjustments in their style whilst still getting promoted than essentially ripping up the blueprint and starting again with a manifestly flawed tactical approach, a gaggle of expensive yet unproven youngsters and a ragtag assortment of loanees.  Indeed I'd argue that just running further and faster than three other teams isn't a long term strategy at all.

But I digress.  Hopefully the Attanasio cash will give a little more wriggle room should we be in that position again

The original five year plan had me on board.  I would be again, subject to Knapper's views on how that was to be achieved.  I'm entirely fine with yo-yoing our way to incremental improvement.  I suspect that we are now in a position though where, post-Farke's dismissal three months into a four year contract or whatever it was, post-Smith and ultimately post-Wagner, any manager is going to look at a 5 year plan and wonder about his employment prospects.  It is a much harder sell second time around with the still warm bodies of your predecessors being dragged off stage which is presumably why the Duffys of this world still get a game ahead of the Warners.  And there is no point in being 'Premiership ready' (which we wouldn't be) if it doesn't get us out of the Championship.

Ultimately we have to decide what kind of club we want to be (or at least realistically can be) and plan accordingly.   As others have pointed out, even if signing a bunch of 30 something journeymen gets us promoted in the short term, we'd have to replace them all on promotion anyway.

 

 

[Petriix 2,838]

1 hour ago, Robert N. LiM said:

Agree with this. Sometimes wonder whether people at the club (not necessarily MWJ specifically) say this because they think it's what the fans want to hear. But I'd far rather hear that we have a longer-term plan to get to the PL but be more successful when we get there. Not going to die on the hill of defending Dean Smith, but think he would have got a fairer crack of the whip if Webber had said that we were building again after relegation, in a more pragmatic, PL-ready way, rather than giving the impression that bouncing back immediately was the goal.

But I'm fairly certain that Webber and his disciples within the club genuinely believed that the players and manager were good enough to bounce back straight away. They still seem to think it was just bad luck with injuries etc that have put us in this artificially low position. While there's such a disparity between the reality we can see on the pitch and the rhetoric coming from the club, that can only lead to resentment and a sense of 'disconnect'. 

The noises from Attanasio and Knapper are far more realistic and therefore easier to connect with. The weird regard for Webber and the failure to acknowledge his failures of the last three years is the biggest issue for me. It's hard to move on while people are still singing his praises. 

[Robert N. LiM 4,367]

5 minutes ago, Petriix said:

But I'm fairly certain that Webber and his disciples within the club genuinely believed that the players and manager were good enough to bounce back straight away.

Quite possibly. Very hard to tell with public statements whether they're what the people saying them actually believe or whether they're being politicians. And I guess the overwhelming desire to strike while the parachute payments are still hot would push you to that way of seeing things, too.

But even if SW considered we had the squad to bounce straight back, we had two seasons of evidence in the PL that it was miles away from being a squad that could stay up, so a reset of some kind would have been needed anyway.

 

7 minutes ago, Petriix said:

While there's such a disparity between the reality we can see on the pitch and the rhetoric coming from the club, that can only lead to resentment and a sense of 'disconnect'. 

The noises from Attanasio and Knapper are far more realistic and therefore easier to connect with. The weird regard for Webber and the failure to acknowledge his failures of the last three years is the biggest issue for me. It's hard to move on while people are still singing his praises. 

Completely agree with this.

Just speaking personally, I think that the personal nature of some of the criticism of SW has probably pushed me into wanting to defend him more than his record post-Buendía deserves. But there's no question that the period since our most recent promotion has been a catalogue of errors (don't know who first used it, but the notion of Webber being a gambler chasing his losses always seems the best description to me). As you say, it's very worrying if those at the top don't share that view. I suspect that D&M don't. Their greatest weakness (if you leave out not having enough money to satisfy simplists) is an overly-sentimental attitude to their employees and that certainly seems to be playing out with the Webbers. But hopefully MA and Ben Knapper are more hard-nosed. Certainly the Knapper quotes shared by @Parma Ham's gone mouldy would suggest as much. And hopefully their voices will become more and more significant as the handover period progresses.

[lake district canary 4,531]

21 minutes ago, Barham Blitz said:

I'm entirely fine with yo-yoing our way to incremental improvement.  I suspect that we are now in a position though where, post-Farke's dismissal three months into a four year contract or whatever it was, post-Smith and ultimately post-Wagner, any manager is going to look at a 5 year plan and wonder about his employment prospects.

Agreed. This was the insanity behind sacking Farke. It put short termism and desperation to stay in the PL as the main criteria, rather than long-term view. It lost me completely for a while and has cost the club dear not only with the painful lack of development on the pitch, but also in paying off managers. How much would Farke have got and how much Smith? Between them maybe £5m ? Maybe more?  If Wagner goes, he will have a 12 months pay off - and as you say people may start to think "are they a club with a real long term plan, or are they just the same as everyone else?"  The club has imo still not recovered from sacking Farke. People can twist that how they want, but it was a huge call by Webber and a wrong one, as the last two years has shown. 

[Robert N. LiM 4,367]

11 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

Agreed. This was the insanity behind sacking Farke. It put short termism and desperation to stay in the PL as the main criteria, rather than long-term view. It lost me completely for a while and has cost the club dear not only with the painful lack of development on the pitch, but also in paying off managers. How much would Farke have got and how much Smith? Between them maybe £5m ? Maybe more?  If Wagner goes, he will have a 12 months pay off - and as you say people may start to think "are they a club with a real long term plan, or are they just the same as everyone else?"  The club has imo still not recovered from sacking Farke. People can twist that how they want, but it was a huge call by Webber and a wrong one, as the last two years has shown. 

Generally agree with this, and really regret we lost our nerve in the second PL season under Webber/Farke.

But would just add in reply to you and @Barham Blitz that surely the point of the SD model is that a long-term plan should be able to encompass more than one coach. The NCFC five-year plan became synonymous with Farke, but that doesn't mean it had to.

Edited December 7, 2023 by Robert N. LiM
clarity

[ricardo 7,395]

21 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

Agreed. This was the insanity behind sacking Farke. It put short termism and desperation to stay in the PL as the main criteria, rather than long-term view. It lost me completely for a while and has cost the club dear not only with the painful lack of development on the pitch, but also in paying off managers. How much would Farke have got and how much Smith? Between them maybe £5m ? Maybe more?  If Wagner goes, he will have a 12 months pay off - and as you say people may start to think "are they a club with a real long term plan, or are they just the same as everyone else?"  The club has imo still not recovered from sacking Farke. People can twist that how they want, but it was a huge call by Webber and a wrong one, as the last two years has shown. 

Spot on.

Panicky short termism reaped its own reward.

Edited December 7, 2023 by ricardo