34 points enough to stay up?

[Move Klose 303]

So if we are thinking a defeat is inevitable vs Liverpool, (we never beat them). Do we honestly believe we have enough to get the same amount points from the last 13 games as we have in the first 25 games (17 points). Can't see that myself.

[cambridgeshire canary 6,781]

Not saying we were already relegated on Halloween with our Watford loss but.. Yeah it's not looking good

 

But who knows maybe we will sneak a point from Liverpool and beat Brentford, Southampton and Leeds then it would be great escape time.. But that's really the only way I see us stayng up

[ricardo 7,396]

its always been highly unlikely. The Runes were clear enough by the end of October.

To still be in with a shout is an acheivement in itself.

[Robert N. LiM 4,464]

I think we can stay ahead of Watford and Burnley. I'm struggling to see a third team. Brentford are the most likely, I think.

I think we should be celebrating the fact we are still having this conversation. We have done so well to drag ourselves back into something like contention.

[Move Klose 303]

3 minutes ago, cambridgeshire canary said:

Not saying we were already relegated on Halloween with our Watford loss but.. Yeah it's not looking good

 

But who knows maybe we will sneak a point from Liverpool and beat Brentford, Southampton and Leeds then it would be great escape time.. But that's really the only way I see us stayng up

We are realistically looking at needing probably 6 wins to have a chance of staying up. We have 6 home games remaining but bearing in mind 2 of them are Chelsea & Spurs.

That run over Xmas has really cost us I think. Also not bringing in another striker/forward in January would've helped, even a foreign loan. Shame we spent 10m on a winger who doesn't get a look in.

[Capt. Pants 4,274]

38 points I reckon and that might not be enough. Trouble is Everton and Leeds have games in hand.

Our goal difference is catastrophic.

[Midlands Yellow 4,049]

It’s heavy odd on for another hammering next weekend, that Palace game was key and a match we had to win. 

[Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB 1,036]

1 minute ago, Midlands Yellow said:

It’s heavy odd on for another hammering next weekend, that Palace game was key and a match we had to win. 

What a little ray of sunshine you are...........

[Mengo 825]

34 minutes ago, ricardo said:

its always been highly unlikely. The Runes were clear enough by the end of October.

To still be in with a shout is an acheivement in itself.

To still be in with a shout is an acheivement in itself.

For sure it is Ricardo . I only wish the change to the SAS had been sooner. Hope is still with me and I'm sure the team feels the same way. Barring major injury issues we can still do this.

 

[Midlands Yellow 4,049]

18 minutes ago, Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB said:

What a little ray of sunshine you are...........

Am I wrong then? 

[Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB 1,036]

4 minutes ago, Midlands Yellow said:

Am I wrong then? 

No and Yes, I read your post and just thought you made Eeyore sound super positive........

[Midlands Yellow 4,049]

Just now, Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB said:

No and Yes, I read your post and just thought you made Eeyore sound super positive........

Ok ........

[dylanisabaddog 4,970]

Long ago in 1995 we were in a better position on New Year's day than Brentford were this season and we went down. 

If we are going to survive it will be Brentford, Watford and Burnley that go down. 

[GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,797]

29 pts would have kept a team up last season...the bottom 3 in Sheff Utd ,WBA and Fulham must have had one of the lowest cumulative pts totals in premier lge history.

Maybe something equally low maybe enough?

We can guess what the golden nunber is but at the end of the day its one pt more than whoever finishes 3rd from bottom

Edited February 13, 2022 by GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary

[Newtopia 519]

The odds of staying up are now really long, I am just pleased we are competing, and have not been cut adrift.

[Jim Smith 2,339]

Leeds are in the mix too. If we are to stay up we need to beat Brentford, Leeds, Newcastle and Burnley and the pick up another 4-6 points from somewhere. When you look at the fixtures 6 wins is “doable” but there is no room for error in those four games. 

[Helsinki canary 242]

With 5 winnable games left and most likely we will mess one of those up with a draw the best we can expect is 32 points , in most seasons that is not enough, Brentford and Leeds are the only other two teams who could continue to meltdown and take the 3rd spot but they are already 6-7 points ahead of us, so the odds on surviving when looking at it realistically are extremely slim, but hey ho the Championship is fun and we get better value for our season tickets

Edited February 13, 2022 by Helsinki canary

[Disco Dales Jockstrap 1,898]

2 hours ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said:

29 pts would have kept a team up last season...the bottom 3 in Sheff Utd ,WBA and Fulham must have had one of the lowest cumulative pts totals in premier lge history.

 

I've seen this strange logic on here before and can't get my head round what the thinking is. Burnley finished in 17th with 39 points. 29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37 and 38 wouldn't have been enough. BECAUSE BURNLEY HAD 39! It doesn't matter what 18th place had.

Anyway...

Disco's NCFC predication spreadsheet has us finishing with 31 points. 14 points from the last 14 games, pretty much matching what Smith has done since joining the club. It was the 5 points from the first 11 games that cost us. 

OTBC

[KernowCanary 214]

Brentford, Southampton and Leeds are the ones we need to be looking at for the points, Man City last night was a loss even before the match started.

Get 12 points from those three and we can be looking up the table and have 29. 34 is the record lowest anyone has stayed up on and West Brom almost broke their own record when we went down in 2013-14 and they stayed up on 36. If they didn’t come from behind against Swansea to win 2-1, they would have stayed up above us on goal difference on 33.

Edited February 13, 2022 by KernowCanary

[Petriix 2,851]

Sadly I don't think that we will get to 34 points, nor do I think that 34 points will be enough to survive. The bottom 3 might well all have less than 34 points, but it's the side in 17th place that we need to overtake.

[GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,797]

1 hour ago, Disco Dales Jockstrap said:

I've seen this strange logic on here before and can't get my head round what the thinking is. Burnley finished in 17th with 39 points. 29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37 and 38 wouldn't have been enough. BECAUSE BURNLEY HAD 39! It doesn't matter what 18th place had.

Anyway...

Disco's NCFC predication spreadsheet has us finishing with 31 points. 14 points from the last 14 games, pretty much matching what Smith has done since joining the club. It was the 5 points from the first 11 games that cost us. 

OTBC

What on earth are you talking about?

Fulham finished 3rd from bottom with 28 pts

[Capt. Pants 4,274]

1 hour ago, Disco Dales Jockstrap said:

I've seen this strange logic on here before and can't get my head round what the thinking is. Burnley finished in 17th with 39 points. 29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37 and 38 wouldn't have been enough. BECAUSE BURNLEY HAD 39! It doesn't matter what 18th place had.

Anyway...

Disco's NCFC predication spreadsheet has us finishing with 31 points. 14 points from the last 14 games, pretty much matching what Smith has done since joining the club. It was the 5 points from the first 11 games that cost us. 

OTBC

My logic for 38 was a point a game for Everton and Newcastle pulling away.

I think we need to predict what the team in 17th will have not what 18th will end up with.

[GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,797]

When I last checked you had to finish above 3 teams to avoid relegation not 4?

[Branston Pickle 3,679]

It’s possible if unlikely, but the recent run has given us a fighting chance once we’ve got Citeh/Liverpool out of the way.  At least we know we can compete and get points now.

[Capt. Pants 4,274]

We are currently one of the bottom 3 teams and we could comfortably finish 18th.

A pt a game gives Brentford, Leeds and Everton with 37, 38 and 38 points respectively, hence that's potentially what we need to move from 18th to 17th.

Obviously a point a game is a massive assumption as is predicting  Newcastle pulling away.

[BigFish 1,988]

2 hours ago, Disco Dales Jockstrap said:

I've seen this strange logic on here before and can't get my head round what the thinking is. Burnley finished in 17th with 39 points. 29,30,31,32,33,34,35,36,37 and 38 wouldn't have been enough. BECAUSE BURNLEY HAD 39! It doesn't matter what 18th place had.

Anyway...

Disco's NCFC predication spreadsheet has us finishing with 31 points. 14 points from the last 14 games, pretty much matching what Smith has done since joining the club. It was the 5 points from the first 11 games that cost us. 

OTBC

It is not strange, and it is logic. If Burnley finished on 29 points they would have stayed up, so 29 points was enough to get 17th.

This year I think the answer is 32, but not for us with our terrible GD. So 33 for us, 32 for everyone else.

[BigFish 1,988]

1 hour ago, KernowCanary said:

Get 12 points from those three and we can be looking up the table

Thats a big ask

[Disco Dales Jockstrap 1,898]

2 minutes ago, BigFish said:

It is not strange, and it is logic. If Burnley finished on 29 points they would have stayed up, so 29 points was enough to get 17th.

This year I think the answer is 32, but not for us with our terrible GD. So 33 for us, 32 for everyone else.

But Burnley didn't finish on 29 points...they finished on 39. The 18th place team would have needed 39 (+ goal difference) to displace Burnley to stay up. Them be the facts. No ifs, buts or maybes.

OTBC

[GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 1,797]

3 minutes ago, Disco Dales Jockstrap said:

But Burnley didn't finish on 29 points...they finished on 39. The 18th place team would have needed 39 (+ goal difference) to displace Burnley to stay up. Them be the facts. No ifs, buts or maybes.

OTBC

What???... I said that 29 pts would have been enough to stay up last season

Burnley would themselves have stayed up with only 29 pts.

I dont really see whats difficult to comprehend here

[Disco Dales Jockstrap 1,898]

1 hour ago, GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary said:

When I last checked you had to finish above 3 teams to avoid relegation not 4?

Well done; we're making progress. Let's see if we can go a step further. So how many points would Fulham (18th) have needed to go above Burnley (17th) to displace them? I'll give you a clue. It's more than 29.

You can't ignore the 17th placed team's points total like it's irrelevant; it's the most relevant number in the relegation game.

OTBC