So is Putin going to invade Ukraine anytime soon or..?

[Christoph Stiepermann 1,161]

13 minutes ago, TheGunnShow said:

Question: is Putin only one head of the hydra? I don't get the impression that a Lavrov or Medvedev would be much better.

A legitimate question. You don't rise to near the top of a dictatorship like the one seen in Russia that from a historical perspective was always built on the premise of ruling through fear and oppression without being an emotionless, psychopathic, sub-human piece of excrement. This further complicates things and indicates that maybe, unless Putin has instead surrounded himself with weaklings instead of similar minds that we're all screwed regardless of who leads that government. 

In which case it falls to the Russian people and I am not going to condemn them for not rallying in their 1000's to storm buildings and start a revolution because they'd all be killed or worse. I'm trying to be careful throughout this ordeal not to make Russians the enemy and I think we all should, it's not their fault that they're lead by an evil autocracy and they never had any say in the matter to begin with. 

It's like expecting Darth Vader to overthrow his Emperor by expecting him to see rationally. No, he's just as brainwashed and lead by fear as the rest. 

Edited February 27, 2022 by Christoph Stiepermann

[TheGunnShow 6,142]

1 minute ago, Christoph Stiepermann said:

A legitimate question. You don't rise to near the top of a dictatorship like the one seen in Russia that from a historical perspective was always built on the premise of ruling through fear and oppression without being an emotionless, psychopathic, sub-human piece of excrement. This further complicates things and indicates that maybe, unless Putin has instead surrounded himself with weaklings instead of similar minds that we're all screwed regardless of who leads that government. 

In which case it falls to the Russian people and I am not going to condemn them for not rallying in their 1000's to storm buildings and start a revolution because they'd all be killed or worse. I'm trying to be careful throughout this ordeal not to make Russians the enemy and I think we all should, it's not their fault that they're lead by an evil autocracy and they never had any say in the matter to begin with. 

Absolutely, as I said in an earlier comment, there's often a considerable difference between the populace and its elites. Any dictatorship is generally a very clear example of such.

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

I'm a little more relaxed about the military situation than most on here seem to be. The reason for that is two-fold. In the first instance we can be sure the the US-UK have all their reconnaissance devices tuned in to the Ukrainian theatre, whether that be satellites, drones, internet and communications tapping to such an extent that nothing can move in Ukraine without the allies knowing about it. I saw a satellite picture this evening of a three mile column of troops moving towards Kyiv. Obviously, a picture that the security services have allowed to be published. They are aware of everything.

Secondly, a few days before the invasion some of our troops and American troops were in Ukraine, installing missile systems and training Ukrainians in how to deploy them. So it only takes a call from the Pentagon to Ukrainian troops on the ground to give key co-ordinates to enter into the missile systems and let them do their work. Heck, the Pentagon staffers could even be loading the data themselves. and controlling drones from the United States, and no one would know. 

One of the things to look out for in times of conflict, is not just what governments are saying via the media, but what is not being said. For example, no explanation is giving for so many Russian vehicles running out of fuel. Could it be that supply columns have been wiped out by missile strikes and the scale of such attacks are not being reported for not wanting to give the Russians too much information?

Obviously, the US cannot admit to any military involvement as it risks an escalation by the Russians, but on the other hand I don't believe we would just sit on our hands and hope the Ukrainians will pull through. There's to much at stake for us not be involved if we can do it surreptitiously. 

[7HAR1980 118]

12 hours ago, kirku said:

No, because you've got no idea what you're talking about - as evidenced by you dismissing a video you can't understand. 

You've taken one too many alien abductions, it seems

Don't know what I'm talking about because I dismiss a video that shows nothing and I don't understand a foreign language?

Ok champ.

Edited February 28, 2022 by 7HAR1980

[1902 1,167]

That video has had more work done to it than Putin's face. It genuinely looks like it was made on Microsoft paint.

@7HAR1980, seriously, give it up. Nobody here thinks that Ukraine is a Na-zi state, you clearly want Putin to win this war because you have an unhealthy love of militaristic strongmen and will promote any old propaganda to support that.

You are miles away from the political opinions of this country or the west in general and how ever many doctored videos you show, we are still going to think that missile strikes on apartments during an unprovoked attack are unacceptable.

I have no interest in debating with a supporter of that horrendous man, so that's the last I'll say on this matter.

Edited February 28, 2022 by 1902

[kirku 1,339]

1 hour ago, 1902 said:

I have no interest in debating with a supporter of that horrendous man, so that's the last I'll say on this matter.

+1

Mr "question everything" needs to question his own sanity

[1902 1,167]

8 hours ago, Rock The Boat said:

I'm a little more relaxed about the military situation than most on here seem to be. The reason for that is two-fold. In the first instance we can be sure the the US-UK have all their reconnaissance devices tuned in to the Ukrainian theatre, whether that be satellites, drones, internet and communications tapping to such an extent that nothing can move in Ukraine without the allies knowing about it. I saw a satellite picture this evening of a three mile column of troops moving towards Kyiv. Obviously, a picture that the security services have allowed to be published. They are aware of everything.

Secondly, a few days before the invasion some of our troops and American troops were in Ukraine, installing missile systems and training Ukrainians in how to deploy them. So it only takes a call from the Pentagon to Ukrainian troops on the ground to give key co-ordinates to enter into the missile systems and let them do their work. Heck, the Pentagon staffers could even be loading the data themselves. and controlling drones from the United States, and no one would know. 

One of the things to look out for in times of conflict, is not just what governments are saying via the media, but what is not being said. For example, no explanation is giving for so many Russian vehicles running out of fuel. Could it be that supply columns have been wiped out by missile strikes and the scale of such attacks are not being reported for not wanting to give the Russians too much information?

Obviously, the US cannot admit to any military involvement as it risks an escalation by the Russians, but on the other hand I don't believe we would just sit on our hands and hope the Ukrainians will pull through. There's to much at stake for us not be involved if we can do it surreptitiously. 

I suspect fuel shortages are for a few simple reasons. The Russians believed this would be quick and easy, they failed to plan for a conflict that drew out for a few days and their logistics has not developed in line with the rest of their army.

We also know from reports from locals that in the days running up to the invasion, Russian troops were selling fuel. Corruption is also possibly a part.

Additionally, the Ukrainian army knows the land a lot better and has been targeting fuel convoys as weak targets. Ukraine is also physically massive and armoured vehicles drain fuel at an insane rate 

Overall it's just a standard military **** up based on faulty intelligence and unprofessionalism. I don't think the West are involved at all.

[Indy 3,352]

There needs to be a start of dialogue, the sanctions are hitting them hard and we need to show them there’s a way out of this and be bought back into the world or the inevitable will happen.

The more you back a wounded animal into a corner the more desperate it becomes. It’s clear that there must be a way out and someone with a modicum of sense needs to step forwards now!

[Yellow Fever 3,859]

20 minutes ago, 1902 said:

Overall it's just a standard military **** up based on faulty intelligence and unprofessionalism. I don't think the West are involved at all.

More or less I would agree. No doubt they are getting some western intelligence (and all the satellite images you see are commercial !). The  'West clearly doesn't want to get caught out with its fingers in the pie" to exacerbate the situation.

I'll leave however a lingering thought on Truss's odd statement that she wouldn't oppose UK nationals deciding for themselves to go and fight .... undercover and deniable SBS, SAS etc. for unique situations. I would expect or be surprised of nothing less.

[1902 1,167]

31 minutes ago, Indy said:

There needs to be a start of dialogue, the sanctions are hitting them hard and we need to show them there’s a way out of this and be bought back into the world or the inevitable will happen.

The more you back a wounded animal into a corner the more desperate it becomes. It’s clear that there must be a way out and someone with a modicum of sense needs to step forwards now!

This pretty much. Ukraine can't hold out as a state entity much longer, but the reality is that a continuation will mean an insurgency fought by an impoverished and brutal Russia. 

It's not going to be pretty, for Ukraine or Russia

The most important things are that Ukraine can maintain its territory, it's democracy and the right to self defence using the equipment of its choosing. Punishing Putin further than that is just stupid, we need him to have a path out of this and so that he can save face.

Regardless, the Russian economy will really suffer even without sanctions, there will be concerted efforts to drop Russian gas, Russian debt will be seen as high risk and the tiny FDI flows will also stop. Anyone who can will be looking to drop them as just unreliable. 

Edited February 28, 2022 by 1902

[1902 1,167]

29 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

More or less I would agree. No doubt they are getting some western intelligence (and all the satellite images you see are commercial !). The  'West clearly doesn't want to get caught out with its fingers in the pie" to exacerbate the situation.

I'll leave however a lingering thought on Truss's odd statement that she wouldn't oppose UK nationals deciding for themselves to go and fight .... undercover and deniable SBS, SAS etc. for unique situations. I would expect or be surprised of nothing less.

There's that, but I don't think Truss meant to use that as cover. I genuinely think it was an off the cuff moment that may not have been thought out. The plausible deniability doesn't work for Russia and wouldn't work for us. 

[Yellow Fever 3,859]

6 minutes ago, 1902 said:

There's that, but I don't think Truss meant to use that as cover. I genuinely think it was an off the cuff moment that may not have been thought out. The plausible deniability doesn't work for Russia and wouldn't work for us. 

Yes- I hadn't factored in Truss's general level of stupidity. However 'plausible deniability' when identified is exactly what the Russian's used on the Skripal 'tourists'.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

12 hours ago, ricardo said:

This macho rhetoric is getting way out of hand. I lived through the Cuban missile crisis and that was scary enough but at least Khrushchev was fully in command of his faculties. The parties need to stop upping the anti and take a step back. This has to be contained or we are all in serious trouble.

I remember the testing of the sirens on a regular basis. Our bath was filled with water at night and Dad took off our bedroom door so we could all shelter behind it. Life carried on fairly normally from what I remember but remember being very scared for a couple of days.

Do the sirens exist anymore?

[A Load of Squit 5,256]

 

[lake district canary 4,572]

The recent *** up in Ukraine is as much the fault of the west and Nato as much as Putin.  Don't get me wrong, I abhor everything about what is going on, but it is the result of Nato and the USA encouraging Ukraine to think they could become part of the west, when really their country is in such a strategically important place for the security of the east and west.

For peace, Ukraine needs to be neutral - neither allied to the east or west - this video talk explains it perfectly -

 

[TheGunnShow 6,142]

4 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

The recent *** up in Ukraine is as much the fault of the west and Nato as much as Putin.  Don't get me wrong, I abhor everything about what is going on, but it is the result of Nato and the USA encouraging Ukraine to think they could become part of the west, when really their country is in such a strategically important place for the security of the east and west.

For peace, Ukraine needs to be neutral - neither allied to the east or west - this video talk explains it perfectly -

 

That seems to have been around the time Russia unilaterally annexed Crimea so therefore will not cover yet another annexation of the sovereign territory of another country. Furthermore, the problem is basically that Putin is an absolute autocrat.

Why would Russia feel threatened with NATO members around them if the aims of their political elites are not utterly opposed? Furthermore, why would most of the old Iron Curtain countries so willingly join NATO after the Curtain fell? Mainly - the threat posed by Russia at that time.

The last countries that joined NATO which border Russia joined in 2004, namely the Baltic States. New members after that don't even border Russia (Croatia/Albania in 2009, Montenegro in 2017, and North Macedonia in 2020). Indeed North Macedonia sorted out their naming problem with the Greeks which was a condition to Greeks lifting objections to enter (the Prespa Agreement).

I just don't think there's any way around the invasion of the territory of another sovereign state, as was done with Donetsk and Luhansk. And a Putin-led Russia has plenty of form for that. South Ossetia/Abhkazia for one, Crimea for another.

[lake district canary 4,572]

3 minutes ago, TheGunnShow said:

That seems to have been around the time Russia unilaterally annexed Crimea so therefore will not cover yet another annexation of the sovereign territory of another country. Furthermore, the problem is basically that Putin is an absolute autocrat.

Why would Russia feel threatened with NATO members around them if the aims of their political elites are not utterly opposed? Furthermore, why would most of the old Iron Curtain countries so willingly join NATO after the Curtain fell? Mainly - the threat posed by Russia at that time.

The last countries that joined NATO which border Russia joined in 2004, namely the Baltic States. New members after that don't even border Russia (Croatia/Albania in 2009, Montenegro in 2017, and North Macedonia in 2020). Indeed North Macedonia sorted out their naming problem with the Greeks which was a condition to Greeks lifting objections to enter (the Prespa Agreement).

I just don't think there's any way around the invasion of the territory of another sovereign state, as was done with Donetsk and Luhansk. And a Putin-led Russia has plenty of form for that. South Ossetia/Abhkazia for one, Crimea for another.

What that video shows is that Ukraine is in an impossible position with regards to Russia. The invasion is despicable, of course it is, but the historic reasons leading up to it are very clear. Neutrality - or perhaps partition of the country may be the best options in the end, after all, most of east Ukraine is supportive of Russia, most of west Ukraine is supportive of the west. It's a dog's breakfast of a situation and Putin has made a big mistake, but the west is culpable to a point - the balance of power is everything and Ukraine edging too much to the west was risking that.

This could have been foreseen - and was, but nothing was done and now we have this situation. Putin may or may not be deranged or living in the past and the best thing would be a Russian revolution to kick him out, but as long as he or people like him have power in Russia, the west should be more careful.

[TheGunnShow 6,142]

11 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

What that video shows is that Ukraine is in an impossible position with regards to Russia. The invasion is despicable, of course it is, but the historic reasons leading up to it are very clear. Neutrality - or perhaps partition of the country may be the best options in the end, after all, most of east Ukraine is supportive of Russia, most of west Ukraine is supportive of the west. It's a dog's breakfast of a situation and Putin has made a big mistake, but the west is culpable to a point - the balance of power is everything and Ukraine edging too much to the west was risking that.

This could have been foreseen - and was, but nothing was done and now we have this situation. Putin may or may not be deranged or living in the past and the best thing would be a Russian revolution to kick him out, but as long as he or people like him have power in Russia, the west should be more careful.

Could argue similar - if not indeed more so considering the population distribution - in Latvia, especially around Daugavpils.

[KiwiScot 1,500]

From the Guardian

"About 800 people were arrested as Belarus voted to ditch its non-nuclear status in a referendum"

[1902 1,167]

7 minutes ago, KiwiScot said:

From the Guardian

"About 800 people were arrested as Belarus voted to ditch its non-nuclear status in a referendum"

Brave souls.

[1902 1,167]

1 hour ago, lake district canary said:

The recent *** up in Ukraine is as much the fault of the west and Nato as much as Putin.  Don't get me wrong, I abhor everything about what is going on, but it is the result of Nato and the USA encouraging Ukraine to think they could become part of the west, when really their country is in such a strategically important place for the security of the east and west.

For peace, Ukraine needs to be neutral - neither allied to the east or west - this video talk explains it perfectly -

 

Ohh give over Lakey. This is old school sphere of influence rubbish. There's a reason Estonia, Lithuania, Latvia, Poland, Romania, Hungary, Ukraine, North Macedonia, Kosovo and Georgia have wanted to join NATO and it's not because we forced them to. 

Its because living next to Russia or near it's buddy Serbia has historically meant domination and repression. Russia could have accepted the new world order, made a tonne of money from its oil and gas, invested it in its people and eventually the hostility to it would have ebbed away.

Poland, with very few natural resources has gone from being 30% poorer than Russia per capita in 1991 to about 35% richer now, Russians could have had good lives.

Instead Putin decided on confrontation because his ego and his old school view of Russian nationalism meant he couldn't abide being anything but the big kid on the block. You honestly think Latvia would be a free country now if it wasn't part of NATO?

Just because something upsets Russia, doesn't mean their fears are justified or that we should sacrifice the sovereignty of other states, the right to join any alliance that they wish, in order to appease them.

Before someone says, would America accept that Mexico joined a new Warsaw Pact? Probably not, no. However I wouldnt feel any differently about air strikes on Mexico city as I do about them on Kiev.

[kirku 1,339]

The second phase is definitely here - indiscriminate MLRS strikes on Kharkiv.

[1902 1,167]

2 minutes ago, kirku said:

The second phase is definitely here - indiscriminate MLRS strikes on Kharkiv.

I'm surprised it wasn't in the first phase. 

[kirku 1,339]

Someone get this man some yellow paint

 

 

[Yellow Fever 3,859]

1 hour ago, lake district canary said:

The recent *** up in Ukraine is as much the fault of the west and Nato as much as Putin.  Don't get me wrong, I abhor everything about what is going on, but it is the result of Nato and the USA encouraging Ukraine to think they could become part of the west, when really their country is in such a strategically important place for the security of the east and west.

For peace, Ukraine needs to be neutral - neither allied to the east or west - this video talk explains it perfectly -

 

It all very interesting from what is now a historical view. It certainly indicates the historical 'deep issues'

Unfortunately it proves itself to be 100% wrong at about 23 minutes onwards. 

Many of his comments from others as to Russian and Putin's intentions in particular which he think were laughable it turns out were very prescient!

A Greater Russia 🙂

Hmm.

 

Edited February 28, 2022 by Yellow Fever

[kirku 1,339]

1 minute ago, 1902 said:

I'm surprised it wasn't in the first phase. 

Bought their own ****, and hype

[1902 1,167]

On the other hand, the Kremlin is blaming Truss for making the 'provocative' statements that led to the nuclear status being upped. 

 

 

Can you imagine a world where you know so little that you take anything that Truss says vaguely seriously? Now I'm worried.

[kirku 1,339]

21 minutes ago, 1902 said:

On the other hand, the Kremlin is blaming Truss for making the 'provocative' statements that led to the nuclear status being upped. 

 

 

Can you imagine a world where you know so little that you take anything that Truss says vaguely seriously? Now I'm worried.

I always said she had nuclear levels of stupidity...

[Well b back 3,325]

36 minutes ago, 1902 said:

On the other hand, the Kremlin is blaming Truss for making the 'provocative' statements that led to the nuclear status being upped. 

 

 

Can you imagine a world where you know so little that you take anything that Truss says vaguely seriously? Now I'm worried.

Russia blames Liz Truss for nuclear 'special alert'

Earlier, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace downplayed the nuclear "special alert" announced by Vladimir Putin, suggesting that the Russian president wanted to distract people from his forces' slower-than-expected progress in the invasion.

Wallace told the BBC: "We will not do anything to escalate in that area, we will not do anything to feed any miscalculation - we take it very, very seriously. But at the moment this is a battle of rhetoric that President Putin is deploying."

Now, the Kremlin has suggested comments from Foreign Secretary Liz Truss were the reason that Russia put its nuclear forces on heightened alert, according to the Russian news agency Interfax.

[Yellow Fever 3,859]

14 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Russia blames Liz Truss for nuclear 'special alert'

Earlier, UK Defence Secretary Ben Wallace downplayed the nuclear "special alert" announced by Vladimir Putin, suggesting that the Russian president wanted to distract people from his forces' slower-than-expected progress in the invasion.

Wallace told the BBC: "We will not do anything to escalate in that area, we will not do anything to feed any miscalculation - we take it very, very seriously. But at the moment this is a battle of rhetoric that President Putin is deploying."

Now, the Kremlin has suggested comments from Foreign Secretary Liz Truss were the reason that Russia put its nuclear forces on heightened alert, according to the Russian news agency Interfax.

Will I suppose the ground zero of Swaffam (constituency office) isn't much of diversion from Marham.