Corona Virus main thread

[Mark .Y. 352]

56 minutes ago, Badger said:

Don't stand corrected because I am not certain, it is my recollection! 😀

From memory, the numbers certified as dead due to covid were higher than after 28 day measure, so it was alleged that the govt. switched measures for this reason + it also left open the frequently quoted response that they died with covid, not of covid. It is certainly the case that the number of deaths recorded by death certificate are higher (170,000+) but some have alleged that hospitals and doctors have fiddled this figure by putting covid on the death certificate unnecessarily.

I find it easier to believe that the govt manipulated the statistics than all doctors and hospitals, but I'm sure that someone will disagree with me. In the end, I suspect that the excess deaths measure will be the most revealing, but I'm sure that the anti-vaxxers etc will have a line on this as well.

Found this on Reuters ;

 

Fact check: Changes to the counting of COVID-19 deaths in August reduced England’s death toll

By Reuters Staff

4 MIN READ

Social media users have shared posts incorrectly claiming that changes the UK government introduced in August over how it counts COVID-19 deaths are a “scam” to artificially raise figures.

The post, which was uploaded on Jan. 11 and shared over 350 times, showed three screenshots from a UK government blog titled “Behind the headlines: Counting COVID-19 deaths”.

The caption stated: "NOW LADIES AND GENTLEMEN IF YOU HAVE A POSTIVE TEST WITHIN 60 DAYS IT WILL NOW GO DOWN AS A COVID DEATH ON YOUR DEATH CERTIFICATE IN ENGLAND (SCOTLAND WILL REMAIN WITHIN 28 DAYS STILL)...THIS IS WHAT WILL BE RAMPING THE DEATH FIGURES UP - ARE YOU FEELING SCAMMED YET!! #WAKEUP" (here).

A similar claim was shared on Jan. 12 with the caption: “DEATHS FOR ANY REASON WITHIN 60 DAYS OF POSITIVE TEST. SCAM!”(here).

However, a change made by the government in the way it recorded COVID-19 deaths is not indicative of a scam.

Firstly, the government announced the new indicators on August 12, 2020, so the change in methodology is not related to COVID-19 deaths during the recent surge in cases.

Secondly, the change was made to provide two sets of data for analysis, not to “ramp up” the numbers.

 

Between April and August 2020, the government in England had been reporting all deaths after a positive test as a coronavirus death.

According to the government blog, this decision was made to ensure COVID-19 related deaths were not underestimated. During this period, other countries in the UK were using different methods to count deaths. Scotland, for instance, had only been counting deaths within 28 days of a positive test.

The government reviewed this in August and decided that all four UK nations would use the same method to count coronavirus deaths.

Government analysts examined all 41,598 COVID-19 deaths reported up to August 3, 2020 and found that 88% of those people had died within 28 days of a positive coronavirus test and 96% had died within 60 days of a positive test or had COVID-19 on their death certificate.

Following this information, the government decided to create two measurements.

To monitor the immediate impact of coronavirus cases, it introduced a cut-off of 28 days following a positive test to record coronavirus deaths.

 

To measure the longer-term burden of COVID-19, it has separately recorded deaths up to 60 days after a positive test, adding to this figure deaths more than 60 days after a positive test if COVID-19 appeared on the death certificate.

This change reduced the total number of coronavirus deaths in England at the time by 5,377, using the 28-day cut off, and 1,668 using the 60-day measure.

All this information is available on the government blog itself (here) and in the British Medical Journal (BMJ) (here).

VERDICT

False. The UK government introduced changes to the way COVID-19 deaths were counted in August 2020. It introduced two cut-off periods of 28 and 60 days following a positive test to register coronavirus deaths, compared with the previous method of counting all deaths after a positive test as a coronavirus death. This change created two sets of data to help the government monitor short and longer term impacts of the virus. The change has nothing to do with the high death rates seen during the surge in cases in December 2020 and January 2021.

This article was produced by the Reuters Fact Check team. Read more about our fact-checking work here .

 

[ricardo 7,395]

National

120,821 - 379 ( lots of backfilling after days of under reporting)

rate of decrease of  13.1%           1.6 million tests

Case numbers begin to decrease

 

Local

Norwich   West rate             1773.8  up again              Local   R  estimated 1 - 1.3

 

N&N in Hospital (sharp increase since last week)

04-01-2022                                81 03-01-2022 64 02-01-2022 59 01-01-2022 59 31-12-2021 44

Vax   1st Dose           17,945                90.4% done                               Norwich numbers   78.8%        Booster rate 53.4%      2nd Dose          26,728                 83% done                                                                 72.8% Booster    149,495    total          35,813,659                62.3%           In Hospital  10-01-2022                                       19,828 09-01-2022 19,056 08-01-2022 18,619 07-01-2022 18,697 06-01-2022 18,527 05-01-2022 18,064

Edited January 11, 2022 by ricardo

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

with a following wind

Trouble is its destination is not what you booked either! A kind of magical mystery tour.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

24 minutes ago, ricardo said:

National

120,821 - 379 ( lots of backfilling after days of under reporting)

rate of decrease of  13.1%           1.6 million tests

Case numbers begin to decrease

 

Local

Norwich   West rate             1773.8  up again              Local   R  estimated 1 - 1.3

 

N&N in Hospital (sharp increase since last week)

04-01-2022                                81 03-01-2022 64 02-01-2022 59 01-01-2022 59 31-12-2021 44

Vax   1st Dose           17,945                90.4% done                               Norwich numbers   78.8%        Booster rate 53.4%      2nd Dose          26,728                 83% done                                                                 72.8% Booster    149,495    total          35,813,659                62.3%           In Hospital  10-01-2022                                       19,828 09-01-2022 19,056 08-01-2022 18,619 07-01-2022 18,697 06-01-2022 18,527 05-01-2022 18,064

I'll let you all  make of this what you will................

11 January 2022

Log category:UPDATE

Changes to rapid lateral flow and PCR testing requirements

From 6 January in Northern Ireland, Scotland and Wales, and 11 January in England, people with positive lateral flow results for COVID-19 need to report their result but don’t need to take a confirmatory PCR test unless they develop COVID-19 symptoms. This is a temporary measure while COVID-19 rates remain high across the UK as the vast majority of people with positive lateral flow test results can be confident that they have COVID-19.

A similar approach was taken in January 2021, when infection prevalence was high, meaning it was highly likely that a positive lateral flow test COVID-19 result was a true positive. Confirmatory PCRs were temporarily paused and reintroduced in March 2021 after infection rates fell.

Reporting of positive cases remains unchanged. In England and Northern Ireland, cases identified through a rapid lateral flow test are included in case counts.

[ricardo 7,395]

120,821 new #covid19uk positive tests reported today (11-Jan). England down 30% on last Tuesday and day-1 LFD +ves are down 21%. Be prepared for a much bigger number tomorrow for the normal Wednesday catchup but that should just fill in the gaps and still be down week-on-week.

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

The daily reported test results have always been a very solid guide to the trend in cases, whether up, level or down.  The ONS numbers give more solid underpinning, but as they're always weeks behind, they're no use to help us know what's happening right now.

So I'm very encouraged from the test results that nationally it looks like the Omicron wave has peaked and is now starting to fall.  Here's hoping.  I think the Warwick model predicted a peak shortly before now with a sharp fall, so let's hope that one is also correct.

 

But remember everyone, this means the number of people with Covid right now is probably the highest it has ever been !  Don't slack off with precautions, hopefully this is the last serious peak and from here on we move into endemic territory....

[Essjayess 307]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Thanks Badger. I think you see the issue well. All the models can be made to fit the past - indeed that's their starting point as they get better. I'm just fed up with the cheap politically inspired shots at them (and never acknowledging the caveats or what they are trying to show). The models well before Christmas indicated we needed to tighten restrictions - plan B as was, rush boosters, work from home and urge people for more social distancing (which as acknowledged most did). It worked and oddly those models now look pessimistic - so far so good.! Human factors.

But 

Indeed we can already see some odd human effects - Boosters now stalling (complacency setting in again) where before Christmas we managed to 'persuade' large numbers  - especially the vulnerable - to get boosted in a hurry. How do you model that? What effect will Novak's position have? Poorly I expect.

As a corollary - even with super computers, decades of modeling and experience and huge amounts of global data we still can't accurately predict the weather a month ahead - and that's with no human factors.

As to the optimistic vs pessimistic view - well that is what you do in safety critical systems not skimp. Next time you're in a plane better hope the captain has allowed sufficient reserve fuel for bad weather and holding patterns / diversion else you might drop out of sky. No say some - lets wing it.

Boosters stalling?...i dont see that at all. Certainly it has slowed down but stalling would imply no increase in the total having had the booster..todays figure  say another 150k added to the total...that is not stalling. Also, while no doubt there is a semblance of complacency perhaps, that cannot be recorded and also not the only factor.

For example, is it still  the rules for  for having a Booster that its to be done 3 months after the 2nd jab?...if so then the slowdown is quite predictable as there was a steady and slow decrease in the daily numbers of those having their 2nd jab over time so its just a process equalising itself to the previous jab stats. It  would be quite predictable that the first 60% of the population having had a Booster would be much faster than from the 60 to 90% figure.

Heck, even first dose, although these days a slow trickle, still increases by one tenth of a percent each few days.

[Badger 2,406]

49 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Found this on Reuters ;

Thanks for the links at the end - I couldn't find the original article. I found David Spiegelhalter's quotation from the BMJ link as a useful summary.* He clearly sees the changes as an improvement but says that it misses deaths - I wasn't even sure of the 60 day measure. He acknowledges that there is no "true measure" but thinks that the death certificate measure is the best, but recognises that it might miss deaths. 

I checked the latest data which shows that 28 day measure reports about 25,000 fewer deaths:

Deaths within 28 days of a positive test - 150,609

Deaths on death certificate - 174,233

Despite what the Reuters link says, I could not find a 60 day measure reported

*If you are interested in statistics, I would thoroughly recommend his book "The Norm Chronicles." I've read it twice (😳) - but I don't have many friends.

Missed deaths

David Spiegelhalter, chair of the Winton Centre for Risk and Evidence Communication at the University of Cambridge, said, “The 28 day limit marks an improvement . . . but does exclude those who die more than a month after testing, even if they have covid on the death certificate. Including deaths up to 60 days, and later covid registered deaths, seems even better, but still excludes people who were not tested.

“This is a complex area, and there is no truly ‘correct’ count. The Office for National Statistics figure based on registrations should still be considered the best available, but of course even this does not include additional excess deaths that do not have covid on their certificate.”

He added, “PHE have been consistently poor in clarifying both who is included as a covid death and the inevitable delays in reporting, and their dashboard has given the strong impression that the daily count is the actual number of deaths the day before.

“This in turn has influenced how the number is reported by the media and is deeply misleading at this stage of the epidemic, when the reported and the actual daily counts can be very different. I desperately hope that PHE can do more to prevent misinterpretation.”

https://www.bmj.com/content/370/bmj.m3220

 

[Well b back 3,220]

 

120,821 

rate of decrease of  13.1%           1.6 million tests

Case numbers begin to decrease
 

With the greatest of respect Ricardo how do you know. As of today England joined the U.K. whereas you no longer have to report a positive lateral flow test or take a pcr if positive without symptoms unless you want to to claim the £500 ( few qualify ) or you can be a**** to register it. I suspect many started not reporting from when it was announced. I agree you are encouraged to report a LFT but it is not a legal requirement. I suspect tomorrow’s figures ( when it becomes even more official not to report ) will show another possibly bigger drop until we even out on the new way of reporting / not reporting.

Of course the hospitalisations and deaths still need to be counted and although I am not saying the 120,821 figure is correct, it is highly unlikely to be.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

Interesting.

Highlights under-rated importance of masks.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/jan/11/covid-loses-90-of-ability-to-infect-within-five-minutes-in-air-study

"“It means that if I’m meeting friends for lunch in a pub today, the primary [risk] is likely to be me transmitting it to my friends, or my friends transmitting it to me, rather than it being transmitted from someone on the other side of the room,” said Reid. This highlights the importance of wearing a mask in situations where people cannot physically distance, he added."

[Well b back 3,220]

Boosters stalling?...i dont see that at all. 
 

I am afraid to say my good friend that is happening. We are sitting in empty hubs with more staff than bookings and very few walk ins. 
There are 2 lines of thought, 1 is all those that wanted boosters joined the big queues and not many left bothering or 2 millions ( a huge number not boosted ) have had COVID in the last 28 days and suddenly we will get a bit busy.

Doing loads of firsts for 3 reasons, 1 NHS staff have to have dose one by tomorrow or face the sack in April, 2 a change of mind because of Omicron or 3 ( can’t give you specific data but what they say and likely the bigger % ) we need it to go on holiday.

You may say why sit doing nothing in big hubs costing big bucks, but unfortunately that is what the government require so they can tell you the massive campaign is ongoing.

[ricardo 7,395]

31 minutes ago, Well b back said:

 

 

120,821 

rate of decrease of  13.1%           1.6 million tests

Case numbers begin to decrease
 

With the greatest of respect Ricardo how do you know. As of today England joined the U.K. whereas you no longer have to report a positive lateral flow test or take a pcr if positive without symptoms unless you want to to claim the £500 ( few qualify ) or you can be a**** to register it. I suspect many started not reporting from when it was announced. I agree you are encouraged to report a LFT but it is not a legal requirement. I suspect tomorrow’s figures ( when it becomes even more official not to report ) will show another possibly bigger drop until we even out on the new way of reporting / not reporting.

Of course the hospitalisations and deaths still need to be counted and although I am not saying the 120,821 figure is correct, it is highly unlikely to be.

I don't  know anybody who has reported a negative tests so I expect the 1.7 million per day is a vast underestimate. I also don't  know anyone who has tested positive and not gone on to take a PCR to confirm it.

[Well b back 3,220]

11 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I don't  know anybody who has reported a negative tests so I expect the 1.7 million per day is a vast underestimate. I also don't  know anyone who has tested positive and not gone on to take a PCR to confirm it.

You no longer have to report it from today ( legally ) in England and the rest of the U.K. from last week, although you are encouraged to do so. If you have a positive LFT with no or a few symptoms you are no longer allowed a pcr test.

I am not saying they are wrong but just that nobody knows if they are right currently as the numbers have reduced big time since it was announced that you won’t need a pcr under certain conditions from today.

[Well b back 3,220]

Virtual Hospitals all over the UK

I have only just heard of this and shows how amazing technology is getting and how technology is stopping the NHS getting overwhelmed ( guess some will say it gets the numbers down as well ). Of course coming from which ever angle you support you will have your thoughts on why the government is not shouting about this from the rafters as a major success. These virtual hospitals are set up all over the country, Worcester as a for instance have 350 patients.

As I say what an amazing idea and was always planned as part of a Pandemic, but I will leave you to discuss why the government is not shouting about this from the rooftops as they have indeed saved the NHS from getting swamped.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m2119

 

[ricardo 7,395]

23 minutes ago, Well b back said:

You no longer have to report it from today ( legally ) in England and the rest of the U.K. from last week, although you are encouraged to do so. If you have a positive LFT with no or a few symptoms you are no longer allowed a pcr test.

I am not saying they are wrong but just that nobody knows if they are right currently as the numbers have reduced big time since it was announced that you won’t need a pcr under certain conditions from today.

It is threfore now time to focus more on hospitalisation and deaths.

[Well b back 3,220]

28 minutes ago, ricardo said:

It is threfore now time to focus more on hospitalisation and deaths.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59944057

I did get one bit wrong in my initial assumptions that if you want the £500 you will still need a pcr.
 

Once it’s gone through 50% of us I suspect we won’t even be looking at that.
My only concern is due to the lack of numbers getting boosted that immunity will wane from getting serious illness. If that happens I guess this thread will wane and start again in September / October next year if that is the case but who knows.

[ricardo 7,395]

16 minutes ago, Well b back said:

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-59944057

I did get one bit wrong in my initial assumptions that if you want the £500 you will still need a pcr.
 

Once it’s gone through 50% of us I suspect we won’t even be looking at that.
My only concern is due to the lack of numbers getting boosted that immunity will wane from getting serious illness. If that happens I guess this thread will wane and start again in September / October next year if that is the case but who knows.

As soon as I get to 13 weeks I will be looking to get jab No4.

[Iwans Big Toe 312]

Ahh, irony. If you get it, you get it.

Edited January 11, 2022 by Iwans Big Toe

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

I don't  know anybody who has reported a negative tests so I expect the 1.7 million per day is a vast underestimate. I also don't  know anyone who has tested positive and not gone on to take a PCR to confirm it.

Negative LTFs I and most people who visit hospitals and the like report almost daily. No doubt its very true elsewhere too. Its a pre-requisite for entry plus weekly PCRs. The major concern is with people cheating since many such tests are done at home and the ony proof is a text or email message. Wide open to fraud.

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

And then comes Deltacron, something else to get all fearful about, for our panto politicians to jump on and keep us under control.

what are the bookies guesses on the end of the all encompassing 'emergency legislation'? Anyone has any guess?

[ricardo 7,395]

National

129,587 - 398   (deaths beginning to feed through now)

rate of decrease of  20%           1.4 million tests

Case numbers continue to decrease

 

Local

Norwich   West rate             1730.6  down again   should see a decline soon          Local   R  estimated 1 - 1.3

 

N&N in Hospital (sharp increase since last week)

04-01-2022                                81 03-01-2022 64 02-01-2022 59 01-01-2022 59 31-12-2021 44

Vax   1st Dose           19,276                90.4% done                               Norwich numbers   78.8%        Booster rate 53.6%      2nd Dose          28,790                 83.1% done                                                                 72.8% Booster    139,584    total          35,953,243                62.5%           In Hospital  11-01-2022                                     19,735 10-01-2022 19,858 09-01-2022 19,070 08-01-2022 18,633 07-01-2022 18,710 06-01-2022 18,540

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

National

129,587 - 398   (deaths beginning to feed through now)

rate of decrease of  20%           1.4 million tests

Case numbers continue to decrease

 

Local

Norwich   West rate             1730.6  down again   should see a decline soon          Local   R  estimated 1 - 1.3

 

N&N in Hospital (sharp increase since last week)

04-01-2022                                81 03-01-2022 64 02-01-2022 59 01-01-2022 59 31-12-2021 44

Vax   1st Dose           19,276                90.4% done                               Norwich numbers   78.8%        Booster rate 53.6%      2nd Dose          28,790                 83.1% done                                                                 72.8% Booster    139,584    total          35,953,243                62.5%           In Hospital  11-01-2022                                     19,735 10-01-2022 19,858 09-01-2022 19,070 08-01-2022 18,633 07-01-2022 18,710 06-01-2022 18,540

Nationsl figures continue to be encouraging 

[ricardo 7,395]

Latest from the wiring diagram

 

 

 

[FenwayFrank 2,459]

22 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Latest from the wiring diagram

 

 

 

Is that the wiring loom for a Triumph Bonneville ? 

[ricardo 7,395]

1 minute ago, FenwayFrank said:

Is that the wiring loom for a Triumph Bonneville ? 

😄

[A Load of Squit 5,172]

JVT standing down, he wants to spend more time with his analogies.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

3 hours ago, A Load of Squit said:

JVT standing down, he wants to spend more time with his analogies.

We just need the idiot with the metaphors to stand down now.

[ricardo 7,395]

42 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

We just need the idiot with the metaphors to stand down now.

The star striker is waiting to see what colour card the ref will wave 😉

[Well b back 3,220]

Isolation drops to five days in U.K. 

Happy to stand corrected but that’s 2 days less than anyone else as our isolation starts from 1st symptoms, and US starts from date pcr test is received.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

We just need the idiot with the metaphors to stand down now.

JVT is my hero and my vote for next Norwich manager