Corona Virus main thread

[Tetteys Jig 830]

37 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Wearing masks in public isn't a real hardship in the scheme of things.

I guess it depends on the setting and how enforceable/useful it would be. I really can't see the mask on/mask off to go to the loo thing being that doable or effective. It will now have to rely on personal responsibility/common sense to use them where appropriate (like visiting a nursing homes communal areas etc.)

[Well b back 3,234]

17 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I don't  know which one Chile was using but they had high vax numbers but were still hit hard. Obviously a not very effective vax.

Don’t think you will find Chile used a single dose of Sputnik, I would prefer to work of the official data.

[BroadstairsR 2,185]

44 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Wearing masks in public isn't a real hardship in the scheme of things.

Its no hardsjhip for me and I shall continue to wear one on occasions, such as a supermarket visit.

When I first noticed some people wearing masks in Asia I considered them to be paranoid nutters. Learning more, it was to prevent them inhaling fumes from some of those highly congested capital cities where air quality was low.

It was also considered the right thing to do if you had any sort of cold or infection.

Perhaps if we had been encouraged in the habit years ago the flu season might have been less of an annual danger. 

Masks are here to stay. Wearing one when needed means being a resposible citizen.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 hours ago, BroadstairsR said:

Its no hardsjhip for me and I shall continue to wear one on occasions, such as a supermarket visit.

When I first noticed some people wearing masks in Asia I considered them to be paranoid nutters. Learning more, it was to prevent them inhaling fumes from some of those highly congested capital cities where air quality was low.

It was also considered the right thing to do if you had any sort of cold or infection.

Perhaps if we had been encouraged in the habit years ago the flu season might have been less of an annual danger. 

Masks are here to stay. Wearing one when needed means being a resposible citizen.

Good for you. I will wear one in certain places such as supermarkets, inside bars when ordering drinks (although I prefer sitting outside when possible, as I take my dog who likes a drop of Guinness). Unless table service becomes a norm of course

[Yellow Fever 3,805]

NHS Lateral Flow Tests

I've had the misfortune recently to have to visit a close family member in hospital almost daily. As part of the process a LFT negative test is needed almost daily to book to visit. So far so good.

The tests are free and can be picked up (7 per pack) at any chemist BUT.

A totally unbelievable and useless procedure. I'm sure these tests are reasonably accurate if the done professionally and responsibly but -

It is totally reliant & trusts you and nobody else to perform and report the result. Now I'm fairly conscientious and put up with the gagging reflex but I suspect a great many aren't and the temptation surely is for those with no symptoms or who just need a negative for travel to just skip or only show minimal care in performing the test and report a negative result. In short these test results are useless as any indicator of a negative result with the current methodology and frankly just as the US FDA suggest should simply be binned as misleading.

[ricardo 7,395]

National

27125 -  27

Local

Norwich infection rate up from 63.3 to 69.0

Vax

1st Dose     152,525

2nd Dose     193,066

Hospital Inpatients the last 7 days (yesterdays figures not updated)

30-06-2021	1,795
29-06-2021	1,722
28-06-2021	1,724
27-06-2021	1,589
26-06-2021	1,532
25-06-2021	1,527
24-06-2021	1,507

[Yellow Fever 3,805]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

National

27125 -  27

Local

Norwich infection rate up from 63.3 to 69.0

Vax

1st Dose     152,525

2nd Dose     193,066

Hospital Inpatients the last 7 days (yesterdays figures not updated)

30-06-2021	1,795
29-06-2021	1,722
28-06-2021	1,724
27-06-2021	1,589
26-06-2021	1,532
25-06-2021	1,527
24-06-2021	1,507

Hi Ricardo - not trying to be niggly but the hospitalization data (patients admitted - 304 'today') is always a few (typically 4) days behind - the government dashboard for instance has 'todays' data of 304 as last updated on the 28th June. In short as we are often discussing the lag between cases and hospitalization 4 or 5 days (on top of the natural infection progression for the unlucky ones) is actually quite significant with a rapidly advancing / increasing case number. Perhaps todays true number (which we will only discover later next week) is say 350 ? 

[ricardo 7,395]

[ricardo 7,395]

33 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Hi Ricardo - not trying to be niggly but the hospitalization data (patients admitted - 304 'today') is always a few (typically 4) days behind - the government dashboard for instance has 'todays' data of 304 as last updated on the 28th June. In short as we are often discussing the lag between cases and hospitalization 4 or 5 days (on top of the natural infection progression for the unlucky ones) is actually quite significant with a rapidly advancing / increasing case number. Perhaps todays true number (which we will only discover later next week) is say 350 ? 

This is why I only post the actual in hospital numbers. It appears from the data that most admissions are very short term as the seven day totals only show an extra 288 people still in hospital. Thankfully most people going into hospitals are quickly coming back out of the front door and not the back one.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

5 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

I guess it depends on the setting and how enforceable/useful it would be. I really can't see the mask on/mask off to go to the loo thing being that doable or effective. It will now have to rely on personal responsibility/common sense to use them where appropriate (like visiting a nursing homes communal areas etc.)

Well it would be very hard for a bank or PO to tell you to take it off as they may have before the pandemic.

And maybe airports should consider them for a while longer unless seated.

[Mark .Y. 352]

21 hours ago, Essjayess said:

Agreed that vax coverage will never be 100% but if  giving vax priority is to be for nations with high infection rates then ...UK  now has 3rd highest daily  new infection rate in the world, only Brazil and India have higher infections...we are now running at double the  daily infection  rate of the USA and we have 5 times less population...only those 2 nations  named has Delta  been more widespread in a nation than ours and so far no sign of any mass increase in rest of Europe.

Though I think we do an awful lot of testing compared to others ??

 

[Yellow Fever 3,805]

19 hours ago, ricardo said:

This is why I only post the actual in hospital numbers. It appears from the data that most admissions are very short term as the seven day totals only show an extra 288 people still in hospital. Thankfully most people going into hospitals are quickly coming back out of the front door and not the back one.

I think the 1795 was still only on the 28th though. 

Edited July 3, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[ricardo 7,395]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said: I think the 1795 was still only on the 28th though.  Not according to the Official site 30-06-2021             1,795

[sonyc 5,539]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think the 1795 was still only on the 28th though. 

Hi Yellow F,

I hope this useful article might give some comfort. He predicts numbers until the end of 2021. 

It's a decent read (and demonstrates I don't just read leftie sources 🙂)

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-bad-will-the-third-wave-be-

 

[Van wink 2,994]

I've seen enough data to feel reassured that the link between hospitalisation and infection has been broken.

Concerns about long covid remain and the risk that with high level of infections we are providing a Petri dish for new variants.

[ricardo 7,395]

37 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I've seen enough data to feel reassured that the link between hospitalisation and infection has been broken.

Concerns about long covid remain and the risk that with high level of infections we are providing a Petri dish for new variants.

There are hundreds of thousands of of infections per day world wide and new variants can and will arise anywhere and at anytime.

[ricardo 7,395]

National

24885 -  18

Local

Norwich infection rate up from 69.0 to 80.4

Vax

1st Dose     122,377

2nd Dose     160,763

Hospital Inpatients the last 7 days

	01-07-2021        1,905 30-06-2021 1,798 29-06-2021 1,726 28-06-2021 1,726 27-06-2021 1,590 26-06-2021 1,533 25-06-2021 1,527

[Yellow Fever 3,805]

8 minutes ago, ricardo said:

National

24885 -  18

Local

Norwich infection rate up from 69.0 to 80.4

Vax

1st Dose     122,377

2nd Dose     160,763

Hospital Inpatients the last 7 days

	01-07-2021        1,905 30-06-2021 1,798 29-06-2021 1,726 28-06-2021 1,726 27-06-2021 1,590 26-06-2021 1,533 25-06-2021 1,527

Thanks Ricardo - I note the inpatients as of the 30th went up too as the numbers come in and catch up 😉

 

 

[Van wink 2,994]

53 minutes ago, ricardo said:

There are hundreds of thousands of of infections per day world wide and new variants can and will arise anywhere and at anytime.

Indeed, but I would suggest not such great numbers in an area with large numbers of partially vaccinated individuals living in a relatively compact community setting. 
I’m feeling a lot more comfortable now that we have some good evidence of vaccine efficacy and we are not basing policy on poor quality evidence. 

Edited July 3, 2021 by Van wink

[ricardo 7,395]

21 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Thanks Ricardo - I note the inpatients as of the 30th went up too as the numbers come in and catch up 😉

 

 

Yes there is always some backdating.

[It's Character Forming 1,164]

3 hours ago, sonyc said:

Hi Yellow F,

I hope this useful article might give some comfort. He predicts numbers until the end of 2021. 

It's a decent read (and demonstrates I don't just read leftie sources 🙂)

https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/how-bad-will-the-third-wave-be-

 

Thanks @sonyc

 

this is really useful - a model with some very concrete predictions, based on full relaxation on 19th July.

 

The key points I take from this projection are active cases continuing to rise with the peak in late August of 3.2m active cases which then declines as herd immunity has been reached. So we can expect those daily infection numbers to really take off in the next 6/7 weeks, peak, and then drop back down to negligible levels by December.

 

Deaths projected to peak at about 200 per day in mid September and 
then dropping back to nominal levels in October.

Hospitalisations peaking at under 1,000 per day in early September before dropping back to nominal levels during October.

 

Just projections, but very plausible, and this supports the current planning. I hope this is right and we can now ride out the final wave of the pandemic.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 hours ago, ricardo said:

National

24885 -  18

Local

Norwich infection rate up from 69.0 to 80.4

Vax

1st Dose     122,377

2nd Dose     160,763

Hospital Inpatients the last 7 days

	01-07-2021        1,905 30-06-2021 1,798 29-06-2021 1,726 28-06-2021 1,726 27-06-2021 1,590 26-06-2021 1,533 25-06-2021 1,527

Cornwall's rate now 172. 68 hotspots according to the local news. Mind you, one house is a village down here.

[ricardo 7,395]

2 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Thanks @sonyc

 

this is really useful - a model with some very concrete predictions, based on full relaxation on 19th July.

 

The key points I take from this projection are active cases continuing to rise with the peak in late August of 3.2m active cases which then declines as herd immunity has been reached. So we can expect those daily infection numbers to really take off in the next 6/7 weeks, peak, and then drop back down to negligible levels by December.

 

Deaths projected to peak at about 200 per day in mid September and 
then dropping back to nominal levels in October.

Hospitalisations peaking at under 1,000 per day in early September before dropping back to nominal levels during October.

 

Just projections, but very plausible, and this supports the current planning. I hope this is right and we can now ride out the final wave of the pandemic.

It seems a sensible projection and will be interesting to see how it bears out with reality.

[ricardo 7,395]

1 minute ago, keelansgrandad said:

Cornwall's rate now 172. 68 hotspots according to the local news. Mind you, one house is a village down here.

Anyone painting crosses on the doors yet?

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

8 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Anyone painting crosses on the doors yet?

They are eating all first born girls in St Just.

[ricardo 7,395]

2 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

They are eating all first born girls in St Just.

Make a change from pasties I spoze.😀

[Upo 91]

7 hours ago, ricardo said:

There are hundreds of thousands of of infections per day world wide and new variants can and will arise anywhere and at anytime.

Millions. UK will supply 100k+ of them alone per day within a few weeks. Hospitalizations and deaths have gone up and will continue to do so.

It is special kind of stupidity and callousness to throw the population solely on vaccines...without actually waiting to vaccinate people.

[Upo 91]

On 01/07/2021 at 19:46, Yellow Fever said:

Delta is actually more dangerous than the earlier 'Kent' variety. Evolutionary pressures do indeed tend to make viruses more contagious and viruses that quickly kill off their host before they can spread also tend to be less successful - but those in the middle - there is far less evolutionary pressure on them to be be 'nice'. Hence the panic over Covid's close cousin SARs (10% mortality was it?). There is little to stop a Covid variant being by chance much much worse (or totally benign) as per a bird flu outbreak i.e. the H1N1  'Spanish' flu.

Yes. That's fairly accurate I think. It's unlikely the virus has hit any kind of wall with its 'fitness' yet. I don't understand why even take the risk. 

Here's why allowing mass spread of disease is a terrible idea. I didn't know UK had only 50% fully vaxxed. And with AZ too...inferior to mRNA vaxxes. Boris has turned UK into an abominable experiment.

https://mobile.twitter.com/chrischirp/status/1410989321394458629

Edited July 3, 2021 by Upo

[ricardo 7,395]

National

24228 -  15

Local

Norwich infection rate up from 80.4 to 81.1

Vax

1st Dose     137,389

2nd Dose     196,209

Hospital Inpatients the last 7 days (no update from yesterday)

01-07-2021        1,905 30-06-2021 1,798 29-06-2021 1,726 28-06-2021 1,726 27-06-2021 1,590 26-06-2021 1,533 25-06-2021 1,527

[CANARYKING 641]

50,000 new cases in two days