Corona Virus main thread

[sonyc 5,539]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Cheers. It’s an interesting term which I thought implied that the third wave will be the final wave, as I said I think the Spanish flu outbreak is a classic pandemic in many ways and is used (it certainly was in my day) at Uni when you study epidemiology: My point was only a small one but it was just to say that this pandemic may well not behave in a “classical” way because of the rapid introduction of, for now, effective vaccine. That so far has been a huge positive but in the final analysis we may end up with a situation where the virus gets it’s victory by repeated waves of resistant strains that eventually burn out the dry tinder. Just a thought and no evidence to support this theory atm. 👍

Must just say that I'm so pleased we have the likes of your experience VW, plus TJ, YF and of course WBB (vaccine research) on this messageboard ....and apologies for others I might have missed out (e.g. ought not to forget R for his general commonsense and of course data and stats ). It has struck home tonight as I've reflected on where we are and the projections on Newsnight and from specialists. A hard rain is gonna fall.

This whole pandemic is the biggest thing many of us will have experienced in our lives (too young for the war) so it's a bonus to be able to access such an array of informed opinion and even wisdom.

It often doesn't matter who is even right or wrong because we just don't know do we?...but we all have our own temperature guage, levels of tolerance. I'm a pure amateur in all of this and can only add stuff I've read about that I've found interesting or share my reaction to the turn of events and politics. Anyway, big respect to all and a thank you from me.

[Essjayess 307]

First definite signs now that 1 or 2 other Euopean nations  are now having daily infection rates  increase again. Just a week or two ago Spain were steady at around 3-4k daily new cases..over the weekend it hit double figures and Tuesday brings  14k new  infections..and The Netherlands were as low as 500 cases...its now gone above 2k today..very early days there but the signs are there.

Also medical scientists now looking at another variant, the Peru variant, called Lamda, a few cases of which have already been found in over 20 nations globally, UK included.

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

On 05/07/2021 at 22:00, Indy said:

I think this was part of the thinking of easing now, taking the hit while hospitals can cope with any increase, as come winter there’s other strains on the NHS.

One year ago I was saying that infections could be brought into the summer months by easing up on restrictions and thereby easing the hit on hospitals in the coming winter. I'm glad to see the powers-that-be are eventually catching up to my thinking.

In other news, the only thing that matters is to continue vaccinations until at least every adult has been vaccinated where practicable. Any other measure is fairly irrelevant as this sickness is going to catch everyone eventually, just as the common cold does, and the only protection will be a vaccination or take your chances if you are feeling lucky. Apart from not flooding the NHS, nothing else matters and hasn't mattered since the vaccination program started. The link between infections and deaths is broken. Masks, airports, social distancing, PPE are no longer relevant, and now that we have a vaccine, is a waste of time discussing it.

But well done Sarah and similar colleagues around the world for your continuing work to improve the vaccine and protect against variants. Good night.

[Upo 91]

On 06/07/2021 at 01:38, Tetteys Jig said:

yet you say "we are losing the war" in your other message... Ricardo is correctly stating that you can't beat covid, just minimise it to a point you can live with it through vaccination, non invasive NPI's (supported isolation, better ventilation, face coverings in high risk situations) and treatments.

What further things than that would you genuinely suggest that aren't going to damage society further in other ways?

Ricardo is incorrect in his statements that you can't beat covid. Countries like Finland and Norway have been doing it for 18 months. NZ, Australia, several Asian countries have done even better.

UK's gov is incompetent, callous and stupid. Don't let them gaslight you into believing they're anything but. Right now, by adopting Nordic (ex-Sweden) strategies, UK could suppress Delta within 2 months.

[Upo 91]

27 minutes ago, Rock The Boat said:

...

In other news, the only thing that matters is to continue vaccinations until at least every adult has been vaccinated where practicable. Any other measure is fairly irrelevant as this sickness is going to catch everyone eventually, just as the common cold does, and the only protection will be a vaccination or take your chances if you are feeling lucky. Apart from not flooding the NHS, nothing else matters and hasn't mattered since the vaccination program started. The link between infections and deaths is broken. Masks, airports, social distancing, PPE are no longer relevant, and now that we have a vaccine, is a waste of time discussing it.

...

 

You've misuneerstood how coronavirus functions. It's not flu. It uses completely different mechanism for generating mutations. Suppressing measures are critical to protect vaccine efficacy.

Here's a recent study:

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0888754321001798

"...essentially all 100 most observed mutations strengthen the binding between the RBD and the host angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2), indicating the virus evolves toward more infectious variants.

...

"we hypothesize that RBD mutations that can simultaneously make SARS-CoV-2 more infectious and disrupt the existing antibodies, called vaccine escape mutations, will pose an imminent threat to the current crop of vaccines.

...

"Our comprehensive genetic analysis and protein-protein binding study show that the genetic evolution of SARS-CoV-2 on the RBD, which may be regulated by host gene editing, viral proofreading, random genetic drift, and natural selection, gives rise to more infectious variants that will potentially compromise existing vaccines and antibody therapies."

 

[Barbe bleu 829]

6 hours ago, Upo said:

It's not flu. It uses completely different mechanism for generating mutations. 

 

Does it?    Are you sure or are you posturing?

[Upo 91]

45 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Does it?    Are you sure or are you posturing?

From the article:

"Unlike other RNA viruses, such as influenza, SARS-CoV-2 has a genetic proofreading mechanism regulated by NSP14 and NSP12 (a.k.a RNA-dependent RNA polymerase) [6,7], which enables SARS-CoV-2 to have a higher fidelity in its replication. However, the host gene editing has been found to be the major source for existing SARS-CoV-2 mutations [8], counting for 65% of reported mutations."

[Yellow Fever 3,810]

Just an observations on any new variant.

There seems to be an assumption that a new variant would need to be more generally infectious (higher R0) to outcompete the Delta.

Not true.

Any variant providing it's R0 is > 1 that can escape the vaccines will now thrive and 'out compete' the Delta variant in the the wide open very fertile fields of the vaccinated. This is what the evolutionary pressure on the virus, in the UK at least, with extremely large numbers infected with Delta adjacent and intermingling freely with the vaccinated is being set up to do.

Vaccines are usually used to immunize people against an infection as a last resort if other control measures have failed (isolalation, distancing, hygiene etc). They really should not be abused as the first and only line of defense else with such an infectious virus else I fear the vaccines will be quickly nullified.

Aa to the government vs the vaccine engineers - as the say you can' t make things fool-proof as fools are so bloody ingenious!

[ricardo 7,395]

8 hours ago, Upo said:

Ricardo is incorrect in his statements that you can't beat covid. Countries like Finland and Norway have been doing it for 18 months. NZ, Australia, several Asian countries have done even better.

UK's gov is incompetent, callous and stupid. Don't let them gaslight you into believing they're anything but. Right now, by adopting Nordic (ex-Sweden) strategies, UK could suppress Delta within 2 months.

We can no more beat Covid than we can beat the common cold, it is now endemic in all populations. The link in TJ's post shows that even the New Zealand authorities realise this basic fact. Its just another hazzard for us to control by vaccines and novel treatments.

[ricardo 7,395]

I have been watching the ZOE app numbers this past few days and basically it appears to be stalling out. 

Theories anyone?

[Tetteys Jig 830]

12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

We can no more beat Covid than we can beat the common cold, it is now endemic in all populations. The link in TJ's post shows that even the New Zealand authorities realise this basic fact. Its just another hazzard for us to control by vaccines and novel treatments.

precisely. I know the government are "incompetent, callous and stupid" and haven't been gaslit at all. I'm just realistic about things.

Kind of pointless suppressing delta now through another damaging lockdown only to then have to deal with the next variant anyway. The nordic countries all have a long way to go to hit an equilibrium end point unless you plan for suppression and permenant quarantine of arrivals?

[Yellow Fever 3,810]

20 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I have been watching the ZOE app numbers this past few days and basically it appears to be stalling out. 

Theories anyone?

What demographics most use the Zoe app etc ?

They need to keep an eye on recalibrating it to ONS as ever.

[Aggy 757]

21 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

What demographics most use the Zoe app etc ?

They need to keep an eye on recalibrating it to ONS as ever.

Isn’t the Zoe app supposed to adjust figures based on all sorts of things such as the demographic using it? If it doesn’t then it’s even more useless than I had thought.

[It's Character Forming 1,164]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Just an observations on any new variant.

There seems to be an assumption that a new variant would need to be more generally infectious (higher R0) to outcompete the Delta.

Not true.

Any variant providing it's R0 is > 1 that can escape the vaccines will now thrive and 'out compete' the Delta variant in the the wide open very fertile fields of the vaccinated. This is what the evolutionary pressure on the virus, in the UK at least, with extremely large numbers infected with Delta adjacent and intermingling freely with the vaccinated is being set up to do.

Vaccines are usually used to immunize people against an infection as a last resort if other control measures have failed (isolalation, distancing, hygiene etc). They really should not be abused as the first and only line of defense else with such an infectious virus else I fear the vaccines will be quickly nullified.

Aa to the government vs the vaccine engineers - as the say you can' t make things fool-proof as fools are so bloody ingenious!

This is a very strange post.

 

First, there are plenty of diseases that we deal with primarily by vaccination.  Examples are Flu, Measles, Mumps, Rubella, Polio (just the ones I can remember having, off the top of my head).

 

Then there are diseases which transmit in very specific ways and are controlled by measures aimed at reducing their spread.  The obvious example here is HIV, but I'm also thinking of things like Cholera which spread through contaminated water.

 

Because Covid is highly transmissible by ordinary social contact among humans, your suggestion of "isolation, distancing, hygiene" is basically saying we should make social distancing measures permanent, i.e. go back to living the way we were in Jan/Feb this year.  With no end date in sight.  That's just ridiculous.  Also, those sort of lockdown measures have heath and economic impacts of their own, across the entire population, which you continually ignore.  IMO we are now at the point where those costs realistically outweigh the benefits of continued restrictions (aside maybe from some minor measures like wearing masts etc which I am in favour of.

 

Of course, one of the reasons the Delta variant is becoming dominant is because social distancing encourages a more infectious variant - the less infectious variants have been out-evolved, due to social distancing measures favouring the more infectious ones.

 

Going forward, vaccines are currently highly effective against all the variants so far.  If a variant emerges that makes the vaccines less effective, it's incredibly unlikely that the new variant will be as bad as Covid was when it first started to spread because at that point there was no natural immunity.  Reduced immunity is still a level of protection !  It's quite possible we will need a booster jab in the autumn to deal with variants, fair enough if so.

[ricardo 7,395]

41 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

What demographics most use the Zoe app etc ?

They need to keep an eye on recalibrating it to ONS as ever.

It has been a good indicator of future growth of infections and has been fairly useful as a predictive tool. If it remains so then the 50k we were suposed to be seeing this week is still some way off.

 

[Yellow Fever 3,810]

41 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

This is a very strange post.

 

First, there are plenty of diseases that we deal with primarily by vaccination.  Examples are Flu, Measles, Mumps, Rubella, Polio (just the ones I can remember having, off the top of my head).

 

Then there are diseases which transmit in very specific ways and are controlled by measures aimed at reducing their spread.  The obvious example here is HIV, but I'm also thinking of things like Cholera which spread through contaminated water.

 

Because Covid is highly transmissible by ordinary social contact among humans, your suggestion of "isolation, distancing, hygiene" is basically saying we should make social distancing measures permanent, i.e. go back to living the way we were in Jan/Feb this year.  With no end date in sight.  That's just ridiculous.  Also, those sort of lockdown measures have heath and economic impacts of their own, across the entire population, which you continually ignore.  IMO we are now at the point where those costs realistically outweigh the benefits of continued restrictions (aside maybe from some minor measures like wearing masts etc which I am in favour of.

 

Of course, one of the reasons the Delta variant is becoming dominant is because social distancing encourages a more infectious variant - the less infectious variants have been out-evolved, due to social distancing measures favouring the more infectious ones.

 

Going forward, vaccines are currently highly effective against all the variants so far.  If a variant emerges that makes the vaccines less effective, it's incredibly unlikely that the new variant will be as bad as Covid was when it first started to spread because at that point there was no natural immunity.  Reduced immunity is still a level of protection !  It's quite possible we will need a booster jab in the autumn to deal with variants, fair enough if so.

You've missed the point and gone off topic as to the deeper truth but Flu for instance is (usually) actually far less transmissible, easier to control (even then we don't deliberately try to catch it) than Covid. Measles by contrast is far worse but we keep it at very very low levels and isolate anybody with it pronto -in effect quasi herd immunity already & neither does it significantly mutate easily. What we have with Covid is currently the perfect storm - highly transmissible, fast and easy to mutate and already allowed to be rampant in the community.

Of course the vaccine will control it for now - but sadly you've also set up the perfect 'Wuhan Wet Market' scenario now called the UK for vaccine escapees to emerge. 

We have two large and fairly equal populations in close proximity (think bats and humans) - one with none to weak immunity and heavily infected and another fully vaccinated living cheek by jowl. The viius just needs to 'jump'.

Edited July 7, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Yellow Fever 3,810]

14 minutes ago, ricardo said:

It has been a good indicator of future growth of infections and has been fairly useful as a predictive tool. If it remains so then the 50k we were suposed to be seeing this week is still some way off.

 

As you know Wednesday & Thursday always see big jumps - nobody seriously doubts (even Javid) that we're heading to 50,000 cases in short order and potentially much more.

The schools breaking up (or indeed already closing c.f. Wyndham College) all help (and oddly the last half term probably gave a false perspective as well for those that where desperately trying to find positives and ignore the negatives at the time).

We now have a government that has abdicated responsibility but left us on a collision course. 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

14 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

so literally their only alternative would have been distancing and masks for potentially several decades

Apart from those who could afford to go to the Doctors regularly.

[ricardo 7,395]

 

[It's Character Forming 1,164]

57 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

You've missed the point and gone off topic as to the deeper truth but Flu for instance is (usually) actually far less transmissible, easier to control (even then we don't deliberately try to catch it) than Covid. Measles by contrast is far worse but we keep it at very very low levels and isolate anybody with it pronto -in effect quasi herd immunity already & neither does it significantly mutate easily. What we have with Covid is currently the perfect storm - highly transmissible, fast and easy to mutate and already allowed to be rampant in the community.

Of course the vaccine will control it for now - but sadly you've also set up the perfect 'Wuhan Wet Market' scenario now called the UK for vaccine escapees to emerge. 

We have two large and fairly equal populations in close proximity (think bats and humans) - one with none to weak immunity and heavily infected and another fully vaccinated living cheek by jowl. The viius just needs to 'jump'.

So your solution is permanent social distancing ?  If not, what ?

 

Your analysis of the situation is also not correct IMO.  The last ONS survey showed a high % of the population with antibodies against Covid, which is what matters.  That % is increasing steadily as vaxx numbers and cases generate increasing immunity.  They are not separate populations, if you've antibodies, you have protection against the disease.  As those increase, we will ultimately reach an actual herd immunity level.

 

It is possible the virus will mutate to reduce the benefit of that immunity, but for most people, the disease is then likely to be less serious.  This is what happens with flu all the time - every year you have a new flu strain going up against a partially vaccinated population.

 

My solution to that risk is a booster vaccine in the autumn, plus, as I said, maybe some limited measures to continue such as wearing masks in some settings.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

some perspective of just how desperate it is in other places that are fortunate enough to be able to furlough and vaccinate as quick as us.

Anyone fancy suppression to this level in UK to "control the virus"?

[Yellow Fever 3,810]

19 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

So your solution is permanent social distancing ?  If not, what ?

 

Your analysis of the situation is also not correct IMO.  The last ONS survey showed a high % of the population with antibodies against Covid, which is what matters.  That % is increasing steadily as vaxx numbers and cases generate increasing immunity.  They are not separate populations, if you've antibodies, you have protection against the disease.  As those increase, we will ultimately reach an actual herd immunity level.

 

It is possible the virus will mutate to reduce the benefit of that immunity, but for most people, the disease is then likely to be less serious.  This is what happens with flu all the time - every year you have a new flu strain going up against a partially vaccinated population.

 

My solution to that risk is a booster vaccine in the autumn, plus, as I said, maybe some limited measures to continue such as wearing masks in some settings.

You're still arguing for a binary choice of total lockdown if somebody doesn't agree with you letting it rip. 

The situation is very analogous to antibiotic resistance. If you use antibiotics you should finish the dose to ensure you have in so far as possible wiped out offending the bacteria. Use a half the dose or do half the job and essentially you just encourage those with some resistance to flourish. Eventually that antibiotic becomes useless.

The vaccines should be used in conjunction with other methods to stop or limit transmission - not encourage it.

[Aggy 757]

9 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

You're still arguing for a binary choice of total lockdown if somebody doesn't agree with you letting it rip. 

The situation is very analogous to antibiotic resistance. If you use antibiotics you should finish the dose to ensure you have in so far as possible wiped out offending the bacteria. Use a half the dose or do half the job and essentially you just encourage those with some resistance to flourish. Eventually that antibiotic becomes useless.

The vaccines should be used in conjunction with other methods to stop or limit transmission - not encourage it.

Icf said permanent social distancing, not lockdown. What’s your counter proposal if not social distancing?

Really don’t understand your point on the antibiotic example. You just adapt vaccines surely like we do with flu every year?

 

[It's Character Forming 1,164]

1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

You're still arguing for a binary choice of total lockdown if somebody doesn't agree with you letting it rip. 

The situation is very analogous to antibiotic resistance. If you use antibiotics you should finish the dose to ensure you have in so far as possible wiped out offending the bacteria. Use a half the dose or do half the job and essentially you just encourage those with some resistance to flourish. Eventually that antibiotic becomes useless.

The vaccines should be used in conjunction with other methods to stop or limit transmission - not encourage it.

What “other measures”

 

and for how long?

[sonyc 5,539]

Reading a lot of posts in the last 12/24 hours shows how we all see things differently, much like the public at large. This view here from an epidemiologist here explores the problem areas and the practical problems that have not been thought through.

It's not the timing that has been bothering me (we have to use the season to best manage this for hospitals) but the strategy seems deficient...or lacking in many respects. How does the government set up things to support their strategy?  It's okay unlocking but so far, very little detail on the implications. Never any detail. 

It almost feels like the issues that look likely to emerge have been wished away. Do others feel the same? Is this 'Herd Immunity' left completely unchecked?

Where is the boosters plan? When will it take place? Will track and trace be improved? What do the clinically vulnerable now do? (Are there not a few people on this messageboard in this category?).  Loads of questions to answer when the health minister has suggested we could see 100,000 plus a day new infections coming?

Will they also stop giving out the daily stats? Nice way of stopping scrutiny or transparency!

Why is the 19th being called Freedom Day. For many it won't be at all?

What about opening up football arenas to full houses? Will this not seed more infection and attendant risk? Will Wembley become a super spreader? I'm guessing so but it's part of the strategy now?

As posted before, we do need to live with this but what about the mitigations? Any risk needs risk assessment and you take careful mitigating steps. The government appear to be saying "it's over to you"!

At least we know now that the mask strategy relaxation decision (no mandating) is because ministers debated and decided the economy comes first (iNews head story last night).

 

Full link below posted at bottom and I've cut and pasted roughly 50% of the extract here:

 

Rather we are presented with two bad options: open up in the middle of a surging pandemic accepting millions more will get infected, or delay until winter, when more people may die due to waning immunity in vulnerable people, and unvaccinated children spreading infection. Implied in this strategy is the lack of a plan for boosters or childhood vaccination, which could protect vulnerable people and children. The assumption that we will be in a better position to deal with this in winter if we open up now also makes no sense unless it invokes a significant proportion of children developing immunity through natural infection (rather than vaccination) by the winter.

The government has also created a false open up v lockdown dichotomy, which absolves it of blame for not resourcing simple but effective measures such as ventilation in schools and workplaces; fixing a broken test and trace system; and supporting people who are isolating – measures that don’t involve restrictions at all, and have been used by many countries which have not had to impose national lockdowns at any point.

The briefing made clear that how people protect themselves and others now is a matter of personal responsibility. This is a complete abdication of government responsibility. Given the prime minister has withdrawn work from home guidance and left this in the hands of employers, how does he expect clinically vulnerable or unvaccinated people who may be forced back into workplaces to protect themselves on transport and at work, where no one will be required to wear masks. How can children, including those who are clinically vulnerable, with no option of vaccination, and crowded into classrooms of 30 without sufficient ventilation or masks, protect themselves? And how can their parents?

So what is likely to happen under the current strategy? Vaccinations have weakened the link between cases and hospitalisations but this is far from broken. Hospitalisations are rising, and putting pressure on an NHS devastated by delayed action in the last two waves of the pandemic, with millions now waiting for routine care. The government focus on hospitalisations rather than transmission allows it to ignore cases completely until they reach levels seen in January. Given hospitalisation rates are severalfold lower now than prior to the start of the vaccination programme, this would mean a much higher level of daily cases would be tolerated before any action was taken. Implicit in this strategy is that cases don’t matter. Indeed, MPs have suggested cases should not even be publicly reported any more.

This strategy is dangerous and reckless. Contrary to suggestions by the health secretary, Sajid Javid, Covid-19 is not at all like the flu. Over the course of the UK pandemic, an estimated 2 million people have developed long Covid. Currently, almost 1 million people are living with long Covid – the consequences of the government strategy to ignore transmission. Of these, two-thirds report an impact on their day-to-day activities and lives and almost 400,000 have been ill for more than a year. Most of these are young people. We also know now that Covid-19 is not only a respiratory disease. It has long-term impacts on many body systems, including the brain, even in those with mild symptoms on infection. Ignoring transmission has created a generation with debilitating chronic disease.

Infections are now surging among young people. Given the current doubling of cases every nine days, Independent Sage predicts that we are on track to see 90,000 daily cases by 19 July, with one million new infections occurring by then. Patrick Vallance said yesterday that one in 210 people are currently thought to be infected in the UK, translating to 250,000 people currently infected with Sars-CoV-2. Considering that 13% of people develop symptoms lasting 12 weeks or more, infections from this week alone will result in 32,500 more people with long Covid. Without protection from vaccine immunity in our young people, these numbers will continue to rise until millions more are infected, with hundreds of thousands developing chronic diseases we don’t yet understand or have treatments for.

Transmission will also mean new opportunities for the virus to adapt. Allowing transmission to continue among young people while vaccinating older populations provides the best conditions for virus adaptation towards vaccine escape. We are undertaking a mass experiment that could undo the gains made through vaccines not just in the UK, but also globally.

The impact of these policies, will be felt most by people who are vulnerable, disadvantaged, marginalised or young. Herd immunity by infection is an active choice being made here. One that will lead to thousands of our young people becoming disabled, with future impacts we don’t even fully understand. At a point in time when safe and effective vaccines are available for most. Why?

• Dr Deepti Gurdasani is a clinical epidemiologist and senior lecturer in machine learning at Queen Mary University of London

 

https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/jul/07/ditching-england-covid-restrictions-dangerous-mass-experiment?

 

Edited July 7, 2021 by sonyc

[Yellow Fever 3,810]

2 hours ago, Aggy said:

Icf said permanent social distancing, not lockdown. What’s your counter proposal if not social distancing?

Really don’t understand your point on the antibiotic example. You just adapt vaccines surely like we do with flu every year?

 

 

45 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

What “other measures”

 

and for how long?

In an ideal world until we have vaccinated (and become active) over 18's and possibly over 16s. That's the end of August with some effort. Existing restrictions largely in place until then (the ship left on stopping the current wave when we opened up in May/June).

With flu - we have to predict which flu variant will emerge (usually from SE Asia which takes time to spread to us so we get some heads-up) and make an appropriate flu vaccine early. We are a bit blind this year hence the  warning a potential bad flu season.

Please tell me which likely Covid vaccine busting variant we should target today?

Edited July 7, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Aggy 757]

29 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

In an ideal world until we have vaccinated (and become active) over 18's and possibly over 16s. That's the end of August with some effort. Existing restrictions largely in place until then (the ship left on stopping the current wave when we opened up in May/June).

With flu - we have to predict which flu variant will emerge (usually from SE Asia which takes time to spread to us so we get some heads-up) and make an appropriate flu vaccine early. We are a bit blind this year hence the  warning a potential bad flu season.

Please tell me which likely Covid vaccine busting variant we should target today?

I think these are some of the sketchiest points you’ve come out with to date.

The warning for the upcoming potential bad flu season was not because we’re “a bit blind this year”. You’ve just made that up. It was because lockdowns have reduced our immunity levels.

Even when we are not a “bit blind” we fairly regularly have winter seasons where we get the wrong strand of flu and sometimes tens of thousands more die than would have done had we predicted the right one.

So your last question really makes no sense. What flu strand should we vaccinate against every year? Why do we get it wrong if it’s as easy as you suggest ? Why don’t you care about ten thousand extra people dying of “normal” flu? Why don’t we lockdown each year to avoid the risk there until we can be sure we’ve got the right strand of flu vaccine? All a bit contradictory really.

As to your proposals, interesting comments considering you earlier suggested concern about abandoning our younger cohorts to illness. Not worried about under 16s then?

 

[ricardo 7,395]

National

32,548 -  33

Local

Norwich infection rate up from 97.5 to 103.1

The N&N last had a Covid admission on 31st May and have had no Covid patients since 9th June.

 

Vax

1st Dose     85,811

2nd Dose     153,126

 

Hospital Inpatients the last 7 days

	06-07-2021           2,446 05-07-2021 2,328 04-07-2021 2,148 03-07-2021 2,030 02-07-2021 1,987 01-07-2021 1,912 30-06-2021 1,804

Edited July 7, 2021 by ricardo

[Surfer 1,547]

So if the hospitalization data is what those numbers suggest (and I have no reason to doubt that), why are the Government not answering journalist's questions?

[Yellow Fever 3,810]

17 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I think these are some of the sketchiest points you’ve come out with to date.

The warning for the upcoming potential bad flu season was not because we’re “a bit blind this year”. You’ve just made that up. It was because lockdowns have reduced our immunity levels.

Even when we are not a “bit blind” we fairly regularly have winter seasons where we get the wrong strand of flu and sometimes tens of thousands more die than would have done had we predicted the right one.

So your last question really makes no sense. What flu strand should we vaccinate against every year? Why do we get it wrong if it’s as easy as you suggest ? Why don’t you care about ten thousand extra people dying of “normal” flu? Why don’t we lockdown each year to avoid the risk there until we can be sure we’ve got the right strand of flu vaccine? All a bit contradictory really.

As to your proposals, interesting comments considering you earlier suggested concern about abandoning our younger cohorts to illness. Not worried about under 16s then?

 

Whatever you want to believe Aggy,  the facts don't change if you actually care to do some basic research.  I'm just pleased that more sensible heads generally prevail. Only the naïve confuse flu and Covid. It's not rocket science.

What I do find extremely interesting is that the same people that promoted 'Ivor Cummins' nonsense,  the we're at 'herd immunity' a year ago (and earlier in Sweden), the 'it's seasonal' or the pandemic finished last Spring are in fact the same ones that continue to get it wrong at great cost and grasp in the dark to find any excuse for a  'get out gaol free' card.

As they say - it's their funeral. I just don't wan it ne needlessly anybody elses.

The pandemic will end and we will open up soon but let's be sensible.