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Usually higher numbers Wednesday as the weekend positives get processed. SAGE will be getting twitchy if they don't go uo much.

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12 hours ago, Indy said:

Sorry YF,  You’ve lost me. As far as I can see, the link is from December 20 with figures compiled before then probably the same as WBB and the rest of us were talking about last year! 

Of course there’s going to be a fluid process with bigger numbers vaccinated in all age groups and better more accurate requirements for length of time required between doses will be updated. It’s like vaccine development and our understanding will continue to be better.

 

I can see we're talking about different things. What we're looking for and Steve asked for is real published data (links) about the longterm roll off of specifically mRNA vaccine efficacy as alluded too. Since the vaccines have only been in significant use for 6 months such data if it exists is very new. Currently I can't identify it ... possibly Covid immunity however acquired may actually be very longlived as per its cousin SARs (and there are some articles in Nature which would support that view - good news). This is not about reoptimising a vaccine for new variants but how well the body remembers. 6 months or 6 or 60 years. That is the new data that people want to know.

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Seems we were too late in responding to data on the Delta Variant and putting India on the red list. Not news as such but still damning to read and so disappointing given what was in the news for weeks beforehand and what we know about protecting borders / travel restriction.

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/22-days-delay-india-variant-24326152#ICID=Android_TMNews

 

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Posted (edited)
50 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I can see we're talking about different things. What we're looking for and Steve asked for is real published data (links) about the longterm roll off of specifically mRNA vaccine efficacy as alluded too. Since the vaccines have only been in significant use for 6 months such data if it exists is very new. Currently I can't identify it ... possibly Covid immunity however acquired may actually be very longlived as per its cousin SARs (and there are some articles in Nature which would support that view - good news). This is not about reoptimising a vaccine for new variants but how well the body remembers. 6 months or 6 or 60 years. That is the new data that people want to know.

Indeed, YF, as I mentioned I was told by my friend involved in the data analysis last years that the longevity of the Pfizer vaccine would be at best 18 months for age groups 65 and above due to a number of things and there would be a need to vaccinate on an annual or possibly biannually basis until the vaccine was developed to identify the nucleus rather than the s protein. 
From what I’ve seen there’s no new data on longevity yet, I’m sure studies are ongoing.
That’s why I linked the two as the next development of vaccine could be better at longevity as well as far better protection.

On a side note I was told by a friend I met that there’s new treatments being developed that will also help those with more severe reaction to Covid. So lots of good news.

Edited by Indy
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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Usually higher numbers Wednesday as the weekend positives get processed. SAGE will be getting twitchy if they don't go uo much.

Yes, Wednesdays are always a good day to compare with the previous Wednesday to see how things are developing.

 

So on June 9th we had 7,540 new cases reported, 184 people admitted to hospital and there were 1,059 people in hospital with Covid. For me these are the key numbers at the moment.

 

The Zoe app numbers seem a bit all over the place at the moment - Nottignham had reached a low point where it was showing about 50 active cases which then shot up to about 5,000 active cases a week or two back, but now they're showing that as a peak of under 3,600 cases on the chart, and now showing 2,100 active cases as of today.  It says they are updating their trendlines.  I'm not sure how the Zoe app is working at the moment, I've always felt it was a useful alternative source of data because it has more people inputting data than any other source, but I'm not sure right now.

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ONS numbers as ever are the only meaningful tally especially with the new Delta variant symptoms being different (more like a cold), more centred in the young and many people being reluctant to isolate (hence test). Zoe tries to calibrate itself against ONS as the gold standard.

Todays confirmed numbers can be up down left or right. Makes no difference.

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National

9055 - 9

rate of increase drops for fifth straight day. Now lowest since June 2nd.

Local

image.png.aa0bebbb4e82ab11f25e1964f781b7a9.png

image.thumb.png.205c1f3bb08639f713176b00d747c7d8.png

image.thumb.png.f4bbfba26ae4cf76ca8902ca674d723f.png

Vax numbers still not kicking on much.

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It looks like it's gone up to me or am I missing something? 

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4 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

Yes, Wednesdays are always a good day to compare with the previous Wednesday to see how things are developing.

 

So on June 9th we had 7,540 new cases reported, 184 people admitted to hospital and there were 1,059 people in hospital with Covid. For me these are the key numbers at the moment.

 

The Zoe app numbers seem a bit all over the place at the moment - Nottignham had reached a low point where it was showing about 50 active cases which then shot up to about 5,000 active cases a week or two back, but now they're showing that as a peak of under 3,600 cases on the chart, and now showing 2,100 active cases as of today.  It says they are updating their trendlines.  I'm not sure how the Zoe app is working at the moment, I've always felt it was a useful alternative source of data because it has more people inputting data than any other source, but I'm not sure right now.

So comparing the numbers to last Wednesday.

 

Cases 7,500 increased to 9,000 - increasing but not a huge amount over a week.

Hospital admissions 184 down to 173 (effectively continuing to be flat).

Numbers in hospital 1,059 slightly up to 1,177, again not a huge increase week on week.

 

Therefore still a solid basis for being cautious but we don't need to panic.

 

Also great to see in Nottingham they're now offering vaccines to all over 21s and they hope to be able to extend this to all over 18s tomorrow, which is the ultimate solution.

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Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Herman said:

It looks like it's gone up to me or am I missing something? 

The rate of increase has more than halved in last seven days which usually signals near peak.

Bolton peaked three weeks ago, Blackburn 2 weeks.

Edited by ricardo

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Posted (edited)
4 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

ONS numbers as ever are the only meaningful tally especially with the new Delta variant symptoms being different (more like a cold), more centred in the young and many people being reluctant to isolate (hence test). Zoe tries to calibrate itself against ONS as the gold standard.

Todays confirmed numbers can be up down left or right. Makes no difference.

Sorry but I don't agree.  In the UK we have a 65m population and we will never know the full extent of Covid infections with full accuracy at any time.  There are different sources of data and we need to look at them all to evaluate how it is going.  At least in the UK we have relatively reliable data sources.

 

The ONS survey is a random selection of people across the country, a bit like an opinion poll.  They have increased the numbers who participate.  It takes time for everyone to do the tests and return them, then they have to check all the results and calculate their projection across the whole population, and then publish it.  So this is a good picture of the Covid position but it's always significantly  out of date by the time we get it.

 

The daily tests numbers are not a random sample across the whole population, but they are more up to date than the ONS data and in the UK we're doing a consistently extremely high number of tests, hence trends in those numbers do give a good indication of how Covid is developing.

 

The numbers in hospital are ultimately crucial in giving pointers towards how badly the latest wave is actually affecting people and whether there is a risk of the NHS being overloaded, and this information is always reasonably up to date (although inherently there is a delay between new infections and hospitalisations resulting from those infections).

 

The ZOE app has the advantage that there are over 1m regular users and the information is turned around much more quickly.  It is sensible for them to regularly recalibrate this against the ONS in terms of how they try to project the data they receive across the whole population.

 

For me, you look at all of these and particularly important right now are the number of people going into hospital and the number in hospital at any one time.  And IMO the data support the current government approach of keeping things as they are, not opening up more but not closing down either.  And of course pushing out those jabs to over 18s as fast as possible.

Edited by It's Character Forming
adding a bit
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4 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Sorry but I don't agree.  In the UK we have a 65m population and we will never know the full extent of Covid infections with full accuracy at any time.  There are different sources of data and we need to look at them all to evaluate how it is going.  At least in the UK we have relatively reliable data sources.

 

The ONS survey is a random selection of people across the country, a bit like an opinion poll.  They have increased the numbers who participate.  It takes time for everyone to do the tests and return them, then they have to check all the results and calculate their projection across the whole population, and then publish it.  So this is a good picture of the Covid position but it's always significantly  out of date by the time we get it.

 

The daily tests numbers are not a random sample across the whole population, but they are more up to date than the ONS data and in the UK we're doing a consistently extremely high number of tests, hence trends in those numbers do give a good indication of how Covid is developing.

 

The numbers in hospital are ultimately crucial in giving pointers towards how badly the latest wave is actually affecting people and whether there is a risk of the NHS being overloaded, and this information is always reasonably up to date.

 

The ZOE app has the advantage that there are over 1m regular users and the information is turned around much more quickly.  It is sensible for them to regularly recalibrate this against the ONS in terms of how they try to project the data they receive across the whole population.

 

For me, you look at all of these and particularly important right now are the number of people going into hospital and the number in hospital at any one time.  And IMO the data support the current government approach of keeping things as they are, not opening up more but not closing down either.  And of course pushing out those jabs to over 18s as fast as possible.

Don't disagree with most of this - except that a random sample is the only valid figure of the true spread. Zoe tries to calibrate to it but is itself trying to identify a moving target that has changed its spots. The daily figures need smoothing as a minimum (the rolling 7 day - ONS is generally 2 weeks I recall ) but are by necessity self selecting. Let hope it stays at lower rates. 

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Grandson told to self isolate with us after his mate's girlfriend tested positive. They all went to Newquay on Sunday to watch the England game.

He has no symptoms and has had two clear lateral flow tests. And his mate tested negative.

That means Mrs KG and I are free to carry on as normal.

But cases have gone up to 60 from 7 a week ago.

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37 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Grandson told to self isolate with us after his mate's girlfriend tested positive. They all went to Newquay on Sunday to watch the England game.

He has no symptoms and has had two clear lateral flow tests. And his mate tested negative.

That means Mrs KG and I are free to carry on as normal.

But cases have gone up to 60 from 7 a week ago.

Twenty thousand Cornishmen will know the reason why.

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49 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Grandson told to self isolate with us after his mate's girlfriend tested positive. They all went to Newquay on Sunday to watch the England game

What was your grandson doing with his mates girlfriend? 😉

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4 minutes ago, FenwayFrank said:

What was your grandson doing with his mates girlfriend? 😉

Well it is Nookie!

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2 hours ago, ricardo said:

National

9055 - 9

rate of increase drops for fifth straight day. Now lowest since June 2nd.

Local

image.png.aa0bebbb4e82ab11f25e1964f781b7a9.png

image.thumb.png.205c1f3bb08639f713176b00d747c7d8.png

image.thumb.png.f4bbfba26ae4cf76ca8902ca674d723f.png

Vax numbers still not kicking on much.

Noticeable when we should be accelerating vaccinations it’s going the other way!

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5 hours ago, ricardo said:

The rate of increase has more than halved in last seven days which usually signals near peak.

Bolton peaked three weeks ago, Blackburn 2 weeks.

One reason why new infections have increased continually is not just about NW England but also Scotland, which has not seemingly got the attention that Bolton, Blackburn etc have had. Right across the Lowlands, from Glasgow to Edinburgh and other areas like Ayrshire the increase has been every bit as much as Lancashire.

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12 hours ago, Indy said:

Noticeable when we should be accelerating vaccinations it’s going the other way!

Last night on the news they said that we only have circa 1.5m doses per week for 1st jabs, so that ties in with the drop in vaccinations.

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Good news that numbers on the Zoe app in Wales are better than England and particularly Scotland reflecting possibly the higher level of vaccination in Wales. Very encouraging news about efficacy of both main vaccines after two doses against delta making me feel more confident about the way this latest wave might progress. Keep them jabs coming, shame that the vaccine numbers don’t seem to be pushing up as we had hoped. 

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39 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Good news that numbers on the Zoe app in Wales are better than England and particularly Scotland reflecting possibly the higher level of vaccination in Wales. Very encouraging news about efficacy of both main vaccines after two doses against delta making me feel more confident about the way this latest wave might progress. Keep them jabs coming, shame that the vaccine numbers don’t seem to be pushing up as we had hoped. 

There has obviously been a restricted supply due to not using AZ on younger people.

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12 hours ago, Essjayess said:

One reason why new infections have increased continually is not just about NW England but also Scotland, which has not seemingly got the attention that Bolton, Blackburn etc have had. Right across the Lowlands, from Glasgow to Edinburgh and other areas like Ayrshire the increase has been every bit as much as Lancashire.

Yes, it seemed a stupid decision to me when Scotland relaxed restrictions at the start of last week when it was clear their case numbers were rising, and I said so on here at the time, but for some reason the decisions of the Scottish government don't attract much scrutiny and their mistakes are not picked up on.

 

In England it certainly hasn't been perfect, but at the moment IMO the approach is sensible - not opening up any further, but equally not reimposing national restrictions, and keeping a careful eye on things.  Obviously our vaccine campaign has been run by people who really know what they're doing and I'm relieved it's now got to anyone over 18, but given the AZ can't be used for under 30s it's not surprising there are constraints.

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2 hours ago, Van wink said:

Good news that numbers on the Zoe app in Wales are better than England and particularly Scotland reflecting possibly the higher level of vaccination in Wales. Very encouraging news about efficacy of both main vaccines after two doses against delta making me feel more confident about the way this latest wave might progress. Keep them jabs coming, shame that the vaccine numbers don’t seem to be pushing up as we had hoped. 

Indeed.

Israel have 81% of adults double dosed ( all Pfizer ) and only have that 19% and 2.6 million children unvaccinated. Their take up in the younger groups was getting low so they introduced green passports and most then came forward. They felt in the adult population any adult not yet vaccinated was unlikely to get vaccinated so they lifted all restrictions completely 1st June to vaccinated and unvaccinated. The only restriction is that in small enclosed places you must wear a mask, but even that is now being looked at.

Their case numbers are below 20 per day and deaths average 2 per week. It is expected assuming children are not vaccinated that ‘ herd immunity ‘ will be reached by the end of the year. Their Pfizer quoted efficacy rates are fast approaching 100%.

They are the ongoing data for Pfizer so if immunity begins to shrink we will probably hear from Israel first. 

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6 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Yes, it seemed a stupid decision to me when Scotland relaxed restrictions at the start of last week when it was clear their case numbers were rising, and I said so on here at the time, but for some reason the decisions of the Scottish government don't attract much scrutiny and their mistakes are not picked up on.

 

In England it certainly hasn't been perfect, but at the moment IMO the approach is sensible - not opening up any further, but equally not reimposing national restrictions, and keeping a careful eye on things.  Obviously our vaccine campaign has been run by people who really know what they're doing and I'm relieved it's now got to anyone over 18, but given the AZ can't be used for under 30s it's not surprising there are constraints.

Sure I will get some stick for saying this but in the rich countries Pfizer, Moderna mainly and Johnson and Johnson have become the vaccines of choice. 

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41 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Sure I will get some stick for saying this but in the rich countries Pfizer, Moderna mainly and Johnson and Johnson have become the vaccines of choice. 

Think you are right - if you can afford them then Pfizer and Moderna are clearly the vaccines of choice, and for very good reasons - this is not to say that some of the other vaccines are not good because they clearly are but just not quite as good and with something this serious if you can afford the best then that is what the rich countries will go for.

The Oxford vaccine is remarkable both in terms of its low cost and deliverability in countries with less well developed health systems but I think for the richer countries its credibility has been significantly damaged by both Boris Johnson and AZ themselves which is a great shame, although hopefully it won't inhibit its deployment in the third world too much.

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