Corona Virus main thread

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Unless they translate to hospitalisation and deaths, cases are largely irrelevant. 

They will - that seems to be the conclusion of most experts - hopefully vaccinations will mean a smaller proportion of cases progress to hospitalisation and death than in previous waves but given the rapidly rising number of cases underway there seems little doubt that hospitalisations will start to rise to some degree after the appropriate time lag.

[Herman 9,757]

Surely the higher the infection rate the higher the risk of yet another variant, maybe even more nasty, appearing. We're clearly never going to eradicate it but the least we could have done is calm the spread.

[ricardo 7,385]

Just now, Herman said:

Surely the higher the infection rate the higher the risk of yet another variant, maybe even more nasty, appearing. We're clearly never going to eradicate it but the least we could have done is calm the spread.

Vaccinations have worked however the 10 20% who refuse it will always be more at risk. In a free society we cannot enforce 100% compliance.

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Unless they translate to hospitalisation and deaths, cases are largely irrelevant. 

You are kidding right?

Edited June 11, 2021 by keelansgrandad

[ricardo 7,385]

14 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

You are kidding right?

Not at all.

There have been 63 hospitalisations of vaccinated people in 32k cases of the Delta variant. Proof that vaccination has broken the link.

BBC just reported no cases at all in the over 60's group in Norfolk, Suffolk, and Essex in the past week.

Edited June 11, 2021 by ricardo

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Just now, ricardo said:

Not at all.

There have been 63 hospitalisations of vaccinated people in 32k cases of the Delta variant. Proof that vaccination has broken the link.

But we cannot just let the cases mount and say we are alright because no-one is going to hospital.

I'm afraid I would rather trust the BMA than your judgement about this.

https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/covid-19

[Van wink 2,994]

19 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

But we cannot just let the cases mount and say we are alright because no-one is going to hospital.

I'm afraid I would rather trust the BMA than your judgement about this.

https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/covid-19

Hospitalisations will increase KG, have no doubt about that. Despite the great vaccination figures there are still potentially millions who could end up in hospital, to get a reasonable level of protection you need two jabs. 

[ricardo 7,385]

38 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

But we cannot just let the cases mount and say we are alright because no-one is going to hospital.

I'm afraid I would rather trust the BMA than your judgement about this.

https://www.bma.org.uk/advice-and-support/covid-19

Thats a zero covid approach which we already know will never happen. The sooner we learn to live with it as we do with other viruses, the better it will be. The lockdown restrictions were to prevent the NHS being over run which didn't happen and is now even less likely to happen because of vaccinations.

The number of vaccinated increases by half a million a day so the virus has fewer choices in victimes as time goes on. Unfortunately there will always be an anti vax cohort but we shouldn't let them determine our freedoms.

Edited June 11, 2021 by ricardo

[ricardo 7,385]

[ricardo 7,385]

[Indy 3,298]

I just worked out using my limited risk assessment knowledge and tools I have, mainly in risk management offshore, applied to the Pfizer vaccine, going by the numbers given by the latest likelihood for those double vaccinated and it worked out to:

for every 100000 who come in direct contact with the virus, 1050 might get hospitalised, 105 deaths.

Remember that’s direct contact with this India variant. Those who haven’t had double vaccinations at higher risk, but most of them are under 45, healthy and have very little risk of hospitalisation.

Edited June 11, 2021 by Indy

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

I'm sorry, with this bunch in control I have no faith that the control you espouse will last.

The India variant did not have to take hold. That the Government used citizen rights as part of the excuse doesn't wash. They are seeking to quash some of our rights.

We have heard so much about trusting the science, but when the science cannot guarantee, then the need for another defender on the pitch is paramount.

We are all sick to death of the virus and want a return to near normality. But I do not see wearing masks for another couple of weeks after 21 June until the vaccination program gives virtually everyone at least one jab, is going to cause a problem.

[Yellow Fever 3,780]

2 hours ago, Indy said:

I just worked out using my limited risk assessment knowledge and tools I have, mainly in risk management offshore, applied to the Pfizer vaccine, going by the numbers given by the latest likelihood for those double vaccinated and it worked out to:

for every 100000 who come in direct contact with the virus, 1050 might get hospitalised, 105 deaths.

Remember that’s direct contact with this India variant. Those who haven’t had double vaccinations at higher risk, but most of them are under 45, healthy and have very little risk of hospitalisation.

Indy

It was never about deaths. Deaths don't overwhelm the NHS even if they do make the headlines. Same as in the forces its the wounded that cause the headaches.

However, just to run your numbers as you state and assuming the virus becomes rife then you will be exposed to it so then say 40M double vaccinated gives 400,000 hospitalised of which 40,000 die. That's just the double vaccinated.

Houston. We have a problem.

Edited June 11, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Indy 3,298]

35 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Indy

It was never about deaths. Deaths don't overwhelm the NHS even if they do make the headlines. Same as in the forces its the wounded that cause the headaches.

However, just to run your numbers as you state and assuming the virus becomes rife then you will be exposed to it so then say 40M double vaccinated gives 400,000 hospitalised of which 40,000 die. That's just the double vaccinated.

Houston. We have a problem.

No it doesn’t, my figures are based 100% exposure, that’s not going t happen, additionally not everyone is going to be hospitalised at the same time, only 23 millions are in the top 9 groups or vulnerable so your figures are vastly unrealistic, even without vaccines.

You really can’t base figures on the younger age groups as very few of them get serious effects, very few get hospitalised. To protect the NHS, it has to be the vulnerable not vaccinated who are priority now.

Last although transmissibility is up to 60% up to other variants, the vaccines still prevent and reduce transmissibility for the Indian variant, though not as much as against the previous variant, this means it will take years to spread through everyone in the uk! Even at 10,000 a day would only be 3.6 million in a year infected! That could rise but before it did there would be breaks like in Bolton to stop the rise!

Edited June 11, 2021 by Indy

[Yellow Fever 3,780]

6 minutes ago, Indy said:

No it doesn’t, my figures are based 100% exposure, that’s not going t happen, additionally not everyone is going to be hospitalised at the same time, only 23 millions are in the top 9 groups or vulnerable so your figures are vastly unrealistic, even without vaccines.

You really can’t base figures on the younger age groups as very few of them get serious effects, very few get hospitalised. To protect the NHS, it has to be the vulnerable not vaccinated who are priority now.

I quite agree it won't happen that way. The NHS and the country would collapse well before 400,000 casualties.

However it will spread fast, very fast through our youngsters and nobody will then be able to hide from it.

Sometimes people need to grasp the potential numbers amd consequences without some controls.

By the way if you heard Hancock today he was advised early days in the pandemic pre lockdown of potentially 800,000 deaths! His words.

[Indy 3,298]

9 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I quite agree it won't happen that way. The NHS and the country would collapse well before 400,000 casualties.

However it will spread fast, very fast through our youngsters and nobody will then be able to hide from it.

Sometimes people need to grasp the potential numbers amd consequences without some controls.

By the way if you heard Hancock today he was advised early days in the pandemic pre lockdown of potentially 800,000 deaths! His words.

That’s not the case, kids have been back at school without mass spread! What you want a full lockdown for another year? 
Just add we’re going into an additional 4 week as we are scenario, as per science lead. So we’ll have 6 weeks to react to each breakout and get on top of the spread.

Edited June 11, 2021 by Indy

[Yellow Fever 3,780]

14 minutes ago, Indy said:

That’s not the case, kids have been back at school without mass spread! What you want a full lockdown for another year? 
Just add we’re going into an additional 4 week as we are scenario, as per science lead. So we’ll have 6 weeks to react to each breakout and get on top of the spread.

Good. We agree a delay to get more (youngsters) vaccinated makes sense to get to or near quasi herd immunity make sense.

[Herman 9,757]

Aye, they're leaking that we are going for a four week delay. Colour me shocked.🤨

[Van wink 2,994]

7 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Good. We agree a delay to get more (youngsters) vaccinated makes sense to get to or near quasi herd immunity make sense.

Exactly the point and has been all the time, pushing on with the last open when it was pretty clear there was significant increased transmission and without full data on vaccine effectiveness was another mistake, but nobody cares to listen 😉

[Herman 9,757]

Welcome to our world VW. 😉

[Van wink 2,994]

31 minutes ago, Herman said:

Welcome to our world VW. 😉

Always try to keep an open mind as you know Herman 😀 

[Daz Sparks 1,152]

10 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

But I do not see wearing masks for another couple of weeks after 21 June until the vaccination program gives virtually everyone at least one jab, is going to cause a problem

This, but it wouldn't have been a problem if this bunch of incompetents had controlled the influx of cases from India when they had the chance.

I wouldn't trust this so called Government to run a bath, let alone our Country...

 fecking idiots.

[BroadstairsR 2,164]

I note that the Indian variant has now appeared in areas of Germany and in France. 

The same pattern could evolve re: the Kent variant, whereby both countries had surges after us, and whilst our rates were going down their's were rising.

I suppose there are reasons why this country has twice now been the first in Europe to succumb to the newer more dangerous variants beyond the fact that our genome sequencing is supposed to be the most advanced there is, but the fact remains that infection rates in both countries are currently now lower than ours for the first time in months.

I think we do more testing, certainly than the French, but should they (and their neighbours for that matter) start experiencing a further surge it will be bad news for us. Surges produce more variants.

At least the EU seems to have got it's act together with their vaccination programme.

Edited June 12, 2021 by BroadstairsR

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, BroadstairsR said:

I note that the Indian variant has now appeared in areas of Germany and in France. 

The same pattern could evolve re: the Kent variant, whereby both countries had surges after us, and whilst our rates were going down their's were rising.

I suppose there are reasons why this country has twice now been the first to succumb to the newer more dangerous variants beyond the fact that our genome sequencing is supposed to be the most advanced there is, but the fact remains that infection rates in both countries are currently now lower than ours for the first time in months.

I think we do more testing, certainly than the French, but should they (and their neighbours for that matter) start experiencing a further surge it will be bad news for us. Surges produce more variants.

At least the EU seems to have got it's act together with their vaccination programme.

Bound to be another surge in Europe imo, hopefully not before they have established a reasonable level of herd immunity, but sadly they may be overtaken by events as we appear to have been.

[BroadstairsR 2,164]

Bild .... Live Ticker:

Lower Saxony: so far 35 infections with Delta variant

The coronavirus variant Delta, which was discovered in India, has also been detected several times in Lower Saxony. So far, 35 infections with the Delta variant are known, said the State Health Office (NLGA) on Friday at a dpa request. There were isolated cases as early as the beginning of May, said a spokesman for the authorities. The variant has appeared a little more frequently since the end of May.

The city of Braunschweig reported on Friday that the delta variant had been detected there. "This mutation of the Covid-19 pathogen was identified in three sick people by laboratory tests," it said. The diseases are currently mild.

[Yellow Fever 3,780]

5 hours ago, Van wink said:

Exactly the point and has been all the time, pushing on with the last open when it was pretty clear there was significant increased transmission and without full data on vaccine effectiveness was another mistake, but nobody cares to listen 😉

Agreed - the elephant in the room is that our EXISTING restrictions are not holding the line against the Delta variant let alone opening up more.

[ricardo 7,385]

National

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Local

[ricardo 7,385]

Hospitalisations.

[ricardo 7,385]

Opinium Research has it 54-37 in favour of extending restrictions.

Stockholm syndrome.

[Van wink 2,994]

Sadly we are in for another big wave, 57% of the population is not yet fully vaccinated which will mean many hospitalisations. I fear that the “irreversible” roadmap may be reversed before too long.