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On 12/06/2021 at 06:54, Van wink said:

Exactly the point and has been all the time, pushing on with the last open when it was pretty clear there was significant increased transmission and without full data on vaccine effectiveness was another mistake, but nobody cares to listen 😉

Are you suggesting that delaying the final stage of the ‘roadmap’ shows you were right about the 17 May phase? 😂  

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2 hours ago, Aggy said:

Are you suggesting that delaying the final stage of the ‘roadmap’ shows you were right about the 17 May phase? 😂  

Of course I am, the fact that you don’t realise that shows how little you understand . We pushed ahead without knowing sufficient about this variant, as I said at the time we should have waited until we had the data. Sadly it’s too late now.

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2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Of course I am, the fact that you don’t realise that shows how little you understand . We pushed ahead without knowing sufficient about this variant, as I said at the time we should have waited until we had the data. Sadly it’s too late now.

😂 again. 

Before 17 May, you said if we proceed with unlocking on 17 May, we’d have shed loads of hospitalisations, deaths etc. You said don’t proceed with 17 May unlocking and wait three weeks for more data. 17 May is now four weeks ago. And we opened up. So if we opened up anyway, and have waited more than your proposed three weeks, the data should be really bad by now shouldn’t it?

Instead, deaths remain the same. Hospitalisations are barely going up. Even in the north west where infections went up the most and quickest, measures were put in place to stop it getting out of hand. Hospitals in the north west were nowhere even remotely close to being overwhelmed and have levelled off. The ceo of NHS providers basically said yesterday that vaccines have done, are doing, and will continue to do their job as more people get vaccinated. Vaccines continue to be rolled out so it’s only going to get better. 

Nobody is suggesting we ‘rewind’ and go back to how it was before 17 May (other than zero covid nuts, and you. I’m not sure if you’d class yourself as a zero covid nut, but I’m sure others will have a view on that).

The simple fact is that opening up on 17 May has been shown to be absolutely the right thing to do. The restrictions before then were massive on people’s normal daily freedoms. Since then, the restrictions have been at a level that barely affects people’s daily lives and your foreseen disaster just simply hasn’t materialised. In the same way it didn’t when you predicted disaster after schools opened up.

 And before you talk about hospital and death lags, 17 May was 4 weeks ago. And let’s not forget we had the Indian variant here before that date as well. Presumably you’re not still claiming the hospital and deaths from schools opening will happen “in another three weeks”?

You evidently don’t understand the roadmap if you think delaying the 21 June phase means you were in any way right about 17 May. The plan was always to go stage by stage. You unlock, review the data and then decide whether it’s time to go one step further. We’ve unlocked and decided it’s proportionate not to go one stage further just yet. We aren’t back tracking. There is no increase in restrictions. There is nothing to say we’re going to be anywhere near close to overwhelming of hospitals at the current level of restrictions. The 21 June restrictions are basically big events and larger group gatherings. It makes virtually no difference to people’s daily lives.

It does makes absolute proportionate sense to delay 21 June - all the evidence shows your view on 17 May didn’t and still doesn’t.

 

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Sadly the data’s IS really bad Aggy as I suspected it would be, we have 60 increased infection rate which in any epidemic is a massive figure, we now have the data and if it had been available before the 17th I suspect we wouldn’t have been so eager to open up at that stage. Sadly now it is all too late and we can look forward to a massive increase in community infection, hospitalisations and deaths. Poor decision making again I’m afraid. I would not be surprised I see the “irreversible” roadmap reversed before too long. Hope I’m wrong.

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11 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Sadly the data’s IS really bad Aggy as I suspected it would be, we have 60 increased infection rate which in any epidemic is a massive figure, we now have the data and if it had been available before the 17th I suspect we wouldn’t have been so eager to open up at that stage. Sadly now it is all too late and we can look forward to a massive increase in community infection, hospitalisations and deaths. Poor decision making again I’m afraid. I would not be surprised I see the “irreversible” roadmap reversed before too long. Hope I’m wrong.

Go on then. Give me the really bad data that is already out there which shows hospitals are likely to be overwhelmed unless we go back to pre-17 May times.

Infections - yep. But we aren’t locking down because people have the common cold, so you’ll need to show me more than infections. 

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26 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Go on then. Give me the really bad data that is already out there which shows hospitals are likely to be overwhelmed unless we go back to pre-17 May times.

Infections - yep. But we aren’t locking down because people have the common cold, so you’ll need to show me more than infections. 

The infection rate is the bad data Aggy, the infection rate has been growing exponentially since we unlocked in May, R is around 1.5 now and the virus is mainly circulating amongst the young. That profile will change and it will move through the generations. One vaccine gives limited protection and there is still some doubt about the effectiveness of 2 AZ doses, more data needed. 29% of the deaths from Delta so far have had two jabs. You seem unable to grasp the scale, we are nowhere near herd immunity through double vaccination, we have allowed the rate of infection to grow massively since the May unlock, the outcome is inevitable. 

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39 minutes ago, Van wink said:

The infection rate is the bad data Aggy, the infection rate has been growing exponentially since we unlocked in May, R is around 1.5 now and the virus is mainly circulating amongst the young. That profile will change and it will move through the generations. One vaccine gives limited protection and there is still some doubt about the effectiveness of 2 AZ doses, more data needed. 29% of the deaths from Delta so far have had two jabs. You seem unable to grasp the scale, we are nowhere near herd immunity through double vaccination, we have allowed the rate of infection to grow massively since the May unlock, the outcome is inevitable. 

So, to be clear, the ‘data’ which you claim proves you are definitely right about 17 May, is that “there is some uncertainty about effectiveness of 2 AZ doses”  and you might turn out to be right in the future if certain things happen.

I think the only thing which appears to be ungraspable is your realisation that your opinion isn’t scientific fact 😂

 

Edited by Aggy

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If you can’t understand what I’m saying Aggy I’m sorry, come back in a few weeks when things have got far worse and you may be a bit more receptive🙈 Sadly by the time the level of proof you seem to require is evidenced we will be seeing massive numbers of infections and hospitalisations again, you still don’t understand how this works which is not a criticism, it is difficult.

Edited by Van wink

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3 minutes ago, Van wink said:

If you can’t understand what I’m saying Aggy I’m sorry, come back in a few weeks when things have got far worse and you may be a bit more receptive🙈

I understand what you’re saying absolutely. No need to resort to arrogant patronising posts because you’ve been called out as being unable to substantiate your claims.

Had you merely said that, in your opinion, this is going the way you predicted and that you’ll be shown to be correct in a few weeks, I would have ignored your post (as frankly I don’t really care what your opinion is).

But you didn’t. You claimed you had data to prove you were right about 17 May. When asked for it, you not only failed to provide it, but twice insulted the intelligence of the person asking you for it. 

 

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3 minutes ago, Aggy said:

I understand what you’re saying absolutely. No need to resort to arrogant patronising posts because you’ve been called out as being unable to substantiate your claims.

Had you merely said that, in your opinion, this is going the way you predicted and that you’ll be shown to be correct in a few weeks, I would have ignored your post (as frankly I don’t really care what your opinion is).

But you didn’t. You claimed you had data to prove you were right about 17 May. When asked for it, you not only failed to provide it, but twice insulted the intelligence of the person asking you for it. 

 

No intention to insult Aggy, but I have pointed out several times that the transmission rate of the new variant has been shown to be very high, around 60% is the best data I have seen, that was an unknown before the May opening. Im not sure how else to convey the message.

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25 minutes ago, Van wink said:

No intention to insult Aggy, but I have pointed out several times that the transmission rate of the new variant has been shown to be very high, around 60% is the best data I have seen, that was an unknown before the May opening. Im not sure how else to convey the message.

You don’t need to convey the message any other way. The point is that infections don’t guarantee hospitals will be overwhelmed and currently (despite more than ample time for hospitalisation and death lags to start to catch up) there is no evidence they’re going to be overwhelmed as a result of the 17 May move. Your claim otherwise is based on what you predict might happen in the future, but not what has actually happened.

Edited by Aggy

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38 minutes ago, Aggy said:

You don’t need to convey the message any other way. The point is that infections don’t guarantee hospitals will be overwhelmed and currently (despite more than ample time for hospitalisation and death lags to start to catch up) there is no evidence they’re going to be overwhelmed as a result of the 17 May move. Your claim otherwise is based on what you predict might happen in the future, but not what has actually happened.

Sadly the vaccines are not 100% effective even after 2 doses Aggy, and many have only received one or none at all. With an exponential growth in infection numbers since the May opening, large numbers infected will be reflected in admissions. If you disagree explain why.

Edited by Van wink

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National

7490 - 8

Local

image.png.530833b7e920b8c6552862fa3a18ae96.png

There is currently just one person in the Covid ward at the N & N.

image.thumb.png.b4bc0778b9165406e9b076c3992e6ef5.png

image.thumb.png.28f284c2fadbd32253541fca5947473d.png

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3 hours ago, Van wink said:

The infection rate is the bad data Aggy, the infection rate has been growing exponentially since we unlocked in May, R is around 1.5 now and the virus is mainly circulating amongst the young. That profile will change and it will move through the generations. One vaccine gives limited protection and there is still some doubt about the effectiveness of 2 AZ doses, more data needed. 29% of the deaths from Delta so far have had two jabs. You seem unable to grasp the scale, we are nowhere near herd immunity through double vaccination, we have allowed the rate of infection to grow massively since the May unlock, the outcome is inevitable. 

Hang on there VW, that 29% is 12 out of 56 to the 9th June, people have died With Delta Covid Variant, most 82 years and over. These we’re old people frail and could have died from other circumstances, but as they have tested positive are included in the figures.

Some sense of perspective needs to be applied, people are going to die, especially those frail 80+ year olds even with two vaccines additionally until we start to actually breakout the true deaths to keep quoting died with within 28 days will always look dramatic.

Hospitalisation figures, per % of infected is the key driver, we are indeed in a race between vaccinations and evolution of Covid, but this isn’t going to stop, we need to accept that variants will keep coming and vaccines will be developed to be better at identifying and dealing with it. Accept that there’s going to be deaths each year due to Covid as flu and move on with life. We will get there and as long as figures don’t get to the point of overwhelming the NHS, we move forwards cautiously.

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1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Sadly the vaccines are not 100% effective even after 2 doses Aggy, and many have only received one or none at all. With an exponential growth in infection numbers since the May opening, large numbers infected will be reflected in admissions. If you disagree explain why.

VW, i was likely one of the first on here, weeks ago, just after the lowest Weekly infection rate of 14k just started to level out and show the smallest of rises, to say that i thought that June 14th needed to give us a delay to any more easing of the lockdown..at the time  that Ricardo was calling  the pessimists  "doom mongerers". Yes, now that weekly rate is 50k so it has risen significantly, but still pales  compared to Jan 8th when we had 68k in one day, not just  for a week. Also the data shows the high proportion of under 30s  getting infected which has mainly been giving this rise.

Deaths are still holding steady, hospital admissions have shown a small rise to 1k a week. Considering we are now a long way from a total lockdown, schools and shops been open for a decent length of time plus the Delta variant has been said to be more transmissable than previous variants i feel that vaccinations  have and are doing their job in stunting the rise and more importantly, the affects, of this latest variant. Yes im sure  new infections will rise further, arguably as will admissions and deaths, but those last two categories im not yet convinced will reach anywhere near the January highs.

On the whole i still think opening the shops etc was the right approach and at the right time and still see no reason to go backwards again by tightening restrictions again, but still feel the delay coming  is right and was ineviatable, indeed  i would be more comfortable if it eventually lasted a good while longer than 4 weeks...we just need   a good  bit more time yet to get as many people vaccinated as possible before easing  the lockdown further....as great and speedy as the program has been.

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FWIW, my opinion is pretty much the same as it has been for some time. The vaccination programme is working but I have always suggested a 2 week delay to the next step.............if it is made 4 weeks, fair enough, I have no problem with that. For the most part I am doing pretty much exactly what I want to do anyway so feel very unrestricted already.

I am disappointed that there has been no major step-up in the number of vaccinations given, there was talk a few weeks ago about getting up to around 800,000 a day, we are nowhere near that and, if anything, the numerical trend is going down.

As for the rest, I don't see the very slow rise in patients in hospital and deaths as anything to be overly concerned about at the moment.  

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I agree, it always struck me as strange to have a couple of relaxation stages then  get rid of absolutely all restrictions on 21 June. I think we have a high level of normal life back and it’s sensible to hold back from relaxing any more.

 

has anyone seen news about what the US and Europe are now doing? Last I read they all seemed to be opening up but that was a week or so ago.

 

It certainly would be great if they can increase the vax numbers but there’s only so much supply available.

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3 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

FWIW, my opinion is pretty much the same as it has been for some time. The vaccination programme is working but I have always suggested a 2 week delay to the next step.............if it is made 4 weeks, fair enough, I have no problem with that. For the most part I am doing pretty much exactly what I want to do anyway so feel very unrestricted already.

I am disappointed that there has been no major step-up in the number of vaccinations given, there was talk a few weeks ago about getting up to around 800,000 a day, we are nowhere near that and, if anything, the numerical trend is going down.

As for the rest, I don't see the very slow rise in patients in hospital and deaths as anything to be overly concerned about at the moment.  

Perhaps if they stopped closing centres down the numbers wouldn’t drop, Solebay Southwold was doing 400 a day then stopped getting deliveries and closed down.

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Just now, CANARYKING said:

Perhaps if they stopped closing centres down the numbers wouldn’t drop, Solebay Southwold was doing 400 a day then stopped getting deliveries and closed down.

My daughter is waiting for second jab, has bee offered two places, one 70 miles away the other 120 !

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13 hours ago, Mark .Y. said:

FWIW, my opinion is pretty much the same as it has been for some time. The vaccination programme is working but I have always suggested a 2 week delay to the next step.............if it is made 4 weeks, fair enough, I have no problem with that. For the most part I am doing pretty much exactly what I want to do anyway so feel very unrestricted already.

I am disappointed that there has been no major step-up in the number of vaccinations given, there was talk a few weeks ago about getting up to around 800,000 a day, we are nowhere near that and, if anything, the numerical trend is going down.

As for the rest, I don't see the very slow rise in patients in hospital and deaths as anything to be overly concerned about at the moment.  

Yeh, the only way out of this is to get as many people as possible double vaccinated, if that means delay in opening up to prevent another large wave then so be it. I fear we have already missed the boat on that one with large numbers of people still not protected and the early stages of the wave now embedded. 

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10 hours ago, CANARYKING said:

Perhaps if they stopped closing centres down the numbers wouldn’t drop, Solebay Southwold was doing 400 a day then stopped getting deliveries and closed down.

Who are "they" ?

Individual centres do open and close dependent on what the local health authorities think is the best use of their resources.

Many areas are now short of volunteers to help administer the vaccination centres, maybe they just didn't have enough people to run it. I am obviously only speculating but I guess it is a possibility ???

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20 minutes ago, Mark .Y. said:

Who are "they" ?

Individual centres do open and close dependent on what the local health authorities think is the best use of their resources.

Many areas are now short of volunteers to help administer the vaccination centres, maybe they just didn't have enough people to run it. I am obviously only speculating but I guess it is a possibility ???

They had the volunteers but no vaccine

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40 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

They had the volunteers but no vaccine

6 million AZ doses sitting in warehouses because of the decision not to use them on certain groups. A complete failure of risk / reward thinking , IMO. 

The anticipated acceleration to 800k doses per day has not happened which signifies to me that there is a restricted supply of Pfizer and Moderna. The past month has been very much on a plateau of around 500k per day.

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Many areas are now short of volunteers to help administer the vaccination centres, maybe they just didn't have enough people to run it.
Definitely not, so many volunteers you are restricted to 4 - 6 hour slots on a day only. So many it’s virtually impossible to get shifts.

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Finally a sensible decision after as usual Johnson has tried all the idiotic ones first.

Let all hope the good weather holds, people are sensible and the Delta variant can be brought under control with the existing restrictions in place although I'm fearful as per VW that that ship has already sailed.

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I totally blame Johnson for this. For his own ends, he did not put India on the red list, and up until 2 weeks ago, red list travellers were crushed in the arrivals hall at Heathrow along other passengers. We are 15 months into this pandemic and he is still behaving like an idiot. For all his nationalistic flag waving, shouting about how we are ahead of Europe, and all of this could not have happened without Brexit, just look at what’s happening in Germany. It didn’t even need to go to penalties, and yet people still defend him. It feels as if I am in a parallel universe. 

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1 hour ago, Yellow Fever said:

Finally a sensible decision after as usual Johnson has tried all the idiotic ones first.

Let all hope the good weather holds, people are sensible and the Delta variant can be brought under control with the existing restrictions in place although I'm fearful as per VW that that ship has already sailed.

 

 

 

Copied 3 tweets from this bloke who I follow for updates on Covid in case folk wish to do the same.

In summary, he is very cautious on the Delta variant, supports sensible precautions once we 'open up' (citing wide public support) and he has a very sensible plan for going ahead.

His other posts also indicate an inquiring mind on other topics (G7, tax and international cooperation etc).

 

 

 

 

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5 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Finally a sensible decision after as usual Johnson has tried all the idiotic ones first.

Let all hope the good weather holds, people are sensible and the Delta variant can be brought under control with the existing restrictions in place although I'm fearful as per VW that that ship has already sailed.

Needless panic

 

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More concerning data, this has been hinted at for a while now, add this to the increased transmission rate and we have a pretty nasty wee beasty.

"An analysis of almost 20,000 coronavirus infections across Scotland has shown the Delta variant of the virus almost doubles the risk of people being admitted to hospital.

The new study also confirmed two doses of vaccine still offers the best protection against the variant, which was first identified in India."

 

 

Edited by Van wink
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