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50 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Did he mention anything about sausages?

... just a safety message

Screenshot 2021-06-09 18.03.36.png

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34 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Hospitalisation reality not in line with SAGE models.

 

Image

 

Scenario 5 - "Effect of Vaccinations" - Doesn't look too bad a fit from mid-February!

However - this is simply a distraction - it's what happens next from here that matters!

SCREEEECCHHH.

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Everything points to at least a two week delay which means the Indian variant will have another two week to spread. So it’s a race between the jab and the variant with the anti vaxers on the side lines. If the variant wins the race will it be another, the another two weeks ?

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Very current report here:

'Ministers considering four-week lockdown delay'.

The data must be concerning ... very high transmissibility (doubling every 4.5 days), a more severe virus experience and 7% increases in hospitalisation.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/covid-uk-vaccine-lockdown-news-coronavirus-b1863937.html

This isn't the kind of Indian Summer we wanted is it 😐

 

Edited by sonyc

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5 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Very current report here:

'Ministers considering four-week lockdown delay'.

The data must be concerning ... very high transmissibility and 7% increases in hospitalisation.

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/covid-uk-vaccine-lockdown-news-coronavirus-b1863937.html

This isn't the kind of Indian Summer we wanted is it 😐

 

It isn't but I think it is fairly inevitable now - once again, a completely inexplicable delay in taking action by Johnson (not closing the border to people coming in from India when he should have done) is going to cost us very dearly.

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12 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

It isn't but I think it is fairly inevitable now - once again, a completely inexplicable delay in taking action by Johnson (not closing the border to people coming in from India when he should have done) is going to cost us very dearly.

I don’t think very dearly is necessarily the correct phrase, but certainly was a stupid thing to actually communicate and allow four days of free travel allowing hundreds if not thousands who had been involved in the free run religious festivals to then come spread the Indian variant here.

But it’s not like we can’t delay the lockdown easing, run as we are, and isolate, lockdown and vaccinate outbreaks as we have in Bolton very successfully. It should be noted no real significant death increase nor much of an increase in hospitalisation either, the two key figures. 

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11 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

It isn't but I think it is fairly inevitable now - once again, a completely inexplicable delay in taking action by Johnson (not closing the border to people coming in from India when he should have done) is going to cost us very dearly.

Sadly yes - and very predictable (modellable).

60% more transmissive - ONS -  (a few weeks ago 50% plus was given as the inflection point of another severe 3rd wave).

Johnson has tried yet again to vacillate over the last couple of weeks - led people on with the idea of 'Freedom Day'. He needs to row back for say 4 weeks but will people 'buy it' until its too late? Probably not so another self inflicted wave with its more severe  economic consequences will crash down upon us. . 

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52 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

It isn't but I think it is fairly inevitable now - once again, a completely inexplicable delay in taking action by Johnson (not closing the border to people coming in from India when he should have done) is going to cost us very dearly.

When I posted this CW I hadn't especially wanted to make a political point. You'll know my views already without a repeat. Yet, for me it remains one of those absolute ironies that this government who championed the protection of our borders during the Brexit campaign so strongly now has been so utterly pathetic at attempting to keep a pandemic out ...by allowing our borders to be so porous...almost free access! It is just incredible and so incompetent.

It isn't like we didn't know about the Indian Variant is it? I am unsure of the numbers coming in but my wife read (I believe) that it has been hundreds of thousands.

Edited by sonyc
Improved grammar
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13 minutes ago, sonyc said:

When I posted this CW I hadn't especially wanted to make a political point. You'll know my views already without a repeat. Yet, for me it remains one of those absolute ironies that such a government that we have who championed the protection of our borders during the Brexit talks and campaign now has been so utterly pathetic at keeping a pandemic out of our borders by allowing such free access! It is just incredible and so incompetent. It isn't like we didn't know about the Indian Variant is it? I am unsure of the numbers coming in but my wife read (I believe) it has been hundreds of thousands.

Not to dwell on this Sonyc but as I watched the report yesterday, we’ve lost the hard working EU workers who were here for seasonal work and though EU migration is down at around 30% of what it was, it’s now been filled with 70% from outside the EU, a large section from India and Philippines who are here helping with critical care, but a huge section from the Middle East who are trying to claim asylum. The real migration numbers haven’t reduced and only around 1% being returned from the UK.

The sooner this government gets kicked out the better……

Edited by Indy
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What an absolute shower this mob is. I didn't expect Hancock to own up completely but to make out he handled it well is extraordinary.

Meanwhile Tweedledum beggars off down here and makes out everything is rosy.

I'm not fooled but there is a heck of a lot of silence at the moment from those who voted the scoundrel in. His inactivity has caused the recent and continuing rises.

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4 minutes ago, Indy said:

Not to dwell on this Sonyc but as I watched the report yesterday, we’ve lost the hard working EU workers who were here for seasonal work and though EU migration is down at around 30% of what it was, it’s now been filled with 70% from outside the EU, a large section from India and Philippines who are here helping with critical care, but a huge section from the Middle East who are trying to claim asylum. The real migration numbers haven’t reduced and only around 1% being returned from the UK.

Indy...the management of all of this has been so disappointing. Brexit coinciding with a pandemic has been a terrible combination. There was fear for the NHS before the pandemic after the decade of under funding. The response by the NHS has been successful and resilient ...almost against the odds. But at what longer term cost? 

Ps. I'm really not one for making exaggerated assertions but I reckon in a few years time I will look back on 2020 as a terrible low point in our political history. Difficult to see the wood for the trees when you're standing in the middle of it. This government has been one great big mess.

Edited by sonyc
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31 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Sadly yes - and very predictable (modellable).

60% more transmissive - ONS -  (a few weeks ago 50% plus was given as the inflection point of another severe 3rd wave).

Johnson has tried yet again to vacillate over the last couple of weeks - led people on with the idea of 'Freedom Day'. He needs to row back for say 4 weeks but will people 'buy it' until its too late? Probably not so another self inflicted wave with its more severe  economic consequences will crash down upon us. . 

It always looked pretty likely that the transmission rate was over 50%, with the rate this variant spread through India it was a fairly good bet (obvious ). The opening up a few weeks ago has allowed it to gain a foothold and now we are spiralling out of control, delay back then would have at least allowed the vaccined population to increase which is the only solution we have. 

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1 minute ago, Van wink said:

It always looked pretty likely that the transmission rate was over 50%, with the rate this variant spread through India it was a fairly good bet (obvious ). The opening up a few weeks ago has allowed it to gain a foothold and now we are spiralling out of control, delay back then would have at least allowed the vaccined population to increase which is the only solution we have. 

On the same page VW. Vaccines are the answer but the 'do nothing ostrich' approach of Johnson as the cliff edge approaches is bewildering. Too late now I suspect.

How many bodies does he think will pile up ? It has been modelled! Are the 'casualty figures' acceptable to him ?

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1 hour ago, Indy said:

I don’t think very dearly is necessarily the correct phrase, but certainly was a stupid thing to actually communicate and allow four days of free travel allowing hundreds if not thousands who had been involved in the free run religious festivals to then come spread the Indian variant here.

But it’s not like we can’t delay the lockdown easing, run as we are, and isolate, lockdown and vaccinate outbreaks as we have in Bolton very successfully. It should be noted no real significant death increase nor much of an increase in hospitalisation either, the two key figures. 

Maybe very dearly isn't the best phrase but I was trying to convey that we are going incur a very sustantial cost both in terms of public health (whether it be simply people suffering an extremely nasty virus but covering well, or recovering slowly and partially through long Covid and some who won't recover at all). We are also likely to suffer a severe and further economic hit as a result of the extension which is very unwelcome, to put it mildly, but it will still be  a smaller than letting another wave of virus take off unchecked.

I think it was more stupid than you suggest - i'm pretty certain that the delay was 10 days rather than 4 and it has certainly been documented that 40,000 people entered the UK on direct flights from India during that period and presumably there were others coming via slightly less direct routes. So 40,000+ people from India at a time when the virus was absolutely rampant over there.

As @sonyc pointed out, for a government that has 'taking back control of our borders' as a major policy objective they have made an absolutely appalling job of 'controlling them' - 'asleep at the wheel' is probably being generous.

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1 minute ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Maybe very dearly isn't the best phrase but I was trying to convey that we are going incur a very sustantial cost both in terms of public health (whether it be simply people suffering an extremely nasty virus but covering well, or recovering slowly and partially through long Covid and some who won't recover at all). We are also likely to suffer a severe and further economic hit as a result of the extension which is very unwelcome, to put it mildly, but it will still be  a smaller than letting another wave of virus take off unchecked.

I think it was more stupid than you suggest - i'm pretty certain that the delay was 10 days rather than 4 and it has certainly been documented that 40,000 people entered the UK on direct flights from India during that period and presumably there were others coming via slightly less direct routes. So 40,000+ people from India at a time when the virus was absolutely rampant over there.

As @sonyc pointed out, for a government that has 'taking back control of our borders' as a major policy objective they have made an absolutely appalling job of 'controlling them' - 'asleep at the wheel' is probably being generous.

There’s certainly a validity to all those comments, but one must point out, double vaccinated are only about 15% at risk of catching it, only 20% of that 15% would possibly need treatment and that’s not a known number yet as double vaccinated still have higher resistance than before in the previous waves. This wave is targeting mainly the younger ages who are massively resistant to hospitalisation. This wave cannot be looked at as the other two.

Like I I’ve been saying let the science drive us, Bolton have shown how we can cope by focusing on high impact areas. Vaccines are the key and we will no gout see a four week delay to the next stage.

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9 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Oh crap.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/jun/11/us-health-agency-gives-innova-lateral-flow-covid-tests-scathing-review

Seem like we cant rust the lateral flow tests - all those large testing figures may be significantly errored.

Don't think this is really news is it, other than the US is confirming what has already been established in the UK - we are pressing on regardless (because it makes the numbers look good??) but I'm sure there have been several reports over here that the accuracy was generally poor, and actually extremely poor unless the tests when administered by properly trained testers.

I know we shouldn't really joke about such serious matters but was reading an article a few weeks ago about sniffer dogs who  normally worked with Drugs squad being re-trained to test for Covid. They were not just faster than lateral flow tests they were a great deal more accurate - not far off the PCR tests in fact. It was being seriously suggested that they would be ideal for use at airports but haven't heard any more so presumably hasn't been taken any further,

 

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On 09/06/2021 at 17:14, ricardo said:

Did he mention anything about sausages?

Pr!ck with fork.

Boris Johnson acting as mayor of London opens the London Food festival 2009  Stock Photo - Alamy

 

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3 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Four weeks ago it was under 2000.

Exponential rise now, expect the figures for daily infections to rocket.

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3 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Four weeks ago it was under 2000.

Unless they translate to hospitalisation and deaths, cases are largely irrelevant. 

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Thx for today's stats Ricardo. Once again the weely and daily rates for new infections rises , its very a steady increase day on day now but deaths and hospital admissions continue to hold up well very level to at most  very small rises. Considering how long schools and shops have been reopened now and at same time as this very catching Delta variant i have to say Vaccination is doing its job very well indeed.

Would really like to see any latest stats as to what age groups  are catching the new infections and  some %s of vaccinated who have caught the infection.

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