Corona Virus main thread

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

15 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Trouble is YF, it has always been about right or wrong. It was the wrong that got us into a mess we didn't deserve. Then we had the right with the vaccine.

So somebody has to be right this time. I suspect the majority believe we will be OK. Probably right but it isn't the given that some extol.

I think I worded that wrongly.

It seemed to me we had some people taking 'extreme' views of centrist arguments - 'Zero Covidians' (I don't know of any) or 'open up and don't care about the consequences'.

I think we are only discussing if we we should as seems ever more likely hold off a fuller opening up until we know we have it under control and the likely 'casualty' rate  - that's neither let it rip or zero Covid. 

[Indy 3,301]

5 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

I think I worded that wrongly.

It seemed to me we had some people taking 'extreme' views of centrist arguments - 'Zero Covidians' (I don't know of any) or 'open up and don't care about the consequences'.

I think we are only discussing if we we should as seems ever more likely hold off a fuller opening up until we know we have it under control and the likely 'casualty' rate  - that's neither let it rip or zero Covid. 

Let it rip is a bit dramatic considering well over 90 % of the most vulnerable group have had both vaccine shots now! Those who are at extreme low risk are being vaccinated now and you should also consider that young groups are estimated to have 30% had Covid and have a certain natural immunity.

Had the vaccines not been so effective or if we were way down on the vaccine rates then you could be so dramatic but where we are now is not last year.

Edited June 3, 2021 by Indy

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

12 minutes ago, Indy said:

Let it rip is a bit dramatic considering well over 90 % of the most vulnerable group have had both vaccine shots now! Those who are at extreme low risk are being vaccinated now and you should also consider that young groups are estimated to have 30% had Covid and have a certain natural immunity.

Had the vaccines not been so effective or if we were way down on the vaccine rates then you could be so dramatic but where we are now is not last year.

Of course where we are now is not last year - but last year we had strict strong lockdowns and a variant that was much less transmissive. Clearly most of us were never exposed or caught 'Covid'. We managed to avoid it.

Today what is being proposed by some is no restrictions in 2/3 weeks and hence the virus being allowed to spread largely unchecked in the 10M or so younger or single vaccine dose cohorts - and these very people mixing with the so called vulnerable double dosers - of which 3% are expected to have symptomatic Covid.  3% of say 20million is a very very large number still needing treatment.

There will be no avoiding it for anybody. I hope most just have mild symptoms but sadly for some or indeed many it could be much worse.

Anyway in 2 weeks we will know a lot more.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

45 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Of course where we are now is not last year - but last year we had strict strong lockdowns and a variant that was much less transmissive. Clearly most of us were never exposed or caught 'Covid'. We managed to avoid it.

Today what is being proposed by some is no restrictions in 2/3 weeks and hence the virus being allowed to spread largely unchecked in the 10M or so younger or single vaccine dose cohorts - and these very people mixing with the so called vulnerable double dosers - of which 3% are expected to have symptomatic Covid.  3% of say 20million is a very very large number still needing treatment.

There will be no avoiding it for anybody. I hope most just have mild symptoms but sadly for some or indeed many it could be much worse.

Anyway in 2 weeks we will know a lot more.

Yes, basically that is right. It is going to be allowed to spread. So for them to use the word caution makes no sense. Just come out with it Boris. You are under greater pressure from the business community than the scientific one.

[sonyc 5,527]

51 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Of course where we are now is not last year - but last year we had strict strong lockdowns and a variant that was much less transmissive. Clearly most of us were never exposed or caught 'Covid'. We managed to avoid it.

Today what is being proposed by some is no restrictions in 2/3 weeks and hence the virus being allowed to spread largely unchecked in the 10M or so younger or single vaccine dose cohorts - and these very people mixing with the so called vulnerable double dosers - of which 3% are expected to have symptomatic Covid.  3% of say 20million is a very very large number still needing treatment.

There will be no avoiding it for anybody. I hope most just have mild symptoms but sadly for some or indeed many it could be much worse.

Anyway in 2 weeks we will know a lot more.

I feel we are at a pivot point in this, it might go either way. The following report indicates a worrying aspect for sure:

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/coronavirus-news-live-covid-wave-b1858698.html

And Hancock too is clearly not entirely sure whether we will be delaying the 21st June:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/global-health/science-and-disease/coronavirus-news-covid-vaccine-uk-lockdown-latest-cases-deaths/

So...one of two ways. I remain though on the side of caution, taking my line from the scientists rather than (this set of) politicians. The latter, let's not forget it, got it so wrong in November / December after a previous reminder of what might happen last Spring and I cannot be certain they won't make further mis-steps. That businesses are opening and hospitality especially, it is extremely important too. I wonder whether some kind of 'hybrid' measures might be brought in from 21st. The messaging needs to be clear.

 

Edited June 3, 2021 by sonyc

[Indy 3,301]

2 hours ago, Yellow Fever said:

Of course where we are now is not last year - but last year we had strict strong lockdowns and a variant that was much less transmissive. Clearly most of us were never exposed or caught 'Covid'. We managed to avoid it.

Today what is being proposed by some is no restrictions in 2/3 weeks and hence the virus being allowed to spread largely unchecked in the 10M or so younger or single vaccine dose cohorts - and these very people mixing with the so called vulnerable double dosers - of which 3% are expected to have symptomatic Covid.  3% of say 20million is a very very large number still needing treatment.

There will be no avoiding it for anybody. I hope most just have mild symptoms but sadly for some or indeed many it could be much worse.

Anyway in 2 weeks we will know a lot more.

But that’s not true, as the variant is more transmissible it will spread but to assume it would reach everyone is incorrect. Even if you just let it run riot last year without vaccinations, only about 70-80% would actually catch it, as herd immunity takes hold there’s less people to spread to, that’s why even in Bolton and other areas yes there’s an increase but it’s not leaping up in huge numbers as the hosts are largely not available! Then you’re assuming that all those in the 3% who might catch it even with double vaccinations would be hospitalised, that might not be the case either. Only 1 in 5 of those in the 55 and over who caught it were severely effected. So that 3% will be subject to 1 in 5 roughly.

So your figures don’t take everything into account, they are just the worst case which cannot happen in real modelling.

Edited June 3, 2021 by Indy

[Van wink 2,994]

We are placing huge reliance on the vaccine, and rightly so in the current circumstances, but for it to do the work we need around 75% double vaxed, wait till then and from a public health perspective we will be doing the right thing

[Indy 3,301]

32 minutes ago, Van wink said:

We are placing huge reliance on the vaccine, and rightly so in the current circumstances, but for it to do the work we need around 75% double vaxed, wait till then and from a public health perspective we will be doing the right thing

Why?  Just look at the graph, BMJ data, it clearly shows that those under 45 dont get hospitalised! 
I’m all for being cautious but it must be for a good reason! If the Indian variant is ramping up then of course we need to be careful, but in to keep scaremongering about hospital deaths is really the wrong argument in my opinion, the data shows we can move ahead.

If in two weeks it shows different then we can delay the next stage, we are still over two weeks away!

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

43 minutes ago, Van wink said:

We are placing huge reliance on the vaccine, and rightly so in the current circumstances, but for it to do the work we need around 75% double vaxed, wait till then and from a public health perspective we will be doing the right thing

I liken it to deliberately crashing your car head on at 70mph into a wall for fun and relying on the seat belts, crumple zones and air bags to save your life.

As the saying goes - it's their funeral.

Edited June 3, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Indy 3,301]

I’m all for being ultra cautious if the science says so, but it doesn’t…..when will it be safe in your option to open up?

Edited June 3, 2021 by Indy

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

6 minutes ago, Indy said:

Why?  Just look at the graph, BMJ data, it clearly shows that those under 45 dont get hospitalised! 
I’m all for being cautious but it must be for a good reason! If the Indian variant is ramping up then of course we need to be careful, but in to keep scaremongering about hospital deaths is really the wrong argument in my opinion, the data shows we can move ahead.

If in two weeks it shows different then we can delay the next stage, we are still over two weeks away!

 

Just as a matter of irrefutable fact.

It shows no such thing.

This old chart clearly shows under 45s being hospitalized including died, discharged and ongoing care!

[Indy 3,301]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

Just as a matter of irrefutable fact.

It shows no such thing.

This old chart clearly shows under 45s being hospitalized including died, discharged and ongoing care!

Yes but it’s a trend during no Vaccines, that’s my point! It’s a fact of the numbers! You show me over the past six weeks since the Indian variant has reared its ugly head, people have been meeting in large number outdoors, indoors six plus have been mixing! If you can show me the huge increases in hospitalisation and deaths, or the massive increase in those vaccinated catching the virus I’ll change my mind and become as desperate as you to stop the world! 
 

The reality is your making massive assumptions without any real foundations! Show me the figures to be worried about?

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

1 minute ago, Indy said:

Yes but it’s a trend during no Vaccines, that’s my point! It’s a fact of the numbers! You show me over the past six weeks since the Indian variant has reared its ugly head, people have been meeting in large number outdoors, indoors six plus have been mixing! If you can show me the huge increases in hospitalisation and deaths, or the massive increase in those vaccinated catching the virus I’ll change my mind and become as desperate as you to stop the world! 
 

The reality is your making massive assumptions without any real foundations! Show me the figures to be worried about?

I'm just waiting for the evidence we have it under control to come in.

You it appears are not willing to wait.

Hospitalizations and deaths lag significantly behind confirmed cases.

[Indy 3,301]

1 minute ago, Yellow Fever said:

I'm just waiting for the evidence we have it under control to come in.

You it appears are not willing to wait.

Hospitalizations and deaths lag significantly behind confirmed cases.

Not at all I’ve said all along if the evidence shows otherwise it should be a fluid opening. But to call for a halt and lockdown again is just daft! Hospitalisation isn’t increasing, locally focused vaccinations to target surge areas is going on, mass testing and the numbers stable at around 4,000 a day testing positive, that’s not rising in any serious manner, gone up a 1000 in over a week!

I’m lost to what figures you’re waiting for? As I’ve said we still have just under three weeks before we go into the next phase…….

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

Why?  Just look at the graph, BMJ data, it clearly shows that those under 45 dont get hospitalised! 
I’m all for being cautious but it must be for a good reason! If the Indian variant is ramping up then of course we need to be careful, but in to keep scaremongering about hospital deaths is really the wrong argument in my opinion, the data shows we can move ahead.

If in two weeks it shows different then we can delay the next stage, we are still over two weeks away!

I'm not scaremongering, if thats what you are suggesting then I refute it. Its the precautionary principle which is even more poignant now that we have done so brilliantly with the vaccination program. Lets make sure we give ourselves the best chance of avoiding further lockdowns, we should not be driven by arbitrary dates, what we know now is that to give good immunity against the latest variant we need two jabs, get that done and we can feel far more confident and have the very best chance of staying on top the infections.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

24 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I'm not scaremongering, if thats what you are suggesting then I refute it. Its the precautionary principle which is even more poignant now that we have done so brilliantly with the vaccination program. Lets make sure we give ourselves the best chance of avoiding further lockdowns, we should not be driven by arbitrary dates, what we know now is that to give good immunity against the latest variant we need two jabs, get that done and we can feel far more confident and have the very best chance of staying on top the infections.

The honest truth is that the 21st June date was set somewhat arbitrarily (5 weeks after the previous relaxation to see what effect)  and before the strong appearance of the Indian variant on the assumption that cases would be diminishing.

That assumption is no longer is true. 

Edited June 3, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Essjayess 307]

22 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

Actually a week ago on 26th May daily new case numbers were 3,777 whereas today they are 4,330. To day they are going up by a thousand a day is nonsense, please look at the data.

 

https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases
 

But the fact is we are seeing a level of increase and personally I think that (given we’ve largely relaxed restrictions now) it would make sense to delay a bit longer before the final shackles are cast off.

If you had read my posts  of the last week or two i have constantly been referring to the day by day stat of the weekly  new infections, not daily. The rise in the 7 day rolling rate has increased by a thousand each day  since it hit a low of  14k for a 7 day period. As of Wednesday had that risen to 25k for the 7 day rolling rate...meaning its increased by 11k in about as many days.

[Mark .Y. 352]

I'm sticking to my "delay it for two extra weeks" theory, I think that will see us fine.

I think it will demonstrate a nod to the many scientists who want a delay but will also show that there is some recognition that the vaccine is working well and we need to fully open up.

[Essjayess 307]

So..today shows the daily  new infection rate going above 5,000...and the 7 day rolling rate has jumped  by more than 1,500 since yesterday...now  a smidgeon under 27k and deaths  in last 24 hrs at 18. The 7 day rolling rate for new infections has almost doubled in under a fortnight.  Im neither a zero Covidian (whatever that truly means) nor a doom mongerer, i truly think our vaccination program has  done wonderfully well in stunting the  spread of  the virus and its variants this past few months, plus i repeat...even now a weekly rate of 27k new infections is  very low compared to Jan 8th when we had a record daily of 68k.

But the new infection rate is speeding up day by day and has been for nearly 2 weeks now...its not some 1 day blip and i am truly wanting  a cautious approach in the next few weeks also because of the lag of admissions / deaths that we saw in the 2 previous waves.

[ricardo 7,395]

Just home from a nice day out.

National 5274 - 18

Panic stations on Pinkun Forum

Local

5 - 1

Vax

172k

349k

Sorry can't post from Gov site.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Just home from a nice day out.

National 5274 - 18

Panic stations on Pinkun Forum

Local

5 - 1

Vax

172k

349k

Sorry can't post from Gov site.

Have a good time down in Dorset Ricardo, coast walk and ended up at a place called Beer, whats not to love 😀

[Herman 9,780]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Just home from a nice day out.

National 5274 - 18

Panic stations on Pinkun Forum

Local

5 - 1

Vax

172k

349k

Sorry can't post from Gov site.

I think many are too busy ironing their "I told you so" T-shirts to panic.😉

[Creative Midfielder 1,998]

1 minute ago, Herman said:

I think many are too busy ironing their "I told you so" T-shirts to panic.😉

😀 Yep, no real surprise as its been obvious for more than a week that the Indian variant was spreading very rapidly, admittedly from a very low base but we all know how that goes, or at least we should do, given that we've seen it happen two (and arguably more) times before.

[ricardo 7,395]

16 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Have a good time down in Dorset Ricardo, coast walk and ended up at a place called Beer, whats not to love 😀

Lovely part of the world VW. We often had spring holiday weeks in the Bridport, Lyme Regis area before I retired but havent been back for four or five years. 

 

[Indy 3,301]

3 minutes ago, Herman said:

I think many are too busy ironing their "I told you so" T-shirts to panic.😉

I think Ricardo missed to add the hospital admission at -2 today! Not to be complacent but how long have we been watching the Indian variant now? I saw on the news they said the vast majority testing positive today was under 30. This makes sense as these are the age groups who have started to mix in larger numbers, schools, pubs, bbq’s.

Certainly as I’ve said all along needs to be kept on top off, but the figures in all ranges need to be looked at, along with the impact! We are still 18 days away from opening up and if these figures go up, then I’m sure the government science advisers will delay the next phase! If not then we’ll see the opening of more restrictions.

We shall see.

[ricardo 7,395]

1 minute ago, Indy said:

I think Ricardo missed to add the hospital admission at -2 today! Not to be complacent but how long have we been watching the Indian variant now? I saw on the news they said the vast majority testing positive today was under 30. This makes sense as these are the age groups who have started to mix in larger numbers, schools, pubs, bbq’s.

Certainly as I’ve said all along needs to be kept on top off, but the figures in all ranges need to be looked at, along with the impact! We are still 18 days away from opening up and if these figures go up, then I’m sure the government science advisers will delay the next phase! If not then we’ll see the opening of more restrictions.

We shall see.

Get out and enjoy the weather while the doom mongers are cowering under the stairs.😉👍🍻

[Indy 3,301]

4 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Get out and enjoy the weather while the doom mongers are cowering under the stairs.😉👍🍻

I have been, had a fantastic walk down the beach while my hound swam to cool himself down, then had a pint outside. It’s been warm today here, sounds like you’re making the most of things too young Ricardo, after the year we’ve had it lovely to see people enjoying themselves but still being careful.

[ricardo 7,395]

24 minutes ago, Indy said:

I have been, had a fantastic walk down the beach while my hound swam to cool himself down, then had a pint outside. It’s been warm today here, sounds like you’re making the most of things too young Ricardo, after the year we’ve had it lovely to see people enjoying themselves but still being careful.

I don't  think anybody is going crazy and most are acting sensibly.. Its a matter of balancing risks. 

[Upo 91]

 

It is likely as bad as "Beta" (b1351/South African) variant in ability to escape immunity and by far the worst in its transmissibility.

How deadly is it?

In Finland in a transmission chain in a hospital, 57 patients and 42 staff was infected by Delta. 17 patients died. Out of those 17, 11 were vaccinated once, 1 twice and 5 dead weren't vaccinated at all. Average age of deceased was 80, but ages ranged from 60 to 100. 75% were killed by the virus directly while 25% had some other serious illness - which is why they weren't registered as covid deaths. Of course, that doesn't mean they weren't killed by the virus too.

Out of infected 42 staff members, 17 were vacciniated twice, 2 were vaccinate once of whom 1 had had covid before. 23 were unvacinated, but didn't work directly with patients. The symptoms were mild flu like symptoms; cough, fever, tiredness.

The transmission chain started when a patient had a contact with someone who had visited outside Europe.

Source: https://yle.fi/uutiset/3-11963971

 

-> It is obvious that the hospital f***** up majorly and haven't used FFP2 masks. That's the only reason I can think of that would explain massive spread beyond Delta transmissibility being astronomical. My guess is that they've used regular surgical masks, but maybe not outside direct patient contacts (staff has probably had maskless interaction with eachother).

 

[Upo 91]

From 3 June 2021 Variants of concern technical briefing update. Starting from p. 46:

(Alpha = B117 "Kent"     Delta = B1617.2 "Indian")

England:

"Based on a record linkage of sequence-confirmed Delta and Alpha cases in England tested between 29 March 2021 and 20 May 2021, an analysis of 38,805 sequenced cases was performed to assess the risk of hospitalisation and emergency care attendance. Using stratified Cox proportional hazard regression, there was a significantly increased risk of hospitalisation within 14 days of specimen date (HR 2.61, 95% CI 1.56-4.36, p<0.001), and emergency care attendance or hospitalisation within 14 days (HR 1.67, 1.25-2.23, p<0.001), for Delta cases compared to Alpha cases after adjustment for confounders (age, sex, ethnicity, area of residence, index of multiple deprivation, week of diagnosis and vaccination status)."

Scotland:

"... There was an increased hazard ratio of hospitalisation for those who were S-gene positive compared with those with S gene target failure (2.39, 95% 1.72 to 3.31)"

Here's the ugly reality:

We now need to protect the vaccines from infections and not the other way around. 

The virus is simply becoming worse. More infectious. More immunity resistant. More deadly. We are training it. That even mRNA vaccine like Pfizer struggles to help our immune system beat the infection with 1 shot is alarming. If that goes, it's only a matter of time the 2nd shot loses efficacy. Some of the Chinese vaccines are looking really, really weak already.

Edited June 4, 2021 by Upo