Corona Virus main thread

[Indy 3,300]

12 minutes ago, ricardo said:

As VW points out, immunity doesn't  just fade away. We already have more than enough evidence to show that giving a greater number a reasonable level of immunity gives better value than slavishly following a regime that leaves a huge percentage with no protection at all. The UK has now given almost all of the vulnerable groups a high level of protection. Those following the EU recommendations are still around 90% unprotected. A glance at the latest Worldometer data shows how this is playing out in rising infections and fatalities.

You and VW might well be right and I’m pretty sure it’s the same, but until the numbers are in I’d rather go with manufacturers recommendations! But you and VW can contact them and give them your opinion 😉👍

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

4 hours ago, paul moy said:

Yes, they are focussed on two vaccinations because there is a vaccine shortage.

Of course, despite the many posts crowing about the UK, and we have done brilliantly with vaccination, the fact is its only France, Italy and Germany that have more cases a day than us among the important EU nations.

Italy and France are still in the 20k a day problem.

There seems to be some feeling that we are out of the wood. That has yet to be established and even the Governments medical officers are warning of a probable surge after restrictions are eased.

So if it has to be a competition, as Moy seems to want, lets wait until its over to announce the winners. And that will include deaths. And without the claim that Europe cheats and we go over the top.

[Van wink 2,994]

13 minutes ago, Indy said:

You and VW might well be right and I’m pretty sure it’s the same, but until the numbers are in I’d rather go with manufacturers recommendations! But you and VW can contact them and give them your opinion 😉👍

Give JVT a call Indy, I’m sure he will sympathise with your concern but maybe also give you the benefit of his expert view 😉👍

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

I think any doubts about the vaccine are to be tempered with the thought that if its only 10% effective at worst, that will save 12000 lives.

[Van wink 2,994]

14 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

I think any doubts about the vaccine are to be tempered with the thought that if its only 10% effective at worst, that will save 12000 lives.

You may well be right KG, we certainly need to give as many people as possible, as quickly as possible, a level of immunity to protect them from the most serious effects of this virus. 

[Well b back 3,207]

Indeed a very interesting discussion and being a U.K. recipient of Pfizer I hope every day the real life data shows we have done this correctly. Pfizer is the most used vaccine in the world and there is plenty of data beyond the trials. From various countries there is however confirmed data based around the manufacturers recommended way of administering the Pfizer vaccine. This data is simply way beyond any expectations and means that Israel aim to open up to the new normal on 30/3. The results are similar in the us where cases have dropped from 200,000 to 64,000 per day and deaths have already halved. The US are beginning to remove restrictions. Because of their massive supply they now hope to be vaccinated by the end of May. 
Using this for discussion purposes I would question if it was felt our way for Pfizer works best why have others not followed ? I would suspect they are waiting for some evidence, but by the time that evidence comes it would be to late to change a strategy.

One last interesting point coming out of Israel is Pfizer is so effective they do not expect any boosters to have to be used for at least a year.

Away from the U.K. it is said that those that chose Pfizer as their main strategy chose well due to its amazing efficacy. Again outside the U.K. is a major concern of our Pfizer strategy encouraging variants. These are however discussions for the future as until we have absolute results we will never know, however one hopes both strategies prove as effective, why wouldn’t you.

These points are for Pfizer and have nothing to do with Oxford where they had advised this was likely to improve their efficacy.

[ricardo 7,395]

37 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Of course, despite the many posts crowing about the UK, and we have done brilliantly with vaccination, the fact is its only France, Italy and Germany that have more cases a day than us among the important EU nations.

Italy and France are still in the 20k a day problem.

There seems to be some feeling that we are out of the wood. That has yet to be established and even the Governments medical officers are warning of a probable surge after restrictions are eased.

So if it has to be a competition, as Moy seems to want, lets wait until its over to announce the winners. And that will include deaths. And without the claim that Europe cheats and we go over the top.

I'm afraid this is totally incorrect KG. Why some feel the need to paint the EU nations in some sort of golden light when it comes to Covid is a mystery to me. I provided the data yesterday for the larger nations and it is little different from the smaller nations as you will see below. Infections are falling in the UK (largely due to the accelerated vax prog, I would suggest) and rising virtually everywhere else. I leave it you to surmise why this should be.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

Most vaccines seem to have a high level of efficacy WBB, I don’t think it matters much if it’s 70% 80% or 90%, all these figures are very impressive and are to be applauded. The risk of mutations has to be a worry with a Pfizer 12 week regime, the view we seem to have taken is that the risk from widespread community infection is even greater, a judgement has to be made on what’s best in our own particular circumstances. Hopefully we have made the right choice for us, I suspect we probably have.

Edited March 13, 2021 by Van wink

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

45 minutes ago, ricardo said:

I'm afraid this is totally incorrect KG. Why some feel the need to paint the EU nations in some sort of golden light when it comes to Covid is a mystery to me. I provided the data yesterday for the larger nations and it is little different from the smaller nations as you will see below. Infections are falling in the UK (largely due to the accelerated vax prog, I would suggest) and rising virtually everywhere else. I leave it you to surmise why this should be.

 

I have just seen data from Johns Hopkins which has Spain, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania all having less cases than us yesterday.

If you want it as per head you may well have a different set of figures. And ours may be dropping quicker, but the fact remains, we had more cases.

Portugal had less than 600.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Saxmundham the most vaccinated area in Britain

[CANARYKING 638]

1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

Saxmundham the most vaccinated area in Britain

Strange that when Reydon, just ten miles away were without any vaccine for twelve days

[Aggy 755]

2 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

I have just seen data from Johns Hopkins which has Spain, Netherlands, Portugal, Romania all having less cases than us yesterday.

If you want it as per head you may well have a different set of figures. And ours may be dropping quicker, but the fact remains, we had more cases.

Portugal had less than 600.

I don’t really see much point in comparing actual numbers. There were significantly fewer cases of covid on my street yesterday than the whole of Portugal, does that mean Portugal has a serious problem?

[Well b back 3,207]

America today passed the 2.5 million in a day vaccines, with almost 2.6 million. To put this into context on the 20/1 they had administered 16.5 million doses and they set a target of 100 million in a hundred days. To hit that target they needed to get to 1.5 million doses per day, however in 50 days they are already at 89 million.

Their supply / manufacture is now so huge they think they could be done by the end of May. 

[Well b back 3,207]

3 hours ago, Van wink said:

Most vaccines seem to have a high level of efficacy WBB, I don’t think it matters much if it’s 70% 80% or 90%, all these figures are very impressive and are to be applauded. The risk of mutations has to be a worry with a Pfizer 12 week regime, the view we seem to have taken is that the risk from widespread community infection is even greater, a judgement has to be made on what’s best in our own particular circumstances. Hopefully we have made the right choice for us, I suspect we probably have.

Hi VW

I am happy to stand corrected but my understanding has always been that the higher the efficacy the better chance you have of controlling COVID. Of course all the vaccines as you point out are amazing and will do a job. Below is some research by the UEA that was done in January. 
 

https://www.uea.ac.uk/news/-/article/herd-immunity-may-not-be-achievable-even-with-high-vaccine-uptake

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

3 hours ago, Well b back said:

Hi VW

I am happy to stand corrected but my understanding has always been that the higher the efficacy the better chance you have of controlling COVID. Of course all the vaccines as you point out are amazing and will do a job. Below is some research by the UEA that was done in January. 
 

https://www.uea.ac.uk/news/-/article/herd-immunity-may-not-be-achievable-even-with-high-vaccine-uptake

Yes this is concerning as it may make it difficult for us to reopen fully  in June as planned.

 

As for the decision whether to go with 12 weeks or the short gap for Pfizer I have two points. First, it’s a gamble either way. If the approach our scientists have gone for is right, it will save lives. We don’t know for sure (and we won’t until it’s too late as the decision has to be made before the data can be available) but our approach is supported by our general understanding of how vaccinations work with the immune system. I suspect other countries are just being conservative and working on the basis you can never be criticised if you’ve followed the producer protocol. Whereas ours are evaluating and making their own decisions, as they did with approving the vaccines ahead of anyone else. For anyone who’s had Pfizer and wants their second jab sooner, there’s a high chance if we’d gone with the short gap that you wouldn’t have had your first dose at all yet , and someone else would have had the two jabs by now - because delaying the 2nd jab means a lot more people have had the first Pfizer dose than with the short gap. Would you prefer not to have had anything by now, and for someone to have had 2 jabs?

 

Second on the risk of encouraging mutation in the interim period, I’d say the biggest risk for that is a slow vaccine rollout. This gives a long time with a high number of cases confronted with people who are in the gap between 1st and 2nd doses which is what’s happening in Europe due to the low % they’ve vaccinated compared to the UK. In the UK our cases numbers are relatively low and continue to decline and we’re now at the point where 2nd dose numbers will start to ramp up. It’s all about keeping numbers right down while we get the vaccine rolled out across the whole population .

 

Anyone who thinks we’re out of the woods hasn’t been paying attention. We’ll only know with hindsight which approach on the various choices is best. But we can say with certainty that the quicker you get your people vaccinated the better and there’s no doubt the UK approach is the best one there.

[Aggy 755]

3 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

Yes this is concerning as it may make it difficult for us to reopen fully  in June as planned.

 

As for the decision whether to go with 12 weeks or the short gap for Pfizer I have two points. First, it’s a gamble either way. If the approach our scientists have gone for is right, it will save lives.

1. Why might it? The article is from January. We knew all this before the timetable was announced and so far I haven’t seen anything suggesting the timetable will be changed. 

2. It isn’t just about deaths. It’s also about minimising the impact on hospitals so people can go back to work and be allowed to leave their house. I’ve got no idea what the efficacy is after one or two doses, but having every vulnerable person with a degree of protection is likely to keep more people out of hospital than vaccinating 80 year olds twice and leaving everyone else completely unprotected.

[Van wink 2,994]

8 hours ago, Well b back said:

Hi VW

I am happy to stand corrected but my understanding has always been that the higher the efficacy the better chance you have of controlling COVID. Of course all the vaccines as you point out are amazing and will do a job. Below is some research by the UEA that was done in January. 
 

https://www.uea.ac.uk/news/-/article/herd-immunity-may-not-be-achievable-even-with-high-vaccine-uptake

Yes of course the higher the efficiency the better, the point I was making was that by vaccine standards all the vaccines are highly effective.  I have seen the link before, it’s clearly making a reasonable argument, of course the best way to get most people vaccinated in good speed and potentially approach herd immunity is the 12 week strategy. 
A point to consider now is whether R is actually the key factor as we move forward, the aim has always been to prevent serious ill health and overwhelming of the NHS, we may well see R rising above 1 again as we open up but without the corresponding pressure on the NHS, in my view to prevent hospitalisations the more people that have had one or more  jabs the better. But that does of course heighten the risk of mutation as you stated earlier, there are no easy decisions here are there.

Edited March 14, 2021 by Van wink

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

First, this isn't a competition between countries. We all have something to learn from each other with our different approaches. Criticisms should be levelled when governments refuse to learn from each other - in our case our late dithering lockdowns. Our NHS vaccine rollout however is exemplary.

As to the current numbers - only the truly randomized ones are meaningful (are you testing because you think you have the virus or to prove you haven't?) . However for us in the UK the current trend shows that nationally prevalence is falling BUT not everywhere. There are signs in places of future problems. As to comments that the vaccines are lowering prevalence - true but I still very much suspect the lockdown is still doing the heavy lifting  - the vaccines are after all only now just starting to be given to those economically active - and by inference the more out and about and likely to spread it (if this isn't true then our OAPs have a lot of blame and explaining to do).

Comparing to Europe - again there are obvious growing issues  - probably the new UK variant but as in Italy stricter lockdowns now being introduced and 500,000/day vaccines will hopefully turn the tide.

In short it's far far too soon for anybody to be complacent - and certainly don't throw stones if you live in a glass house!

Edited March 14, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

10 hours ago, Aggy said:

I don’t really see much point in comparing actual numbers. There were significantly fewer cases of covid on my street yesterday than the whole of Portugal, does that mean Portugal has a serious problem?

Which is why I made the point. Comparisons don't matter. Its how we look after ourselves that matter.

[Matt Morriss 69]

On 12/03/2021 at 08:37, Herman said:

You're going to be waiting for a long time for mine. 

Haha, yes because you have no answer!!! What a pathetic reply.

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

5 minutes ago, Matt Morriss said:

Haha, yes because you have no answer!!! What a pathetic reply.

There was no need to answer you MM as you seemed to know all the answers already. In fact I'm surprised that all the different governments of the world of all persuasions from China to USA aren't already following your lead. Except they are not.

[Well b back 3,207]

Worrying news that Ireland maybe about to suspend AZ due to blood clots in adults in Norway.

[Well b back 3,207]

Now suspended in Ireland as a precaution whilst information from Norway last night is looked at.

[Van wink 2,994]

4 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Now suspended in Ireland as a precaution whilst information from Norway last night is looked at.

I can only assume that there is additional data now available, will be interesting to see if the WHO change their position, from what I had heard previously the incidence of thrombosis was no greater than what would be expected in the population as a whole.

Edited March 14, 2021 by Van wink

[Well b back 3,207]

46 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I can only assume that there is additional data now available, will be interesting to see if the WHO change their position, from what I had heard previously the incidence of thrombosis was no greater than what would be expected in the population as a whole.

May only be a day but the initial bit is quite specific “ the decision to suspend AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine was based on new information from Norway that emerged last night “.
It goes on to say “ The NIAC meets this morning and we will provide an update after that “

[nevermind, neoliberalism has had it 159]

I think it would be a great idea if the virus would make us sterile, at last an end to the never ending destruction for not very much at all.

[ricardo 7,395]

National

4618 - 52

Local

Almost gone from our neck of the woods.

Ramping up sharply again.

[ricardo 7,395]

3 hours ago, Well b back said:

May only be a day but the initial bit is quite specific “ the decision to suspend AstraZeneca COVID-19 vaccine was based on new information from Norway that emerged last night “.
It goes on to say “ The NIAC meets this morning and we will provide an update after that “

After millions of doses of AZ and Pfizer, pulmonary events appear to be slightly less common with AZ than Pfizer and about what would be expected in the general population.

Edited March 14, 2021 by ricardo

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

17 minutes ago, ricardo said:

National

4618 - 52

Local

Almost gone from our neck of the woods.

Ramping up sharply again.

Yes brilliant to see 560k doses yesterday.

[Van wink 2,994]

21 minutes ago, ricardo said:

After millions of doses of AZ and Pfizer, pulmonary events appear to be slightly less common with AZ than Pfizer and about what would be expected in the general population.

I will wait to see what the data reveals that caused the reaction in Ireland, I’m a bit at a loss to understand what’s going on atm, everything I have read suggests this is an overreaction but maybe there is more undisclosed data to be released

Edited March 14, 2021 by Van wink