Corona Virus main thread

[Van wink 2,994]

47 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Todays new infections are 700 up on last Friday...2nd day running that cases have increased...thats to early of course to affect the 7 day rolling stat yet,  but would not take many more days like this to see even the weekly rolling stat increasing for first time in a couple months. With the ONS saying NI  cases has levelled off, these are just the first small signs that decrease is likely to reverse to increase again...none of us want that, but if it happens lets hope for small increase at most.

I don’t thing you need to worry too much, 1.6 million test EJ, I think you need to compare the positive results with the increase in testing.Our testing capacity really is outstanding.

As said by YF, ONS data is the one to watch.

Edited March 12, 2021 by Van wink

[ricardo 7,348]

43 minutes ago, Essjayess said:

Todays new infections are 700 up on last Friday...2nd day running that cases have increased...thats to early of course to affect the 7 day rolling stat yet,  but would not take many more days like this to see even the weekly rolling stat increasing for first time in a couple months. With the ONS saying NI  cases has levelled off, these are just the first small signs that decrease is likely to reverse to increase again...none of us want that, but if it happens lets hope for small increase at most.

1.6 million tests.

The percentage of positive tests continues to decline.

[ricardo 7,348]

This should open a few eyes to what is going on.

[Indy 3,286]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

This should open a few eyes to what is going on.

This curve must be because of vaccinations, as other countries continue to struggle, hopefully not for too much longer as WBB pointed out EU and global vaccinations are gathering pace now! 💛💚

[Aggy 752]

19 minutes ago, Indy said:

This curve must be because of vaccinations, as other countries continue to struggle, hopefully not for too much longer as WBB pointed out EU and global vaccinations are gathering pace now! 💛💚

Most likely, although I don’t know how many tests are being done in other countries.  Certainly a month or so ago, I don’t think the testing had increased in France anywhere near as much as it had here. If a country is doing significantly fewer tests per 100k population, chances are more of that testing is being done in hospitals, care homes etc. where you’re more likely to have a higher proportion of positive tests.

[ricardo 7,348]

2 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Most likely, although I don’t know how many tests are being done in other countries.  Certainly a month or so ago, I don’t think the testing had increased in France anywhere near as much as it had here. If a country is doing significantly fewer tests per 100k population, chances are more of that testing is being done in hospitals, care homes etc. where you’re more likely to have a higher proportion of positive tests.

Well if you don't like the percentages just look at the raw numbers. Today Italy had 26,824 cases and 25673 the day before.

France had 27166 yesterday and 30303 the day before. Even Germany is running at twice our numbers.

There can be little doubt that things are getting worse over in Europe.

[Aggy 752]

34 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Well if you don't like the percentages just look at the raw numbers. Today Italy had 26,824 cases and 25673 the day before.

France had 27166 yesterday and 30303 the day before. Even Germany is running at twice our numbers.

There can be little doubt that things are getting worse over in Europe.

More a point about why our percentages might be so significantly lower rather than patterns on the continent.

What would be useful is the positive percentage and also total number of tests for all of those countries. If we’re doing roughly the same number of tests then our positive percentage is probably so much lower predominantly/almost exclusively as a result of vaccine effect. If we’re doing significantly more tests it’s probably a mix of vaccine effect and also the fact that we’re doing wider community testing while they are doing more specific testing in covid hotspots.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Just speaking to my Brother in Law who lives in Spain and we were discussing comparisons.

And he pointed out that while the UK as vaccinated so many more than Spain, Spain had actually vaccinated more people twice than us.

So we can study trends, develop data etc but all that is important, at the moment, is what we do for ourselves in the UK.

[Indy 3,286]

OK whichever way you want to look at the trends, EU appear to be focused on two vaccinations as their way forward, my family in Prague are saying the same though they’re very critical of the government in the vaccines and other political views, they are anti government as they all see them as communist lines and harmful to the Czech future, I can see big protests in the very near future from the conversations I’ve had, could be trouble in the Czech Republic soon!

Edited March 13, 2021 by Indy

[Van wink 2,994]

It would appear from press reports that there will be a large uplift in the number of vaccines available and administered next week.First shot of vaccine to be offered to all over 40"s by Easter.

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

11 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Just speaking to my Brother in Law who lives in Spain and we were discussing comparisons.

And he pointed out that while the UK as vaccinated so many more than Spain, Spain had actually vaccinated more people twice than us.

So we can study trends, develop data etc but all that is important, at the moment, is what we do for ourselves in the UK.

Well the truth is if Spain does well that’s good for us and vice versa, if they do badly that’s bad for us. A quick google search shows they’ve just reached 134,000 daily doses last week and 5m total doses. It’s a long time since the UK daily number was as low as 134,000 and last week we had over 90,000 second doses on several days (plus over 200,000 first doses and we’ee heating out numbers are going to be ramped up again soon). Our 2nd dose number will soon shoot up as if you count back 12 weeks now you get to late December when our first dose numbers started to take off.

 

 If I lived in Spain I’d be more interested in whether they’re going to ramp up their numbers to a serious level. At the moment they’re getting left further behind the UK every day.

 

when our neighbours have got their populations vaccinated that will be good for us as well as them, we all want to get back towards normal and that’s the only way. There’s no point pretending their progress is anything but slow at the moment. They should be putting pressure on their government to do better!

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

38 minutes ago, Van wink said:

It would appear from press reports that there will be a large uplift in the number of vaccines available and administered next week.First shot of vaccine to be offered to all over 40"s by Easter.

This is fantastic news VW. Back in January I did a rough calculation and I hoped for my age (late 50s) to get the first jab in early April so I’m incredibly pleased that I had it yesterday, well ahead of my rough schedule!. The whole process was really well run too. It’s really been a testament to everyone involved from the scientists through to the people giving the jabs, it’s just been exceptionally well done.

[Essjayess 307]

20 hours ago, ricardo said:

1.6 million tests.

The percentage of positive tests continues to decline.

Yes, to be honest i had totally overlooked that fact..and its a hugely important fact. A year ago, even just a few months ago, we would never had believed these kind of daily testings amounts would  have been possible. Apart from one or two very small nations, mostly middle east Arab nations, we are mostly head and shoulders above all other nations in daily testings so are catching and recording more cases, hence our statistics are more accurate.

On this basis then, the percentage is indeed declining, but i still think we could see an increase, hopefully albeit a smallish increase.

[paul moy 235]

On 12/03/2021 at 13:46, keelansgrandad said:

What is going on in Devon is more pertinent. Two more care homes with lots of cases and more deaths. Yet all apparently vaccinated.

 

Vaccines take three weeks to be effective and even then they are not 100%, so all being 'vaccinated' is no guarantee of survival.  Then of course, those people would probably also not have had the essential second dose.   

[paul moy 235]

6 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

This is fantastic news VW. Back in January I did a rough calculation and I hoped for my age (late 50s) to get the first jab in early April so I’m incredibly pleased that I had it yesterday, well ahead of my rough schedule!. The whole process was really well run too. It’s really been a testament to everyone involved from the scientists through to the people giving the jabs, it’s just been exceptionally well done.

Don't forget also the billions of investment put into these companies by the UK at an early stage where others failed and are now jealous and bitter of our overwhelming success.

Edited March 13, 2021 by paul moy

[paul moy 235]

6 hours ago, It's Character Forming said:

Well the truth is if Spain does well that’s good for us and vice versa, if they do badly that’s bad for us. A quick google search shows they’ve just reached 134,000 daily doses last week and 5m total doses. It’s a long time since the UK daily number was as low as 134,000 and last week we had over 90,000 second doses on several days (plus over 200,000 first doses and we’ee heating out numbers are going to be ramped up again soon). Our 2nd dose number will soon shoot up as if you count back 12 weeks now you get to late December when our first dose numbers started to take off.

 

 If I lived in Spain I’d be more interested in whether they’re going to ramp up their numbers to a serious level. At the moment they’re getting left further behind the UK every day.

 

when our neighbours have got their populations vaccinated that will be good for us as well as them, we all want to get back towards normal and that’s the only way. There’s no point pretending their progress is anything but slow at the moment. They should be putting pressure on their government to do better!

Countries that have a shortage of vaccine will administer more second doses for the obvious reason that people may never get that second dose in time.  That is hardly a stat to crow about. 

[paul moy 235]

14 hours ago, Indy said:

OK whichever way you want to look at the trends, EU appear to be focused on two vaccinations as their way forward, my family in Prague are saying the same though they’re very critical of the government in the vaccines and other political views, they are anti government as they all see them as communist lines and harmful to the Czech future, I can see big protests in the very near future from the conversations I’ve had, could be trouble in the Czech Republic soon!

Yes, they are focussed on two vaccinations because there is a vaccine shortage.

[ricardo 7,348]

National

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Down to very low numbers in the Fine City

[Well b back 3,190]

45 minutes ago, paul moy said:

Yes, they are focussed on two vaccinations because there is a vaccine shortage.

Absolute tosh, they administered 1.4 million doses yesterday. Why lie ? They may have had problems, but like the world they are moving on as should you. They are so short they have exported 37 million doses to other countries, including 9 million to the Uk. If they still have issues they need to improve its administering the vaccine not supply numbers. If they had the NHS I am sure they would have those issues sorted to.

The way they administer doses is exactly as each manufacturer has recommended, AZ recommend Oxford at 8 - 12 weeks, Pfizer is 21 - 28 days from first dose as is moderna. We know Pfizer is 99.96 2 weeks after 2nd dose is issued ( Israel data ) as yet although likely to be effective still there is still no absolute proof that the 12 week gap will be the same.

[Indy 3,286]

2 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Absolute tosh, they administered 1.4 million doses yesterday. Why lie ? They may have had problems, but like the world they are moving on as should you. They are so short they have exported 37 million doses to other countries, including 9 million to the Uk. If they still have issues they need to improve its administering the vaccine not supply numbers. If they had the NHS I am sure they would have those issues sorted to.

The way they administer doses is exactly as each manufacturer has recommended, AZ recommend Oxford at 8 - 12 weeks, Pfizer is 21 - 28 days from first dose as is moderna. We know Pfizer is 99.96 2 weeks after 2nd dose is issued ( Israel data ) as yet although likely to be effective still there is still no absolute proof that the 12 week gap will be the same.

That still bugs me WBB having been given the Pfizer that without much data this government has taken it to use the 11 week gap, I think those vaccinations with Pfizer should be 28 days!

[Well b back 3,190]

1 hour ago, paul moy said:

Vaccines take three weeks to be effective and even then they are not 100%, so all being 'vaccinated' is no guarantee of survival.  Then of course, those people would probably also not have had the essential second dose.   

If the second dose is essential why is your post encouraging people to break rules after 3 weeks by saying they take effect after 3 weeks and other posts criticise the world for giving the second dose. 

[Well b back 3,190]

1 minute ago, Indy said:

That still bugs me WBB having been given the Pfizer that without much data this government has taken it to use the 11 week gap, I think those vaccinations with Pfizer should be 28 days!

Being in the Pfizer club I tend to agree. The doctors I work with on the vaccine sites understand the logic but also see the efficacy coming out of Israel and America and pray it will still be similar after 12 weeks. Being an active member of the COS thread you will appreciate why Oxford is 8 - 12 weeks. 
At the end of the day we still have to give those second doses, but had there been compelling data to suggest 12 weeks definitely worked for Pfizer ( that’s not to say it does not ) every country would have switched, but until that can be shown 99% of countries ( US included ) are sticking to 21 days. It certainly appears to not be working in cancer groups with 12 weeks, but hopefully that is the only group.

 

 

[ricardo 7,348]

26 minutes ago, Well b back said:

Absolute tosh, they administered 1.4 million doses yesterday. Why lie ? They may have had problems, but like the world they are moving on as should you.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Indy said:

That still bugs me WBB having been given the Pfizer that without much data this government has taken it to use the 11 week gap, I think those vaccinations with Pfizer should be 28 days!

Why would the immune response start to drop off after 28 days?

[Well b back 3,190]

3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Indeed he was stating a shortage in supply not the overall doses given. Yesterday saw the following figures that no longer indicate the same scale of supply problems.

The biggest problem for the future is China and Russia taking advantage of the likes of America keeping to their word going forward and not giving any vaccine to anyone until they have vaccinated in total. They are both giving away huge supplies to countries they “ want future dealings with “ a situation that could become very dangerous.

America 2,302,844

EU 1,391,202

India 1,280,806

Of course these countries / Unions are much bigger than us so will show much higher numbers, but it does show the numbers are being ramped up around the world, and supply is becoming more plentiful ( for the rich nations ) by the day. With 5 days of the week gone 45 million doses so far have been given around the world, so probably will be 60 - 70 million this week. This compares to 300 million doses in the previous 3 months.

[Indy 3,286]

7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Why would the immune response start to drop off after 28 days?

How do we know till the figures are published? I’ll take the facts that all other nations are vaccinating their Pfizer vaccines within the manufacturers instruction within 28 days!

[Van wink 2,994]

5 minutes ago, Indy said:

How do we know till the figures are published? I’ll take the facts that all other nations are vaccinating their Pfizer vaccines within the manufacturers instruction within 28 days!

We know how other vaccines behave, immunity doesn’t just fall away, it’s a pandemic and you need to make best use of what you have imo.

Edited March 13, 2021 by Van wink

[ricardo 7,348]

12 minutes ago, Indy said:

How do we know till the figures are published? I’ll take the facts that all other nations are vaccinating their Pfizer vaccines within the manufacturers instruction within 28 days!

The evidence so far shows that the one dose regime is indeed the best path to follow. 

[Indy 3,286]

Hey I’m not arguing I’m just pointing out facts, what we’re doing is gambling on the vaccine being the same as the others! I’m just pointing out we’re the only ones doing it with Pfizer!

[ricardo 7,348]

45 minutes ago, Indy said:

Hey I’m not arguing I’m just pointing out facts, what we’re doing is gambling on the vaccine being the same as the others! I’m just pointing out we’re the only ones doing it with Pfizer!

As VW points out, immunity doesn't  just fade away. We already have more than enough evidence to show that giving a greater number a reasonable level of immunity gives better value than slavishly following a regime that leaves a huge percentage with no protection at all. The UK has now given almost all of the vulnerable groups a high level of protection. Those following the EU recommendations are still around 90% unprotected. A glance at the latest Worldometer data shows how this is playing out in rising infections and fatalities.