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13 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Anyone who has it can spread it. Ethnicity only seems to be a factor in susceptability, possibly vitamin D related, but that is only speculation.

Aye, as Sonyc says a lot of it is to do with housing quality and density but you also have to look at occupations amongst the communites. Leicester re-peaked mainly to do with the textile industry, where you tend to work in smaller areas (and some ****house bosses by the sounds of it).

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39 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Anyone who has it can spread it. Ethnicity only seems to be a factor in susceptability, possibly vitamin D related, but that is only speculation.

Presumably susceptibility here meaning more likely to have serious consequences such as death or admitted to intensive care.... (rather than more susceptible to just catching it in the first place)?

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3 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Presumably susceptibility here meaning more likely to have serious consequences such as death or admitted to intensive care.... (rather than more susceptible to just catching it in the first place)?

Yes, that is probably correct. I have been following the vitamin D research for several months and it does seem to have some validity although it may only be one factor among many. It also seems that some blood groups are affected to a greater or lesser extent.

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

So my yearly flu vaccination is a waste of time and NHS rescources then?

Should have stated that none has ever been approved for use for any coronavirus Ricardo

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Posted (edited)
1 hour ago, Herman said:

Aye, as Sonyc says a lot of it is to do with housing quality and density but you also have to look at occupations amongst the communites. Leicester re-peaked mainly to do with the textile industry, where you tend to work in smaller areas (and some ****house bosses by the sounds of it).

Agree. It's a more nuanced picture and not about a person's ethnicity as the main characteristic (then suggesting those people are quarantined). 

Edited by sonyc

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5 hours ago, Aggy said:

When was the last time you left the house sonyc? Go and get some fresh air and cheer up!

I'm cheerful enough Aggy, never a problem. Often a poster with positive thoughts too. Nor someone not getting out either (that little dog needs 3 daily walks!).

My point was about the apparent longevity of this outbreak and realisation that this looks like being a problem for longer than I certainly thought. Some people have knowledge I seem to recall about the 1918 pandemic, being up on their history / epidemiology. Yet, maybe I should have kept my thoughts to myself on this occasion 🙂

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1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Yes, that is probably correct. I have been following the vitamin D research for several months and it does seem to have some validity although it may only be one factor among many. It also seems that some blood groups are affected to a greater or lesser extent.

And so much more to learn. I posted many months ago about the possibility of faecal-oral spread, this seems to be being reported again. Another concern seems to be that the second wave in Melbourne appears to be spreading faster than the initial wave. I would treat that view with some scepticism atm but what we do most certainly know is that there is much we are ignorant of when it comes to CV19. The critical thing is to take every possible realistic measure we can to prevent spread.

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Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I'm cheerful enough Aggy, never a problem. Often a poster with positive thoughts too. Nor someone not getting out either (that little dog needs 3 daily walks!).

My point was about the apparent longevity of this outbreak and realisation that this looks like being a problem for longer than I certainly thought. Some people have knowledge I seem to recall about the 1918 pandemic, being up on their history / epidemiology. Yet, maybe I should have kept my thoughts to myself on this occasion 🙂

It’s here till we gain herd immunity, and some, if it makes significant mutation.

Edited by Van wink

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Agree VW. Herd immunity will take years won't it given latest research indications. (5.2% I recall in a major Spanish study).

Whatever report you read though it is getting clearer that C19 continues to confound and surprise the scientific community. So, agree about the learning point made in an earlier post.

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3 hours ago, sonyc said:

I'm cheerful enough Aggy, never a problem. Often a poster with positive thoughts too. Nor someone not getting out either (that little dog needs 3 daily walks!).

My point was about the apparent longevity of this outbreak and realisation that this looks like being a problem for longer than I certainly thought. Some people have knowledge I seem to recall about the 1918 pandemic, being up on their history / epidemiology. Yet, maybe I should have kept my thoughts to myself on this occasion 🙂

No issues Sonyc. I haven’t posted much on this thread recently as i don’t really see the point. As I’ve said a couple of times now, people need to get used to what it is. We’re not going to go into mass nationwide lockdown again unless things get extremely bad - some on here almost seem to want full strict lockdown to last In perpetuity. 

The Spanish fu went on for c3 years but killed up to 50million. We’ve had 500k worldwide deaths in over half a year and many places which had it early are now on top of it or are going in the right direction. Comparisons to the Spanish Flu don’t help anyone - it’s scaremongering and panic inducing when the reality is this is nowhere near as bad. 

Some context needs to be considered and the panic and overreaction needs to be tempered. There will continue to be risk to some, but there will be a return to something like normality for most (for whom there is very little risk - see percentages I posted yesterday). The weekly deaths nationwide are now back below the five year average. Plenty on here posted loads about “the young” having to just accept lockdown and get on with it, comparing this little “sacrifice” to much bigger sacrifices made by people in the past. But now the wider population needs to get that same “get on with it” attitude. Is it going to go away overnight? No. Are we going to have to get used to living with it? Yes. The death rates are manageable and low now (as above, the last few weeks have been below 5 yearly average weekly deaths for the same weeks). Constantly analysing 50 new infections on the other side of the world and trying to suggest it’s something worse than it is doesn’t help anyone. 

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3 hours ago, Van wink said:

Another concern seems to be that the second wave in Melbourne appears to be spreading faster than the initial wave.

That’s because the “initial wave” in Australia was contained to the point it was virtually non existent. In Melbourne the most number of new daily cases in this ‘second wave’ is still under 200 new infections (not deaths but infections) daily. Let’s not try and suggest Melbourne is some sort of example of it going away and coming back stronger. It’s merely a case of an isolated outbreak which had previously been pretty much avoided in Australia and has now flared up. Nothing more nothing less.

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Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, sonyc said:

Agree VW. Herd immunity will take years won't it given latest research indications. (5.2% I recall in a major Spanish study).

Whatever report you read though it is getting clearer that C19 continues to confound and surprise the scientific community. So, agree about the learning point made in an earlier post.

I'm far more hopeful than you.  I suspect that in the most susceptible areas of Britain the non susceptable /immune population will be far higher than 5.2% and in the less susceptible areas you are far less likely to have an effective contact anyway.

And whilst it's true that no coronavirus vaccines exist that might just be be because there never been an incentive to bother with one.

Its not over, not by a long way but we are better placed now. Much better placed.

 

 

Edited by Barbe bleu

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2 minutes ago, Aggy said:

No issues Sonyc. I haven’t posted much on this thread recently as i don’t really see the point. As I’ve said a couple of times now, people need to get used to what it is. We’re not going to go into mass nationwide lockdown again unless things get extremely bad - some on here almost seem to want full strict lockdown to last In perpetuity. 

The Spanish fu went on for c3 years but killed up to 50million. We’ve had 500k worldwide deaths in over half a year and many places which had it early are now on top of it or are going in the right direction. Comparisons to the Spanish Flu don’t help anyone - it’s scaremongering and panic inducing when the reality is this is nowhere near as bad. 

Some context needs to be considered and the panic and overreaction needs to be tempered. There will continue to be risk to some, but there will be a return to something like normality for most (for whom there is very little risk - see percentages I posted yesterday). The weekly deaths nationwide are now back below the five year average. Plenty on here posted loads about “the young” having to just accept lockdown and get on with it, comparing this little “sacrifice” to much bigger sacrifices made by people in the past. But now the wider population needs to get that same “get on with it” attitude. Is it going to go away overnight? No. Are we going to have to get used to living with it? Yes. The death rates are manageable and low now (as above, the last few weeks have been below 5 yearly average weekly deaths for the same weeks). Constantly analysing 50 new infections on the other side of the world and trying to suggest it’s something worse than it is doesn’t help anyone. 

Cheers Aggy. I agree about no more mass lockdowns, completely. Perhaps if we had known enough early in we may not have needed to do that either. It's going to be decades I read before the debt is paid. Lots of pain to come for lots of people. I didn't know that the Spanish flu lasted 3 years or killed 50m! (I could have researched but was lazy this time).Times are different though and our infrastructure is so different to a century ago.

Perspective is the operative word. My post was just me letting some feelings go outwards rather than introjecting them, which is not healthy to do.

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30 minutes ago, Aggy said:

That’s because the “initial wave” in Australia was contained to the point it was virtually non existent. In Melbourne the most number of new daily cases in this ‘second wave’ is still under 200 new infections (not deaths but infections) daily. Let’s not try and suggest Melbourne is some sort of example of it going away and coming back stronger. It’s merely a case of an isolated outbreak which had previously been pretty much avoided in Australia and has now flared up. Nothing more nothing less.

Yep that’s why I said I would treat it with some scepticism at the moment, more information required for my part.

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Posted (edited)
On 09/07/2020 at 16:25, ricardo said:

Anyone who has it can spread it. Ethnicity only seems to be a factor in susceptability, possibly vitamin D related, but that is only speculation.

It's not speculation, Ricardo, all the data available indicates a lack of vitamin D in black, Asian and minority ethnic communities.

https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1548/rr-6

But of course, lack of vitamin D is merely one of the reasons why BAME are more susceptible to the virus.

Edited by Jools

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On 09/07/2020 at 21:37, Aggy said:

That’s because the “initial wave” in Australia was contained to the point it was virtually non existent. In Melbourne the most number of new daily cases in this ‘second wave’ is still under 200 new infections (not deaths but infections) daily. Let’s not try and suggest Melbourne is some sort of example of it going away and coming back stronger. It’s merely a case of an isolated outbreak which had previously been pretty much avoided in Australia and has now flared up. Nothing more nothing less.

Look at Israel if you want to see a good example of a second wave.

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Posted (edited)
57 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said:

Look at Israel if you want to see a good example of a second wave.

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According to the first link below, Israel was testing 6,000 a day in April. According to the second, they tested over 25,500 the Tuesday just gone.

https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/coronavirus/1588077105-israel-raises-diagnosing-capacity-to-15-000-coronavirus-tests-per-day

I”ve actually lost the article I was going to post first, but here’s another which says on 28 April they tested 9,000. They were looking to increase/ had just announced an increase in capacity (not actual tests done) to 15,000 per day - showing steady increase in testing (the 6,000 I saw was early April which makes sense).

Second article referred to above confirming over 25,500 tests done on Tuesday just gone:

https://www.ynetnews.com/article/Sy3Xu1QJD

I can’t vouch for the accuracy of these as I don’t know anything about Israeli news outlets. But the death rate doesn’t show much change either despite the new infections picking up in late May  (jumped to six deaths a day earlier this week but then instantly dropped back to 4 and then 2 - which is going the opposite way to the increase in infections).

So testing increasing fourfold (threefold if we say 9000), increased number of infections, but deaths staying the same. That to me sounds far more to do with the testing increase and increased collation of data than a second wave.

Edited by Aggy

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On 07/07/2020 at 08:57, sonyc said:

Following up on the Lancet link (replying to Jools...

Coronavirus: Spanish study casts doubt on herd immunity feasibility - BBC News

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53315983

 

Japan have had no Lockdowns or mass testing...

Coronavirus Cases: 20,719

Deaths: 982

 

Looks like the Spaniards should've included Japan in their study, sonyc 🙃

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8 minutes ago, Jools said:

Japan have had no Lockdowns or mass testing...

Coronavirus Cases: 20,719

Deaths: 982

 

Looks like the Spaniards should've included Japan in their study, sonyc 🙃

Japans Covid19 details are cultural, also thier Prime Minister wasn't on holiday at the beginning, they re-acted quicker and in a more decisive way.

Slowing the outbreak’s growth helped Mr Abe to declare a state of emergency at the right moment, when the number of cases was still manageable. “If the decision had been made a week later then the number of cases would have exploded,” said Prof Shibuya, comparing the timing of Japan’s declaration with lockdowns in Italy and the UK. The state of emergency did not force people to stay at home but many respected the plea. “Japan’s mild lockdown seems to have had a real lockdown effect,” he said. Other countries might not have had the same level of compliance with a voluntary request, said Prof Hori. Prof Shibuya said Japan’s approach was not perfect and other Asian countries had done better. He said more testing was vital. “Because they lacked the tests, they couldn’t prevent exponential growth in Tokyo and the big cities,” he said.

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And Asian countries have a cultural bias to "individual sacrifice to protect society" which specifically for Covid impact means almost everyone is wearing a mask. The Hong Kong health officer made this very point when asked about almost no deaths there. Taiwan government handed out masks to every person in the country. So competent governments can do this, IF they want to do it. 

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16 minutes ago, Surfer said:

And Asian countries have a cultural bias to "individual sacrifice to protect society" which specifically for Covid impact means almost everyone is wearing a mask. The Hong Kong health officer made this very point when asked about almost no deaths there. Taiwan government handed out masks to every person in the country. So competent governments can do this, IF they want to do it. 

Dozens of US marines have been infected with coronavirus at two bases on the southern Japanese island of Okinawa in what is feared to be a significant outbreak. Okinawa prefectural officials said they could say only a few dozen cases had been found recently because the US military asked that the exact figure not be released.

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Yes, the "almost everyone" comment was reflected on also by the Hong Kong health officer :  "except European and US visitors." 

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38 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

Japans Covid19 details are cultural, also thier Prime Minister wasn't on holiday at the beginning, they re-acted quicker and in a more decisive way.

Slowing the outbreak’s growth helped Mr Abe to declare a state of emergency at the right moment, when the number of cases was still manageable. “If the decision had been made a week later then the number of cases would have exploded,” said Prof Shibuya, comparing the timing of Japan’s declaration with lockdowns in Italy and the UK. The state of emergency did not force people to stay at home but many respected the plea. “Japan’s mild lockdown seems to have had a real lockdown effect,” he said. Other countries might not have had the same level of compliance with a voluntary request, said Prof Hori. Prof Shibuya said Japan’s approach was not perfect and other Asian countries had done better. He said more testing was vital. “Because they lacked the tests, they couldn’t prevent exponential growth in Tokyo and the big cities,” he said.

Asking people nicely doesn't sound very decisive.

I suspect that government action does not explain Japan's experience as well as cultural factors or something intrinsic (diet, genetics etc) in the population 

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And "competence" devolves down to State governments when the Federal government is weak or incompetent, or in the US case even malevolent. There is a very clear political correlation to this graph.... and even in California there is a very political fight over what measure are appropriate, and yes guess which party's leaders are leading the resistance to wearing masks. 

Since lockwown lifted .jpg

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1 hour ago, Jools said:

Japan have had no Lockdowns or mass testing...

Coronavirus Cases: 20,719

Deaths: 982

 

Looks like the Spaniards should've included Japan in their study, sonyc 🙃

Perhaps a view reported from a more favoured publication might interest you then ...

Coronavirus: Chinese expert says 'herd immunity' impossible | Daily Mail Online https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8487375/Chinese-expert-says-completely-impossible-tackle-COVID-19-herd-immunity.html

 

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Why the sudden change from Johnson and Trump on wearing facemasks? That horse bolted a long time ago.

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2 hours ago, Herman said:

Why the sudden change from Johnson and Trump on wearing facemasks? That horse bolted a long time ago.

Trump was visiting a hospital, Johnson will do anything for a photo op

Gove has said it is up to individuals or businesses themselves - as cuts to the police means it cannot be enforced.

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