Corona Virus main thread

[sonyc 5,519]

1 minute ago, Van wink said:

It’s a great concept linked with ethical trading practice, reduced food miles and associated environmental benefits, putting people, consumers, back in touch with where food comes from and how it’s produced. The challenge is one of scale to make products universally available and not the niche purchases of only those that can afford the choice.

Yep, agree wholly. It's scaling it but also making such a movement understandable to the wide public to build buy-in. It's so simple really as a concept yet truly powerful. Like Bill says though I don't think this is what Brexit is about. 

Food distribution is taking place to the disadvantaged where I live but it is very small charity-driven. Therefore it won't be long lived even if honourable. Yet, (bringing this to C19 and possible lessons)  if diabetes, obesity and maybe other health factors CAN be part of such a movement to eat well, eat locally then there is a chance. I'm not too hopeful but you never know. As mentioned earlier, it's the kind of thing I would love to push because I would believe in it.

[Van wink 2,994]

25 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Yep, agree wholly. It's scaling it but also making such a movement understandable to the wide public to build buy-in. It's so simple really as a concept yet truly powerful. Like Bill says though I don't think this is what Brexit is about. 

Food distribution is taking place to the disadvantaged where I live but it is very small charity-driven. Therefore it won't be long lived even if honourable. Yet, (bringing this to C19 and possible lessons)  if diabetes, obesity and maybe other health factors CAN be part of such a movement to eat well, eat locally then there is a chance. I'm not too hopeful but you never know. As mentioned earlier, it's the kind of thing I would love to push because I would believe in it.

You want to come and live in Aylsham when you move back

https://www.slowfoodaylsham.org.uk/

[Surfer 1,547]

Meanwhile, I need to congratulate the UK on the progress that you have collectively made in restraining the virus. Over here we are heading for a disaster; almost exclusively in Republican Party led States I might add, a direct outcome of the politicization of Covid response - thanks so much Donald Trump and Fox News.... some States like California are seeing rapidly rising positive cases due to greatly increased daily testing, but others like Arizona, Florida, Texas are seeing their rapidly rising positive cases based on increases in positive test rates - CA 5% compared to TX 14%, FL 16%, AZ 23%

Edited June 22, 2020 by Surfer

[Van wink 2,994]

7 hours ago, Surfer said:

Meanwhile, I need to congratulate the UK on the progress that you have collectively made in restraining the virus. Over here we are heading for a disaster; almost exclusively in Republican Party led States I might add, a direct outcome of the politicization of Covid response - thanks so much Donald Trump and Fox News.... some States like California are seeing rapidly rising positive cases due to greatly increased daily testing, but others like Arizona, Florida, Texas are seeing their rapidly rising positive cases based on increases in positive test rates - CA 5% compared to TX 14%, FL 16%, AZ 23%

I fear our level of community infection is still too high to be making the loosening of restrictions we are likely to hear about today. I shall be following the figures very closely over the next few days in the hope that new daily infections see significant further falls prior to July 4th.

[BroadstairsR 2,168]

8 hours ago, Surfer said:

Meanwhile, I need to congratulate the UK on the progress that you have collectively made in restraining the virus. Over here we are heading for a disaster; almost exclusively in Republican Party led States I might add, a direct outcome of the politicization of Covid response - thanks so much Donald Trump and Fox News.... some States like California are seeing rapidly rising positive cases due to greatly increased daily testing, but others like Arizona, Florida, Texas are seeing their rapidly rising positive cases based on increases in positive test rates - CA 5% compared to TX 14%, FL 16%, AZ 23%

Whilst our Government's approach to the pandemic has been a bit shambolic and at times utterly clueless (particularly when considering their slowness in dealing with ports of entry,) with many a stuttering U-turn I feel some balance has to be applied when comparing the effects of it countrywise.

The following by Robert Lee of briefingsforbritain.co.uk makes things clearer in this respect:- 

"With its death toll apparently the highest in Europe the UK’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic has been widely criticised. Serious mistakes have been made, but much of the criticism is premature, unbalanced and based on misleading data. The UK’s economic policy response has been sure-footed. The UK economy may suffer less and recover better than the EU and the US. The EU is now under existential threat, while the US risks high inflation. 

The Uk was always a prime candidate to have one of the highest death tolls in Europe in any global pandemic, due to the following:

The UK’s population of 66m is the 2^nd highest in Europe – only Germany is higher at 83m. It has a population density 17% higher than Germany, 36% higher than Italy, 230% more than France, and nearly 300% higher than Spain. Population density is a major factor aiding transmission of disease.

*London is by far the largest city, and the most globally connected, with 9m people compared to 3,7m in Berlin, the next biggest city. Big global cities are particularly vulnerable to pandemics – London has had the most deaths of any UK region, with a death rate 75% higher than in the rest of the UK.

*Before the crisis the UK had amongst the lowest critical care beds per head of population. Yet the NHS has not at any stage been overwhelmed by the inflow of Covid-19 patients, as occurred at times in Italy, Spain, France, and New York.

Media and political criticism rarely mentions these basic but crucial facts, which alone make the UK’s relatively high death toll predictable. The media also often confuse death rates with overall death numbers. On currently available data the UK does NOT have the highest death rate in Europe. Measured as number of deaths per head of population Belgium has by far the highest death rate at 730 per million, while the UK’s 433 per million is also below that of Italy (483) and Spain (540).

The UK lists Covid-19 as a “notifiable disease”, so that anyone who dies WITH Covid-19 is counted as a Covid-19 death, whether the patient actually died OF Covid-19 or not. Other countries may be recording such deaths as pneumonia or other respiratory disease cases. The UK Covid-19 death data now includes deaths in all settings and not only in hospitals. Not all the Covid-19 data from other countries is compiled in this way. France for example does not yet include home deaths. Many Covid-19 related deaths in Spain outside hospital are not counted in that toll because of very limited testing. No wrongdoing is implied, but this illustrates the complexity of international comparisons – a point made by eminent statisticians but widely ignored by critics.

Such comparisons are in any case very premature. This pandemic has many months to run. Many critical decisions are still to be made and the consequences of previous decisions still to unfold. The UK was slow in instituting the lockdown, and building up testing capacity, but its strengths in medical science – and its collaborative approach to the global search for treatments and vaccines – might mean it fares better in the next phase. Italy, Spain, and France adopted more draconian lockdowns than the UK, backed by more severe enforcement. The longer term negative impact of these measures on the economy and on public health might be worse than in the UK. Only time will tell. Health scientists agree that the key metric in international comparisons is “excess mortality” – the extent to which deaths from all causes are higher than would be normally expected over the course of the pandemic as a whole. This data is calculated according to international standards, but will not be available for many months yet. As time progresses though, the economic outcomes of the pandemic seem likely to prove increasingly crucial."

P.S. My big fear has long  been for the time when Coronavirus hits the slums of Africa, Asia and South America. Despite having to contend with Bumbling Boris we are mega-fortunate compared with the millions in Rio, Bombay and various African cities who, with little chance of social distancing, poverty and second rate health provision are now, and on a daily basis, increasingly succumbing to this plague. I use the word plague with intent as the death rate amongst these unfortunates could well eventually equal that of the Black Death.

They are already in need of urgent help, whilst the Western economies, China and others concern themselves  with estimating percentages with regards to economic growth rates. 

 

Edited June 23, 2020 by BroadstairsR

[Herman 9,767]

11 million pounds and counting spent on the track and trace app. 

[Barbe bleu 826]

5 hours ago, BroadstairsR said:

Whilst our Government's approach to the pandemic has been a bit shambolic and at times utterly clueless (particularly when considering their slowness in dealing with ports of entry,) with many a stuttering U-turn I feel some balance has to be applied when comparing the effects of it countrywise.

The following by Robert Lee of briefingsforbritain.co.uk makes things clearer in this respect:- 

"With its death toll apparently the highest in Europe the UK’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic has been widely criticised. Serious mistakes have been made, but much of the criticism is premature, unbalanced and based on misleading data. The UK’s economic policy response has been sure-footed. The UK economy may suffer less and recover better than the EU and the US. The EU is now under existential threat, while the US risks high inflation. 

The Uk was always a prime candidate to have one of the highest death tolls in Europe in any global pandemic, due to the following:

The UK’s population of 66m is the 2^nd highest in Europe – only Germany is higher at 83m. It has a population density 17% higher than Germany, 36% higher than Italy, 230% more than France, and nearly 300% higher than Spain. Population density is a major factor aiding transmission of disease.

*London is by far the largest city, and the most globally connected, with 9m people compared to 3,7m in Berlin, the next biggest city. Big global cities are particularly vulnerable to pandemics – London has had the most deaths of any UK region, with a death rate 75% higher than in the rest of the UK.

*Before the crisis the UK had amongst the lowest critical care beds per head of population. Yet the NHS has not at any stage been overwhelmed by the inflow of Covid-19 patients, as occurred at times in Italy, Spain, France, and New York.

Media and political criticism rarely mentions these basic but crucial facts, which alone make the UK’s relatively high death toll predictable. The media also often confuse death rates with overall death numbers. On currently available data the UK does NOT have the highest death rate in Europe. Measured as number of deaths per head of population Belgium has by far the highest death rate at 730 per million, while the UK’s 433 per million is also below that of Italy (483) and Spain (540).

The UK lists Covid-19 as a “notifiable disease”, so that anyone who dies WITH Covid-19 is counted as a Covid-19 death, whether the patient actually died OF Covid-19 or not. Other countries may be recording such deaths as pneumonia or other respiratory disease cases. The UK Covid-19 death data now includes deaths in all settings and not only in hospitals. Not all the Covid-19 data from other countries is compiled in this way. France for example does not yet include home deaths. Many Covid-19 related deaths in Spain outside hospital are not counted in that toll because of very limited testing. No wrongdoing is implied, but this illustrates the complexity of international comparisons – a point made by eminent statisticians but widely ignored by critics.

Such comparisons are in any case very premature. This pandemic has many months to run. Many critical decisions are still to be made and the consequences of previous decisions still to unfold. The UK was slow in instituting the lockdown, and building up testing capacity, but its strengths in medical science – and its collaborative approach to the global search for treatments and vaccines – might mean it fares better in the next phase. Italy, Spain, and France adopted more draconian lockdowns than the UK, backed by more severe enforcement. The longer term negative impact of these measures on the economy and on public health might be worse than in the UK. Only time will tell. Health scientists agree that the key metric in international comparisons is “excess mortality” – the extent to which deaths from all causes are higher than would be normally expected over the course of the pandemic as a whole. This data is calculated according to international standards, but will not be available for many months yet. As time progresses though, the economic outcomes of the pandemic seem likely to prove increasingly crucial."

P.S. My big fear has long  been for the time when Coronavirus hits the slums of Africa, Asia and South America. Despite having to contend with Bumbling Boris we are mega-fortunate compared with the millions in Rio, Bombay and various African cities who, with little chance of social distancing, poverty and second rate health provision are now, and on a daily basis, increasingly succumbing to this plague. I use the word plague with intent as the death rate amongst these unfortunates could well eventually equal that of the Black Death.

They are already in need of urgent help, whilst the Western economies, China and others concern themselves  with estimating percentages with regards to economic growth rates. 

 

Thanks for this.  Interesting read.

The effect on the developing world is going to be interesting.  I wonder of the massive economic success some of these countries have had in a way works against the figures as increasing life expectancy and relative wealth increases the % of the population in the vulnerable category?

[Surfer 1,547]

It was an interesting read, and obvious at the outset that it was going to be a whitewashing pro-UK nationalist one, due every skepticism. What evidence is there for the this statement ? It’s just thrown out there as a fact. 

 “ The EU is now under existential threat, while the US risks high inflation. “ 

Then in the main body of the article, he correctly says the true measure of a country’s response is the excess deaths over prior year averages. But we do not need to wait “ many months yet “ for that data - is available now; and on both an absolute and per capita basis the UK is the worst in Europe. Waiting until the pandemic is over to make that analysis may be tempting to do when you are in this position, but it’s a head in the sand idea. 

Edited June 23, 2020 by Surfer

[Bill 1,788]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

11 million pounds and counting spent on the track and trace app. 

probably taken from the £350m extra the NHS  are getting

mind you I have heard most of that went on having a surplus of PPE and 50,000 extra nurses 🙄

[Bill 1,788]

"The UK lists Covid-19 as a “notifiable disease”, so that anyone who dies WITH Covid-19 is counted as a Covid-19 death, whether the patient actually died OF Covid-19 or not. "

60,000 excess deaths suggest that is just weasel words - as is the rest

those deaths cannot be explained away by guff about counting methods

the only interesting bit is why this nonsense is being offered up

[Barbe bleu 826]

1 hour ago, Surfer said:

 

Then in the main body of the article, he correctly says the true measure of a country’s response is the excess deaths over prior year averages. But we do not need to wait “ many months yet “ for that data - is available now; and on both an absolute and per capita basis the UK is the worst in Europe. Waiting until the pandemic is over to make that analysis may be tempting to do when you are in this position, but it’s a head in the sand idea. 

I think you may have answered your own question there.  

The point he is  making is that to know the overall effect you have to wait until the end of the pandemic (hopefully in October with a vaccine) and that anything else is looking at a half time score. 

Your head in the sand analogy is sound but the two are not mutually exclusive.  You can react to the data as it comes in whilst also acknowledging that there is some way to go .

I see though that Bill is back on so I will duck out of this conversation again.

Edited June 23, 2020 by Barbe bleu

[Bill 1,788]

1 hour ago, Surfer said:

It was an interesting read, and obvious at the outset that it was going to be a whitewashing pro-UK nationalist one, due every skepticism. What evidence is there for the this statement ? It’s just thrown out there as a fact. 

 “ The EU is now under existential threat, while the US risks high inflation. “ 

Then in the main body of the article, he correctly says the true measure of a country’s response is the excess deaths over prior year averages. But we do not need to wait “ many months yet “ for that data - is available now; and on both an absolute and per capita basis the UK is the worst in Europe. Waiting until the pandemic is over to make that analysis may be tempting to do when you are in this position, but it’s a head in the sand idea. 

Pretty much par for the course

Drop in a few misleading claims among agreed positions, and job done

Not so good when folk actually read and point out those 'inaccuracies'

so best head for the hill, till it does down again

Meanwhile it will be curious to which name pops up this time 😜

[Aggy 755]

2 hours ago, Surfer said:

It was an interesting read, and obvious at the outset that it was going to be a whitewashing pro-UK nationalist one, due every skepticism. What evidence is there for the this statement ? It’s just thrown out there as a fact. 

 “ The EU is now under existential threat, while the US risks high inflation. “ 

Then in the main body of the article, he correctly says the true measure of a country’s response is the excess deaths over prior year averages. But we do not need to wait “ many months yet “ for that data - is available now; and on both an absolute and per capita basis the UK is the worst in Europe. Waiting until the pandemic is over to make that analysis may be tempting to do when you are in this position, but it’s a head in the sand idea. 

We will need to wait many months to find out how many excess deaths are caused by financial (and other) impacts of lockdown.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

With the economy in tatters, I think now is the time for the UK to change to a high wage, high cost of living economy. Many have done this successfully because there was a will to do it, New Zealand being a modern example.

The insistence that the market will decide our fate is a busted flush and this pandemic has shown it. The wealth of this nation is in the people who produce, not move money around.

Reinvest in Industry and take back wha twe have given to other nations all for the sake of economy.

[Herman 9,767]

 

[sonyc 5,519]

I support the relaxations outlined overall but I got the distinct impression from that last press conference that Chris Whitty was extremely cautious about the 2m rule and the continuing danger of socialising (viz meat packing plants and pubs etc).

[Barbe bleu 826]

5 minutes ago, sonyc said:

I support the relaxations outlined overall but I got the distinct impression from that last press conference that Chris Whitty was extremely cautious about the 2m rule and the continuing danger of socialising (viz meat packing plants and pubs etc).

Well 2m is undeniably safer than 1m so of course there will be concern but that must be balanced.

I feel a bit sorry for the professional advisors who are being asked for black and white answers to shades of grey questions. 

[Surfer 1,547]

1 hour ago, Aggy said:

We will need to wait many months to find out how many excess deaths are caused by financial (and other) impacts of lockdown.

That may indeed be true, but my point is the writer was arguing to not to measure the impact of CoronaVirus until it is over. Frankly that's a task for historians, the role for government is to understand what is happening now. And the value of of excess deaths is it indicates the impact of the pandemic on the total average death rate - so yes a few less from traffic accidents, maybe a few more from suicide, but we can already see over 60,000 excess deaths by the end of May and it's reasonable to say "that's the net effect of Covid -19" The Financial Times has been publishing this data.  For example see this link: 

https://www.ft.com/content/3c53ab12-d859-4ceb-b262-f6a0221ca129

[Van wink 2,994]

32 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Well 2m is undeniably safer than 1m so of course there will be concern but that must be balanced.

I feel a bit sorry for the professional advisors who are being asked for black and white answers to shades of grey questions. 

The media, and most people, quite understandably don’t understand the concept of risk. Everyone wants binary answers and questions are often driven by journalists trying to achieve a gotcha moment rather than asking questions of genuine public interest inviting an open and not guarded reply.

I think the professionals have carried themselves pretty well, anyone appointed to head up a government executive agency realises that they are moving into a political arena so maybe sympathy isn’t appropriate, having said that they have all been professional and maintained integrity imo.

The biggest concern for me is whether Van Tam has been silenced for his implied  criticism of Cummings, if that is the case then it’s appalling.

[BigFish 1,987]

Bottom line is Johnson had the choice of not controlling the virus or trashing the economy. He couldn't make up his mind so did both.

Edited June 24, 2020 by BigFish

[Bill 1,788]

2 hours ago, BigFish said:

Bottom line is Johnson had the choice of not controlling the virus or trashing the economy. He couldn't make up his mind so did both.

Would that have been when the useless tub of lard to another break

12 days absent in late February, when the vital decisions should have been made

The attendance rate of Farage at the EU Parliament

[sonyc 5,519]

Inside the plan to track Covid-19 by analysing everyone’s **** | WIRED UK

 

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-sewage-analysis-uk?utm_medium=email&utm_source=Wired+Awake&utm_campaign=Wired+Awake_2020-06-25&utm_content=The+plan+to+track+Covid-19+by+analysing+everyone's+****&utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The Email (From WIRED) 250620&utm_content=The plan to track Covid-19 by analysing everyone's ****

 

 

[Herman 9,767]

What a job. 😂

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

16 minutes ago, sonyc said:

Inside the plan to track Covid-19 by analysing everyone’s **** | WIRED UK

 

https://www.wired.co.uk/article/coronavirus-sewage-analysis-uk?utm_medium=email&utm_source=Wired+Awake&utm_campaign=Wired+Awake_2020-06-25&utm_content=The+plan+to+track+Covid-19+by+analysing+everyone's+****&utm_source=Adestra&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=The Email (From WIRED) 250620&utm_content=The plan to track Covid-19 by analysing everyone's ****

 

 

Thats a relief

[sonyc 5,519]

It's what the Dutch have been doing, trying to get a marker before it outbreaks fully. 

[sonyc 5,519]

On a slightly less earthy subject I thought this was a lighter take on the relaxation of lockdown.

 

[Herman 9,767]

Norfolk, it maybe too late, but close your roads. 

[Jools 584]

On 24/06/2020 at 11:52, BigFish said:

Bottom line is Johnson had the choice of not controlling the virus or trashing the economy. He couldn't make up his mind so did both.

Regarding the virus and consequent lockdown, what do you think Labour would've done differently?

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 hours ago, Jools said:

Regarding the virus and consequent lockdown, what do you think Labour would've done differently?

They aren't in power. For all we know they could have been worse. But we will never know because too many people thought they were doing the right thing voting for this scoundrel and his cronies. And the mess we have been in is down to them.

[Creative Midfielder 1,996]

6 hours ago, Jools said:

Regarding the virus and consequent lockdown, what do you think Labour would've done differently?

Well let's look at the characters and personalities of the two leaders; Johnson - lazy, no grasp of detail, serial liar, indecisive and totally incompetent. Starmer - high achieving legal career, forensic grasp of detail, decisive and extremely competent.

So its all speculation after that but I think its probably pretty safe to assume that had Labour been in power Starmer wouldn't have had several weeks holiday skipping five Cobra meetings in the process and from that he would have organised a considerably more timely and competent response to the virus than the shambles which Johnson managed to engineer.

 

Edited June 25, 2020 by Creative Midfielder