Corona Virus main thread

[Aggy 755]

1 minute ago, Barbe bleu said:

The Spanish death figures are very odd.  Lower death rate than any other large European nation despite being the worst hit at one point and having a similar strategy to france and italy.

Could be that the virus was in a few hotspots and not able to permeate out in the way it did in the UK from London (possibly due to Spains geography and population distribution?) Or maybe there is another explanation for the figures?

 

The way they’ve counted has changed - they now no longer update daily apparently and do it weekly. If you look at a chart there is actually a drop in overall number of deaths around the end of May. When they initially announced no new deaths for the first time, individual regions of Spain announced deaths. I don’t know enough about how they’re counting -  but odd is perhaps the right word!

[Aggy 755]

6 minutes ago, Herman said:

I think the difference is that Spain didn't realise how big a problem they had until too late. We could see it coming and still did little. 

In what way? They locked down a week before us (although only a day before Boris initially asked people to stay home) - did they have significantly more infections/deaths by that stage? I’m not sure.
People are criticising Boris and co for not acting sooner as they ‘must’ have known about this since January when it was kicking off in Asia - why is Spain any different?

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Is this the same Spain where the number of deaths per thousand population is virtually the same as the Uk? 
 

Edit: not making any excuses for our government but not convinced Spain is the best example of somewhere doing things significantly better than us!

Thing is Aggy, Spain has regional authorities who had a measure of autonomy in their actions. Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia still have strict measures where others have been quicker to unlock.

Despite us all being British, the UK is just as regional as Spain. But our Government did not trust the regions to handle the virus and by imposing unilateral decisions, they have missed an opportunity. They are spineless. The demonstrations at the weekend, totally understandable, should not have been allowed. The same people who protested and ignored the guidelines obey them when queueing at a supermarket.

Here in Cornwall where I live, social distancing is not much of a problem apart from shopping. My granddaughter is Diabetic One and given the letter 12 weeks ago but was denied riding her horse  and told to stay indoors. She didn't have to meet another soul to look after and ride her horse.

But Central Government has always been afraid to allow the regions to look after themselves and at least Belair gave the other nations in the UK some form of autonomy.

[Aggy 755]

25 minutes ago, Barry Brockes said:

I fully accept that we couldn't replicate the success they've had in NZ Lakey but there's one heck of a difference between their death rate and ours. My cousin made the point several times that the vast majority of the population in NZ trust the PM and when she said, in very clear terms, this is what we must do, the people did it, with few exceptions. And the penalties for non-compliance made people think twice before breaking the rules. 

This is an example of acting early helping IMO. New Zealand never had the levels of infections or deaths that would cause significant problems. I’ve got family in NZ and it sounds like as a whole lockdown was observed well and was stricter than here. However, I’m not sure that the level of lockdown is the reason for the lower number of deaths, more that it was never allowed to take hold in the first place.

[Mark .Y. 352]

Just now, keelansgrandad said:

Is this the same Spain where the number of deaths per thousand population is virtually the same as the Uk? 
 

Edit: not making any excuses for our government but not convinced Spain is the best example of somewhere doing things significantly better than us!

Thing is Aggy, Spain has regional authorities who had a measure of autonomy in their actions. Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia still have strict measures where others have been quicker to unlock.

Despite us all being British, the UK is just as regional as Spain. But our Government did not trust the regions to handle the virus and by imposing unilateral decisions, they have missed an opportunity. They are spineless. The demonstrations at the weekend, totally understandable, should not have been allowed. The same people who protested and ignored the guidelines obey them when queueing at a supermarket.

Here in Cornwall where I live, social distancing is not much of a problem apart from shopping. My granddaughter is Diabetic One and given the letter 12 weeks ago but was denied riding her horse  and told to stay indoors. She didn't have to meet another soul to look after and ride her horse.

But Central Government has always been afraid to allow the regions to look after themselves and at least Belair gave the other nations in the UK some form of autonomy.

Sorry kg, but that is incorrect.

The Autonomous region authorities had no choice in when to lift restrictions, it was all decided by the Central Government.

I remember watching the head of Madrid's authority on TV a few weeks ago. She was furious that Madrid wasn't being allowed to move on to the next stage of easing of restrictions at that time.

[Aggy 755]

Just now, keelansgrandad said:

Is this the same Spain where the number of deaths per thousand population is virtually the same as the Uk? 
 

Edit: not making any excuses for our government but not convinced Spain is the best example of somewhere doing things significantly better than us!

Thing is Aggy, Spain has regional authorities who had a measure of autonomy in their actions. Madrid, Barcelona, Valencia still have strict measures where others have been quicker to unlock.

Despite us all being British, the UK is just as regional as Spain. But our Government did not trust the regions to handle the virus and by imposing unilateral decisions, they have missed an opportunity. They are spineless. The demonstrations at the weekend, totally understandable, should not have been allowed. The same people who protested and ignored the guidelines obey them when queueing at a supermarket.

Here in Cornwall where I live, social distancing is not much of a problem apart from shopping. My granddaughter is Diabetic One and given the letter 12 weeks ago but was denied riding her horse  and told to stay indoors. She didn't have to meet another soul to look after and ride her horse.

But Central Government has always been afraid to allow the regions to look after themselves and at least Belair gave the other nations in the UK some form of autonomy.

I’m not sure that shows Spain’s lockdown was more effective than ours though - as the number of deaths per thousand population are virtually the same as here. 

Spain’s system is far less centralised than ours in the first place and the whole political set up is based on these regions retaining a degree of autonomy. My guess would be that the system in Spain was far more readily set up for individual regions to manage something like this than the Uk is.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Sorry kg, but that is incorrect.

The Autonomous region authorities had no choice in when to lift restrictions, it was all decided by the Central Government.

I remember watching the head of Madrid's authority on TV a few weeks ago. She was furious that Madrid wasn't being allowed to move on to the next stage of easing of restrictions at that time.

Whoever made the decison doesn't detract from the point that regions are treated autonomously. The UK is based on what happens in London and nothing else and we all have to follow.

And this from a Tory Government.

Edited June 9, 2020 by keelansgrandad

[Aggy 755]

Just now, keelansgrandad said:

Sorry kg, but that is incorrect.

The Autonomous region authorities had no choice in when to lift restrictions, it was all decided by the Central Government.

I remember watching the head of Madrid's authority on TV a few weeks ago. She was furious that Madrid wasn't being allowed to move on to the next stage of easing of restrictions at that time.

Whoever made the decison doesn't detract from the point that regions are treated autonomously. The UK is based on what happens in London and nothing else and we all have to follow.

I’m not sure a pandemic is the best time to try and de-centralise though.
 

The other thing with Spain (and I have to say I don’t really know enough about their political system to get too deeply into this conversation) is that the country is (geographically rather than population) over twice the size of the UK. With more people squashed into a smaller space, I’m not sure it’s necessarily as easy to draw lines and carve up the UK. 

[Barbe bleu 827]

30 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

 

Despite us all being British, the UK is just as regional as Spain. But our Government did not trust the regions to handle the virus and by imposing unilateral decisions, they have missed an opportunity. 

But Central Government has always been afraid to allow the regions to look after themselves and at least Belair gave the other nations in the UK some form of autonomy.

But the South West has been relatively well sheltered from this has it not? Certainly better off this far than Scotland, Wales, N Ireland or indeed the Republic of Ireland.

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

But the South West has been relatively well sheltered from this has it not? Certainly better off this far than Scotland, Wales, N Ireland or indeed the Republic of Ireland.

Obviously the small amount of people, not even half a million, in Cornwall has kept it low in cases, deaths and hospitalisation. I believe the greater percentage of the deaths have been in care homes but we do have an older population than most areas.

But the last two weeks has seen the R rate move from 0.7 to 0.95. The virus has been brought in during the easing of lockdown.

If Cornwall had been allowed to carry on with less restrictions than the rest of Britain, obviously apart from bringing in food etc, and our natural borders had been closed, then I think we could have carried on far more normally and kept the rate of infection to a minimum.

[Aggy 755]

26 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

But the South West has been relatively well sheltered from this has it not? Certainly better off this far than Scotland, Wales, N Ireland or indeed the Republic of Ireland.

Obviously the small amount of people, not even half a million, in Cornwall has kept it low in cases, deaths and hospitalisation. I believe the greater percentage of the deaths have been in care homes but we do have an older population than most areas.

But the last two weeks has seen the R rate move from 0.7 to 0.95. The virus has been brought in during the easing of lockdown.

If Cornwall had been allowed to carry on with less restrictions than the rest of Britain, obviously apart from bringing in food etc, and our natural borders had been closed, then I think we could have carried on far more normally and kept the rate of infection to a minimum.

I can’t prove it one way or the other, but if people aren’t allowed to stay over, I can’t imagine there has been a huge influx of people to Cornwall from much outside of Cornwall - it takes hours to get there from pretty much anywhere! Who does a round trip to Cornwall and back in the same day?

I don’t put much weight in the R number anyway (modelling based on guesswork and frankly if it was spreading like wildfire but not killing people I wouldn’t really be that fussed what the R is - the number of deaths is all I really pay much attention to), but if it has gone up I imagine it is as much to do with people from Cornwall going back outside after not having done so for months.

[Mark .Y. 352]

7 hours ago, keelansgrandad said:

Sorry kg, but that is incorrect.

The Autonomous region authorities had no choice in when to lift restrictions, it was all decided by the Central Government.

I remember watching the head of Madrid's authority on TV a few weeks ago. She was furious that Madrid wasn't being allowed to move on to the next stage of easing of restrictions at that time.

Whoever made the decison doesn't detract from the point that regions are treated autonomously. The UK is based on what happens in London and nothing else and we all have to follow.

And this from a Tory Government.

I think I see your point kg, but you are talking about something outside of the current situation, yes ?

Regarding the pandemic, Sanchez made it clear that the central Government was taking complete control, there was no room for manoeuvre from the autonomous regions, they were under the clear and complete control of Sanchez and his government. 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, Aggy said:

I can’t prove it one way or the other, but if people aren’t allowed to stay over, I can’t imagine there has been a huge influx of people to Cornwall from much outside of Cornwall - it takes hours to get there from pretty much anywhere! Who does a round trip to Cornwall and back in the same day?

I don’t put much weight in the R number anyway (modelling based on guesswork and frankly if it was spreading like wildfire but not killing people I wouldn’t really be that fussed what the R is - the number of deaths is all I really pay much attention to), but if it has gone up I imagine it is as much to do with people from Cornwall going back outside after not having done so for months.

Believe me most of us down here can recognise a holiday maker and there are many of them. I saw half a dozen of them in Tesco's car park.

It is quite easy to get lost down here and many unscrupulous people are letting out apartments.

Bristol to Cornwall overnight is about 2 hours 15 minutes so quite easy there and back in a day and the sun doesn't set until almost 10pm.

[ricardo 7,395]

3 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Believe me most of us down here can recognise a holiday maker and there are many of them. I saw half a dozen of them in Tesco's car park.

It is quite easy to get lost down here and many unscrupulous people are letting out apartments.

Bristol to Cornwall overnight is about 2 hours 15 minutes so quite easy there and back in a day and the sun doesn't set until almost 10pm.

Went in a Supermarket today, first time since mid March. Very few people wearing masks but hardly needed considering the number of customers. I think a lot of those using the delivery service are likely to remain.

[Van wink 2,994]

20 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Went in a Supermarket today, first time since mid March. Very few people wearing masks but hardly needed considering the number of customers. I think a lot of those using the delivery service are likely to remain.

I hope you were wearing the latest mask.

[Aggy 755]

39 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Believe me most of us down here can recognise a holiday maker and there are many of them. I saw half a dozen of them in Tesco's car park.

It is quite easy to get lost down here and many unscrupulous people are letting out apartments.

Bristol to Cornwall overnight is about 2 hours 15 minutes so quite easy there and back in a day and the sun doesn't set until almost 10pm.

So you’d suggest physical roadblocks, checking every car that comes through (essential worker? Non-essential worker? Etc.)? That’s the only way you’d stop that sort of thing I reckon.

On the basis Cornwall is heavily dependent on tourism, I can’t see that building roadblocks to keep people out (even as a temporary measure) is going to be good for the county in the long run. 

[sonyc 5,529]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Went in a Supermarket today, first time since mid March. Very few people wearing masks but hardly needed considering the number of customers. I think a lot of those using the delivery service are likely to remain.

First proper time out Ricardo I think? Must have felt like real freedom. The supermarket must have felt like you were 10 again and in a toy shop!

Pleased you're feeling more confident in getting back to a little bit more of real life. Hopefully now this virus is very rarely present in community settings, especially less dangerous with the distancing and usual precautions.

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

1 hour ago, Aggy said:

So you’d suggest physical roadblocks, checking every car that comes through (essential worker? Non-essential worker? Etc.)? That’s the only way you’d stop that sort of thing I reckon.

On the basis Cornwall is heavily dependent on tourism, I can’t see that building roadblocks to keep people out (even as a temporary measure) is going to be good for the county in the long run. 

Short term pain  for long term gain. Not something that goes down well with the entitled. 

[Aggy 755]

4 minutes ago, wcorkcanary said:

Short term pain  for long term gain. Not something that goes down well with the entitled. 

Who’s that aimed at? 

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

15 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Who’s that aimed at? 

The entitled.   Anyone who thinks that what is generally accepted , for instance lockdown  does not apply  to  them.  Cummins, Gordon Ramsey , Kyle Walker.... these are people that we know the names of but there clearly are more.  

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

Schooling.

Is there anything left that this excuse for a government can still get wrong. Inept and incompetent is just too kind a description for them.

[Aggy 755]

51 minutes ago, wcorkcanary said:

The entitled.   Anyone who thinks that what is generally accepted , for instance lockdown  does not apply  to  them.  Cummins, Gordon Ramsey , Kyle Walker.... these are people that we know the names of but there clearly are more.  

My point was really in relation to the hypothetical situation KG mentioned - if Cornwall had delegated powers to act unilaterally from the rest of the country, then it could shut up its borders and  have fewer restrictions in place than the rest of the country. The main group who would suffer from that are those in the tourist industry - I would have thought huge numbers of people in Cornwall (where apparently according to Wikipedia 1 in 5 jobs is reliant on the tourist trade) would be crying out for some form of tourism over the main summer holiday months - if they don’t get that, it won’t just be short term pain.

 Hypothetical discussion on a hypothetical scenario that isn’t going to happen though, so not particularly fussed about getting into a debate!

I would though query whether the tourists are causing the increase in the R number down there (which was the original trigger for the discussion and KG’s suggestion). I’ll take KG’s word for the number of tourists, but my guess is that the increase is predominantly caused by the Cornish themselves. A month ago, hardly anyone was allowed out other than for food shopping and a jog - that’s no longer the case since the rules were relaxed. Yes there will be day tourists (but probably only from Devon as nobody else has time to get there and back in a day) and there might be a fairly small number of naughty people renting an overnight holiday letting. But the biggest difference isn’t the new tourists who have arrived in the last week or two, it’s the number of Cornish folk who were locked in doors a month ago and aren’t any longer.

I’d presume we’re seeing an increase in the R rate most places in the country for exactly that reason - the locals are all back out.

 

 

Edited June 9, 2020 by Aggy

[Barbe bleu 827]

32 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Schooling.

Is there anything left that this excuse for a government can still get wrong. Inept and incompetent is just too kind a description for them.

Education is massively important and zoom sessions are  really  no substitute as far as I can see.

But if the analysis is that this will result in deaths I guess this is the right call.

[Yellow Fever 3,793]

7 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Education is massively important and zoom sessions are  really  no substitute as far as I can see.

But if the analysis is that this will result in deaths I guess this is the right call.

It's not the call it's telling everybody that primary schools will return this July and then failing to plan or deliver. Hopeless.

[Bill 1,788]

The R rate is pretty meaningless, as it relies upon a combination of guesswork and outdated data.

Unsurprisingly no one has co-ordinted the R rate with subsequent deaths.

The real question is how many more of the populace are there who will catch the virus when exposed, and how many of those will die,

At the moment we seem to be back to the pre lockdown 'herd immunity' which is to get every back to work and hope the infection rate does not swamp the NHS. Death, however callous, are not a great strain of medical resources - those needing treatment are..

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 3,822]

4 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Education is massively important and zoom sessions are  really  no substitute as far as I can see.

But if the analysis is that this will result in deaths I guess this is the right call.

In Italy, state schools have moved lessons online and the language school I work at has moved it's entire timetable online, so I've been teaching online now for nearly three months. I'd agree that it isn't quite as good as face-to-face teaching, but it isn't bad and I'm surprised the UK hasn't at least tried it in some capacity because, as you say, education is very important and the UK have just scrapped it.

[Aggy 755]

7 minutes ago, Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man said:

In Italy, state schools have moved lessons online and the language school I work at has moved it's entire timetable online, so I've been teaching online now for nearly three months. I'd agree that it isn't quite as good as face-to-face teaching, but it isn't bad and I'm surprised the UK hasn't at least tried it in some capacity because, as you say, education is very important and the UK have just scrapped it.

Not sure you can do that at primary school level, or even young secondary school though to be fair. Six year olds aren’t going to sit at a laptop screen listening to a teacher for six hours a day. 

 

[Wacky Waving Inflatable Arm Flailing Tube Man 3,822]

5 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Not sure you can do that at primary school level, or even young secondary school though to be fair. Six year olds aren’t going to sit at a laptop screen listening to a teacher for six hours a day. 

 

Primary schools have done it in Italy, but I'm not sure how many hours they do. 

Something is better than nothing and as I said before, I'm surprised that the UK just completely abandoned education and effectively left kids to their own devices for several months, because let's face it, there's no way the average parent will be teaching their kids maths and science for a few hours a week.

[Aggy 755]

9 minutes ago, Bill said:

The R rate is pretty meaningless, as it relies upon a combination of guesswork and outdated data.

Unsurprisingly no one has co-ordinted the R rate with subsequent deaths.

The real question is how many more of the populace are there who will catch the virus when exposed, and how many of those will die,

 

Yep, agreed. The only thing I really pay much attention to is the number of deaths.

If more people catch it and don’t die, then not really an issue. The issue is ensuring those high risk vulnerable people are properly protected to allow everyone else to get back to work in a safe manner.

[Bill 1,788]

2 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Yep, agreed. The only thing I really pay much attention to is the number of deaths.

If more people catch it and don’t die, then not really an issue. The issue is ensuring those high risk vulnerable people are properly protected to allow everyone else to get back to work in a safe manner.

We know who certain vulnerable groups are old/health condition but we don't know the rest - as seen by the numbers of  supposedly 'non risk' people who have died

So we don't know who would be immune if exposed enough to cause contraction, who would simply be ill and who would die.

So much of social inter action is done outside where the spread is thought to be lower, and it is easier to stay at a safe(r) distance

At the moment we do not seem to have any co-ordinated plan to analyse and assess progress. It seems haphazard at best and chaotic at worse. To put it bluntly - a shambles.

One that has gone on too long. Almost every other country has done better. The time for using the defence that it caught the country unaware is long over. Just as the idiotic bleats on here that pointing out the constant failings is simply down to tribalism.

Fatboy needs to resign.