Corona Virus main thread

[Aggy 755]

1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

I'm sorry but I don't follow you.

You said its up to the PM. He says he is guided by the science.

Its not scientific to work out whether the hospitals are overwhelmed. I don't think deaths really affect the argument anymore.

There is clearly no leadership and plenty of buck passing.

 

What?

Of course “the science” is important to understand whether hospitals will be overwhelmed. If we had solid scientific data to suggest vaccines were useless, then the approach would be very different. 

And of course it’s up to the government - they are the people who literally make the rules. They’ve said they’re following the science to see whether hospitals will be overwhelmed. “The science” = vaccines working, hospitals not being overwhelmed as a result. 

[sonyc 5,518]

Not seen any posts about possible travel for people who are doubly vaccinated?

This is quite a useful summary.

Still time for the NHS vaccine pass and EU versions to be compatible over the next few weeks (but they are not as things stand).

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/explainers-57665765?xtor=ES-211-[45174_PANUK_DIV_26_NCA_NEWS_RET_GHI]-20210701-[bbcnews_whatyouneedtoknowabouteuvaccinepassport_newscoronavirus]

 

[BigFish 1,987]

 

.......although if anyone can teach me how to use tweets properly on this site it would be greatly appreciated

Edited July 1, 2021 by BigFish

[ricardo 7,395]

38 minutes ago, Indy said:

But it’s a shame government and people don’t use the same energy on global warming and it’s effects which we are now seeing!

Could do with some in this neck of the woods, Mrs R put the central heating back on today❄️ its bloody perishing in NR2.

[Indy 3,300]

9 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Could do with some in this neck of the woods, Mrs R put the central heating back on today❄️ its bloody perishing in NR2.

It’s the unusual jet stream this year Ricardo, it’s much farther south than it should be drawing the cold 🥶 air down from the north!

It’s also to be blamed for the real high temperatures in Canada and northwest USA. Might need to get used to it as it’s supposed to be getting much stronger in ferocity!

 

Edited July 1, 2021 by Indy

[ricardo 7,395]

20 minutes ago, BigFish said:

https://twitter.com/i/status/1410527978321334273

.......although if anyone can teach me how to use tweets properly on this site it would be greatly appreciated

Select and copy the address and paste it in like this and will automatically embed.

 

Edited July 1, 2021 by ricardo

[ricardo 7,395]

2 minutes ago, Indy said:

It’s the unusual jet stream this year Ricardo, it’s much farther south than it should be drawing the cold 🥶 air down from the north!

It’s also to be blamed for the real high temperatures in Canada and northwest USA. Might need to get used to it as it’s supposed to be getting much stronger in ferocity!

Its so grey and dull here that we have had to put the lights on. Unbelieveable for July.

[Indy 3,300]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Its so grey and dull here that we have had to put the lights on. Unbelieveable for July.

Indeed, me too! We’ve gone as green as we can in our normal lives, just changed to an all electric car, had a smart meter fitted, using less water, back to using a small glass of water for brushing my teeth, got used to leaving the tap running….etc….. I’m trying as it’s clearly a massive issue, if we all did a small bit it’s amazing how much we can achieve! Now I’m not fully turning into a hippy flip flop wearing ecoist, but trying to be a better person. I even take a bag and clean any waste from the beach while walking my dog.

[ricardo 7,395]

National

27989 -  22

Local

Norwich infection rate up to 63.3

Vax

1st Dose     141,216

2nd Dose     175,749

Hospital Inpatients the last 7 days

30-06-2021	1,795
29-06-2021	1,722
28-06-2021	1,724
27-06-2021	1,589
26-06-2021	1,532
25-06-2021	1,527
24-06-2021	1,507

[Aggy 755]

24 minutes ago, ricardo said:

Its so grey and dull here that we have had to put the lights on. Unbelieveable for July.

Sounds like every summer up here in the north west

[Indy 3,300]

10 minutes ago, ricardo said:

National

27989 -  22

Local

Norwich infection rate up to 63.3

Vax

1st Dose     141,216

2nd Dose     175,749

Hospital Inpatients the last 7 days

30-06-2021	1,795
29-06-2021	1,722
28-06-2021	1,724
27-06-2021	1,589
26-06-2021	1,532
25-06-2021	1,527
24-06-2021	1,507

Do you know if the inpatients is the combined numbers including those outpatients? So the difference or is it just inpatients with Covid? Is there a number of Covid outpatients?

[Yellow Fever 3,784]

3 minutes ago, Indy said:

Do you know if the inpatients is the combined numbers including those outpatients? So the difference or is it just inpatients with Covid? Is there a number of Covid outpatients?

It's admissions not 'outpatients' as in day treatment.

The number with so called long-covid is extremely large as in the press today.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/07/01/almost-400000-have-had-long-covid-symptoms-year/ 

Not much more needs to be said. I guess that's why Johnson is hedging his bets again whatever happens.

[ricardo 7,395]

45 minutes ago, Indy said:

Do you know if the inpatients is the combined numbers including those outpatients? So the difference or is it just inpatients with Covid? Is there a number of Covid outpatients?

There are around 250 admissions per day but around 210 discharges at the moment.  Most appear to only stay one or two days now.

The numbers given are the totals remaining in hospital at the end of each day.

[Upo 91]

5 hours ago, ricardo said:

The virus is doing what all virus's do over time, become progressively more contagious and less deadly. If this wasn't the case the human race would have long ceased to exist.

That is 3(4) out of 4 factually incorrect statements.

The virus unquestionably has become more contagious. But not all viruses do that (hence "3(4)").

Edited July 1, 2021 by Upo

[Upo 91]

5 hours ago, Aggy said:

? What’s that got to do with whether we’re interested in hospitalisations or infections.

If “the science” suggests hospitals won’t be overwhelmed despite high numbers of cases, why would we need restrictions just because of how many cases there are? 
 

 

Viral evolution, breakthrough infections, long covid, large share of population unvaccinated or vaxxed with AZ to name a few. Playing Russian roulette without knowing how many bullets are in chamber is a bad idea, even if the chamber could be empty. Why take the risk?

There is no tradeoff between better ventilation, testing&tracing and mask use in certain situations with economy and functioning society. We'd probably eradicate many flu strains as a bonus.

Literally there is no benefit to laying the society bare against Delta before vaxxing everybody. It is gambling on vaxxes alone holding the fort while letting millions get infected. Atleast vaxx the whole population including children.

The only "benefit" I see is that Brits are subjected to being guinea pigs and others can learn the lessons. If a significantly more resistant variant appears, well, then we're all in it, aren't we?

[Indy 3,300]

6 minutes ago, Upo said:

 

Viral evolution, breakthrough infections, long covid, large share of population unvaccinated or vaxxed with AZ to name a few. Playing Russian roulette without knowing how many bullets are in chamber is a bad idea, even if the chamber could be empty. Why take the risk?

There is no tradeoff between better ventilation, testing&tracing and mask use in certain situations with economy and functioning society. We'd probably eradicate many flu strains as a bonus.

Literally there is no benefit to laying the society bare against Delta before vaxxing everybody. It is gambling on vaxxes alone holding the fort while letting millions get infected. Atleast vaxx the whole population including children.

The only "benefit" I see is that Brits are subjected to being guinea pigs and others can learn the lessons. If a significantly more resistant variant appears, well, then we're all in it, aren't we?

I’d suggest you go into a bunker until this is all over, as you’re pretty panicked by Covid. Having gone through loved ones deaths recently, my younger sister with liver disease who passed both my partner and mum come through cancer, myself through serious illness, I have no fear of Covid, it is what it is, as long as figures show a level of control I’m all for moving forwards not backwards. I know the next generation of vaccines will deal with all variants so as long as we continue to vaccinate on a global scale then there’s nothing to fear as you will die some day! Time to move forwards not backwards, Aggy correctly says the numbers back the process in place.

Edited July 1, 2021 by Indy

[Yellow Fever 3,784]

13 minutes ago, Upo said:

That is 3(4) out of 4 factually incorrect statements.

The virus unquestionably has become more contagious. But not all viruses do that (hence "3(4)").

Delta is actually more dangerous than the earlier 'Kent' variety. Evolutionary pressures do indeed tend to make viruses more contagious and viruses that quickly kill off their host before they can spread also tend to be less successful - but those in the middle - there is far less evolutionary pressure on them to be be 'nice'. Hence the panic over Covid's close cousin SARs (10% mortality was it?). There is little to stop a Covid variant being by chance much much worse (or totally benign) as per a bird flu outbreak i.e. the H1N1  'Spanish' flu.

[Indy 3,300]

6 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Delta is actually more dangerous than the earlier 'Kent' variety. Evolutionary pressures do indeed tend to make viruses more contagious and viruses that quickly kill off their host before they can spread also tend to be less successful - but those in the middle - there is far less evolutionary pressure on them to be be 'nice'. Hence the panic over Covid's close cousin SARs (10% mortality was it?). There is little to stop a Covid variant being by chance much much worse (or totally benign) as per a bird flu outbreak i.e. the H1N1  'Spanish' flu.

It’s funny but the Spanish Flu, wrongfully named as it started in the US, was spread globally thanks to the end of WW1. It spread through US troops, to all nations who then went back home with the virus! First truly global virus.

[BigFish 1,987]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Select and copy the address and paste it in like this and will automatically embed.

 

Thanks @ricardo, that was easy 😀

[Yellow Fever 3,784]

Just now, Indy said:

It’s funny but the Spanish Flu, wrongfully named as it started in the US, was spread globally thanks to the end of WW1. It spread through US troops, to all nations who then went back home with the virus! First truly global virus.

Agreed - its why many had a wry smile at Trump's 'China' virus nonsense.  

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

3 hours ago, Aggy said:

What?

Of course “the science” is important to understand whether hospitals will be overwhelmed. If we had solid scientific data to suggest vaccines were useless, then the approach would be very different. 

And of course it’s up to the government - they are the people who literally make the rules. They’ve said they’re following the science to see whether hospitals will be overwhelmed. “The science” = vaccines working, hospitals not being overwhelmed as a result. 

Of course the vaccines are working. Is there any doubt?

But you are missing my original point. I queried what the PM would do on July19 if the infections were as high as they are now. They were only half that rate when he postponed 21 June opening. He has already set a precedent surely?

As Ricardo has pointed out, the hospitalisations are not relative to the number of new infections as they were before.

No need to be abrupt. Just making a point is all.

[Aggy 755]

1 hour ago, keelansgrandad said:

Of course the vaccines are working. Is there any doubt?

But you are missing my original point. I queried what the PM would do on July19 if the infections were as high as they are now. They were only half that rate when he postponed 21 June opening. He has already set a precedent surely?

As Ricardo has pointed out, the hospitalisations are not relative to the number of new infections as they were before.

No need to be abrupt. Just making a point is all.

I haven’t missed the point at all. The answer is that your question is not the right one to be asking. The focus on infections is flawed.

The question the government rightly keeps saying it is concerned with is whether there is a real risk hospitals will be overwhelmed. If we can sustain 20,000 infections a day without overwhelming hospitals, why would it matter if we have 20k infections on 19 July? If we did spot testing for the common cold in the middle of December we’d have thousands a day - we don’t lock down, because it won’t overwhelm hospitals. 

You’re assuming the previous delay was because of infections alone. It wasn’t. 

Edited July 1, 2021 by Aggy

[Essjayess 307]

8 hours ago, ricardo said:

Here in the UK Covid is well on the way to becoming just another endemic disease like influenza etc, it will never go away entirely and will never be fully erradicated since coverage and effectiveness will never reach 100%. The focus should now be on aiding  unvaccinated countries that largely missed out on the earlier waves. S.America is currently in this position where even many of those partially vaccinated countries have been using the less effective vaccines from China and Russia.

Agreed that vax coverage will never be 100% but if  giving vax priority is to be for nations with high infection rates then ...UK  now has 3rd highest daily  new infection rate in the world, only Brazil and India have higher infections...we are now running at double the  daily infection  rate of the USA and we have 5 times less population...only those 2 nations  named has Delta  been more widespread in a nation than ours and so far no sign of any mass increase in rest of Europe.

[CANARYKING 638]

BJ saying there will still be some restrictions on 19/7, wonder what that will mean re returning to CR ?

[Tetteys Jig 830]

8 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

BJ saying there will still be some restrictions on 19/7, wonder what that will mean re returning to CR ?

appears they are keen on getting full capacity back... if it gets bad in hospitals again then they may use covid certification...

I'd imagine remaining restrictions being things like masks in certain pinch points like public transport and probably other non enforceable token things...

[Yellow Fever 3,784]

18 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

BJ saying there will still be some restrictions on 19/7, wonder what that will mean re returning to CR ?

Just the 18 to 29 year olds who don't get Covid too bad 😉

[Well b back 3,207]

22 hours ago, ricardo said:

Here in the UK Covid is well on the way to becoming just another endemic disease like influenza etc, it will never go away entirely and will never be fully erradicated since coverage and effectiveness will never reach 100%. The focus should now be on aiding  unvaccinated countries that largely missed out on the earlier waves. S.America is currently in this position where even many of those partially vaccinated countries have been using the less effective vaccines from China and Russia.

I understood Sputnik was at least as effective as AstraZeneca. 
 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

13 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

appears they are keen on getting full capacity back... if it gets bad in hospitals again then they may use covid certification...

I'd imagine remaining restrictions being things like masks in certain pinch points like public transport and probably other non enforceable token things...

Wearing masks in public isn't a real hardship in the scheme of things.

[ricardo 7,395]

1 hour ago, Well b back said:

I understood Sputnik was at least as effective as AstraZeneca. 
 

I don't  know which one Chile was using but they had high vax numbers but were still hit hard. Obviously a not very effective vax.

[ricardo 7,395]

25 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Wearing masks in public isn't a real hardship in the scheme of things.

There will be a slow reversion to normal when this thing finally fades away.