Corona Virus main thread

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

1 hour ago, Van wink said:

Could you say that in English please?

I translated it as, Herr Farke is a Double Agent.

[Van wink 2,994]

On 03/05/2021 at 15:15, Van wink said:

Hard to be overly cautious when we have seen how quickly the infection can spread. The point I was making was based on the knowledge that we now have about the virus and vaccines, it would surely be irresponsible in the extreme to plough ahead and disregard that.

The point I made and will repeat is that we now have evidence that to gain the best protection against some of new variants we need the two vaccines, to open up travel and potentially bring in new variants when we have done so much would be foolish. All I am saying is wait till the majority of adults have had both vaccines.

The balance of health v a foreign holiday is heavily weighted towards health, your comment about the Royal Manchester merely emphasises what we are putting at risk by opening up foreign travel for leisure too soon.

worrying.....have been watching the Zoe figures going the wrong way recently, this may explain why

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/new-concerns-indian-covid-variant-clusters-found-across-england-ongoing-risk-high

Edited May 6, 2021 by Van wink

[Well b back 3,222]

2 hours ago, Van wink said:

worrying.....have been watching the Zoe figures going the wrong way recently, this may explain why

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/new-concerns-indian-covid-variant-clusters-found-across-england-ongoing-risk-high

48 clusters apparently, nearly every case can be linked to India travel. 
This was always going to happen as we accepted travel to India and yesterday we had people bragging as to how they avoided quarantine by travelling back via Turkey.

[sonyc 5,529]

14 hours ago, Van wink said:

worrying.....have been watching the Zoe figures going the wrong way recently, this may explain why

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2021/may/06/new-concerns-indian-covid-variant-clusters-found-across-england-ongoing-risk-high

I've been monitoring too. Yesterday, this tweet thread was informative (scroll down once opened):

 

Edited May 7, 2021 by sonyc

[Van wink 2,994]

My worry is the speed things can change.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

Well there was always going to be a resurgence as rules are relaxed. Hopefully the "wall of vaccines" it comes up against is sufficient.

By the looks of things, the new Indian variant won't impact vaccine efficacy, it just might spread a bit quicker.

There's going to be loads more variants every day being made, main thing is that none of them have bypassed the vaccine which still neutralises the virus. There's also no widespread reports of reinfection giving hope to some natural herd immunity holding up.

We're living with this virus for the foreseeable future but let's not lose sight of the initial goal, making sure the NHS doesn't get overwhelmed. Getting to zero is pure fantasy talk while it spreads basically unmitigated in much of the developing world.

In better news, I've got my 2nd Pfizer jab next Tuesday, hope you're all able to crack on and get yours. For all the NPIs and other things, vaccines and treatments are the only sustainable way we are going to beat Covid. Anyone who thinks this country will tolerate further lockdowns post the vaccine rollout needs a reality check.

Masks and guidance will be around for years but there'll be anarchy in the streets if we end up locking down again.

[sonyc 5,529]

1 hour ago, Tetteys Jig said:

Well there was always going to be a resurgence as rules are relaxed. Hopefully the "wall of vaccines" it comes up against is sufficient.

By the looks of things, the new Indian variant won't impact vaccine efficacy, it just might spread a bit quicker.

There's going to be loads more variants every day being made, main thing is that none of them have bypassed the vaccine which still neutralises the virus. There's also no widespread reports of reinfection giving hope to some natural herd immunity holding up.

We're living with this virus for the foreseeable future but let's not lose sight of the initial goal, making sure the NHS doesn't get overwhelmed. Getting to zero is pure fantasy talk while it spreads basically unmitigated in much of the developing world.

In better news, I've got my 2nd Pfizer jab next Tuesday, hope you're all able to crack on and get yours. For all the NPIs and other things, vaccines and treatments are the only sustainable way we are going to beat Covid. Anyone who thinks this country will tolerate further lockdowns post the vaccine rollout needs a reality check.

Masks and guidance will be around for years but there'll be anarchy in the streets if we end up locking down again.

...good news on the 2nd jab TJ and mine is Sunday week. I agree with all you've said btw but as VW stated it is the speed of infection (in reading that thread of the tweet) that is eye-opening. The worry I suppose, not to unduly focus on a worry, is that we are still in the early days comparatively of the vaccines, what they can and cannot do. I would like to see some data on the age ranges of reinfection for sure. To balance this, the emerging story on the 3rd jab in autumn with tweaks for variants is a positive one. 

[Mello Yello 2,296]

Gettin' my first jab on Wednesday.....then the whole World's my oyster.....Before I turn purple, grow another head and coarse hairs appear on the palms of my hands.....and the minuscule microchip in the vaccine, wedges itself in my hearts right ventricle......

Then I'm ready for consumption by the lizards in authority.....

[Well b back 3,222]

1 hour ago, Tetteys Jig said:

Well there was always going to be a resurgence as rules are relaxed. Hopefully the "wall of vaccines" it comes up against is sufficient.

By the looks of things, the new Indian variant won't impact vaccine efficacy, it just might spread a bit quicker.

There's going to be loads more variants every day being made, main thing is that none of them have bypassed the vaccine which still neutralises the virus. There's also no widespread reports of reinfection giving hope to some natural herd immunity holding up.

We're living with this virus for the foreseeable future but let's not lose sight of the initial goal, making sure the NHS doesn't get overwhelmed. Getting to zero is pure fantasy talk while it spreads basically unmitigated in much of the developing world.

In better news, I've got my 2nd Pfizer jab next Tuesday, hope you're all able to crack on and get yours. For all the NPIs and other things, vaccines and treatments are the only sustainable way we are going to beat Covid. Anyone who thinks this country will tolerate further lockdowns post the vaccine rollout needs a reality check.

Masks and guidance will be around for years but there'll be anarchy in the streets if we end up locking down again.

This probably sums up where we are ( taken from a much bigger article re Indian variant ) and one hopes that at least this protection will be present.

In one cluster at a care home, 14 elderly residents who had all been vaccinated, were infected with the variant, the source said. A number needed hospital treatment, but not for severe disease, and it is thought all have now recovered.

All current vaccines are thought to offer some degree of protection against variants but can never completely stop all Covid infections, especially among vulnerable or elderly people.

[Van wink 2,994]

2 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

Well there was always going to be a resurgence as rules are relaxed. Hopefully the "wall of vaccines" it comes up against is sufficient.

By the looks of things, the new Indian variant won't impact vaccine efficacy, it just might spread a bit quicker.

There's going to be loads more variants every day being made, main thing is that none of them have bypassed the vaccine which still neutralises the virus. There's also no widespread reports of reinfection giving hope to some natural herd immunity holding up.

We're living with this virus for the foreseeable future but let's not lose sight of the initial goal, making sure the NHS doesn't get overwhelmed. Getting to zero is pure fantasy talk while it spreads basically unmitigated in much of the developing world.

In better news, I've got my 2nd Pfizer jab next Tuesday, hope you're all able to crack on and get yours. For all the NPIs and other things, vaccines and treatments are the only sustainable way we are going to beat Covid. Anyone who thinks this country will tolerate further lockdowns post the vaccine rollout needs a reality check.

Masks and guidance will be around for years but there'll be anarchy in the streets if we end up locking down again.

Yes agree with that TJ, what does concern me is the level of vaccine efficacy against this variant of concern, I hope ( and logic tells me ) that there will be a residual level of protection, its a similar argument to the one used to justify the extended second dose for Pfizer, immunity doesnt just drop off a cliff, but I am concerned about how strong the protection will be.

[SteveN8458 64]

2 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

......

In better news, I've got my 2nd Pfizer jab next Tuesday, hope you're all able to crack on and get yours. For all the NPIs and other things, vaccines and treatments are the only sustainable way we are going to beat Covid. Anyone who thinks this country will tolerate further lockdowns post the vaccine rollout needs a reality check.

Masks and guidance will be around for years but there'll be anarchy in the streets if we end up locking down again.

Had my Pfizer 2nd jab yesterday 🙂

So far no side effects 🙂

Edited May 7, 2021 by SteveN8458

[Tetteys Jig 830]

28 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Yes agree with that TJ, what does concern me is the level of vaccine efficacy against this variant of concern, I hope ( and logic tells me ) that there will be a residual level of protection, its a similar argument to the one used to justify the extended second dose for Pfizer, immunity doesnt just drop off a cliff, but I am concerned about how strong the protection will be.

to be honest from what we have seen, I don't think there is much concern that this new Indian variant will make the vaccines less effective, much like B.1.1.1.7 that ripped through in Dec/Jan.

The main concern is that it may be even more transmissible which will eccentuate the spread to areas of low compliance with measures and low vaccine uptake. It just speeds up the race to get vaccinated I think. All hands should really be on deck to get this vaccine rolled out as fast as possible given what we know about it stopping transmission as well as stopping infection and illness.

As callous as it sounds, if someone willingly doesn't take the vaccine and then gets sick I have very little sympathy. I actually feel bad for those that can't take the vaccine and the very few it isn't effective for as well as those that want it but don't get it quick enough.

[CANARYKING 639]

With the figures for deaths rapidly decreasing, how many of those dying now are from COVID only or are they the frail, elderly with  serious health issues?

[Aggy 755]

2 hours ago, Well b back said:

This probably sums up where we are ( taken from a much bigger article re Indian variant ) and one hopes that at least this protection will be present.

In one cluster at a care home, 14 elderly residents who had all been vaccinated, were infected with the variant, the source said. A number needed hospital treatment, but not for severe disease, and it is thought all have now recovered.

All current vaccines are thought to offer some degree of protection against variants but can never completely stop all Covid infections, especially among vulnerable or elderly people.

Positive news. We have flu jabs and thousands die anyway remember, so if we can get to a point where what is currently the most dangerous covid variant around is limited to hospitalising a small fraction of the most vulnerable people (with minor illness from which they all recover), then has to be good news.

Edited May 7, 2021 by Aggy

[Van wink 2,994]

3 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Positive news. We have flu jabs and thousands die anyway, so if we can get to a point where what is currently the most dangerous covid variant around is limited to hospitalising a small fraction of the most vulnerable people (with minor illness from which they all recover), then has to be good news.

Agree, we just need to be sure but the info WBB provided is encouraging. I'm not sure there is sufficient data for any conclusive view atm as the level of infection is so low.

Edited May 7, 2021 by Van wink

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

I now get the free NY Times email daily update which is reporting the US feels it has “turned the corner” and they are opening things up again. They are still reporting 700 deaths per day, which allowing for population size would be equivalent to about 140 daily deaths in the uk, similar comparisons on daily infections and hospitalisation, ie significantly higher pro rata than the UK but not out of control. I think their culture is a bit less risk averse than we are.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Under 40s being offered an alternative to AZ as some say the risk of clotting is higher in that age group.

[ricardo 7,395]

National

2490 - 15

Local

Small uptick, low numbers

 

[sonyc 5,529]

5 hours ago, CANARYKING said:

With the figures for deaths rapidly decreasing, how many of those dying now are from COVID only or are they the frail, elderly with  serious health issues?

A good question. I receive a regular ONS email newsletter. I've copied the one from today that might answer some part of your question (excess death data and deaths at home). It's a complex picture as you'll see in this very detailed report. Lots of charts. The ONS is a great source. I have got involved on a few occasions in their ongoing longitudinal studies they carry out. It's decent because you know you're helping understanding on an issue that might feed into public policy ...then also, sometimes, they offer small rewards (£20 tokens for example?).

Needless to say, Covid has been the main factor in the higher than average excess death figures.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsathomeincreasedbyathirdin2020whiledeathsinhospitalsfellexceptforcovid19/2021-05-07

 

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,189]

Green list announced

😀👍

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

9 minutes ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said:

Green list announced

😀👍

 

But they are not sure if people can actually go to some of the countries.

Cannot believe NZ will be welcoming anyone on the basis of a positive test. You could catch it on the plane.

[How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,189]

6 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

But they are not sure if people can actually go to some of the countries.

Cannot believe NZ will be welcoming anyone on the basis of a positive test. You could catch it on the plane.

Correct 

And some of them I don't know how someone from England would get to. As far as I know, the only direct flights from UK to The Faroes are from Edinburgh. And I doubt they're flying 

At least I can get back to Norfolk to see my family 😊

[ricardo 7,395]

National

2047 - 5

Local

 

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

Good to see vac-numbers holding up and infections pretty stable despite opening up again.

 

Zoe app shows 34 active cases inNottingham which is as low as I can remember. 

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

Sage estimates of R-rate, versus ONS stats. Sage very unreliable predictor of actual outcome.

[ricardo 7,395]

National

2357 - 4

Local

Weelend reporting figures.

[ricardo 7,395]

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Whitty still cautious about the India variant. 

[Herman 9,780]

Some good news. We are all catching up on the vaccine front. Keep up the good work and don't forget the poorer nations.

 

[ricardo 7,395]

David Keating reknowned Euro shill, who a couple of months ago, told us it wasn't a competition when then the EU couldn't get its house in order. And before that, how it wasn't about first doses but about the fully vaccinated.

Good to see they've finally got moving.

Edited May 10, 2021 by ricardo