Corona Virus main thread

[Van wink 2,994]

Good news across Europe but a long way to go.

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Brother in Law in Spain given the one dose Janssen vaccine but his wife given two dose AZ.

[ricardo 7,401]

16 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

Brother in Law in Spain given the one dose Janssen vaccine but his wife given two dose AZ.

What age are they doing now in Spain.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

52 minutes ago, ricardo said:

What age are they doing now in Spain.

They are at 50-59 at the moment but I believe they were vaccinating twice after three weeks. I don't know whether they are still using that method.

[ricardo 7,401]

National

2474 - 20

Local

Still hanging about but at a very low level.

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Holidaymakers in Cornwall in droves at the moment but luckily only 7 per 100k. But looking at many of the visitors I have seen, they must have had two jabs. Half term will be a bigger test for us.

[Indy 3,322]

Just now, keelansgrandad said:

Holidaymakers in Cornwall in droves at the moment but luckily only 7 per 100k. But looking at many of the visitors I have seen, they must have had two jabs. Half term will be a bigger test for us.

I think it’s more about their average age! If they all look above 50 then they’re pretty much double vaccinated and pretty safe to assume minimal risk to increased numbers.....😉

[A Load of Squit 5,221]

😀

 

[Indy 3,322]

15 hours ago, A Load of Squit said:

😀

 

Have people not suffered enough! 

[ricardo 7,401]

National

2284 - 11

All the indications are that things are steady at a very low rate. I doubt zero Covid is possible.

Local

[Essjayess 307]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

National

2284 - 11

All the indications are that things are steady at a very low rate. I doubt zero Covid is possible.

Local

Think that is a concrete solid fact backed up by all scientists and governments, Covid is here for always just like influenza.  Looking a bit further afield beyond even national UK level, of note that Covid  new daily cases and deaths are now lower here than in Japan and Thailand,  so goes to show how well we have recovered since the new year.

[It's Character Forming 1,166]

Yes it is so infectious the idea of eliminating it worldwide just seems fantastic, it’s all about getting the vaccine across the globe so it is another disease that’s just kept at a very low level.

[Upo 91]

Reports on B1617.2 escaping immunity suggest level similar to P1. That is good news.

Fatality rate uncertain. That too is good news.

Infectiousness...it is absolutely crushing B117. It's really bad news.

It's probably not a coincidence WHO amended its guidance to emphasize aerosols and mask use; Ditto for haste of declating it a "variant of global concern".

Vaccines hold. If that line gives, we're f*****. But if that doesn't happen in India, it probably won't happen at all.

[Van wink 2,994]

On 30/04/2021 at 12:57, Van wink said:

Wow... Zoe hit lowest level recorded this week 👍

 

Go Compare, there is only one way this is going. We will soon be getting data on effectiveness of vaccines, sooner than we think I suspect!!

Lets hope and pray for good news, I wont be going in any pubs till we know a lot more!

Edited May 13, 2021 by Van wink

[Capt. Pants 4,283]

On 10/05/2021 at 17:43, keelansgrandad said:

Whitty still cautious about the India variant. 

And rightly so. Infection rate in Bolton has doubled in one week.

It could easily get out of hand. Total end to restrictions from 21/6 under threat now.

A long way to go yet.

[Upo 91]

8 hours ago, Upo said:

Reports on B1617.2 escaping immunity suggest level similar to P1. That is good news.

Fatality rate uncertain. That too is good news.

Infectiousness...it is absolutely crushing B117. It's really bad news.

It's probably not a coincidence WHO amended its guidance to emphasize aerosols and mask use; Ditto for haste of declating it a "variant of global concern".

Vaccines hold. If that line gives, we're f*****. But if that doesn't happen in India, it probably won't happen at all.

 

Vaccines are holding up:

 

 

Looks like it's in the kindergartens, schools and families. That means UK could be headed for another lockdown in a month.

 

 

It is more resistant that I thought. It's equal to B1351 (SA variant):

 

 

Efficacy vs B1351 is only 10% for AstraZeneca. WHO's threshold for acceptable vaccine efficacy against sars-cov-2 is 50%. We don't know if it's the same for B1617.2, but so far mRNA vaccines (Pfizer) seem to hold up better (like with B1351).

We are probably headed for yet another lockdown globally. Consider the extreme transmissibility, the measures could the toughest so far. Countries like Japan with minimal vaccinations could be hit particularily badly.

We may even see postponement of Euro 2020 and it's difficult to understand how Tokyo olympics can be held...

[Upo 91]

UK has 27 million people vaccinated with Astrazeneca. We'll see within a couple of weeks how AZ holds up in real life.

Edited May 13, 2021 by Upo

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, Upo said:

UK has 27 million people vaccinated with Astrazeneca. We'll see within a couple of weeks how AZ holds up in real life.

Yep, and until then I would advise everyone to be very, very cautious.

[Barbe bleu 832]

14 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Yep, and until then I would advise everyone to be very, very cautious.

Yes, but the UK data really doesn't show fears to be realised. 

It seems consensus that the variant is established in Bolton but the vaccine effect remain clear, even in Upo's own data, where it shows 90% of infections are in the non vaccinated groups    His full table is below, remember that 45-49s were not offered the jab until mid April so could not have been three post weeks  jab 1 before an infection detected during week ending 7 May set in.

Remember also that there is no evidence that vaccines do not decrease severity of disease caused by variants even if they cannot prevent spread so well.

No need to go all Private Fraser on this from a UK perspective. 

[Upo 91]

19 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Yep, and until then I would advise everyone to be very, very cautious.

I have to note that UK is in excellent position to suppress the virus and I expect comparatively low death figures because of high number of fully vaccinated people. Really exemplary from UK. It's mainland Europe and USA that might be in serious trouble.

[Upo 91]

2 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Remember also that there is no evidence that vaccines do not decrease severity of disease caused by variants even if they cannot prevent spread so well.

True! We also have to remember that even 10% efficacy means lower R0 on population level and can tip the balance on margin.

The problem is that with large number of under 50 year old people not vaccinated or partially vaccinated, ICUs can still get overwhelmed and millions will suffer from post-corona syndrome.

[Van wink 2,994]

17 minutes ago, Barbe bleu said:

Yes, but the UK data really doesn't show fears to be realised. 

It seems consensus that the variant is established in Bolton but the vaccine effect remain clear, even in Upo's own data, where it shows 90% of infections are in the non vaccinated groups    His full table is below, remember that 45-49s were not offered the jab until mid April so could not have been three post weeks  jab 1 before an infection detected during week ending 7 May set in.

Remember also that there is no evidence that vaccines do not decrease severity of disease caused by variants even if they cannot prevent spread so well.

No need to go all Private Fraser on this from a UK perspective. 

I would prefer to wait and get some thorough analysis of data before expressing confidence in the vaccine, particularly AZ, we are still social distancing (allegedly) atm but schools are open which will affect the early data in Bolton.

I think we need to be vary cautious here, put a hold on things till we have more data, the emergence of  a variant of concern was one of the criteria upon which opening up was to be judged as I recall.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

23 minutes ago, Upo said:

True! We also have to remember that even 10% efficacy means lower R0 on population level and can tip the balance on margin.

The problem is that with large number of under 50 year old people not vaccinated or partially vaccinated, ICUs can still get overwhelmed and millions will suffer from post-corona syndrome.

I really wouldn't read too much into that "10% effective" stuff. It was based on a tiny (2k people) study and nobody in either group got a serious case of covid.

Might as well look at the carehome outbreak where 15 people got it and only 4 had a remotely serious bout of it. That was after 1 dose of AZ and was the SA variant.

Time to actually assess what we hope to achieve now that groups 1 to 9 have considerable protection. Our efforts in UK are not going to stop variants appearing worldwide.

I'd suggest shutting schools to non essential secondary kids year groups in Bolton until half term and a kind of ring vaccination strategy to vaccinate as many over 16 essential workers and those most likely to come into contact with people in that area.

Proper surge testing and providing financial support and facility to isolate in that area is essential as well. Time to start getting that stock of vaccines into the younger and more transient population which should hammer down that r number massively.

[ricardo 7,401]

20 minutes ago, Van wink said:

I would prefer to wait and get some thorough analysis of data before expressing confidence in the vaccine, particularly AZ, we are still social distancing (allegedly) atm but schools are open which will affect the early data in Bolton.

I think we need to be vary cautious here, put a hold on things till we have more data, the emergence of  a variant of concern was one of the criteria upon which opening up was to be judged as I recall.

A problem restricted to the vaccine resistant cohorts it seems.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

I wonder if Mondays big opening will be delayed 🤔 wouldn't like to be the one to go on TV to announce that one!

Presume in reality this is more of a June 21st problem now.

[Van wink 2,994]

3 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

I wonder if Mondays big opening will be delayed 🤔 wouldn't like to be the one to go on TV to announce that one!

Presume in reality this is more of a June 21st problem now.

Sadly I suspect that’s a fair assessment. I for one would. rather we made decisions based on the evidence, will be interesting to see what comes out of Sage today.

[Van wink 2,994]

51 minutes ago, ricardo said:

A problem restricted to the vaccine resistant cohorts it seems.

May be. Bit early to say.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

4 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Sadly I suspect that’s a fair assessment. I for one would. rather we made decisions based on the evidence, will be interesting to see what comes out of Sage today.

Well we are coming in from such a low rate at least so it buys us time to get on top of things and get more people vaccinated before things spiral.

Things were levelling off when we eased off to this phase of the roadmap 4 weeks ago and then dropped then even with all the talks of schools causing major spikes and nothing materialised on that front. Same with the first step. Hopefully this step only produces a few small spikes.

It's easy to be over cautious and alarmist when you're not the one that's having to implement restrictions. Time for focus on more holistic and targeted public health measures in my book. It's clear to see where the root of the problems are.

Really wish we'd adopt the Welsh method of vaccinations, they appear to have managed to get into the 30 somethings better than England which seems to have given them incredibly low numbers.

I'd argue that the transmission blocking benefits of vaccination are even more important than the "stopping from getting sick" part in our current situation. I noted previously that Indonesia are going to focus on vaccinating the working age population first to cut down rates rather than directly target hospitalisations/deaths.

There's also the purely anecdotal point to consider what the under 40s would prefer. More restrictions for longer or risk what would in the vast majority of cases be a mild bout of the virus.

You only have to look at the reaction to every story of a footballer getting covid to get a picture of how the virus affects young people.

[CANARYKING 644]

i fear Monday's opening up may be put back. The Sun's front page has BJ saying masks and distancing going in June. can't see that happening either. looks like another lockdown to me, bang goes carrow road as well

[Aggy 766]

2 hours ago, Van wink said:

Sadly I suspect that’s a fair assessment. I for one would. rather we made decisions based on the evidence, will be interesting to see what comes out of Sage today.

What is the evidence?