Corona Virus main thread

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

2 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

I'd argue that the transmission blocking benefits of vaccination are even more important than the "stopping from getting sick" part in our current situation. I noted previously that Indonesia are going to focus on vaccinating the working age population first to cut down rates rather than directly target hospitalisations/deaths.

Totally agree and have thought from the very start of the vaccination campaign in the UK that the priority groups (although very understandable from one point of view) were all wrong, and that deaths and hospitalisations would have come down far, far quicker if the vaccination had been aimed at the working age population (i.e. the  main spreaders) rather than those that were theoretically at most risk but in practice most of whom were effectively shielding anyway.

Think this is another facet  of the focus on hospital admissions which has bedevilled and misdirected so much of the UK response to Covid. Basically throughout last year action to stop the spread was always too little and too late because it only kicked in when hospitals began to be overwhelmed and ironically the reluctance to impose restrictions has meant that we've had to endure more restrictions and for a great deal longer than would have been the case with the implementation of an early strategy to reduce the spread - many scientists, and people generally, were saying this at the time but were ignored in the UK, and quite a few other countries TBF, who should also have known better.

Edited May 13, 2021 by Creative Midfielder

[Aggy 752]

1 hour ago, CANARYKING said:

i fear Monday's opening up may be put back. The Sun's front page has BJ saying masks and distancing going in June. can't see that happening either. looks like another lockdown to me, bang goes carrow road as well

On what basis? Are hospitals about to be overwhelmed? Are deaths high? No chance this government is back tracking from opening up on Monday because there are a few cases of one variant that so far hasnt really affected any of the key numbers in the UK. June 21st unlikely to be changed either unless we suddenly start getting shed loads of deaths or hospitalisations in vaccinated people. 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

Would we not be able to go to area lockdowns again?

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

 

2 hours ago, Tetteys Jig said:

I'd argue that the transmission blocking benefits of vaccination are even more important than the "stopping from getting sick" part in our current situation. I noted previously that Indonesia are going to focus on vaccinating the working age population first to cut down rates rather than directly target hospitalisations/deaths.

I'd argued that last autumn and took a lot of flak for it once we had ascertained the vaccines limited transmission as well as symptoms. 

Nevertheless i suspect this is correct and actually would of been better for all.

I'm now expecting a surge in covid in the unvaccinated under 40s which will no doubt spread back into the oldies. It's almost a perfect way to breed vaccine resistant varieties as well with the applied evolutionary pressure and opportunity given to the virus.

Screeching hand brake turn due in June.

[ricardo 7,345]

5 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

I'd argued that last autumn and took a lot of flak for it once we had ascertained the vaccines limited transmission as well as symptoms. 

Nevertheless i suspect this is correct and actually would of been better for all.

I'm now expecting a surge in covid in the unvaccinated under 40s which will no doubt spread back into the oldies. It's almost a perfect way to breed vaccine resistant varieties as well with the applied evolutionary pressure and opportunity given to the virus.

Screeching hand brake turn due in June.

More chance of Boris being struck by lightning. 

As regards the U.K. the pandemic is over.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

3 minutes ago, ricardo said:

More chance of Boris being struck by lightning. 

As regards the U.K. the pandemic is over.

Thats a pretty sweeping remark Ricardo.

I hope you are right.

I hope its a bit more accurate than "this season is over".😁

 

Edited May 13, 2021 by keelansgrandad

[Aggy 752]

10 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

 

I'd argued that last autumn and took a lot of flak for it once we had ascertained the vaccines limited transmission as well as symptoms. 

Nevertheless i suspect this is correct and actually would of been better for all.

I'm now expecting a surge in covid in the unvaccinated under 40s which will no doubt spread back into the oldies. It's almost a perfect way to breed vaccine resistant varieties as well with the applied evolutionary pressure and opportunity given to the virus.

Screeching hand brake turn due in June.

What currently suggests that when/if it spreads into the “oldies”, that their existing vaccines won’t fight it off?

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

2 minutes ago, ricardo said:

More chance of Boris being struck by lightning. 

As regards the U.K. the pandemic is over.

I'd like to believe it but even listening to 1pm news it seems the 'Indian' variety is now on the march. Rinse and repeat.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

5 minutes ago, Aggy said:

What currently suggests that when/if it spreads into the “oldies”, that their existing vaccines won’t fight it off?

Evolutionary pressure will 'encourage' those mutations that help vaccine resistance (and still with lots of opportunities / victims) to prosper.

It's almost as if somebody is running an unethical medical experiment on evolution on the population at large.

Edited May 13, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Van wink 2,994]

32 minutes ago, Aggy said:

What is the evidence? 

We don’t have the evidence of effectiveness of the vaccine, particularly AZ against the Indian variant. We need to know that before taking further easing measures that will lead to increased infection.

[Aggy 752]

2 minutes ago, Van wink said:

We don’t have the evidence of effectiveness of the vaccine, particularly AZ against the Indian variant. We need to know that before taking further easing measures that will lead to increased infection.

Disagree. We’d never end restrictions if you’re always waiting until we have the positive data. By the time we have that a new variant is along. “We need to know about this one too, give us another six months”.
 

While the deaths and hospitalisations are low (virtually back at pre covid levels), it has to be a case of getting back to as close to normal as possible until we have positive evidence that changes the position. So far the anecdotal evidence we have is of 15 elderly people getting the new variant, all surviving, four being hospitalised. That’s not enough to limit people’s freedoms for longer “just in case”.

Edited May 13, 2021 by Aggy

[Tetteys Jig 830]

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCLancashire/status/1392791805922627593

seems they're letting anyone in those affected areas get vaccinated now. Correct decision! Ring vaccinate this ****ty variant into submission. Just hope it's not too late for too many.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

39 minutes ago, Creative Midfielder said:

Totally agree and have thought from the very start of the vaccination campaign in the UK that the priority groups (although very understandable from one point of view) were all wrong, and that deaths and hospitalisations would have come down far, far quicker if the vaccination had been aimed at the working age population (i.e. the  main spreaders) rather than those that were theoretically at most risk but in practice most of whom were effectively shielding anyway.

Think this is another facet  of the focus on hospital admissions which has bedevilled and misdirected so much of the UK response to Covid. Basically throughout last year action to stop the spread was always too little and too late because it only kicked in when hospitals began to be overwhelmed and ironically the reluctance to impose restrictions has meant that we've had to endure more restrictions and for a great deal longer than would have been the case with the implementation of an early strategy to reduce the spread - many scientists, and people generally, were saying this at the time but were ignored in the UK, and quite a few other countries TBF, who should also have known better.

past jvci groups 1 to 4 I somewhat agree. Really surprised teachers weren't prioritised given kids are months away from getting an approved vaccine.

[Creative Midfielder 1,985]

20 minutes ago, ricardo said:

More chance of Boris being struck by lightning.

We live in hope...........😀

[Aggy 752]

4 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCLancashire/status/1392791805922627593

seems they're letting anyone in those affected areas get vaccinated now. Correct decision! Ring vaccinate this ****ty variant into submission. Just hope it's not too late for too many.

Yep right way of going about it. Is it me or is there no information on deaths and hospitalisations? I can see a few boroughs in Lancs are up at 90.2 infections per 100,000 (and a couple of articles which suggest there is no evidence currently that it increases chance of death or hospitalisation) but can’t see the actual death and hospitalisations figures one way or another.

Edited May 13, 2021 by Aggy

[Upo 91]

Restrictions and vaccinations aren't alternatives. It's vital to push cases down first while immunity is kicking in.

It looks like B1617.2 is ~90% more contagious than B117...absolutely mopping floor with the B117 in India and UK.

Edit. I have to add here that there are 1.3 bn Indians and they do travel a lot. Indian communities are everywhere on Earth. It's safe to assume that anyone who arrives from India having spent any significant amount of time has been exposed to the virus. This is totally different from B117 which spread from UK. There are 20 x more people in India. It's basically everywhere already.

 

Edited May 13, 2021 by Upo

[Van wink 2,994]

42 minutes ago, Aggy said:

Disagree. We’d never end restrictions if you’re always waiting until we have the positive data. By the time we have that a new variant is along. “We need to know about this one too, give us another six months”.
 

While the deaths and hospitalisations are low (virtually back at pre covid levels), it has to be a case of getting back to as close to normal as possible until we have positive evidence that changes the position. So far the anecdotal evidence we have is of 15 elderly people getting the new variant, all surviving, four being hospitalised. That’s not enough to limit people’s freedoms for longer “just in case”.

We will have to agree to differ, for my part we know we have a highly infectious variant but we don’t know about how effective the vaccine is against it, madness to open up and potentially undermine all the good we have done .

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

18 minutes ago, Upo said:

Restrictions and vaccinations aren't alternatives. It's vital to push cases down first while immunity is kicking in.

It looks like B1617.2 is ~90% more contagious than B117...absolutely mopping floor with the B117 in India and UK.

 

Yes Upo.

I see the problem very simply - we can open up once we have achieved what amounts to herd immunity via vaccination and previous exposure.

However, what we have done with the vaccines is to achieve quasi-herd immunity largely in the over 40s - but far far short in our younger cohorts, those who will party and are in effect largely unprotected hence the virus in this group will surely spread rapidly albeit with mild symptoms. However they will now live and mix cheek by jowl with the vaccinated more elderly relatives - giving the virus every chance of finding the key to reinfect the vaccinated.

Its simply statistical chance until one variant succeeds - 1 in a million, 1 in ten million and so on but with billions if not trillions of 'chances'! 

Are you feeling lucky ?

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

6 minutes ago, Van wink said:

We will have to agree to differ, for my part we know we have a highly infectious variant but we don’t know about how effective the vaccine is against it, madness to open up and potentially undermine all the good we have done .

Sadly VW all of this wishful thinking reminds me of at least two or three similar instances last year.

We never learn.

 

[Van wink 2,994]

12 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Sadly VW all of this wishful thinking reminds me of at least two or three similar instances last year.

We never learn.

 

Deja vu keeps coming back to me 😁

[Tetteys Jig 830]

1 hour ago, Aggy said:

Yep right way of going about it. Is it me or is there no information on deaths and hospitalisations? I can see a few boroughs in Lancs are up at 90.2 infections per 100,000 (and a couple of articles which suggest there is no evidence currently that it increases chance of death or hospitalisation) but can’t see the actual death and hospitalisations figures one way or another.

I had a quick look at Bolton on the dashboard. Hosputalisations still flat/decreasing. Sure it can all change but so far doesn't look concerning based on that.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

12 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Deja vu keeps coming back to me 😁

wishful thinking worked out fine for the last 2 steps of reopening though... remember the Brazil variant and the SA one?

[Barbe bleu 814]

1 hour ago, Tetteys Jig said:

https://mobile.twitter.com/BBCLancashire/status/1392791805922627593

seems they're letting anyone in those affected areas get vaccinated now. Correct decision! Ring vaccinate this ****ty variant into submission. Just hope it's not too late for too many.

Absolutely.  I did wonder if this was going to happen.    Means diverting resources from elsewhere but needs must 

[TheGunnShow 5,932]

16 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

I had a quick look at Bolton on the dashboard. Hosputalisations still flat/decreasing. Sure it can all change but so far doesn't look concerning based on that.

Fairly highly localised though (Canary fan living in Bolton here). The Rumworth/Great Lever area is particularly badly hit. There is some suspicion that travel to and from India is playing a part. Also, a bus was going around providing Pfizer vaccines and several centres are up issuing them too. Indeed I got my first one last Friday. Just had to cycle five miles to Horwich to get it.

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

17 minutes ago, Tetteys Jig said:

wishful thinking worked out fine for the last 2 steps of reopening though... remember the Brazil variant and the SA one?

These variants were no more contagious than the native 'Kent' one  - the 'Indian' one is already exponentially growing and thought to be nearly twice that hence will become dominant quickly.

Then we have little real world data on how effective the various vaccines will be against it.

Lastly, and most importantly - we are talking about losing all restrictions in June - the other two variants were of concern but with much of the lockdown and various restrictions fully  in place to stop spread.

VW is correct. Deja vu - we've seen and heard all the inadequate responses and wishful thinking before - local lockdowns, surge testing (already overwhelmed apparently) before.

Edited May 13, 2021 by Yellow Fever

[Tetteys Jig 830]

10 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

These variants were no more contagious than the native 'Kent' one  - the 'Indian' one is already exponentially growing and thought to be nearly twice that hence will become dominant quickly.

Then we have little real world data on how effective the various vaccines will be against it.

Lastly, and most importantly - we are talking about losing all restrictions in June - the other two variants were of concern but with much of the lockdown and various restrictions fully  in place to stop spread.

VW is correct. Deja vu - we've seen and heard all the inadequate responses and wishful thinking before - local lockdowns, surge testing (already overwhelmed apparently) before.

P1 was definitely being talked up as more contagious and SA was supposed to be able to evade vaccinations.

Opening schools 2 months ago was supposed to indicate a torrent of infections that didn't materialise.

Guess we'll see about the June reopening but there'll be an inevitable rise in cases at some point that we just have to deal with unless you're okay with having restrictions forever

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

1 minute ago, Tetteys Jig said:

P1 was definitely being talked up as more contagious and SA was supposed to be able to evade vaccinations.

Opening schools 2 months ago was supposed to indicate a torrent of infections that didn't materialise.

Guess we'll see about the June reopening but there'll be an inevitable rise in cases at some point that we just have to deal with unless you're okay with having restrictions forever

The original point is that we haven't vaccinated the the under 40s. Hence they have little to no immunity. If we had vaccinated this group already I would have few concerns. 

I would wait until we have competed this group before we fully relax else we risk undoing everything we have achieved. We are weighing up a relatively small delay against a huge risk.

[Tetteys Jig 830]

4 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

The original point is that we haven't vaccinated the the under 40s. Hence they have little to no immunity. If we had vaccinated this group already I would have few concerns. 

I would wait until we have competed this group before we fully relax else we risk undoing everything we have achieved. We are weighing up a relatively small delay against a huge risk.

it depends what you're looking to achieve. Hospitalisations and deaths should remain low regardless since these are vaccinated groups and whilst you say "relatively short delay", how long are you intending?

I was very much team lockdown last year and over Christmas since we had vaccines on their way but the equation is different now.

Surely more targeted approaches are more suitable now we have the tools to do this?

Edited May 13, 2021 by Tetteys Jig

[Yellow Fever 3,747]

1 minute ago, Tetteys Jig said:

it depends what you're looking to achieve. Hospitalisations and deaths should remain low regardless since these are vaccinated groups and whilst you say "relatively short delay", how long are you intending?

The risk is encouraging a new variant to develop that destroys any vaccine immunity. Go back to go. If we were really unlucky it could even be more lethal. Of course by chance this could happen anyway but I see no reason to load the dice against us and give the virus free spins as well.

The delay is only until we have vaccinated the 18 plus -  the students out partying etc and in the pubs etc. July ?

[Aggy 752]

7 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

The risk is encouraging a new variant to develop that destroys any vaccine immunity. Go back to go. If we were really unlucky it could even be more lethal. Of course by chance this could happen anyway but I see no reason to load the dice against us and give the virus free spins as well.

The delay is only until we have vaccinated the 18 plus -  the students out partying etc and in the pubs etc. July ?

“It could happen anyway.”

So what stops a variation growing in Spain say, that comes along a week after we’ve all been vaccinated and defeats our vaccines.

Do we extend lockdowns and restrictions again until everyone in the world is vaccinated? Or do we close our borders for ever?  If we don’t do either of those things, then what’s the point of keeping restrictions now based purely on a hypothetical risk that could happen at any point in the future anyway?

Ps are you saying we’ll have all over 18s vaccinated twice by July? Doesn’t look very likely does it?

Edited May 13, 2021 by Aggy