Corona Virus main thread

[The Real Buh 3,432]

1 hour ago, A Load of Squit said:

They're trying to decide which of their mates they are going to give our money to.

You’ve got to admit, it all looks a bit PPEy!

[sonyc 5,519]

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-04/israel-can-t-celebrate-its-vaccine-success-yet?sref=2o0rZsF1&utm_medium=social&utm_content=view&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=url_link&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view

A glimpse into what might happen in the UK ahead? ...applicable to us or should we not make comparisons with quite different countries?

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, A Load of Squit said:

They're trying to decide which of their mates they are going to give our money to.

Doesn’t normally take this long, perhaps the list is getting shorter

[Van wink 2,994]

5 minutes ago, sonyc said:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-02-04/israel-can-t-celebrate-its-vaccine-success-yet?sref=2o0rZsF1&utm_medium=social&utm_content=view&utm_campaign=socialflow-organic&utm_source=url_link&cmpid%3D=socialflow-twitter-view

A glimpse into what might happen in the UK ahead? ...applicable to us or should we not make comparisons with quite different countries?

The virus is spreading significantly within groups in the UK who are not vaccinated and who will not be vaccinated for some time, so if we don’t continue with social distancing etc we will struggle to get the number of community infections right down, I agree with Hunt, we need new infection levels below 1000 a day before we start easing up.

[Herman 9,766]

1 hour ago, A Load of Squit said:

They're trying to decide which of their mates they are going to give our money to.

Conservative donor and peer, Lord Peter Heathrow-Hilton wasn't available for comment. 

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

7 minutes ago, Van wink said:

The virus is spreading significantly within groups in the UK who are not vaccinated and who will not be vaccinated for some time, so if we don’t continue with social distancing etc we will struggle to get the number of community infections right down, I agree with Hunt, we need new infection levels below 1000 a day before we start easing up.

Yes - totally correct.

Until we vaccinate those that are generally out and about (the younger cohorts) it would be foolhardy in the extreme to relax our restrictions . Even those that are fully vaccinated (2 doses) still have it seem a rough 1 in 10 chance of catching it - which I don't regard as good odds on the 15 million or so most vulnerable - (yes that could be another 1.5 mullion already vaccinated cases).

Are you feeling lucky today?   

Cases down to < 1000 and then TT & enforced isolate.

[Van wink 2,994]

2 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes - totally correct.

Until we vaccinate those that are generally out and about (the younger cohorts) it would be foolhardy in the extreme to relax our restrictions . Even those that are fully vaccinated (2 doses) still have it seem a rough 1 in 10 chance of catching it - which I don't regard as good odds on the 15 million or so most vulnerable - (yes that could be another 1.5 mullion already vaccinated cases).

Are you feeling lucky today?   

Cases down to < 1000 and then TT & enforced isolate.

Yeh, get it under control, keep the national T and T system ticking over with  enhanced T and T for people coming into the country, but further resource local DPH so they can properly deal with local outbreaks, a National task force to go in and assist, which is what I thought was going to happen when they changed our  terms and conditions.

Clarity of regulation and rapid firm enforcement, proper financial support for self isolation, the numbers will be far less, and let’s try to keep the lid on it. We are giving ourselves a great opportunity here, it’s not rocket science how to now take advantage of it.

[sonyc 5,519]

9 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes - totally correct.

Until we vaccinate those that are generally out and about (the younger cohorts) it would be foolhardy in the extreme to relax our restrictions . Even those that are fully vaccinated (2 doses) still have it seem a rough 1 in 10 chance of catching it - which I don't regard as good odds on the 15 million or so most vulnerable - (yes that could be another 1.5 mullion already vaccinated cases).

Are you feeling lucky today?   

Cases down to < 1000 and then TT & enforced isolate.

Speaking with sister in law (who travels regularly for check ups at a major London hospital) the consultant who sees her has explained that people would be shocked at the age of lots of Covid patients in hospital (young). Not that there is a death outcome but many go on to experience complications apparently.

A worry I have in the post phase 1 vaccination world is that many will relax behaviours too much and infection levels remain very high.

Yet, as ever, it's a balance with the economy and secondly, on the NHS. Vaccination will bring a new 'phase' of this pandemic to manage.

I also agree with scientists (and people like Hunt) who want infection rates to be at a trickle comparatively. To get on top of it very robustly. Last thing needed is a third major lockdown because we haven't managed it sufficiently.

It's a bit of an unknown though and maybe I'm over-concerned or I'm finding an over-reaction to the positive news on vaccination roll out. I do think it's needs a balance. We can't just think as a nation (or like those EastEnders characters) and say it's "sorted".

 

[Barbe bleu 826]

38 minutes ago, Yellow Fever said:

Yes - totally correct.

Until we vaccinate those that are generally out and about (the younger cohorts) it would be foolhardy in the extreme to relax our restrictions . Even those that are fully vaccinated (2 doses) still have it seem a rough 1 in 10 chance of catching it - which I don't regard as good odds on the 15 million or so most vulnerable - (yes that could be another 1.5 mullion already vaccinated cases).

Are you feeling lucky today?   

Cases down to < 1000 and then TT & enforced isolate.

We hit 1000 confirmed cases only in June last year and that was with testing a fraction of what it is now.   Sure the susceptible population will also be a fraction of what is was then  but the economic and emotional damage of waiting for this level before unlocking in any form could be very considerable.

[Indy 3,300]

Totally agree, get this under control this year, definitely take the hit now do it properly and even if it takes the rest of this year to get to levels where it is under control then we can return to levels of normality.

As for younger patients we’ll obesity is a major issue with Covid, as it also attacks any vulnerability any age might have I’m not surprised there’s younger patients Sonyc.

It’s one of those this that the vaccines he’s to be injected, just imagine if there was a way to give tablet form how quick this could get back to normal.....

[Well b back 3,208]

Some of how we move forward will depend on the vaccine take up. Israel data is seeming to show over 50’s is a huge take up, below 50 is becoming very challenging. 
 

[sonyc 5,519]

19 minutes ago, Indy said:

Totally agree, get this under control this year, definitely take the hit now do it properly and even if it takes the rest of this year to get to levels where it is under control then we can return to levels of normality.

As for younger patients we’ll obesity is a major issue with Covid, as it also attacks any vulnerability any age might have I’m not surprised there’s younger patients Sonyc.

It’s one of those this that the vaccines he’s to be injected, just imagine if there was a way to give tablet form how quick this could get back to normal.....

That is one point I didn't make Indy. Those younger people in London hospitals are predominantly overweight / approaching a definition of obesity.

[Well b back 3,208]

This is very useful on safety and I quote this especially for @Van wink re our Norway discussion. 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-55946912

[Well b back 3,208]

3 minutes ago, sonyc said:

That is one point I didn't make Indy. Those younger people in London hospitals are predominantly overweight / approaching a definition of obesity.

Indeed

 

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

3 hours ago, ricardo said:

This is correct, I had Pfizer and when I enquired about the second dose I was told the NHS would be in touch. My wife had hers last Saturday (AZ) and wasn't  given a second appointment  either. 

So is it possible the 2nd appointment I have booked already, online, could be delayed because of supply problems or is it based on a forward projection with delay possibility added in?

[Rock The Boat 1,332]

14 hours ago, Well b back said:

The nurses are the amazing ones. We have one that works the wards and then vaccinates on two of their three days off. Seeing some of those relieved faces KG is plenty enough reward for all of us.

The ICU nurses are the real heroines and heroes, when you hear their stories you get to realise that they have been living and working through your worst nightmare, often living separated from their families, and with the red tell tale creases down their faces where their masks rub. I hope what they have done is never forgotten, they will need everybodies support at the end of this.

I would like to see the government rent a few hotels in Spain/Greece over the summer and fly out front line medical staff and families for a two week free break. It wouldnt cost that much in the great scheme.of things and would be a bonus for the hard work they've put in. Plus some of the money would go to the airlines which is the same as bailing them out. 

[Well b back 3,208]

19 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

So is it possible the 2nd appointment I have booked already, online, could be delayed because of supply problems or is it based on a forward projection with delay possibility added in?

In theory that is your appointment, in practice it will need the delivery to come in at the time in question. This will be easier ( I am only guessing ) for the hubs than the GPS. However I understand there is about to be loads of Pfizer and Moderna around the world, with Pfizer now able to produce millions of more doses a day, so it seems a lot more likely than a couple of weeks ago.

[ricardo 7,395]

51 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said:

So is it possible the 2nd appointment I have booked already, online, could be delayed because of supply problems or is it based on a forward projection with delay possibility added in?

No idea, but it does seem different areas are operating different systems.

[CANARYKING 638]

1 minute ago, ricardo said:

No idea, but it does seem different areas are operating different systems.

I got my second date on the day of first, eleven weeks time

[Yellow Fever 3,785]

2 hours ago, sonyc said:

Speaking with sister in law (who travels regularly for check ups at a major London hospital) the consultant who sees her has explained that people would be shocked at the age of lots of Covid patients in hospital (young). Not that there is a death outcome but many go on to experience complications apparently.

A worry I have in the post phase 1 vaccination world is that many will relax behaviours too much and infection levels remain very high.

Yet, as ever, it's a balance with the economy and secondly, on the NHS. Vaccination will bring a new 'phase' of this pandemic to manage.

I also agree with scientists (and people like Hunt) who want infection rates to be at a trickle comparatively. To get on top of it very robustly. Last thing needed is a third major lockdown because we haven't managed it sufficiently.

It's a bit of an unknown though and maybe I'm over-concerned or I'm finding an over-reaction to the positive news on vaccination roll out. I do think it's needs a balance. We can't just think as a nation (or like those EastEnders characters) and say it's "sorted".

 

Yes - that returns to an earlier point I made weeks ago  - that something like 1/2 of those in hospital are not in the over 65s etc.

They may generally survive but spend weeks if not months in hospital. Long covid as well.

I do fear much as you say there is tendency to be over optimistic and simplistic as to how soon we can return to normal. The vaccines are not perfect say 90% efficacy but you really need  the prevalence in society to be extremely low as well - certainly in the competence of TT and I to cope no ifs or buts.  

Urgent bucket of cold water needed in some quarters.

[Van wink 2,994]

36 minutes ago, CANARYKING said:

I got my second date on the day of first, eleven weeks time

Same here, only mine is 12 weeks I think

[It's Character Forming 1,161]

16 hours ago, sonyc said:

Neat little chart attached in this link (345k and 600k rates modelled)

https://www.mirror.co.uk/news/politics/uk-back-normal-summer-jabs-23445909?utm_source=linkCopy&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=sharebar

Good one @sonyc and good to see you back posting on the Pinkun !

 

Yes, useful charts, I'm trying not to get too hung up on the timescale now but the good news is that vaccine numbers seem to be keeping on at a good level and hopefully the EU shenanigans isn't going to have any impact.

 

I did notice on the Mirror website yesterday  it had links to 2 articles, one saying "UK back to normal by June" and the other saying "Top virologist says things will never get back to normal" 😀

[Well b back 3,208]

3 minutes ago, It's Character Forming said:

Good one @sonyc and good to see you back posting on the Pinkun !

 

Yes, useful charts, I'm trying not to get too hung up on the timescale now but the good news is that vaccine numbers seem to be keeping on at a good level and hopefully the EU shenanigans isn't going to have any impact.

 

I did notice on the Mirror website yesterday  it had links to 2 articles, one saying "UK back to normal by June" and the other saying "Top virologist says things will never get back to normal" 😀

That’s exactly what I was trying to say a couple of weeks ago, I have no idea why the powers that be started to say all groups over 50’s would be done by the end of March, this was always going to be the way.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

12 minutes ago, Van wink said:

Same here, only mine is 12 weeks I think

Same for me. Seems to be working for most areas. We now have two mass vaccination sites. Nobody has more than 40 minutes travel time one way (unless behind a tractor🚜)

Hows everyone elses availability?

[sonyc 5,519]

Cheers ICF. I intend to be much more of a forum "minimalist" in the future! 

The Mirror picks up really quickly on stories or scientist opinion I find ....and someone there must be a keen chart person because they do love a table and a graph. 

Good that the timetable seems on track and it's just about supply rather than our ability (which appears very very encouraging and shows up the best in people).

In terms of the latter, how nice it must be to be a health worker / nurse and do something really positive like vaccinate folk (and get such great feedback from the public in so doing). It must be restorative as an experience when they have faced such constant pressure.

Edited February 5, 2021 by sonyc

[Aggy 755]

4 hours ago, Van wink said:

The virus is spreading significantly within groups in the UK who are not vaccinated and who will not be vaccinated for some time, so if we don’t continue with social distancing etc we will struggle to get the number of community infections right down, I agree with Hunt, we need new infection levels below 1000 a day before we start easing up.

Infection levels in and of themselves are irrelevant. If community spread is high but the most vulnerable are already vaccinated and hospitalisations stay low as a result then so what? Again getting back to remembering the end game here isn’t stopping anyone ever dying from a natural virus but instead ensuring hospitals aren’t overwhelmed.

 

Edit: and the other thing with focussing on infection levels is that we go back to a position where people lose the incentive to get tested. Fewer tests = fewer recorded positive infections.

Edited February 5, 2021 by Aggy

[Well b back 3,208]

I must say we prefill our card with second appointment date and I thought that date came with your dose delivery ( I am happy to stand corrected ) as we have notices as well for that date everywhere. Checking on the NHS website it also says you will have your card filled in with appointment 2. Will be a nightmare though if any quantity of those appointments have to be changed, so maybe Ricardos location has it right.
 

[Barry Brockes 147]

Using the NHS online system I booked both my vaxes at the same time - Monday and 28th April which I make is a gap of twelve weeks and two days. However, if we receive the level of snow over the weekend that the Met Office are forecasting I'll be struggling to keep my appointment on Monday.

[ricardo 7,395]

6 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I must say we prefill our card with second appointment date and I thought that date came with your dose delivery ( I am happy to stand corrected ) as we have notices as well for that date everywhere. Checking on the NHS website it also says you will have your card filled in with appointment 2. Will be a nightmare though if any quantity of those appointments have to be changed, so maybe Ricardos location has it right.
 

I actually asked about making a second appointment and was told no, the NHS will be in touch. Mrs R had hers at the local surgery a week later and again nothing said about second appointment. I have emailed my doctors in the hope of clarification.

[keelansgrandad 6,679]

2 minutes ago, Barry Brockes said:

Using the NHS online system I booked both my vaxes at the same time - Monday and 28th April which I make is a gap of twelve weeks and two days. However, if we receive the level of snow over the weekend that the Met Office are forecasting I'll be struggling to keep my appointment on Monday.

Definitely one of the advantages of living in Cornwall. Snow is like Rocking Horse siht.