Corona Virus main thread

[Indy 3,300]

7 minutes ago, Barry Brockes said:

Yes, it's just been announced on the 7.00 news that trials are to start using two different vaccines with those two to be trialled in the UK being AZ and Pfizer.

I’m no expert but this makes no sense as a booster as the two vaccines use different ways deliver the response! It’s sounds more like spreading the bets and hoping both have a long term immune response! I’d certainly not sure I’d be happy to mix two different delivery methods! With other vaccines the booster is the same. Maybe those in the know like Tettey Jig could give us their opinions.

[Van wink 2,994]

https://www.edp24.co.uk/news/health/university-east-anglia-norwich-pfizer-vaccine-effectiveness-study-7304250
 

Shout out for the UEA

Paul Hunter been looking at the Pfizer data from Israel, increase in infection rates initially after vaccination but up to 90% immunity after 21 days. 
Emphasises the need to be vigilant and follow the rules after receiving the jab and also indicates at least short term efficacy of 1 jab Pfizer. Theoretical knowledge would suggest that immunity won’t just drop off a cliff after 3 weeks, but we will presumably need UK studies to get a good picture of what happens between 3 and 12 weeks.

[Mark .Y. 352]

6 hours ago, Icecream Snow said:

Interesting slide from yesterdays press conference. As someone in the 40-44 block, I wouldn't be happy pausing the vaccination (as the WHO suggested) once the over 50's are done. Whilst the under-50 load on the NHS is lower, with a drastically reduced chance of death, it's still a massive strain.

I guess the other thing that needs to be factored in is how many 1st dose jabs can be given each day once we get into giving second doses. I'm assuming that unless we can procure more supplies and we have the capability to administer them, the number of 1st doses given will drop off quite sharply..................or have I missed something ?

[Van wink 2,994]

1 minute ago, Mark .Y. said:

I guess the other thing that needs to be factored in is how many 1st dose jabs can be given each day once we get into giving second doses. I'm assuming that unless we can procure more supplies and we have the capability to administer them, the number of 1st doses given will drop off quite sharply..................or have I missed something ?

I suspect the capacity to administer the vaccine to the required numbers is there, supply will probably be the limiting factor?

[SHRIMPER 328]

My eldest daughter came out of the QEH last evening after ten days of covid. To say we are much relieved is an understatement. I have now missed two chemo sessions at the N&N because of very low immune system and I still cannot have vaccine.

[paul moy 235]

11 hours ago, Well b back said:

We finished at 3 yesterday and after 2:45 we had around 20 people turn up asking to be vaccinated with left overs ( there was none ), most claiming their GP had sent them. 

On the other hand we had an anti vaxer telling everyone they were going to die, we soon got rid of him lol.

It's not a case of whether a person thinks it will kill them but what the side-effects are, and weighing up potential costs and benefits to an individual's health. It's not all black and white and is a personal decision and you should respect that.  I have done a lot of my own research into jabs in the past after having what I considered valid suspicions, that I wont put on here as I want people to take the jab, but there are in my view very good reasons to be cautious. 

I repeat... I will definitely be taking this jab because the benefits in this covid crisis in  my view clearly outweigh the potential costs.

Incidentally, I heard today on Radio Five that scientists are now doing tests on mixing of the Pfizer and Oxford jabs and results of the testing on healthy people will be available in June. They believe that mixing of jabs may actually be proven to be more efficatious,

[A Load of Squit 5,162]

Paul thinks he's an influencer. 😀

 

[sonyc 5,517]

8 minutes ago, paul moy said:

It's not a case of whether a person thinks it will kill them but what the side-effects are, and weighing up potential costs and benefits to an individual's health. It's not all black and white and is a personal decision and you should respect that.  I have done a lot of my own research into jabs in the past after having what I considered valid suspicions, that I wont put on here as I want people to take the jab, but there are in my view very good reasons to be cautious. 

I repeat... I will definitely be taking this jab because the benefits in this covid crisis in  my view clearly outweigh the potential costs.

Incidentally, I heard today on Radio Five that scientists are now doing tests on mixing of the Pfizer and Oxford jabs and results of the testing on healthy people will be available in June. They believe that mixing of jabs may actually be proven to be more efficatious,

 

[Well b back 3,203]

11 hours ago, CANARYKING said:

Our local vaccine centre has put out a FB message :

“ the second jab is just a booster, it does NOT have to be the same type, in fact it might be better to mix them “ 

 

News to me !

Hi CK

Slight change, think they worded it wrong, there are going to be trials to see if two different doses work. 

[Well b back 3,203]

2 hours ago, Van wink said:

I believe they are recruiting volunteers for a study, 12 month follow up on volunteers,  if taken out of context  this may be something to do with that.

Indeed

Thats correct.

[Well b back 3,203]

2 hours ago, Barry Brockes said:

Yes, it's just been announced on the 7.00 news that trials are to start using two different vaccines with those two to be trialled in the UK being AZ and Pfizer.

I hope this is an official trial and not government spin. Pfizer is 99.96 effective, per the Israel data. We are told it protects you from serious illness so it can only be to increase the efficacy of the Oxford dose, but they are already doing that with Russia.

 

[sonyc 5,517]

4 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I hope this is an official trial and not government spin. Pfizer is 99.96 effective, per the Israel data. We are told it protects you from serious illness so it can only be to increase the efficacy of the Oxford dose, but they are already doing that with Russia.

 

It is a trial WBB. Lots of debate on it last night emerged.

[Well b back 3,203]

The new updated Jenner Paper is out today in the Lancet, I will get it up once I see it.

Researchers at the University of Oxford have today published in Preprints with The Lancet an analysis of further data from the ongoing trials of the vaccine. In this, they reveal that the vaccine efficacy is higher at longer prime-boost intervals, and that a single dose of the vaccine is 76% effective from 22- to up to 90-days post vaccination.

[Van wink 2,994]

21 minutes ago, sonyc said:

It is a trial WBB. Lots of debate on it last night emerged.

I guess we also want safety  data should in an emergency situation, lack of supplies etc, we could use a different vaccine  for the second dose. Good to see you back btw👍

[Herman 9,764]

Judging the latest it seems that lockdowns do work. Who'd have thunk it? 😉

[Van wink 2,994]

40 minutes ago, Well b back said:

I hope this is an official trial and not government spin. Pfizer is 99.96 effective, per the Israel data. We are told it protects you from serious illness so it can only be to increase the efficacy of the Oxford dose, but they are already doing that with Russia.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/04/oxford-trial-to-test-efficacy-of-mix-of-covid-vaccines-for-individuals

A useful study particularly when you consider potential global supply and distribution problems.

Edited February 4, 2021 by Van wink

[Well b back 3,203]

Just now, Van wink said:

https://www.theguardian.com/society/2021/feb/04/oxford-trial-to-test-efficacy-of-mix-of-covid-vaccines-for-individuals

I appreciate that VW but there are no comments anywhere from Pfizer or Jenner and Jenner are already in trials. I would feel much more comfortable if Jenner and Pfizer commented. The way I worded the initial point was probably not the right wording. 

[It's Character Forming 1,160]

Interview with Zahawi on BBC breakfast this morning.  He was confident they'll hit the target of the first 4 groups by Feb 15th.  He said the plan is then to continue the next 5 groups until the 9 at risk groups have been done (which completes phase 1 of the vaccine roll out and will mean about 30m people have been vaccinated he said), the Vaccine committee will be asked to decide who gets the vaccine from then onwards, so no plan to change anything until phase 1 has completed.

 

He said on timescale to complete phase 1, this will be published after getting through the first 4 groups.  The interviewer was trying to get him to agree to dates based on how many vaccines are currently being given (a sort of back of a fag packet calculate during a live interview), which I thought was really unhelpful when he'd already said it is too early to do this.  He pointed out the supply may be variable and when we get to March more 2nd doses will be needed as well.  He would not be drawn on how this will affect the number of first doses that can be given, so it is not clear whether we're looking at higher numbers by then so we can continue with a lot of first doses or what.  Yes I'd love to know how long the process is likely to take, but I felt this was more about trying to get him to commit to something so the media can then focus remorselessly on it from now on - lazy journalism and unhelpful IMO.

 

However, thinking about it, vaccine numbers only really started to ramp up in mid-Jan when we hit 300k+ doses for the first time.  Tracking on 12 weeks from then takes you to early April, so really it should be around the end of March before the number of second doses really takes off.  So it seems to me realistic to be aiming for around 30m people vaccinated by the end of March, based on current supply levels continuing.

[benchwarmer 625]

In terms of % it looks as though UK is doing far better than EU getting the vaccine out

But look at the actual numbers.  As of yesterday UK had vaccinated approx 10.5m, EU approx 14.3m.

The vaccine manufacturers can't turn it out any faster, and the EU's population is approx 446m compared to UK approx 67.7m.  That's why the % is misleading.  

Lies, damned lies and statistics, courtesy of once trusted media outlets like the BBC.

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by benchwarmer

[paul moy 235]

North Korea orders AstraZeneca vaccine 🤗   :

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1393279/north-korea-news-vaccine-news-astrazeneca-oxford-eu-covid19-kim-jong-un

[A Load of Squit 5,162]

6 minutes ago, benchwarmer said:

In terms of % it looks as though UK is doing far better than EU getting the vaccine out

But look at the actual numbers.  As of yesterday UK had vaccinated approx 10.5m, EU approx 14.3m.

The vaccine manufacturers can't turn it out any faster, and the EU's population is approx 446m compared to UK approx 67.7m.  That's why the % is misleading.  

Lies, damned lies and statistics, courtesy of once trusted media outlets like the BBC.

 

Whilst recording these figures are important we should really be looking on a global scale.

Once people can safely visit and return from other countries we'll know that we're getting back to normal.

Imagine being able to book a holiday or visit your betrothed in Gambia, for some that's the end game.

[paul moy 235]

13 hours ago, CANARYKING said:

Our local vaccine centre has put out a FB message :

“ the second jab is just a booster, it does NOT have to be the same type, in fact it might be better to mix them “ 

 

News to me !

Indeed, that is not good advice until the trials can confirm it.   Trials start today of Pfizer/ Astra mixture but an expert said today on Five Live  that each combination will necessitate a separate trial.   Commonsense really.

NB:  Vaccine mixing already exists with the Ebola vaccines

[paul moy 235]

17 hours ago, Well b back said:

The Lancet paper was issued recently, safe and 94%  effective. 

Must be based on Russian data, just as the Chinese vaccine is.  😂

Enough said !!!

 

[paul moy 235]

4 hours ago, Indy said:

I’m no expert but this makes no sense as a booster as the two vaccines use different ways deliver the response! It’s sounds more like spreading the bets and hoping both have a long term immune response! I’d certainly not sure I’d be happy to mix two different delivery methods! With other vaccines the booster is the same. Maybe those in the know like Tettey Jig could give us their opinions.

They already do it with the Ebola vaccines...

[Barbe bleu 826]

13 minutes ago, benchwarmer said:

In terms of % it looks as though UK is doing far better than EU getting the vaccine out

But look at the actual numbers.  As of yesterday UK had vaccinated approx 10.5m, EU approx 14.3m.

The vaccine manufacturers can't turn it out any faster, and the EU's population is approx 446m compared to UK approx 67.7m.  That's why the % is misleading.  

Lies, damned lies and statistics, courtesy of once trusted media outlets like the BBC.

 

You are assuming that supply is the limiting factor throughout the EU.  You are probably correct but do we know for sure?

In fact i dont think most of the commissions critics on this will dispute the basic premise that if you haven't got it you cant use it.  What they will say though is that if contracts were signed earlier AZ and Pfizer would both have been able to invest in production earlier and the issues ironed out earlier.  They might also say that by relying on Pfizer with its known logistics issues slow roll out was inevitable.

Critics might also say that the second dose arrangements, speed of approval and restriction of Az to under 55s might not prove to be be helpful.

I think it fair to say that putting all the blame on manufacturing is as misleading as you say the statistics are,  especially as Europe has more than ample manufacturing capacity 

[A Load of Squit 5,162]

20 minutes ago, paul moy said:

North Korea orders AstraZeneca vaccine 🤗   :

 

https://www.express.co.uk/news/world/1393279/north-korea-news-vaccine-news-astrazeneca-oxford-eu-covid19-kim-jong-un

Even N Korea hasn't committed to giving the vaccine to the over 55's. 😀

[Barbe bleu 826]

4 hours ago, Indy said:

I’m no expert but this makes no sense as a booster as the two vaccines use different ways deliver the response! It’s sounds more like spreading the bets and hoping both have a long term immune response! I’d certainly not sure I’d be happy to mix two different delivery methods! With other vaccines the booster is the same. Maybe those in the know like Tettey Jig could give us their opinions.

My instinct is to think the opposite. 

The delivery method is incidental.  Both vaccines do basically the same thing, they make the body cells produce viral components that are then presented to the immune cells who then learn how to combat them.  If the components are the same the boost will still be given so why should it matter if there is a mix?

In fact a mix might be beneficial if it compensates for the limitations of either (price and ease of use of Pfizer, immune response to the AZ virus vector).

Obviously you need to trial these things but this sounds really sensible.

[BroadstairsR 2,164]

1 hour ago, benchwarmer said:

In terms of % it looks as though UK is doing far better than EU getting the vaccine out

But look at the actual numbers.  As of yesterday UK had vaccinated approx 10.5m, EU approx 14.3m.

The vaccine manufacturers can't turn it out any faster, and the EU's population is approx 446m compared to UK approx 67.7m.  That's why the % is misleading.  

Lies, damned lies and statistics, courtesy of once trusted media outlets like the BBC.

 

We need keep an eye on the situation in France, not least because it is our nearest neighbour.

Macron, no doubt with an eye on the latest poll results and aware of his countrymen's propensity for civil disobedience has now resisted the need to impose a full lockdown in the country. The French have so far been notoriously poor at obeying the stringencies of a lockdown, with many cafes in Paris openly disregarding the rules and carrying on as normal. Macron has responded by simply promising to adopt a more rigorous policy towards transgression of the rules and, in particular, of the curfew.

The problem is that, whilst they drop in the UK, cases are on the rise in France. There were 26, 000 positive tests in the country yesterday. We had under twenty thousand.

Lorry drivers and other essentials pass between the two countries on a daily basis and, although there is a strict testing regime in force, it will not be perfect. 

I see the situation as potentially volatile, especially if something similar to the so-call Kent variant were to suddenly appear in a country that can be seen regularly from our shores on a clear day.

In addition, their vaccine roll-out has been tardy and that in a country with the highest number of vaccine sceptics on the Continent. 

Perhaps Macron could do with paying less attention to his Anglo-phobic tendencies  ( a trait peculiar to French politicians, but not necessarily the French in general) and his distaste for Brexit and start addressing the problems on his own doorstep with a greater degree of maturity.

His compromised actions might well result in more blood of his fellow Frenchmen being on his hands. We do not want them to cause more English deaths.

In general, we should want the vaccine roll-out in Europe to proceed as quickly and effectively as possible rather than gloat about it's ragged start. It is our own interests that everybody worldwide is protected as much as is possible. It need be our moral concern as well.

Edited February 4, 2021 by BroadstairsR

[paul moy 235]

1 hour ago, Herman said:

Judging the latest it seems that lockdowns do work. Who'd have thunk it? 😉

Now go back and check who was convinced that lockdowns don't work .... remourners methinks !!   maybe you were an exception..😂

[paul moy 235]

20 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said:

Even N Korea hasn't committed to giving the vaccine to the over 55's. 😀

Even they don't appear to trust the Russian or Chinese jabs, unlike Hungary etc in the EU who do , but don't trust ours ......😂