Barbe bleu 826 Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) 3 hours ago, sonyc said: Agree VW. Herd immunity will take years won't it given latest research indications. (5.2% I recall in a major Spanish study). Whatever report you read though it is getting clearer that C19 continues to confound and surprise the scientific community. So, agree about the learning point made in an earlier post. I'm far more hopeful than you. I suspect that in the most susceptible areas of Britain the non susceptable /immune population will be far higher than 5.2% and in the less susceptible areas you are far less likely to have an effective contact anyway. And whilst it's true that no coronavirus vaccines exist that might just be be because there never been an incentive to bother with one. Its not over, not by a long way but we are better placed now. Much better placed. Edited July 9, 2020 by Barbe bleu Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,518 Posted July 9, 2020 2 minutes ago, Aggy said: No issues Sonyc. I haven’t posted much on this thread recently as i don’t really see the point. As I’ve said a couple of times now, people need to get used to what it is. We’re not going to go into mass nationwide lockdown again unless things get extremely bad - some on here almost seem to want full strict lockdown to last In perpetuity. The Spanish fu went on for c3 years but killed up to 50million. We’ve had 500k worldwide deaths in over half a year and many places which had it early are now on top of it or are going in the right direction. Comparisons to the Spanish Flu don’t help anyone - it’s scaremongering and panic inducing when the reality is this is nowhere near as bad. Some context needs to be considered and the panic and overreaction needs to be tempered. There will continue to be risk to some, but there will be a return to something like normality for most (for whom there is very little risk - see percentages I posted yesterday). The weekly deaths nationwide are now back below the five year average. Plenty on here posted loads about “the young” having to just accept lockdown and get on with it, comparing this little “sacrifice” to much bigger sacrifices made by people in the past. But now the wider population needs to get that same “get on with it” attitude. Is it going to go away overnight? No. Are we going to have to get used to living with it? Yes. The death rates are manageable and low now (as above, the last few weeks have been below 5 yearly average weekly deaths for the same weeks). Constantly analysing 50 new infections on the other side of the world and trying to suggest it’s something worse than it is doesn’t help anyone. Cheers Aggy. I agree about no more mass lockdowns, completely. Perhaps if we had known enough early in we may not have needed to do that either. It's going to be decades I read before the debt is paid. Lots of pain to come for lots of people. I didn't know that the Spanish flu lasted 3 years or killed 50m! (I could have researched but was lazy this time).Times are different though and our infrastructure is so different to a century ago. Perspective is the operative word. My post was just me letting some feelings go outwards rather than introjecting them, which is not healthy to do. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted July 9, 2020 30 minutes ago, Aggy said: That’s because the “initial wave” in Australia was contained to the point it was virtually non existent. In Melbourne the most number of new daily cases in this ‘second wave’ is still under 200 new infections (not deaths but infections) daily. Let’s not try and suggest Melbourne is some sort of example of it going away and coming back stronger. It’s merely a case of an isolated outbreak which had previously been pretty much avoided in Australia and has now flared up. Nothing more nothing less. Yep that’s why I said I would treat it with some scepticism at the moment, more information required for my part. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jools 584 Posted July 9, 2020 (edited) On 09/07/2020 at 16:25, ricardo said: Anyone who has it can spread it. Ethnicity only seems to be a factor in susceptability, possibly vitamin D related, but that is only speculation. It's not speculation, Ricardo, all the data available indicates a lack of vitamin D in black, Asian and minority ethnic communities. https://www.bmj.com/content/369/bmj.m1548/rr-6 But of course, lack of vitamin D is merely one of the reasons why BAME are more susceptible to the virus. Edited July 10, 2020 by Jools Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
TeemuVanBasten 3,327 Posted July 10, 2020 On 09/07/2020 at 21:37, Aggy said: That’s because the “initial wave” in Australia was contained to the point it was virtually non existent. In Melbourne the most number of new daily cases in this ‘second wave’ is still under 200 new infections (not deaths but infections) daily. Let’s not try and suggest Melbourne is some sort of example of it going away and coming back stronger. It’s merely a case of an isolated outbreak which had previously been pretty much avoided in Australia and has now flared up. Nothing more nothing less. Look at Israel if you want to see a good example of a second wave. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Aggy 755 Posted July 10, 2020 (edited) 57 minutes ago, TeemuVanBasten said: Look at Israel if you want to see a good example of a second wave. According to the first link below, Israel was testing 6,000 a day in April. According to the second, they tested over 25,500 the Tuesday just gone. https://www.i24news.tv/en/news/coronavirus/1588077105-israel-raises-diagnosing-capacity-to-15-000-coronavirus-tests-per-day I”ve actually lost the article I was going to post first, but here’s another which says on 28 April they tested 9,000. They were looking to increase/ had just announced an increase in capacity (not actual tests done) to 15,000 per day - showing steady increase in testing (the 6,000 I saw was early April which makes sense). Second article referred to above confirming over 25,500 tests done on Tuesday just gone: https://www.ynetnews.com/article/Sy3Xu1QJD I can’t vouch for the accuracy of these as I don’t know anything about Israeli news outlets. But the death rate doesn’t show much change either despite the new infections picking up in late May (jumped to six deaths a day earlier this week but then instantly dropped back to 4 and then 2 - which is going the opposite way to the increase in infections). So testing increasing fourfold (threefold if we say 9000), increased number of infections, but deaths staying the same. That to me sounds far more to do with the testing increase and increased collation of data than a second wave. Edited July 10, 2020 by Aggy Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Jools 584 Posted July 11, 2020 On 07/07/2020 at 08:57, sonyc said: Following up on the Lancet link (replying to Jools... Coronavirus: Spanish study casts doubt on herd immunity feasibility - BBC News https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-53315983 Japan have had no Lockdowns or mass testing... Coronavirus Cases: 20,719 Deaths: 982 Looks like the Spaniards should've included Japan in their study, sonyc 🙃 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
A Load of Squit 5,162 Posted July 11, 2020 8 minutes ago, Jools said: Japan have had no Lockdowns or mass testing... Coronavirus Cases: 20,719 Deaths: 982 Looks like the Spaniards should've included Japan in their study, sonyc 🙃 Japans Covid19 details are cultural, also thier Prime Minister wasn't on holiday at the beginning, they re-acted quicker and in a more decisive way.Slowing the outbreak’s growth helped Mr Abe to declare a state of emergency at the right moment, when the number of cases was still manageable. “If the decision had been made a week later then the number of cases would have exploded,” said Prof Shibuya, comparing the timing of Japan’s declaration with lockdowns in Italy and the UK. The state of emergency did not force people to stay at home but many respected the plea. “Japan’s mild lockdown seems to have had a real lockdown effect,” he said. Other countries might not have had the same level of compliance with a voluntary request, said Prof Hori. Prof Shibuya said Japan’s approach was not perfect and other Asian countries had done better. He said more testing was vital. “Because they lacked the tests, they couldn’t prevent exponential growth in Tokyo and the big cities,” he said. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Surfer 1,547 Posted July 11, 2020 And Asian countries have a cultural bias to "individual sacrifice to protect society" which specifically for Covid impact means almost everyone is wearing a mask. The Hong Kong health officer made this very point when asked about almost no deaths there. Taiwan government handed out masks to every person in the country. So competent governments can do this, IF they want to do it. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
A Load of Squit 5,162 Posted July 11, 2020 16 minutes ago, Surfer said: And Asian countries have a cultural bias to "individual sacrifice to protect society" which specifically for Covid impact means almost everyone is wearing a mask. The Hong Kong health officer made this very point when asked about almost no deaths there. Taiwan government handed out masks to every person in the country. So competent governments can do this, IF they want to do it. Dozens of US marines have been infected with coronavirus at two bases on the southern Japanese island of Okinawa in what is feared to be a significant outbreak. Okinawa prefectural officials said they could say only a few dozen cases had been found recently because the US military asked that the exact figure not be released. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Surfer 1,547 Posted July 11, 2020 Yes, the "almost everyone" comment was reflected on also by the Hong Kong health officer : "except European and US visitors." Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Barbe bleu 826 Posted July 11, 2020 38 minutes ago, A Load of Squit said: Japans Covid19 details are cultural, also thier Prime Minister wasn't on holiday at the beginning, they re-acted quicker and in a more decisive way.Slowing the outbreak’s growth helped Mr Abe to declare a state of emergency at the right moment, when the number of cases was still manageable. “If the decision had been made a week later then the number of cases would have exploded,” said Prof Shibuya, comparing the timing of Japan’s declaration with lockdowns in Italy and the UK. The state of emergency did not force people to stay at home but many respected the plea. “Japan’s mild lockdown seems to have had a real lockdown effect,” he said. Other countries might not have had the same level of compliance with a voluntary request, said Prof Hori. Prof Shibuya said Japan’s approach was not perfect and other Asian countries had done better. He said more testing was vital. “Because they lacked the tests, they couldn’t prevent exponential growth in Tokyo and the big cities,” he said. Asking people nicely doesn't sound very decisive. I suspect that government action does not explain Japan's experience as well as cultural factors or something intrinsic (diet, genetics etc) in the population Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Surfer 1,547 Posted July 11, 2020 And "competence" devolves down to State governments when the Federal government is weak or incompetent, or in the US case even malevolent. There is a very clear political correlation to this graph.... and even in California there is a very political fight over what measure are appropriate, and yes guess which party's leaders are leading the resistance to wearing masks. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,518 Posted July 11, 2020 1 hour ago, Jools said: Japan have had no Lockdowns or mass testing... Coronavirus Cases: 20,719 Deaths: 982 Looks like the Spaniards should've included Japan in their study, sonyc 🙃 Perhaps a view reported from a more favoured publication might interest you then ... Coronavirus: Chinese expert says 'herd immunity' impossible | Daily Mail Online https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8487375/Chinese-expert-says-completely-impossible-tackle-COVID-19-herd-immunity.html Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Van wink 2,994 Posted July 12, 2020 Is it Bill or is it Ben? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 9,765 Posted July 12, 2020 Why the sudden change from Johnson and Trump on wearing facemasks? That horse bolted a long time ago. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted July 12, 2020 2 hours ago, Herman said: Why the sudden change from Johnson and Trump on wearing facemasks? That horse bolted a long time ago. Trump was visiting a hospital, Johnson will do anything for a photo op Gove has said it is up to individuals or businesses themselves - as cuts to the police means it cannot be enforced. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
keelansgrandad 6,679 Posted July 12, 2020 Supermarkets jumping the gun. Our local Tesco has no-one at the door counting you in and out but still has gel inside the door. And no having to follow arrows up each aisle. Aldi has abandoned the check in and taken away the gel. Wilko has doubled how many can be in the store at anyone time and no-one is on the door. Boots pharmacy still following one in at a time thank goodness (but still managing to lose my repeat prescription for the third month out of four) but still giving everyone the same pen to sign the forms. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted July 12, 2020 2 minutes ago, keelansgrandad said: Supermarkets jumping the gun. Our local Tesco has no-one at the door counting you in and out but still has gel inside the door. And no having to follow arrows up each aisle. Aldi has abandoned the check in and taken away the gel. Wilko has doubled how many can be in the store at anyone time and no-one is on the door. Boots pharmacy still following one in at a time thank goodness (but still managing to lose my repeat prescription for the third month out of four) but still giving everyone the same pen to sign the forms. That has been my point, Inconsistency over information, and required action But, bleat the sheep ...... a bit of coloured cloth will ward of 'all ye plagues and ye foul nastiness' Your comment suggests that the shops are able to do this as there is no demand/expectation from customers - which further suggests they are not practising any real safe distancing or strict hygiene habits in this regard Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
keelansgrandad 6,679 Posted July 12, 2020 3 hours ago, Bill said: That has been my point, Inconsistency over information, and required action But, bleat the sheep ...... a bit of coloured cloth will ward of 'all ye plagues and ye foul nastiness' Your comment suggests that the shops are able to do this as there is no demand/expectation from customers - which further suggests they are not practising any real safe distancing or strict hygiene habits in this regard None apart from odd individuals. At least when you followed a route you were all facing away from each other. Now people are feeling loose fruit and vegetables and putting them back. Trouble is all the fruit and veg at the greengrocers is loose so cannot be trusted. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted July 12, 2020 (edited) And there has to be questions about what preventative measures were in place and, more importantly, followed https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/herefordshire-farm-coronavirus-outbreak-quarantine-as-green-co-a9614786.html Edited July 12, 2020 by Bill 1 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,518 Posted July 12, 2020 Immunity to Covid-19 could be lost in months, UK study suggests https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/jul/12/immunity-to-covid-19-could-be-lost-in-months-uk-study-suggests? A couple of recent reports coming out about reinfection, putting even more doubt on the idea of natural immunity. Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted July 12, 2020 It's all about the economy now If infections rise then there is enough capacity to cope those for a bit senile brexiteers and 'oop north' brexiteer are no longer needed and as there will be plenty of newly unemployed 'gammon fodder' then full tilt ahead get those tills ringing, and those factories clanking Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
How I Wrote Elastic Man 1,187 Posted July 12, 2020 This doesn't look good I hope this doesn't turn out to be right but if it does, it doesn't look good for the herd immunity theory It makes me think - if the common cold and flu can re-infect many times, why not covid-19? Hopefully a working vaccine will be developed, even if people need 3 shots a year, or something similar. Or covid-19 loses its potency and becomes nothing more dangerous than a cold 🤞 Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted July 12, 2020 The herd immunity stuff was promoted here by Cummings and his idiotic calculations. The same numpty 'science' that has the not too bright believing that you can determine the potential of a football player by counting the distance he runs and the direction of the passes he makes etc It was this crackpot stuff that caused the UK to delay closing down, and so suffering one of the worst virus death tolls in the world History has shown us where things can be taken when people are simply reduced to numbers Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Surfer 1,547 Posted July 13, 2020 Cummings again eh? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
keelansgrandad 6,679 Posted July 13, 2020 (edited) 13 hours ago, How I Wrote Elastic Man said: This doesn't look good I hope this doesn't turn out to be right but if it does, it doesn't look good for the herd immunity theory It makes me think - if the common cold and flu can re-infect many times, why not covid-19? Hopefully a working vaccine will be developed, even if people need 3 shots a year, or something similar. Or covid-19 loses its potency and becomes nothing more dangerous than a cold 🤞 I'm afraid there have been so many mixed messages, wrong calls and even lack of attention to detail that I will not believe anything is set in stone until it eventually happens. Antibodies, immunities and vaccines are so far unknown to be valid that I find myself thinking that we just have to wait it out with as much attention to personal hygiene and care as we think appropriate. Frankly, some people are just doing what they want anyway. Edited July 13, 2020 by keelansgrandad Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Herman 9,765 Posted July 13, 2020 Johnson: masks should be worn. Gove: masks are not necessary. Johnson: masks should be worn. Which is it you useless pair of ***? Who voted for these clowns? Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
sonyc 5,518 Posted July 13, 2020 17 minutes ago, Herman said: Johnson: masks should be worn. Gove: masks are not necessary. Johnson: masks should be worn. Which is it you useless pair of ***? Who voted for these clowns? We might find out in a "few days" apparently. By which time..... Share this post Link to post Share on other sites
Bill 1,788 Posted July 13, 2020 More silly nonsense If shops, then why not pubs and restaurants ? "Data collected by Tube staff shows that an average of 700 to 800 passengers a day travel without face coverings. However, there are fears staff only record a proportion of passengers without masks, with one Tube worker saying there are so many that staff have lost interest in recording all they see." 10th July Telling people to put a bit of ill fitting cloth over their faces is about as much use as carrying a pose of flowers near your nose to avoid the plague. Anyone who has been in a shop will know folk are free to pick up and put stuff down, there is no distancing or requirement to wash your hands. Even trolleys and baskets are no longer being cleaned Yesterdays cricket saw players hitting hands (palms) and absurd advice on numbers meeting together has long been ignored. Yet, like some Harry Potter cloak of invisibility a silly bit of cloth avoids more rigorous preventative measures, perhaps then folk should be encouraged to simply cross their fingers instead Share this post Link to post Share on other sites