20 more points for the play offs

[Bill 1,788]

A bit of number crunching gives 73 points for 6th place after 46 games - as it stands now.

So the average number of points per game (1.1) now needed would put us on 31 points after 28 games

So I would suggest that it is easily do-able

The main concern is that with another 10 or 12 points to that total we could only still finish 3rd

However nothing about last night suggest we are not capable of an automatic spot.

Get that open top bus ready 😀

[lake district canary 4,531]

One game at a time.

 

[Crabbycanary3 994]

Pragmatism rules!

[Van wink 2,994]

Bill

"The main concern is that with another 10 or 12 points to that total we could only still finish 3rd"

He's a genius 

[Bill 1,788]

I do like to cater for all levels of intellect in my posts RTB

So I'm glad to see that I haven't missed you out.

[Bill 1,788]

26 minutes ago, lake district canary said:

One game at a time.

 

Speculating on possible points totals/requirements doesn't suggest games being played simultaneously

[Cantiaci Canary 557]

☂️

Agree - take one game at a time but ...

What excites me is the fixture list after Leeds away ... take a look. With the quality of our squad and effectiveness of our head coach now proven we will have a GREAT chance!

[ricardo 7,395]

I think we should be looking at the amount of points needed for auto rather than Play offs.

Around 88 points ought to be enough looking at it historically so that's another 35 points from 18 games.

10 wins 5 draws and 3 defeats seems doable.

Maybe more but maybe less.

[wcorkcanary 4,334]

If we get an average of 2 points per game that gets us to  the total Ricardo reckons should be enough. We've just dipped below that lately but i strongly feel that we can do it.

[vos 155]

Based on the performances I have seen so far this season, from the front runners, to me we look firm favourites to take the title. SheffUtd and Leeds have both recently been on the TV and neither match our skill or quality on the ball. United in particular look very rough around the edges. Our biggest problem will be weak referees who fail to take firm action against persistent offenders whose tactics are to continually hack down our ball players. It is no use just waving yellow cards 30 yards away from the scene, they must give a direct warning.

[Canary73 160]

My worry is that cynical sides like Wilder's Blades will try and do a number on our lot not just in the game but to dent our chances for the rest of the season. We need to be savvy there and move the ball quicker. I recall a game earlier where QPR were accused of sharing fouls amongst players to do a job on key players - its harder for ref's to take action against this unless they are particularly strong - be interesting to see what refs we get in the next three games.

 

[Grando 260]

I think it’ll take more like 77 or 78 points to guarantee a play-off spot.

[splendidrush 700]

I'm not looking that far ahead, there's too much football to be played between now and then. If home to Blades,away to the Spies and the Derby aren't enough to keep you entertained then nothing will. 

[Surfer 1,547]

Yes I agree with a 76-78 points range for the first playoff spot and maybe only 6 points more than that for the first auto spot. It's a very tight league this year, so the required points should be a bit less than average.

[Bill 1,788]

14 hours ago, ricardo said:

I think we should be looking at the amount of points needed for auto rather than Play offs.

Around 88 points ought to be enough looking at it historically so that's another 35 points from 18 games.

10 wins 5 draws and 3 defeats seems doable.

Maybe more but maybe less.

err, no

the point of the post was to demonstrate how close we are to a ply off place already - not any thought that it is a target

and as things stand I would suggest a play off place is most probable

6th place has aggregated at around 73 points this season - that being points divided by games times 46

there actually is no target, other than to achieve as many points as possible over the 46 games, which so far has put us in a position whereby a play off place looks as good as nailed on

that's all

[ricardo 7,395]

Unless you think we will do worse than the equivalent of 6 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats from our 18 games then I would suggest a play off place is already virtually a statistical certainty. It's always possible that we could blow up but I doubt any would like to put money on it.

Bookmakers make it a 1-14 bet that we will be in the play offs.

[sonyc 5,520]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Unless you think we will do worse than the equivalent of 6 wins, 6 draws and 6 defeats from our 18 games then I would suggest a play off place is already virtually a statistical certainty. It's always possible that we could blow up but I doubt any would like to put money on it.

Bookmakers make it a 1-14 bet that we will be in the play offs.

I think we can be sure of the play offs. I cannot think our skill levels and general dominance in virtually every game we have played will drop off now. Yes, it's all about fine margins. But...I think we might be looking at between 87 and 92 points whenever I've tried to crunch a range of results into those forecasting sites.

Whether this is enough for the automatic places I'm not sure? Agree though it's these two spots we must be thinking about.

[East Rider 551]

Looking at just the next 4 games, we play against some of the teams who for one reason or another have a recent relevance to us over and above the norm.

It is a great set of fixtures for us at this moment, and an 8 point recturn would be superb.

Leeds away is going to be extremely difficult despite their recent form. However, the only fixture I'm slightly (only very slightly) concerned with is our home clash against the binners.

We may only get a draw! 😀

[Bill 1,788]

8 minutes ago, East Rider said:

Looking at just the next 4 games, we play against some of the teams who for one reason or another have a recent relevance to us over and above the norm.

It is a great set of fixtures for us at this moment, and an 8 point recturn would be superb.

Leeds away is going to be extremely difficult despite their recent form. However, the only fixture I'm slightly (only very slightly) concerned with is our home clash against the binners.

We may only get a draw! 😀

I can't see us only fielding six players !

Edited January 20, 2019 by Bill

[ricardo 7,395]

Against the Messiah anything is possible😀

[Bill 1,788]

perhaps he will still be paying for away travel in a few years time 😎

[East Rider 551]

I did wonder if it was worth asking the EFL for a law change for this particular fixture.

For example in some youth games, once a team is winning by a certain amount they have to withdraw a player or the other team add on, to even out the teams.

Perhaps the binners could start with all 3 substitutes on the pitch and just add numbers (or we take off) according to the ongoing score? ………………..for the sake of fairness and interest only of course.

Obviously we only have so many reserves, and at a particular score we should keep at least 5 or 6 of our players on the pitch. 🙃🤪

[TIL 1010 4,748]

1 hour ago, ricardo said:

Against the Messiah anything is possible😀

Remember he started this run against The Scum so it just may be him who puts an end to it. 😎

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

1 hour ago, TIL 1010 said:

Remember he started this run against The Scum so it just may be him who puts an end to it. 😎

Much as there really isn't a great deal to be negative about at the moment, I'm not comfortable with the level of complacency about the derby. I'm sure Farke and the players won't see it as a foregone conclusion...

[ricardo 7,395]

1 hour ago, TIL 1010 said:

Remember he started this run against The Scum so it just may be him who puts an end to it. 😎

It will inevitably come to an end at some stage but probably not this year.

[Surfer 1,547]

Derby games are always tight, nervy affairs. Can't assume anything and I'd be OK with a draw frankly. I'm more concerned about the Sheff Utd game. That's a "six pointer" - so win that one and grind out a draw at Leeds and we'll be golden; if Bolton can grab a point against WBA tomorrow then even better. 

I think over the next three games it's a question of don't lose - other teams around us will be playing big games too  - especially Middlesbrough - and it's possible we could come out of this stretch well ahead of the pack.

Middlesbrough - (h) Bristol - (a) WBA - (h) Leeds - (a) Sheff U

Edited January 20, 2019 by Surfer

[Bill 1,788]

1 hour ago, Feedthewolf said:

Much as there really isn't a great deal to be negative about at the moment, I'm not comfortable with the level of complacency about the derby. I'm sure Farke and the players won't see it as a foregone conclusion...

Given how it will be their efforts alone amongst the yellow and green then perhaps permit the rest of us our fun.

[Feedthewolf 4,846]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

Given how it will be their efforts alone amongst the yellow and green then perhaps permit the rest of us our fun.

In what way was I not permitting anyone their fun? I was just offering my opinion. There will be plenty of time to poke fun once we've beaten them - until then I'm keeping my powder dry.

[Van wink 2,994]

1 hour ago, Bill said:

Given how it will be their efforts alone amongst the yellow and green then perhaps permit the rest of us our fun.

 

3 hours ago, Feedthewolf said:

Much as there really isn't a great deal to be negative about at the moment, I'm not comfortable with the level of complacency about the derby. I'm sure Farke and the players won't see it as a foregone conclusion...

Agreed FTW. It will be as tough as the others, a huge banana skin.

[CANARYKING 638]

Save my brain, when did that lot last beat us