Are the Scum that good or Sunderland that bad ?

[CANARYKING 707]

Answers on a postcard.

[GJL Mid-Norfolk Canary 2,035]

Sunderland are bad.....think they''ve only beaten us all season when we were in ''possession is king'' mode before that was abandonedoned post millwall. Pretty sure we''d beat them if we played them today

[Tetteys Jig 851]

They''re good but limited. Some in form players going forward but still a bit lobbed together with cheapos and frees and in all likelihood they will get found out as the season goes one before finishing in a respectable mid table position. They have a good work ethic compared to the likes of Sunderland though and seem to score with every shot they have. I dunno if that''s ability or luck. It''s probably a bit of both

[Essjayess 307]

Town and Neils Preston have both had good starts obviously as both are in the top 6, so credit to them both, that is all one can and want to say really. Sunderland clearly have big problems, they were lucky to play us in the first few games when DF was still finding a formula that worked. Looks to be a long testing season ahead for them.

[cornish sam 1,040]

Sunderland are god awful, we just caught the dead (black) cat bounce.

So far 5 of the 6 wins Ipswich have are against teams who are in the bottom 3 at the time, but they seem convinced they will beat us as we "are on the ropes" and have "indifferent form" whilst boro are a poor side... It really is quite sad really. They are currently in a false position, scoring more than you''d expect for number of shots (one goal for every 2 on target/5 overall) and conceding fewer than expected from shots faced (only 1 for every 13 shots faced). Their bubble will burst.

[Baldyboy 1]

The question should really be, how the hell did Sunderland beat us 3-1?

[king canary 8,754]

It is the first time in a while that I''ve been concerned about playing them- they seem to have got their new signings playing well and scoring freely.

[ROBFLECK 134]

Agree King , that''s a feeling I haven''t had for ages. Naturally there were 4 seasons in the Prem (where the scumbags haven''t played in for ages...grin)...

Their signing from Rangers seems to be finding the net and he''s a proven goalscorer (at least in scotland...).

I still don''t think it will last...few injuries/suspensions and the bubble will burst

[King Keano 0]

A few injuries or suspensions? You''ve missed the part where we''ve had 11 players injured at some points this season? We still only have 1 fit CB and have 4-5 to return from injury.

We''ve certainly got a better squad and balance than we''ve had in a long time and probably one of the best strikers in the league in McGoldrick. Adeyemi has been excellent in midfield and really improved us over the last few weeks. We battered Sunderland and should''ve had 7 or 8. We should''ve beat Leeds at the weekend as well having dominated.

A lot is being made about an "easy start" but there are no easy games as you know; see Burton, Millwall & Sunderland.

Will we finish top 6? Probably not as there are a lot of big spending clubs - but we''re better than people give us credit for & have plenty of goals in us

[Coq au vin 0]

Yeah you won''t get relegated. As you were.

[nutty nigel 7,902]

Hey King Keano...

What about that pledge?

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 2,424]

The statisticians say that neither Sunderland are that bad or Ipswich that good.

Over the season Sunderland''s xG difference (the difference between xG for and xG against) is 0.12 and Ipswich''s is -0.46. That places Sunderland 12th in the League and Ipswich 21st. Norwich''s is -0.12, 17th in the league.

Obviously this isn''t a 100% accurate reflection on how good these teams are and yadda yadda yadda, all the normal caveats apply.

[cornish sam 1,040]

Bethnal - where are you getting the xD from? I''ve had a bit of a look and couldn''t find them for the championship...

[Bethnal Yellow and Green 2,424]

https://experimental361.com/

Although you have to extract the figures yourself. A nerd I know is running a Norwich Stats thing and has put them all into a database he shared with me.

[Indy_Bones 444]

[quote user="King Keano"]probably one of the best strikers in the league in McGoldrick.[/quote]I''m sorry - what???McGoldrick averages a goal every 4.5 games at this level (based on championship apps), and whilst he''s currently sat on 4 in 8, last season it was a far less impressive 6 in 30...Now compare that to players like: Jerome - 3.3 games per goalHooper - 2.7 games per goalOliveira - 2.7 games per goalKodjia - 2.4 games per goalRhodes - 2.3 games per goalAssombalonga - 2.3 games per goalRespectfully, McGoldrick isn''t close to being in the top 10 strikers in the league, in fact, he''s not even top 20 if we''re being honest, just because he''s had a good start to the season, doesn''t invalidate his less than stellar form for yourselves over the past 5 seasons.So, unless we''re now rating strikers based purely on things outside of goals (although struggling to consistently hit double figures each season isn''t exactly a good sign...), then McGoldrick demonstrably ISN''T one of the best strikers in this league...

[BroadstairsR 2,273]

McGoldrick (sorry "Didsy") is their classiest player by far and on his day much too good for them.

The big problem has been his fitness. He seems brittle and this is probably the biggest single factor that has prevented him ever playing at the higher level and the reason his still draws his pay from the paupers. His injury record is such that his current run in the side will likely end with a pull or something similar soon, hopefully by the time of the derby game.

His goal record might not be fantastic but he is not an out and out striker as such from the limited amount I have seen or read of him and I''ve mentioned before that he is the only player that the Refuse Disposal Officers have that I wouldn''t mind on our books.

[hogesar 10,762]

Im not scared by Ipswich. They''re still a bunch of journeymen and freebies.

[BroadstairsR 2,273]

They have had a good start to the season and have exceeded the expectations of even their own. That the fixture list has been very kind to them there is no doubting, but fair dos.

It won''t last that''s for sure and let''s hope that they have peeked too early whilst we are just nicely wearing in our new shoes all in good time for derby day.

Regular visitors to TWTD will have noticed that they are already working themselves up into a frenzy over this fixture. It is a big thing in Tinpot Town after all.

They also fancy their chances, but we''ve heard that before.

[alex_ncfc 686]

Of course it''s a big fixture for them, it''s a big day out and the only occasion for which they can fill their stadium past the 14,000 mark.

The excitement must be too much for them when a decent team comes to sleepy Suffolk.

[cornish sam 1,040]

Thanks BYG, I''d seen some of his scatters before and found them interesting... These ones just reinforce what I already thought about the Ipswich bubble https://experimental361.com/2017/09/28/scatter-graphics-championship-27-sep-2017/

Perhaps your nerdy friend would like to write a regular feature on here a bit like Parma''s masterclass but for those of us who like stats?

[hogesar 10,762]

[quote user="alex_ncfc"]Of course it''s a big fixture for them, it''s a big day out and the only occasion for which they can fill their stadium past the 14,000 mark.

The excitement must be too much for them when a decent team comes to sleepy Suffolk.[/quote]

The awkward thing is pre-season their fans were bleating if they were fighting for a top 6 place at the start of the season they''d be getting 20k+ attendances. Despite their annoyingly good start they still don''t have much of a fanbase.

[king canary 8,754]

I do think they serve as a stark warning to those on here who seem to think full houses are guaranteed at Carrow no matter what though.

[ricardo 8,034]

[quote user="king canary"]I do think they serve as a stark warning to those on here who seem to think full houses are guaranteed at Carrow no matter what though.[/quote][Y]

[kick it off 2,062]

They''re nearly filling 50% of their capacity. Theyre attracting less fans than Bolton. They still think they''re a big club. Quite funny really.

Mediocre for twenty years, no fans, but because they won a cup 50 years ago (which a tiny % of their tiny fanbase can remember) they actually think they''re important.

This bubble will pop. They aren''t very good, they''re just on a good run but it will end and probably quite soon.

[nutty nigel 7,902]

Full houses are not guaranteed. Football is cyclical and we had an amazing run which resulted in full houses and long season ticket waiting lists. But the longer we stay in this league the more attendances will drop. That''s bad news financially for the club but good news for casual fans and younsters. If this current revolution gains pace we will build up to enthusiastic full houses and waiting lists again.

[alex_ncfc 686]

I don''t know what''s more cringeworthy, Kick it Off, the fact that they still drone on about winning something almost half a century ago or that they have this warped belief that they are everyone''s second team hahaha

[kick it off 2,062]

[quote user="nutty nigel"]Full houses are not guaranteed. Football is cyclical and we had an amazing run which resulted in full houses and long season ticket waiting lists. But the longer we stay in this league the more attendances will drop. That''s bad news financially for the club but good news for casual fans and younsters. If this current revolution gains pace we will build up to enthusiastic full houses and waiting lists again.[/quote]

I agree to an extent, but disagree about the reasoning. I don''t think we get full houses because we had an amazing run - We''ve averaged 24k+ (essentially our max capacity or close to it, as we''ve added more seats remember) since 2005. We certainly weren''t on an amazing run after the Worthington Prem season.

I think our current support actually stems back to the late 90s when we were pretty poorly attended (although still better than the Scum''s current miserable existence) and the regular kids for a quid campaign. That''s bought us a generation of kids who grew up going to see the City at Carrow Road and turned into loyal fans. Whether we sustain this level of support now we''re deeply embedded in the community again is up for debate - certainly could be cyclical as it''s not cheap to take the family to Carrow Road these days, but equally, we may have a solid enough foundation of the fanbase to keep ticking over.

http://european-football-statistics.co.uk/attnclub/norc.htm

[nutty nigel 7,902]

Yes you''re right about the late 90s and then a combination of events that followed. The play-off final in Cardiff ultimately lit the fuse followed by the neccessity to replace the south stand. Because that meant just at a time when we had new fans wanting to go the capacity was reduced to build the new stand. This made tickets like gold dust and by the time the new stand was complete we were well on the way to the PL with Hucks. A perfect storm to sell out the new increased capacity. Then we had the massive take up of season tickets and the long waiting list. Nothing lasts forever though. And if that list have all taken up their tickets the ST numbers will go down for every consecutive disappointing season.

It''s all a long way from my first game in 1967 where we had 42,000 for cup tie against sheff wed. I think the home game after that was 13,000! If our capacity was 40,000 now we''d probably get similar swings in disappointing seasons.