P32/32pts 15th place - an historical comparison

[Moosheep 0]

I thought I would look back at how often a team with 32 points after 32 games had been relegated (bored at work). The answer is in 5 seasons as shown below. 96/97 - 41pts needed for survivalSunderland P32/33pts (16th) Middlesbrough P32/33pt (19th)99/00 - 34ptsWimbledon P32/32pts (17th)01/02 - 37ptsIpswich P32/32pts (18th)07/08 - 36pts, -24gdReading P32/32pts (15th)10/11  - 40ptsBirmingham P32/38pts (14th)Blackpool P32/33pts (17th)West Ham P32/32pts (18th)* comparison is since 95/96 season when the EPL went to 20 teams.What does this tell us about our survival/relegation chances.....nothing really, other than we are not safe and teams with more points and higher up than us at this stage of the season have gone down. Discus or ignore.Moo

[ricardo 8,034]

More to the point, how many will be needed to stay up?35 points might be safe36 points should be safe37 points will be safe.

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]More to the point, how many will be needed to stay up?35 points might be safe36 points should be safe37 points will be safe.[/quote]Totally wrong, Ricardo, and being too blasé35 points certainly will NOT be safe36 pts might just very possibly be safe37 points probably will be safe38 pts , barring a freak will be safe39 pts WILL be safe.

[Moosheep 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]More to the point, how many will be needed to stay up?35 points might be safe36 points should be safe37 points will be safe.[/quote]We just don''t know the answer to that. I bet that at this point in the 2010/11 season, Birmingham, sitting in 14th place with 39pts, felt pretty safe!Moo

[ricardo 8,034]

[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"][quote user="ricardo"]More to the point, how many will be needed to stay up?35 points might be safe36 points should be safe37 points will be safe.[/quote]Totally wrong, Ricardo, and being too blasé35 points certainly will NOT be safe36 pts might just very possibly be safe37 points probably will be safe38 pts , barring a freak will be safe39 pts WILL be safe.[/quote]

I think I will be right but yours don''t look any more than a point different to mine.

[JF 694]

36 points will be safe. I dont think we will get there. I think we will get 35 and it will go down to GD, and we only have a better GD over 2 teams down there.

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]

I think I will be right but yours don''t look any more than a point different to mine.[/quote]

Precisely the point, Rick (if you''ll forgive the pun !)The odd point or two should neither be here nor there, but I''m pretty sure this season they will be absolutely crucial. I honestly believe that you are a couple of points shy on the safety net, and that could make all the difference. And, don''t forget our dismal GD is like a point fewer on our total.

[It's Character Forming 1,204]

We''ll see, won''t we.  My guess is that 36 points will defo be safe and it could well be that 35 points is ok, and as you say a single point will be crucial, we''ll see who''s right come May 11th.

[city4eva 242]

[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"][quote user="ricardo"]More to the point, how many will be needed to stay up?35 points might be safe36 points should be safe37 points will be safe.[/quote]Totally wrong, Ricardo, and being too blasé35 points certainly will NOT be safe36 pts might just very possibly be safe37 points probably will be safe38 pts , barring a freak will be safe39 pts WILL be safe.[/quote]Interesting I think 35 points will be safe

[ricardo 8,034]

[quote user="Reggie Strayshun"][quote user="ricardo"]

I think I will be right but yours don''t look any more than a point different to mine.[/quote]

Precisely the point, Rick (if you''ll forgive the pun !)The odd point or two should neither be here nor there, but I''m pretty sure this season they will be absolutely crucial. I honestly believe that you are a couple of points shy on the safety net, and that could make all the difference. And, don''t forget our dismal GD is like a point fewer on our total.[/quote]But only if somebody equals our points total and if we get to 36 points I can''t see that happening. Fulham would need to win 4 in 6, Cardiff 3 wins and a draw. Sunderland have games in hand but they are only any good if you get points from them. With all the teams playing each other it''s hard to see where 36 points wouldn''t be safe.Equally, the big boys won''t win all their games (as we saw with Palace v Chelsea) so it would be silly to write anything off until it''s impossible. It will all be a little clearer after this next round of matches.

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

Of course that''s right, ICF, and I hope you are correct. It''s tempting to think of this only in terms of whether we beat WBA or not. For example, we could lose to WBA but ,shock horror, beat Fulham. That would put us on 35 pts, all but relegate Fulham, but we''d be nowhere near safe, especially if Sunderland win tonight !

[pete 371]

As bottom 4 have less than a point per game it seems probable these teams are unlikely to get more than a point for each remaining games.

This gives Fulham 24 pts + 6 = 30 points

Sunderland 25 + 9 = 34 points

Cardiff 26 + 6 = 32 points

WBA 29 + 7= 36 points

But as teams to play each other expect to see fewer points. 35 points will see us safe for definite.

Clubs in relegation zone are not showing any form and all are terrible away from home.

[Jim Smith 2,610]

Fulham have three very winnable home games left and a couple away that they could also get something from.

We simply must not lose there. Beat West Brom and get a point at Fulham and 36 should be enough. Anything less and I''m not sure it will necessarily be enough.

[flecky76 0]

Definitely agree with Reggie here.

In my view, I will be worried with anything we get under 38, especially with our poor GD.

That said, Wet Spam win tonight, coupled with Sunderlands horrendous next 5 games, and I would reduce that total by 2 points.

there are ALWAYS wired results towards the end of the season when teams get desparate, which must be factored in. Palaces against Chelsea being one of them.

We still need ABSOLUTE LEAST 4 points, and maybe 6, to consider ourselves safe. Fail to get 3 points against West Brom and we have a big problem.

[flecky76 0]

*weird*

[whoareyou? 0]

The weird result could just as likely be us beating Liverpool, United, Arsenal or Chelski as anyone else.Sunderland still have to go to Manchester City, Man Utd,  Spurs and Chelsea and have visits from Everton, West Brom and Swansea.They still have to play Cardiff and they can''t both win that one. And they have the worst home record in the League.There is still much to play for although personally i will be happy when this season is over and done with.

[blahblahblah 2]

the combination of form and current points at statto.com has us on 37 points at the end of the season, with 34 being the Sunderland in 18th spot. I can''t see them getting that many myself - it could be as low as 33 points this season.

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league

[ricardo 8,034]

[quote user="blahblahblah"]the combination of form and current points at statto.com has us on 37 points at the end of the season, with 34 being the Sunderland in 18th spot. I can''t see them getting that many myself - it could be as low as 33 points this season.

http://www.statto.com/football/stats/england/premier-league[/quote]

Its not been updated with tonights result yet. Will likely now be 32 points.35 points should be enough, 36 points almost certainly will.

[Canary Willo 0]

Think you are spot on Ricardo. You have to allow for the freak result, but realistically, Sunderland will struggle to take anything from their next 4 games; Spurs a, Everton h, Man City a, Chelsea a. That would leave them with only 4 games to go and needing 11 points to get to 36. And one of those 4 is Cardiff.

 

Cardiff need 9 points from 6 games and Fulham 11 from 6 to reach 35.

 

We are very fortunate this season requires low points to survive..... 35-36 points will do it.

 

Its over to you Mr Hughton to win a ''Must Win'' yet again.....

[norfolkbroadslim 225]

The important bit has been omitted from all this. In those seasons where 32 points from 32 games = relegation for some teams. How many points did the bottom 3 have at the same stage?

[morty 0]

I am with Ricardo on this.I don''t expect the bottom of the table to look a whole lot different, come the end of the season.

[Graham Humphrey 13]

[quote user="norfolkbroadslim"]The important bit has been omitted from all this. In those seasons where 32 points from 32 games = relegation for some teams. How many points did the bottom 3 have at the same stage?[/quote]Context like this is certainly important.  I just checked 2010-11 and the bottom three were:18. West Ham - 32 Pts19. Wolves - 32 Pts20. Wigan - 31 PtsIt was extraordinarily tight that season.  At this stage Newcastle were ninth but only seven points above 19th.  This season the bottom three are a very long way behind that of course even though at one stage it looked like things would be similarly close - it''s almost impossible to see the bottom clubs making up that ground to all get to a point a game or near as.

[Waveney Canary 0]

[quote user="ricardo"]More to the point, how many will be needed to stay up?

35 points might be safe

36 points should be safe

37 points will be safe.
[/quote]

Ricardo is the God on this stuff if he says it I believe it.

[Reggie Strayshun 0]

I''ll agree that Sunderland''s loss last night does alter the complexion of this slightly.But I still believe that we need one more win and at least one more draw to breathe easy. ie bare minimum 36 pts.

[The ghost of Michael Theoklitos 0]

After last nights game, for 37 points to be safety the following would need to happen;Sunderland will need to get 11 points from the following 8 games;Spurs AEverton HMan City AChelsea ACardiff HMan U AWest Brom HSwansea HAs well asWest Brom would need to get 7 points from the following 7 games;Norwich ASpurs HMan City HWest Ham AArsenal HSunderland AStoke HAs well asPalace will need to get 6 points from the following 7 games;Cardiff AVilla HEverton AWest Ham AMan City HLiverpool HFulham AI''ve said on here a few times, I think 35 will probably be safe. However, I''d hate to be testing that theory on the last day of the league.

[BOO 0]

Ricardo seems to have the "knowledge" on these things, I think he will be right, he''s a clever old boy.

[whoareyou? 0]

2009/10 3 clubs were relegated with 30 points or less, Burnley, Hull and Portsmouth.They all got 6 points from their last 7 games.

[GenerationA47 864]

norfolkbroadslim:

"The important bit has been omitted from all this. In those seasons where 32 points from 32 games = relegation for some teams. How many points did the bottom 3 have at the same stage?"

In 2007-08, Reading had 32 pts from 32 games, gained 4 pts from the last 6 and were still relegated. At that stage, the bottom 6 was:

 

Reading   32 pts

Wigan   31 pts

Birmingham 30 pts

Bolton    26 pts

Fulham    24 pts

Derby   11 pts

 

The final bottom 5 was:

 

Bolton   37 pts (GD -18)

Fulham   36 pts (GD -22)

Reading   36 pts (GD -25) [R]

Birmingham   35 pts (GD -16) [R]

Derby   19 pts (GD -69) [R]

 

 

So, can Sunderland and Fulham do a Bolton and a... Fulham?