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PurpleCanary

THE RUN-IN

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[quote user="Yelloow Since 72"]Wigan''s game in hand is their main hope now, but that and a Cup-Final to boot means they have to play 6 games in 4 weeks at the tired end of the season. That''s a big ask, IMO, given the teams they have to play. The final game against Villa also means that both can''t get 3 points. As long as City are 1 point above one and 2 points above the other, we can''t be relegated on the final day (whatever happens at ManCity). A couple of draws should guarantee our safety, but it would be great if we could push on and finish mid-table again (ie. 13th or above).[/quote]....it is actually 5 games in 16 days in May, a game every 3 days, and one of those the cup final.

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I wasn''t going to update this until after Villa play Sunderland on Monday, but one thing is now clear. If we get no points or only one in our last three games and Wigan catch up on points then they will almost certainly overtake us on goal difference. Ours - at -21 - being bound to worsen and their - at -23 - being likely to improve.The better news is that even if we get no points they still need to win two out of WBA and Arsenal away and Swansea and Villa at home, and if one of those (as seems likely ) is Villa that might be our route to safety. If we get two draws from the next two home games and get to (finish on?) 40 then Wigan have to win an improbable three out of the  last four.

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What surprises me is the disbelief that people have that we are in big trouble. A study of form, tactics, and other teams momentum can only lead you to this conclusion.

 

Will we beat Villa ? Not if we allow them to attack us by playing our usual pattern , which almost certainly we will. Villa could easily be two up after half an hour. CH will play to not concede. Which will be a disaster.

 

Will we beat West Brom? Only if they are as poor as Reading. Or the team take it upon themselves to play higher up the pitch as we did against Everton in the last five minutes (whilst CH frantically waved the players back after we equalised) .  We haven''t beaten anyone else for months.  

 

Lets not even mention a scenario where we need something at Man City, we''ve got more chance of finding Lord Lucan.   

 

And 38 points is simply not enough with our goal difference.  

 

One thing is for certain, for us to stay up we need to do something different. The question is...will we?

 

 

 

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We are unbeaten at home this year. If that changed we''d probably get relegated unless the away form changed so we won at Man City. It may pay to do two things the same Mr Beard.

 

 

 

 

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"]I wasn''t going to update this until after Villa play Sunderland on Monday, but one thing is now clear. If we get no points or only one in our last three games and Wigan catch up on points then they will almost certainly overtake us on goal difference. Ours - at -21 - being bound to worsen and their - at -23 - being likely to improve.The better news is that even if we get no points they still need to win two out of WBA and Arsenal away and Swansea and Villa at home, and if one of those (as seems likely ) is Villa that might be our route to safety. If we get two draws from the next two home games and get to (finish on?) 40 then Wigan have to win an improbable three out of the  last four.[/quote]

 

Barely believable but Newcastle''s GD is now at -23. What seemed highly unlikely - that we could finish level on points with them but ahead on GD - now comes into the equation.

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"]I wasn''t going to update this until after Villa play Sunderland on Monday, but one thing is now clear. If we get no points or only one in our last three games and Wigan catch up on points then they will almost certainly overtake us on goal difference. Ours - at -21 - being bound to worsen and their - at -23 - being likely to improve.

The better news is that even if we get no points they still need to win two out of WBA and Arsenal away and Swansea and Villa at home, and if one of those (as seems likely ) is Villa that might be our route to safety. If we get two draws from the next two home games and get to (finish on?) 40 then Wigan have to win an improbable three out of the  last four.
[/quote]

 

Barely believable but Newcastle''s GD is now at -23. What seemed highly unlikely - that we could finish level on points with them but ahead on GD - now comes into the equation.

[/quote]

 

 Purple, I think there''s much more in the equation than the goal difference. Today, Newcastle resembled Norwich in our final game at Fulham in 2005, worse, Newcastle were on their own turf. The body language was absolutely awful, as it was from Alan Pardew at the end of the match. Despite his long-term contract he might be gone. Certainly that was true of about 30,000 Newcastle fans with at least 20 minutes remaining, and I don''t think they all had a train to catch. [:D]

The betting man would likely not see Newcastle getting another single point at this stage and they must be favourites with Wigan for the drop. Wigan, at least still have spirit even if they need points.

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[quote user="YankeeCanary"][quote user="PurpleCanary"]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"]I wasn''t going to update this until after Villa play Sunderland on Monday, but one thing is now clear. If we get no points or only one in our last three games and Wigan catch up on points then they will almost certainly overtake us on goal difference. Ours - at -21 - being bound to worsen and their - at -23 - being likely to improve.The better news is that even if we get no points they still need to win two out of WBA and Arsenal away and Swansea and Villa at home, and if one of those (as seems likely ) is Villa that might be our route to safety. If we get two draws from the next two home games and get to (finish on?) 40 then Wigan have to win an improbable three out of the  last four.[/quote]

 

Barely believable but Newcastle''s GD is now at -23. What seemed highly unlikely - that we could finish level on points with them but ahead on GD - now comes into the equation.

[/quote]

 

 Purple, I think there''s much more in the equation than the goal difference. Today, Newcastle resembled Norwich in our final game at Fulham in 2005, worse, Newcastle were on their own turf. The body language was absolutely awful, as it was from Alan Pardew at the end of the match. Despite his long-term contract he might be gone. Certainly that was true of about 30,000 Newcastle fans with at least 20 minutes remaining, and I don''t think they all had a train to catch. [:D]

The betting man would likely not see Newcastle getting another single point at this stage and they must be favourites with Wigan for the drop. Wigan, at least still have spirit even if they need points.

[/quote]Yankee, that''s interesting. I didn''t see either game ([:D]) but if you are right or nearly right - ie they only get a point or two - then that does give us another team above whom we can finish even if we fail to get a win.

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We might get a point against West Brom. Given our previous on the last day of the season I wouldn''t rely on our goal difference not going considerably further south at the Etihad.

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[quote user="PurpleCanary"]

[quote user="PurpleCanary"]I wasn''t going to update this until after Villa play Sunderland on Monday, but one thing is now clear. If we get no points or only one in our last three games and Wigan catch up on points then they will almost certainly overtake us on goal difference. Ours - at -21 - being bound to worsen and their - at -23 - being likely to improve.The better news is that even if we get no points they still need to win two out of WBA and Arsenal away and Swansea and Villa at home, and if one of those (as seems likely ) is Villa that might be our route to safety. If we get two draws from the next two home games and get to (finish on?) 40 then Wigan have to win an improbable three out of the  last four.[/quote]

 

Barely believable but Newcastle''s GD is now at -23. What seemed highly unlikely - that we could finish level on points with them but ahead on GD - now comes into the equation.

[/quote]

The thing is that Newcastle have two trips to london (Wet Spam and Quite Possibly Relegated) plus a visit of The Gurners left to play. Newcastle have a terrible record in london.

You can get 12/1 on newcastle being relegated it''s a good value bet at this point.

BTW bet365 still have norwich at 25/1 if you really thing we will be relegated. (a £20 bet would pay for a season ticket)

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[quote user="Highland Canary"]We might get a point against West Brom. Given our previous on the last day of the season I wouldn''t rely on our goal difference not going considerably further south at the Etihad.[/quote]

 

I''d be more concerned if you predicted we''d get three points. Your predictions on here are the worst of all the posters. You had us bottom at Christmas, relegated by Burns night and QPR challenging for Europe.

 

 

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[quote user="nutty nigel"]

[quote user="Highland Canary"]We might get a point against West Brom. Given our previous on the last day of the season I wouldn''t rely on our goal difference not going considerably further south at the Etihad.[/quote]

 

I''d be more concerned if you predicted we''d get three points. Your predictions on here are the worst of all the posters. You had us bottom at Christmas, relegated by Burns night and QPR challenging for Europe.

 

 

[/quote]He''s really Mark Lawrenson ;)

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[quote user="Graham Paddons Beard"]

I fear as we go into the last game of the season it will be

us on 39 points.

Wigan on 38 points

Villa  on 40 pts

Newcastle on 39 points.

 

 

[/quote]

 

How many points do you have Southampton and Sunderland on going into the final game?   

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As things stand would people take 39 points, there has to be a danger we get nothing else. I always thought we wouldstruggle to some extent this season but the run since christmas and style of play in particular has been worse than i could have imagined. It does depend on Villa mindset they are capable of winning 0 - 4 but also shooting themselves in the foot. The Southampton result showed WBAare not ob the beach yet

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If that is the case Slim I would fear for us. Expect no favours from Villa at Wigan, so in those circumstances that game would not be our saviour as Purple suggests.

The Wigan - Villa game has an intriguing number of possibilities depending on the results leading up to it. It could be a play off for survival between the two, a game that provides the points for Wigan''s survival. But the scariest scenario is it being a stroll in the park for both of them as they play out a dull but required draw that sees them both survive at our expense.

We really do need to be in a position where come the day we have no dependency on the outcome of that game.

OTBC

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[quote user="Graham Paddons Beard"]

I fear as we go into the last game of the season it will be

us on 39 points.

Wigan on 38 points

Villa  on 40 pts

Newcastle on 39 points.

 [/quote]

So Wigan will win two of their next 3 games (WBA A, Swansea H, Arsenal A)

Villa will win two of their next 3 games (Sunderland H, Norwich A, Chelsea H)

Newcastle will draw their next 2 games (West Ham A, QPR A)

And we will draw one of our next 2 games (Villa H, WBA H)

It''s interesting how teams below us, who have been below us for nearly all the season, will suddenly find Top 8-style form.

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[quote user="Mister Chops"][quote user="Graham Paddons Beard"]

I fear as we go into the last game of the season it will be

us on 39 points.

Wigan on 38 points

Villa  on 40 pts

Newcastle on 39 points.

 [/quote]

So Wigan will win two of their next 3 games (WBA A, Swansea H, Arsenal A)

Villa will win two of their next 3 games (Sunderland H, Norwich A, Chelsea H)

Newcastle will draw their next 2 games (West Ham A, QPR A)

And we will draw one of our next 2 games (Villa H, WBA H)

It''s interesting how teams below us, who have been below us for nearly all the season, will suddenly find Top 8-style form.

[/quote]Wigan - 2 points from last 4 gamesVilla - 4 points from last 4 games - averaging 1 point per game at homeNewcastle - 4 points from last 4 games - and have a worse away record than usNorwich - 4 points from last 4 games - and unbeaten at home in the PL in 2013 with 2 home games coming upDear oh deary me.

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Going into the last game:

13. Stoke 37 - 40 points (lose to Sunderland, Stoke)

14. Newcastle 37 - 40 points (beat QPR, lose to West Ham)

15. Soton 37 - 39 points (lose to Sunderland, Spurs)

16. Norwich 37 - 39 points ( point vs West Brom)

17. Wigan 37- 38 points (win vs West Brom and Swansea)

18. Villa - 37 - 38 points (draw vs Sunderland, beat us)

So assuming a Sunderland, Villa draw; that we get a point vs West Brom and don''t suffer a thrashing at the hands of Villa and/or City on the last day, we''ll stay up on goal difference if Wigan, Villa is a draw.

Given we had money in the bank at Christmas and points on the board, it''s poor decisions in the transfer window coupled with poor tactics on the pitch that, unfortunately, have brought us to the brink of relegation once again.

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[quote user="Graham Paddons Beard"]

I fear as we go into the last game of the season it will be

us on 39 points.

Wigan on 38 points

Villa  on 40 pts

Newcastle on 39 points.

 

 

[/quote]A possible scenario but no more likely than many others. There will be more unexpected results next week when it will all look different again.

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[quote user="Herman "]On the brink of relegation?? 6 points clear is not on the brink yet.[/quote]

Herman - I know we view our position quite differently but I hope ''brink'' doesn''t mean waiting for the City game and needing a result or watching how other matches pan out.

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I''m going to go out on a limb and say we''ll get a minimum of 4 points from our remaining home games, 42 points should be enough to see us through. I actually think 41 would be enough because I just can''t see Wigan or Villa breaking the 40 point mark. I think they''ll come close, and it''ll be nervy stuff right to the end. But although I have written off the Man City game as an inevitable loss, I think the lads have got what''s needed to make the most of the final 2 games at home and see us go again in the Prem next season.

To be honest, the only fear I have is a small selection of fans getting anxious and on the teams back if we were to go behind against Villa or WBA. Installing nerves into the team isn''t what we want. The team needs us to be positive, believe and get behind them whatever score is on the board. (bit of a tangent I know but felt it relevant to make).

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I would expect that there are a lot of Newcastle fans would swap our position and run in to theirs, even though we only have one point more

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[quote user="Mister Chops"][quote user="Graham Paddons Beard"]

I fear as we go into the last game of the season it will be

us on 39 points.

Wigan on 38 points

Villa  on 40 pts

Newcastle on 39 points.

 [/quote]

So Wigan will win two of their next 3 games (WBA A, Swansea H, Arsenal A)

Villa will win two of their next 3 games (Sunderland H, Norwich A, Chelsea H)

Newcastle will draw their next 2 games (West Ham A, QPR A)

And we will draw one of our next 2 games (Villa H, WBA H)

It''s interesting how teams below us, who have been below us for nearly all the season, will suddenly find Top 8-style form.

[/quote]

Isn''t the impossible, we can''t draw villa and they get 40pts.. we need to have 41 ??

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[quote user="Sussexyellow"]If that is the case Slim I would fear for us. Expect no favours from Villa at Wigan, so in those circumstances that game would not be our saviour as Purple suggests. The Wigan - Villa game has an intriguing number of possibilities depending on the results leading up to it. It could be a play off for survival between the two, a game that provides the points for Wigan''s survival. But the scariest scenario is it being a stroll in the park for both of them as they play out a dull but required draw that sees them both survive at our expense. We really do need to be in a position where come the day we have no dependency on the outcome of that game. OTBC[/quote]

This.

So try to win every game...don''t lose if you can''t win..but above all else, try to win!

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