Would relegation help NCFC?

[Mister Chops 7]

Despite crowds of 25,000, we cannot meet the cost of player signings & wages and are losing around £10k a day as a business as a result.That''s Doncaster''s view, last seen in the EDP before Christmas.He went on to say that "without wealthy supporters, we would not see Championship football."We clearly have no transfer budget and can''t compete on wages.  The bucket is empty.Now I think - and I could well be wrong - there are people at boardroom level who would be quite happy to see us relegated.  We could then balance the player budget at around £5m, against the income from ticket sales, and operate within our means... while our wealthy benefactors could hang on to their own money and not pump it into the club.  The cost for this may be League One football, but it would remove the threat of administration and/or bankruptcy.From my point of view, I would rather see Norwich City in League One than see them enter administration.  I could still see both, or neither.  But relegation, though hugely disappointing, would not be the end of the world, or the club.  If the predicted financial meltdown is going to be as imminent and severe as predicted, it could even be a saving grace.

[Plastic Scouser 0]

Maybe in another time & place - it didn''t do Man City too much harm in the long run did it...However in the current financial situation it would do irreparable harm.

[National express super guard 0]

I often think dropping down would help balance the books, but I''ve also considered the club saying right we''re fooked, lets call in the administrators, take the -10 points, and drop down, thus creating a fresh start. my only concern is, and this is not a dig at people, but we have a lot of fairweather fans, and it''d be more like 16k turning up in league one. the 3rd tier of english football is not something to look forward to but it could be a fresh start for Norwich City, just worried its a gamble

[Mister Chops 7]

[quote user="Plastic Scouser"]Maybe in another time & place - it didn''t do Man City too much harm in the long run did it...However in the current financial situation it would do irreparable harm.[/quote]How so?We would still sell, at a guess, 20,000 season tickets.  We would still draw large crowds.  The income would stay reasonably similar, maybe £2 off a match ticket.  But the player wages bill would be slashed, and we could bring through our young players on trainee or young player wages.The only thing I can''t comment on is the TV Rights income for League One vs Championship sides.

[astrodyne 0]

On paper it may look ok, but would we get there and then hear a load of excuses as to why we can''t (and aren''t) compete(ing) at the upper end of League One? I think you know the answer to that one Choppo.

[First Wizard 0]

It twould mean administration for sure.

[NCFC_Edward 0]

no it would not help us because it is unlikely we would bounce straight back up!

[Andy Larkin 15]

You haven''t allowed for the fall in income from averaging 24k to 10k.

[grantroederdisaster 0]

It would help us get shot of Roedernowhere but that would be the only positive aspect!

[Syteanric 1]

[quote user="Mister Chops"][quote user="Plastic Scouser"]Maybe in another time & place - it didn''t do Man City too much harm in the long run did it...However in the current financial situation it would do irreparable harm.
[/quote]

How so?

We would still sell, at a guess, 20,000 season tickets.  We would still draw large crowds.  The income would stay reasonably similar, maybe £2 off a match ticket.  But the player wages bill would be slashed, and we could bring through our young players on trainee or young player wages.

The only thing I can''t comment on is the TV Rights income for League One vs Championship sides.
[/quote]

no way in hell would we sell 20,000 season tickets in league 1! we''d sell about 12000 if we were lucky! relegation would mean administration and a points deduction, which could mean another relegation and something from which the club will never recover!

jas :)

[Robert Ketts Yellow Army 35]

[quote user="Mister Chops"]Despite crowds of 25,000, we cannot meet the cost of player signings & wages and are losing around £10k a day as a business as a result.

That''s Doncaster''s view, last seen in the EDP before Christmas.

He went on to say that "without wealthy supporters, we would not see Championship football."

We clearly have no transfer budget and can''t compete on wages.  The bucket is empty.

Now I think - and I could well be wrong - there are people at boardroom level who would be quite happy to see us relegated.  We could then balance the player budget at around £5m, against the income from ticket sales, and operate within our means... while our wealthy benefactors could hang on to their own money and not pump it into the club.  The cost for this may be League One football, but it would remove the threat of administration and/or bankruptcy.

From my point of view, I would rather see Norwich City in League One than see them enter administration.  I could still see both, or neither.  But relegation, though hugely disappointing, would not be the end of the world, or the club.  If the predicted financial meltdown is going to be as imminent and severe as predicted, it could even be a saving grace.


[/quote]

 

Good post. Div 1 would be depressing though, full stop

[Yellowfuture 71]

I suspect we would end up mid  table if we went down and the Board would lower their expectations for our club even more. I dont believe they would have the ambition to get us back into the Championship, particularly if the attendance continued at around 15-18000, which it probably would ,for a couple of seasons. 

[William Darby 0]

IMO dropping £2 off a match ticket is dream land.  A price freeze will be the best they''d do.

[Faded Jaded Semi Plastic SOB 1,220]

In a word "No". I think your estimate of season tickets is very optimistic, I reckon you are looking at crowds of 15,000, running costs are not going to go down significantly, certainly not by the same level as income, then you have the problem of who you are going to attract to a third division club once all the loanees have gone. I also believe that may be the signal for Delia and hubby to throw in the towel with administration and all that will bring. Sorry but I cannot see how being relegated is going to be a good thing.

[kdncfc 0]

[quote user="Mister Chops"][quote user="Plastic Scouser"]Maybe in another time & place - it didn''t do Man City too much harm in the long run did it...However in the current financial situation it would do irreparable harm.
[/quote]

How so?

We would still sell, at a guess, 20,000 season tickets.  We would still draw large crowds.  The income would stay reasonably similar, maybe £2 off a match ticket.  But the player wages bill would be slashed, and we could bring through our young players on trainee or young player wages.

The only thing I can''t comment on is the TV Rights income for League One vs Championship sides.
[/quote]

We would be lucky to sell much more than 12k season tickets if we dropped to league 1, relegation would be a disaster of biblical proportions for this club. I think we could well go into administration if we got relegated, the only possible good could be that it would enable someone to buy the club for a pound and we''d get shot of the board.

[mickey phelans tash 0]

Hasn''t helped Leeds much but then it may have helped Leicester.

[Mello Yello 2,572]

[quote user="Mister Chops"][quote user="Plastic Scouser"]Maybe in another time & place - it didn''t do Man City too much harm in the long run did it...However in the current financial situation it would do irreparable harm.
[/quote]

How so?

We would still sell, at a guess, 20,000 season tickets.  We would still draw large crowds.  The income would stay reasonably similar, maybe £2 off a match ticket.  But the player wages bill would be slashed, and we could bring through our young players on trainee or young player wages.

The only thing I can''t comment on is the TV Rights income for League One vs Championship sides.
[/quote]

And Boy, wouldn''t that suit and please our present board of Directionless, eh....Tickin'' over quite nicely and bringin'' in the punters, still.

[Glutton for Punishment 0]

[quote user="kdncfc"]

[quote user="Mister Chops"][quote user="Plastic Scouser"]Maybe in another time & place - it didn''t do Man City too much harm in the long run did it...However in the current financial situation it would do irreparable harm.
[/quote]

How so?

We would still sell, at a guess, 20,000 season tickets.  We would still draw large crowds.  The income would stay reasonably similar, maybe £2 off a match ticket.  But the player wages bill would be slashed, and we could bring through our young players on trainee or young player wages.

The only thing I can''t comment on is the TV Rights income for League One vs Championship sides.
[/quote]

We would be lucky to sell much more than 12k season tickets if we dropped to league 1, relegation would be a disaster of biblical proportions for this club. I think we could well go into administration if we got relegated, the only possible good could be that it would enable someone to buy the club for a pound and we''d get shot of the board.

[/quote]

Spot on kdncfc. From memory the infamous securitisation arrangement is dependent on future gate receipts. The inevitable drop in season ticket sales and casual fans would almost certainly lead to administration. Relegation would not be then end but would see NCFC scratching around in the lower leagues for a few years.

[city-till-i-die 7]

[quote user="Mister Chops"]Despite crowds of 25,000, we cannot meet the cost of player signings & wages and are losing around £10k a day as a business as a result.

That''s Doncaster''s view, last seen in the EDP before Christmas.

He went on to say that "without wealthy supporters, we would not see Championship football."

We clearly have no transfer budget and can''t compete on wages.  The bucket is empty.

Now I think - and I could well be wrong - there are people at boardroom level who would be quite happy to see us relegated.  We could then balance the player budget at around £5m, against the income from ticket sales, and operate within our means... while our wealthy benefactors could hang on to their own money and not pump it into the club.  The cost for this may be League One football, but it would remove the threat of administration and/or bankruptcy.

From my point of view, I would rather see Norwich City in League One than see them enter administration.  I could still see both, or neither.  But relegation, though hugely disappointing, would not be the end of the world, or the club.  If the predicted financial meltdown is going to be as imminent and severe as predicted, it could even be a saving grace.


[/quote]NO..simple as

[Mister Chops 7]

I think you''re all wrong re: ticket sales being 12-13,000.  I think we would still sell 18-19,000 season tickets in League One for the first season.  After that, people may drift away, but when we came down from the Prem everyone said "oh, that''s it then," and it wasn''t - we''re still 20,000 strong now.  So that''s a bogus argument.And those of you who are saying "if we got relegated, we''d be in administration" - explain how getting relegated would put us in administration?  Bear in mind we would offload our high wage earners in the summer.I don''t want us to go down, but it would not kill us if we did.

[Mister Chops 7]

[quote user="city-till-i-die"][quote user="Mister Chops"]Despite crowds of 25,000, we cannot meet the cost of player signings & wages and are losing around £10k a day as a business as a result.That''s Doncaster''s view, last seen in the EDP before Christmas.He went on to say that "without wealthy supporters, we would not see Championship football."We clearly have no transfer budget and can''t compete on wages.  The bucket is empty.Now I think - and I could well be wrong - there are people at boardroom level who would be quite happy to see us relegated.  We could then balance the player budget at around £5m, against the income from ticket sales, and operate within our means... while our wealthy benefactors could hang on to their own money and not pump it into the club.  The cost for this may be League One football, but it would remove the threat of administration and/or bankruptcy.From my point of view, I would rather see Norwich City in League One than see them enter administration.  I could still see both, or neither.  But relegation, though hugely disappointing, would not be the end of the world, or the club.  If the predicted financial meltdown is going to be as imminent and severe as predicted, it could even be a saving grace.

[/quote]NO..simple as[/quote]Well that''s that sorted then.

[Glutton for Punishment 0]

[quote user="Mister Chops"]I think you''re all wrong re: ticket sales being 12-13,000.  I think we would still sell 18-19,000 season tickets in League One for the first season.  After that, people may drift away, but when we came down from the Prem everyone said "oh, that''s it then," and it wasn''t - we''re still 20,000 strong now.  So that''s a bogus argument.

And those of you who are saying "if we got relegated, we''d be in administration" - explain how getting relegated would put us in administration?  Bear in mind we would offload our high wage earners in the summer.

I don''t want us to go down, but it would not kill us if we did.

[/quote]

As another of those pesky fact driven accountants on here I can answer that one. Administration happens when the terms of a credit arrangement is broken and the creditor takes the view that it is the best chance they have of recovering the majority of money owed to them. So relegation on its own does not cause administration but the failure to comply with the terms of the securitisation deal would. A fall in gate receipts would do this although you appear to have a different opinion on the likely fan base in the third tier. The club has been fortunate to date in presiding over a period of economic growth, high disposable incomes and football being in vogue. I''m not so sure that those are conditions expected over the next couple of years.

[William Darby 0]

[quote user="Mister Chops"]I think you''re all wrong re: ticket sales being 12-13,000.  I think we would still sell 18-19,000 season tickets in League One for the first season.  After that, people may drift away, but when we came down from the Prem everyone said "oh, that''s it then," and it wasn''t - we''re still 20,000 strong now.  So that''s a bogus argument.And those of you who are saying "if we got relegated, we''d be in administration" - explain how getting relegated would put us in administration?  Bear in mind we would offload our high wage earners in the summer.I don''t want us to go down, but it would not kill us if we did.[/quote]Is that your final answer?  In one post saying everyone is wrong,  you sliced your guess-timate from 20,000 down to 18,000.

[peartreeproductions 0]

[quote user="grantroederdisaster"]It would help us get shot of Roedernowhere but that would be the only positive aspect![/quote]

You''re like a stuck record!

[ur just a man in a jacket 0]

NO.

[Yellowbeagle 0]

It would be a disaster if we cant show the fight needed to stay in this division, then what makes anyone think we''ll be any better in the division below without the couple of half decent players we currently have and even more financial problems. I cant see Croft, Clingan or Marshall wanting to play league 1 football at this stage in their careers either.

[Smudger 0]

Oh and err we would still have Mr Chops sitting on that fence getting splinters and happily making excuses for thos failing our football club and our City.

Tut, tut, tut... you should be ashamed of yourself Sir... [:$]

Oh well come this time next year you may be able to tell us why relegation to Div 2 would not be such a disaster?

[ricardo 8,034]

[quote user="Mister Chops"]I think you''re all wrong re: ticket sales being 12-13,000.  I think we would still sell 18-19,000 season tickets in League One for the first season.  After that, people may drift away, but when we came down from the Prem everyone said "oh, that''s it then," and it wasn''t - we''re still 20,000 strong now.  So that''s a bogus argument.

And those of you who are saying "if we got relegated, we''d be in administration" - explain how getting relegated would put us in administration?  Bear in mind we would offload our high wage earners in the summer.

I don''t want us to go down, but it would not kill us if we did.

[/quote]

I remember gates of 12-13000 Mr Chops. Once you lose people you don''t get them back very easily.

Believe me  mate I''ve been there and I don''t want to go there again.

[The Fish Seller 0]

[quote user="Glutton for Punishment"]

[quote user="Mister Chops"]I think you''re all wrong re: ticket sales being 12-13,000.  I think we would still sell 18-19,000 season tickets in League One for the first season.  After that, people may drift away, but when we came down from the Prem everyone said "oh, that''s it then," and it wasn''t - we''re still 20,000 strong now.  So that''s a bogus argument.And those of you who are saying "if we got relegated, we''d be in administration" - explain how getting relegated would put us in administration?  Bear in mind we would offload our high wage earners in the summer.I don''t want us to go down, but it would not kill us if we did.[/quote]

As another of those pesky fact driven accountants on here I can answer that one. Administration happens when the terms of a credit arrangement is broken and the creditor takes the view that it is the best chance they have of recovering the majority of money owed to them. So relegation on its own does not cause administration but the failure to comply with the terms of the securitisation deal would. A fall in gate receipts would do this although you appear to have a different opinion on the likely fan base in the third tier. The club has been fortunate to date in presiding over a period of economic growth, high disposable incomes and football being in vogue. I''m not so sure that those are conditions expected over the next couple of years.

[/quote]Not only are gate receipts involved in the securitisation deal but other revenues such as catering and tv money. Obviously the catering revenues will drop should match day attendances fall but Championship TV money is set to double to £2m per club next year whilst third tier tv money is expected to be around £400,000 per club. That''s another £1.6m knocked straight off the clubs income in the event of relegation. I''ve a feeling and have expressed it in detail in this forum that all is not well with the securitisation deal and we are struggling to pay it back at the agreed rate. Lose £2m''s worth of gate receipts and £1.6m''s worth of tv money next year and factor in that our securities on this deal have likely devalued significantly in the last 12 months then I can see the creditor becoming more than a little worried about their investment, worried enough to make a move I don''t know but if property values decrease by another 10-15% in 2009 it''s likely that we are not much more than 12 months away from being in negative equity as a club.

[Webbo118 0]

On the bright side, we''re probably only two or three seasons away from enjoying local derbies with King''s Lynn.